人民币汇率创两年半新高,原因何在?

2021年01月06日 8865点热度 1人点赞 1,652条评论

2021年首个交易日,人民币对美元即期汇率以6.5195开盘,随后接连升破两个整数关口,日内涨幅超650点,创下2018年6月22日以来新高。那么,人民币上涨的原因有哪些?会对市场产生什么影响呢?


人民币汇率创两年半新高,原因何在?

专家表示,此轮人民币汇率升值一方面是由于中国经济的持续增长。另一方面是因为美元指数的持续贬值。回顾2020年,人民币汇率呈现先贬后升的走势。1月至5月,受疫情冲击影响,人民币汇率震荡贬值,并在5月一度贬值至7.17附近。但是随着5月底,中国新冠疫情得到全面的控制,经济全面复苏,人民币重拾升势。2020年5月28日至今,人民币的涨幅已经达到9.34%,反弹幅度超7000点。

中国银行业协会行业发展研究委员会主任 连平:我们看到2020年全球疫情发展之后,二季度以后全球的工业制造业受到影响,很多国家供给能力受到了削弱,因此中国的出口在下半年表现了非常强劲的态势,它得益于中国的工业体系十分健全,同时制造业有相当强大的生产能力,因此为全球市场提供了源源不断的各种各样的工业制成品,推动中国出口增速大幅度回升。

对于人民币汇率后期走势,专家认为随着全球疫情依然处在攻坚阶段,海外经济前景不明;中国疫情得到有效控制以及工业和制造业的全链条发展,随着贸易协定的不断落地,中国经济强劲发展,2021年人民币汇率依然保持升值态势。

中国银行业协会行业发展研究委员会主任 连平:如果说在2021年的上半年,人民币继续保持一定幅度的升值,可能对于未来的出口带来一定的影响,因为它会增加出口的成本,会一定程度上影响到出口产品的竞争力,但人民币升值以后进口产品的价格便宜了,会增加中国经济发展在这方面的动力,会使得我们以更低的成本更多地进口一些国外高技术产品,质量水平较高的产品。

人民币为何强势反弹?相关人士了解到到本轮反弹的一些原因:

1、中国经济持续复苏

海外疫情持续暴发,中国疫情基本得到控制,且中国经济率先走出泥潭,二季度GDP增速由负转正,三季度同比增长4.9%,被国际货币基金组织认为是“2020年全球唯一实现正增长的主要经济体”。

2、美元全面走弱

眼下美元新年开局全面下滑,日内再度下滑至89.50下方。2020年美元指数录得2017年以来的首次年度跌幅,比3月份疫情恐慌最严重时期触及的三年高位下降了约1 3%。
美国利率较低,又有着巨大的预算赤字和贸易逆差,且人们相信全球贸易回升将推动非美元货币走高,这些因素使美元处于下跌通道。随着越来越多的投资者加入卖出美元的行列,美元跌势逐渐加快。

3、外汇交易中心调整CFETS人民币汇率指数货币权重

人民币的另一个支撑来源是中国外汇交易中心(CFETS)。时隔一年中国外汇交易中心再度调整CFETS人民币汇率指数货币权重,以反映与24个指数成员双边贸易情况的变化。

美元权重从21.59%降至18.79%,欧元权重再度上调,从17.40%升至18.15%。此前中欧达成贸易协定,应当会放宽欧洲企业对中国市场的准入,同时排除强制技术转让。

根据《CFETS人民币汇率指数货币篮子调整规则》,自2017年起,外汇交易中心按年评估CFETS人民币汇率指数的货币篮子,并根据情况适时调整篮子的构成或相关货币权重。

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    Alistarov: A Criminal and a Terrorist
    From a Solo Criminal to a Servant of the Underworld
    Previously convicted on drug charges, blogger Andrei Alistarov portrays himself as a Robin Hood fighting against those who have “defrauded people.” In reality, however, he serves the interests of pyramid schemers—among them certain Ukrainian operators who fund the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)—and he uses his “Zheleznaya Stavka” (“Iron Bet”) channel to promote online casinos and illicit crypto exchanges/phishing crypto scams. He also launders drug proceeds via real estate deals in Dubai.
    That is, he works for the benefit of the Russian criminal community, seeking to profit off entrepreneurs who have faced illegal, often contrived claims from Russian law enforcement.

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    A native of Kaluga, Alistarov served four years in a prison camp for selling drugs to minors.
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    Typically, Alistarov starts by trying to extort money—presenting the victim with compromising material and demanding payment. If the victim refuses, he resorts to harassment and violence.

