黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

2021年02月24日 11920点热度 2人点赞 2,765条评论

贵金属黄金并不能够提供股息、利息或现金流;对比而言,这使得黄金在增长前景具有吸引力、实际收益率(超出通胀的回报率)上行的环境下处于劣势;金价挣扎着攀升回到1月至2月震荡高点的下降趋势中,接下来仍未重新突破20203月和11月低点的上升趋势线(疫情上行趋势)

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

金价受困于下降趋势中

金价似乎仍未成功突破,黄金成为了所有贵金属和工业金属中表现最差的品种,或因其缺乏铜和银具有的经济吸引力。相比较而言,这使得黄金在在增长前景具有吸引力、实际收益率(超出通胀的回报率)上行的环境下处于劣势。

事实上,收益率对金价的影响很小。增加的利率改变了价值考虑、并改变了资产配置的偏好。若黄金成为对冲通胀的手段,那么英国和美国通胀预期处于数年高点将使得黄金很难以最有效的方式完成其对冲通胀的角色,尤其是投资者认为市场上还有更高潜在回报率的品种以供选择时(例如美国国债或者比特币)。

金价与黄金波动率失去同步性

从历史角度来看,黄金价格与其波动率与其他资产类别不同。尽管其他资产类别(如债券和股票)不喜波动率增加(因其暗示现金流、股息和息票支付等将面临更大不确定性)。而黄金则倾向于在波动性较高的时期受益。

黄金波动率技术分析(日线图):20202-20212

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

黄金波动率在最近几天中下滑,但或多或少比最近4个月交投在更为有利的区间中。黄金波动率GVZ (根据芝加哥期权交易所黄金波动率ETF )追踪了根据黄金期权链得到的1个月隐含波动率,目前交投在18.34附近,较2月首周录得的年度高点24.03明显下降。

黄金波动率与金价之间的5日相关系数为-0.77 ,而20日相关系数则在-0.06 。就在一周前(216日),5日相关系数为-0.75 ,而20日相关系数则是0.09。

长期财政刺激的推动在低利率环境下应利好黄金价格(类似2009-2011年),就笔者的观点而言就是这么简单。随着美国总统拜登推动其1.9万亿全部的财政刺激计划,参议院民主党具有通过大部分财政刺激计划的能力,使之成为与预算调节相对应的法律;曾在2020年帮助金价走高的财政刺激有望在2021年很快回归。

黄金价格技术分析(日线图):20202-20212

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

黄金价格从2020年低点/高点区间的50%斐波回撤水平反弹,但仍未明确突破技术水平汇集区域的强大支撑。市场因此远未受到1月和2月高点延伸而来的年内下降趋势的阻碍。金价仍交投在2015年低点/2020年高点区间的23.6%斐波回撤水平下方(1832.48一线附近),同时也与2020年低点到高点区间的38.2%斐波回撤水平相距不远(1836.97一线)。该区域可能在2月成为金价的阻力。

金价周线技术分析:2015-20212

黄金价格走势:美债收益率上行,使黄金价格的反弹更为复杂

在之前的展望中曾指出,「突破20208月和11月高点延续而来的下跌趋势、以及2020年高点/低点区间的38.2%斐波回撤水平,表明进一步升势正在开始。若金价突破1965.57一线将表明,周线图上的一系列"更低的高点和低点"已经结束。反之,若金价跌破1840一线则将表明从20203月和11月低点开始的上行趋势已经被打破,金价有可能进一步跌向1764.57一线(202011月低点)。」

散户持仓数据显示,83.60%的散户为净多头,多头与空头的持仓比为5.10:1 。净多头持仓较昨日减少12.11%,较上周减少2.03%;净空头持仓较昨日增加18.45%,较上周增加20.66%。

通常认为散户持仓数据为反向指标,散户是净多头的事实表明金价可能继续下跌。

然而,净多头持仓较昨日和上周均有减少。近期的情绪变化暗示,尽管散户仍为净多头,但当前金价走势可能很快反转走高。

 

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  • Williamfitte

    Director Jon M. Chu missed ‘Wicked’ premiere to welcome fifth child
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    It’s widely known as Japan’s eyeglasses capital – and for good reason. Sabae produces over 90% of the frames manufactured in the country, according to the local government. Signs and objects shaped like eyeglasses can be found on city streets, and there’s even a museum and festival devoted to spectacles.
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    Along the way, the city has developed one of the world’s most beautiful metro systems, grown into a thriving banking and finance center, complemented its vintage bazaars with luxury boutiques and modern shopping malls and reshaped its traditional gastronomy into a nouvelle cuisine that’s drawing raves from foodies around the world.

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    “It’s an incredibly livable city,” says long-time American resident Dennis Keen, a historic preservation advocate and founder of Walking Almaty.

    “Green and clean. You don’t need a car. The public transit here is fantastic. And it’s very much the center of contemporary art and dining in Central Asia.”

    Keen adds that whenever he tells someone back home that he lives in Kazakhstan, “Borat” inevitably comes up. The movie’s title character doesn’t paint a very flattering portrait of the Central Asian nation. But nowadays one is tempted to think that if Borat visited Almaty now, he would say, “Very nice!”

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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

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    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

    Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.

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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

    Ten people endured non-life-threatening injuries from the Mountain Fire, which are mostly related to smoke inhalation, Ventura County Sheriff Jim Fryhoff said.

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    The couple were hosting two guests at the time, but because their guests worked late, Morin suspected they slept through the residence’s fire alarms.

    “I run in the house, and I’m banging on the door, and they did not hear me. They were knocked out,” Morin told CNN. “Get the dog. Get out of here. You don’t have time, just get out!” she recalled telling them.
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    Ten minutes later, Dave noticed sparks in their backyard. The temperature was also picking up.

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    Dozens of homes in California’s Ventura County were set alight in a sweeping wildfire that burned through thousands of acres of land in just a matter of hours midweek –– prompting authorities to send more than 14,000 evacuation notices across the region.

    The Mountain Fire began early Wednesday and was driven by winds gusting over 60 mph. The flames have seared through more than 20,485 acres of land, according to Cal Fire.

    The families who evacuated at a moment’s notice, some who say they have now lost their homes, must deal with other losses that can also be devastating, from daily essentials like medications and shoes to meaningful possessions such as sculptures and artwork, to treasured keepsakes from the birth of a child or the life of a parent.

    At least 132 properties have been destroyed by the fire, while 88 have been left damaged, Ventura County Fire Department officials said Thursday evening. Ten damage inspection teams have been deployed to inspect structures along the path of the blaze.

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    2024年11月13日
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    Nowhere is this coffeehouse culture more pronounced, and celebrated, than in Dearborn, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit and home to one of the largest Arab American communities in the United States.

    Downtown Dearborn is peppered with different Yemeni coffee houses, which Howell said helped revitalize the Detroit area after the city became the largest municipality go to bankrupt in 2013. And it’s only growing.

    “It’s become sort of contagious,” Howell said. “Several Yemeni entrepreneurs are opening coffee houses of their own, each with its own sort of style and atmosphere.”

    The coffee chains have big ambitions beyond Dearborn. Qahwah House hopes to open another 20 to 30 locations in the next year, spanning across 12 states and Canada, Alhasbani said. They are also licensed out, but Alhasbani says he sets a high standard before agreeing to let anyone open a shop.

    “We have too many people that come (asking me) they want to open. I have more than 10 different requests a day just to open this kind of business,” he said. “We don’t give anyone license until we make sure the person has the love for the brand and his mind and his heart in the Qahwah House.”
    Another authentic Yemeni coffee chain, Haraz, also sees crowds of people throughout the day and night. They opened their first location in New York City last week — less than half a mile away from Qahwah House’s downtown Manhattan shop — and the franchisees plan to grow.

    2024年11月14日
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    The 21-year-old, a competitive dancer, entrepreneur, and aspiring lawyer, beat more than 120 other contestants to win the annual beauty pageant in Mexico City on Saturday night.

    She was applauded by other contestants on stage as she accepted the tiara from reigning titleholder Sheynnis Palacios of Nicaragua.

    This year’s finale featured a performance by singer Robin Thicke and was hosted by “Saved by the Bell” star Mario Lopez and former Miss Universe Olivia Culpo.

    The glitzy pageant began with contestants being narrowed down to a shortlist of 30, based on the results of Thursday’s preliminary event, which included a flamboyant national costume contest. The semi-finalists then paraded in swimwear, before 12 of them advanced to an evening gown contest.
    When later asked what she would say to those watching, Theilvig urged viewers to “keep fighting … no matter where you come from.”

    “I stand here today because I want a change, I want to make history, and that’s what I’m doing tonight,” she said.

    Chidimma Adetshina of Nigeria finished as first runner-up and Maria Fernanda Beltran of Mexico was named second runner-up. Suchata Chuangsri of Thailand and Ileana Marquez Pedroza of Venezuela followed – with Pedroza, a 28-year-old mother, making history in the top five after the competition removed several restrictions in recent years.

    This year marked the first time in Miss Universe’s 72-year history that women aged over 28 were permitted to enter. More than two dozen of the finalists were older than would have been allowed in previous years, with Malta’s Beatrice Njoya becoming the first and only woman in her 40s to reach the grand finale.

    2024年11月20日
  • Jamestum

    Фонд по отъему народных денег

    Почему государство кошмарит народный кооператив «Бест Вей»

    Приморским районным судом Санкт-Петербурга рассматривается уголовное дело, связываемое следствием с компаниями «Лайф-из-Гуд», «Гермес» и кооперативом «Бест Вей», параллельно судами Санкт-Петербурга рассматривается дело о законности кооператива «Бест Вей» – оба разбирательства очень далеки от завершения.

    За преследованиями кооператива правоохранительными органами стоит Фонд по защите вкладчиков и акционеров. Он представляется как государственный фонд – хотя давным-давно лишен государственного финансирования, и изначально он зарегистрирован по указу алкоголика Ельцина, принесенному мутными персонами, которые вокруг него ошивались, как общественно-государственный. Если нет госфинансирования, значит, фонд должен быть негосударственным. Но он частично сохраняет государственный статус, при этом существует без контроля со стороны федеральных ведомств.

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    Но некий административный статус у фонда, видимо, остался – учитывая, что его в августе возглавил Валерий Лях, который долгое время – до своего бегства из страны с началом СВО – возглавлял Департамент противодействия недобросовестным практикам ЦБ РФ (департамент этот Набиуллина ликвидировала из-за заказных включений этим департаментом компаний и организаций в предупредительный список ЦБ).

    Ремарка: Лях по-прежнему, судя по всему, не в России – и руководит Фондом по защите прав вкладчиков и акционеров из-за рубежа, иначе как объяснить его систематическую неявку на суд по уголовному делу, в котором он является свидетелем? Кстати, Прокуратура Санкт-Петербурга проявляет к нему удивительную деликатность, отказываясь обеспечить его привод в суд – не потому ли, что Лях как хочет вертит прокуратурой, по крайней мере прокуратурой Северной столицы, и она фактически выполняет его заказ?

    Фонд пытается отобрать активы на 16 млрд рублей у 20 тыс. пайщиков – при этом все, в том числе так называемые потерпевшие по уголовному делу, получат от фонда не более 35 тыс. рублей! Это черным по белому записано в уставе фонда и многократно подтверждено его сотрудниками. Фонд живет за счет отнятых у организаций денег – он не станет делиться ни с кем, кроме коррумпированных правоохранителей, которые помогают ему отобрать деньги у честных людей!

    Очевидна связь фонда с атаками на кооператив «Бест Вей», которая была заметна задолго до уголовного дела. Фонд от своего имени, на своем сайте, не имеющем лицензии СМИ, публиковал хейтерские статьи о кооперативе.

    Хейтеры – сообщники рейдеров

    Потом были созданы высокобюджетные хейтерские телеграм-канал и сайт, причем работающие в теснейшей связке с бригадой гособвинителей из питерской прокуратуры – публикующие в реальном времени информацию из уголовного дела: только выступил свидетель – и в течение часа появляется документ из уголовного дела. Хейтерскими ресурсами занимаются, в частности, Михаил Степанов и Белла Кесельман, подробная информация о которых готовится к публикации.

    Гособвинители даже публиковали там свои телефоны – для оперативного консультирования выступающих в суде со стороны обвинения: госуслуги на высшем уровне!

    То есть государство срастается с бандитской организацией, обслуживающей частные интересы Ляха и его партнеров. Имена всех хейтеров установлены!

    Малиновская – шестерка коррупционеров

    На этой же стороне выступила судья по гражданским делам Приморского районного суда Малиновская – которая просто подмахнула иск прокуратуры о признании кооператива незаконным, фактически без разбирательства: борьба с этим иском предстоит теперь в Санкт-Петербургском городском суде, в который поступит не только жалоба кооператива, но и тысячи жалоб со стороны пайщиков кооператива, законные интересы которых в нарушение ГК и ГПК не были учтены при рассмотрении этого иска.

    Судья Малиновская помогает обворовывать народ. Малиновская, ущемляя интересы народа, отбирая активы у кооператива и жилье у граждан, провоцирует дестабилизацию в стране. И справляется с этим блестяще! Она пытается отобрать у людей жилье и накопления в народном кооперативе. У военных, фронтовиков, семей фронтовиков!

    Она отбирает жилье у честных людей. Ущемляет военных, которые создали кооператив «Бест Вей» и вошли в него со своими семьями. Тем самым подрывает веру в президента, который наделил ее полномочиями.

    Государство и народ

    Государство, выступая от имени народа, на самом деле грабит этот самый народ. Фонд Ляха и его ручные хейтеры устраивают все так, что народ и компании они обворовывают с помощью народного государства, прокуратурой и судьями которого они манипулируют, чтобы они помогали Ляху грабить народ.

    Организаторам атаки на кооператив, использующим государственные институты в личных интересах, следует иметь в виду вот что. Нет ничего страшнее народа, доведенного до отчаяния беспредельными полицейскими, продажными прокурорами и несправедливыми судьями!

    Нет ничего страшнее униженных людей, у которых отобрали накопления и жилье, которым уже нечего терять. Они дойдут до высших инстанций и добьются того, что их мнение будет услышано!

    2024年11月20日
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    Ни для кого не является секретом, что каждый человек любит провести своё свободное время не только с пользой для себя и для здоровья, но и забыв о всех тяготах будних дней. А с помощью нашего сайта вы приблизитесь к своей мечте на ещё один шаг, потому что:

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    Признанный следствием потерпевшим Шахмин — пенсионер МВД. Лично с подсудимыми не знаком, но на презентациях видел.

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    Когда начались трудности, хотели через систему "Свифт" вывести, через "Тинькофф" — но это не получилось: "Начали они просить, чтобы никто из клиентов не возмущался, начали говорить о регистрации на криптобирже "Бинанс" для дальнейшего вывода денег. Также я там зарегистрировался, но тоже ничего не получилось".

    После этого Шахмин написал заявление в полицию. Всплывшие в ходе судебного заседания три личных кабинета в "Лайф-из-Гуд" и переводы ему на карту объяснить не смог.

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    "Узнала о компании в 2016 году при переезде из Москвы во Владимир. Рассказали консультанты Адрианова и Волюшко, которые занимались страхованием жизни. Рассказывали и о ПК "Бест Вей", но мне это было неинтересно. Адрианова знала, что я продала квартиру и денежки у меня есть. Зная это, консультант целенаправленно решила затащить в компанию "Гермес". И я стала очередной жертвой. Мне сказали, что Андрианова занималась гипнозом. Отношения дружеские были до 2021 года. Андрианова была вхожа в дом, знакома с мужем. Деньги передавала Андриановой. Было открыто три счета" — рассказала Дорда. Признанная потерпевшей утверждает, что деньги ни разу не снимала.

    Заявляет ущерб в более 700 тыс. рублей.

    Признанная следствием потерпевшей Шайхулина (допрошенная по ВКС с Самарой) — клиент компании "Гермес". Из подсудимых знает Виктора Ивановича Василенко и Наливана.

    "Первый договор с "Гермесом" заключила в 2019 году, второй — в 2021 году. Внесла 1 тыс. евро. Договоры скачивала с кабинета, отдала наличными 70 тыс. руб. В личный кабинет сама заходить могла, но переводить не было возможности. Обещали плавающий процент от 20% в год. Второй счет открыла на 1 тыс. евро. Переводила частным лицам небольшие суммы. Деньги на счету появлялись согласно переводам. Без помощи консультанта Духнова выводить не получалось. "Гермес" свои обязательства исполнял, начисляли проценты, ажио брали. Я сама не вникала, но видела, что каждый месяц начисления были. В кабинет заходила раз в месяц. В последний раз в кабинет заходила накануне заявления в органы. Потом его заблокировали", — говорит она.

    "С официальной претензией в "Гермес" обращалась, в поддержку писала. Ответили, что ведутся работы, скоро откроют. Актов сверки с "Гермесом" нет у меня, в гражданско-правовом порядке за возвратом денег не обращалась, ни с какими юристами не общалась. Наткнулась на канал в интернете — там был совет писать заявление в правоохранительные органы", — добавляет она.

    Заявляет общую сумму ущерба в 2 430 430 руб.: "Я взяла кредит, плачу теперь проценты, поэтому эту сумму процентов хочу получить". При этом в материалах уголовного дела фигурирует сумма в 1 650 000 руб. ущерба.

    Шайхуллина поясняет, что "забыла про 800 тыс., так как мне карту перевели 900 тыс. Духнов сказал: "Они у тебя будут лежать, давай обратно внесем", и я внесла 850 тыс. где-то. Я только что вспомнила про 800 тыс.".

    2024年11月24日
  • Louisfrevy

    <a href=https://t.me/s/dostavka_moscow>доставка алкоголя в москве на дом недорого</a>

    2024年11月25日
  • Julianorerb

    Italy’s working visas are notoriously hard to get. We spoke to Americans who managed it
    <a href=https://varkotel-sfera.ru>котел для варки начинок</a>
    The Italian village offering $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result was one of our top stories on CNN Travel this week.

    Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.

    Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.

    California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.

    For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
    Ham, cheese and bread
    Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.

    Over in the world of dairy, this year’s World Cheese Awards saw 4,786 cheeses from 47 countries assembled in the Portuguese city of Viseu to face judges’ scrutiny. The winning coagulated curd was a “voluptuous … match of protein and fat,” one juror said.

    Finally, in the disputed Kashmir region of India, bakers are producing breads that could rival France. The rich bread culture is a legacy of the Silk Road trade route that once passed through the region.

    2024年11月25日
  • RichardGed

    Italy’s working visas are notoriously hard to get. We spoke to Americans who managed it
    <a href=https://varkotel-sfera.ru>котел для варки табака</a>
    The Italian village offering $1 homes to Americans upset by the US election result was one of our top stories on CNN Travel this week.

    Like many other places in rural Italy (such as Sambuca in Sicily), the Sardinian village of Ollolai has an ongoing campaign to persuade outsiders to move there to revive the town’s fortunes. Focusing on the US election result is its latest strategy.

    Despite all the houses going on offer, working visas to Italy are still very limited. Professional musicians Zeneba Bowers and Matt Walker gave up their Tennessee home in 2019 and moved to a village north of Rome after securing super-rare self-employed visas. Here’s how they did it.

    California woman Chelsea Waite says it was “nothing less than a miracle” when she snagged the new digital nomad visa that launched in April 2024, although there have been few accounts of people getting hold of one. Here’s how it fell into place for the self-employed public relations professional.

    For well-heeled Americans who set their sights beyond Italy, the options are greater. Interest in citizenship-by-investment “golden visas” has soared since the election, according to consultants who help the wealthy migrate.
    Ham, cheese and bread
    Parma ham is one of Italy’s tastiest exports, but fans of the cured delicacy should prepare themselves for potential disappointment as a crisis threatens supplies and drives up prices.

    Over in the world of dairy, this year’s World Cheese Awards saw 4,786 cheeses from 47 countries assembled in the Portuguese city of Viseu to face judges’ scrutiny. The winning coagulated curd was a “voluptuous … match of protein and fat,” one juror said.

    Finally, in the disputed Kashmir region of India, bakers are producing breads that could rival France. The rich bread culture is a legacy of the Silk Road trade route that once passed through the region.

    2024年11月25日
  • RobertCrave

    Groundbreaking telescope reveals first piece of new cosmic map
    <a href=https://kr13at.cc>kraken сайт</a>
    Greetings, earthlings! I’m Jackie Wattles, and I’m thrilled to be a new name bringing awe to your inbox.

    I’ve covered space exploration for nearly a decade at CNN, and there has never been a more exciting time to follow space and science discoveries. As researchers push forward to explore and understand the cosmos, advancements in technology are sparking rapid developments in rocketry, astronomical observatories and a multitude of scientific instruments.

    Look no further than the missions racing to unlock dark matter and the mysterious force known as dark energy, both so named precisely because science has yet to explain these phenomena.
    https://kr13at.cc
    кракен
    Astronomers have never detected dark matter, but they believe it makes up about 85% of the total matter in the universe. Meanwhile, the existence of dark energy helps researchers explain why the universe is expanding — and why that expansion is speeding up.
    Extraordinary new scientific instruments are churning out trailblazing data, ready to reshape how scientists view the cosmos.

    A prime example is the European Space Agency’s wide-angle Euclid telescope that launched in 2023 to investigate the riddles of dark energy and dark matter.

    Euclid this week delivered the first piece of a cosmic map — containing about 100 million stars and galaxies — that will take six years to create.

    These stunning 3D observations may help scientists see how dark matter warps light and curves space across galaxies.

    Meanwhile, on a mountaintop in northern Chile, the US National Science Foundation and Stanford University researchers are preparing to power up the world’s largest digital camera inside the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

    2024年11月26日