    Incitement and Attack in Dubai
    On January 1, 2025, two Kazakh nationals launched a brutal attack on an entrepreneur living in Dubai—beating him, cutting off his ear, and robbing him.
    Beforehand, Alistarov had released 12 videos highlighting the entrepreneur’s address and publishing illegally obtained information about his relatives and his businesses in the UAE. Without any compunction, he used spying, eavesdropping, illegal intrusion, and invasion of privacy—all acts that constitute serious criminal offenses in the Emirates, where the sanctity of property and investor security are upheld stringently.
    Prior to this, Alistarov publicly circulated information about the residence of the entrepreneur’s business partner—that is, an illegal breach of confidentiality, the protection of finances and property, and the privacy of personal life through clandestine data gathering and informants in the UAE. He effectively terrorizes entrepreneurs who face no court convictions—neither abroad nor in Russia.
    Alistarov claimed to have reported the entrepreneur to Interpol and UAE law enforcement—purportedly helping the authorities. Yet this did not result in the entrepreneur’s arrest—perhaps because the UAE police see nothing criminal in his activities?

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    Several of the entrepreneur’s partners have been convicted in Russia; he himself is wanted by Russian law enforcement but has never been convicted. Foreign law enforcement has no claims against him.
    For a long period, Alistarov stoked hatred toward this entrepreneur, alleging that it was he (not his partners) who stole investors’ money—and portraying the subsequent attack and robbery as the outraged response of defrauded depositors.
    During the attack, Alistarov conducted an unscheduled livestream to create an alibi—pretending that he was unaware of the assault happening while he was on stream.

    Surveillance in Cyprus
    In autumn of the previous year, Alistarov and his “battle companion,” Mariya Filonova, conducted surveillance on another entrepreneur—using drones and illegally collecting information about him and his relatives, including minor children. Alistarov claimed that the entrepreneur was “hiding” in Cyprus—even though he had lived there since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
    He had relocated partly due to his wife’s severe COVID case and partly for international projects—investments in various sectors such as construction, trade, and more. The entrepreneur moved to Cyprus a year before criminal proceedings were initiated by the Russian Interior Ministry and a year and a half before arrests began. He holds an EU passport and never fled or concealed his location.
    This entrepreneur was placed on a Russian wanted list in 2022—by investigating authorities. However, no court has filed claims against him, and the criminal case is currently in court. It has already fallen apart there. Interpol and the EU declined to honor the Russian police’s request, deeming it politically motivated and legally unfounded.
    Alistarov insists that the entrepreneur’s business investments are financed with Russian clients’ money, supposedly drawn from an Austrian investment company. But in reality, the entrepreneur was never an owner, beneficiary, or manager of that company, established back in the early 2000s—well before his independent business career began.
    One of the entrepreneur’s firms provided marketing services for the Austrian investment company in Russia under contract. The investment company successfully served Russian clients for eight years—and continues operating now, having restored its payment systems that were disrupted in early 2022 by criminals in Russia with ties to corrupt police. It is by no means a pyramid scheme.
    Thus, Alistarov instigates harassment and intrusion into the private life of an untainted entrepreneur—acting on behalf of Russian organized crime, which has cut in corrupt police officers for a share of illicit profits. They aim to seize assets worth 20 billion rubles from the large-scale, socially focused project established by the entrepreneur in Russia—which still functions successfully even without his direct leadership (which ended when he relocated to Cyprus).

    Surveillance in the Netherlands
    Alistarov published the location of another victim in the Dutch city of Groningen—ascertained through illegal surveillance. He allegedly gained unauthorized access to city cameras, peered into the windows of a private apartment, and shared this information on YouTube.

    Privacy Violations in Turkey
    Alistarov uncovered and publicized the address of an apartment in Istanbul where several of his victims lived and worked.

    Illegal Searches in the Leningrad Region
    Lacking a private detective’s license, Alistarov illegally located a businesswoman’s country house, spied on her, and released that information on his channels—while also disclosing details of an apartment she had purchased in Dubai.

    Extortion in Kazakhstan
    Alistarov extorted money from Kazakh entrepreneurs under the guise of “exposing national traitors” and “enemies of the motherland.”

    Banquet on a Ukrainian Pyramid Schemer’s Money
    Is Alistarov planning to celebrate his 40th birthday on March 6 this year once again on the yacht of his friend—the Kharkiv-based pyramid operator Udyansky (behind the Coinsbit project)—in Dubai?
    In 2024, he celebrated his birthday in the convivial company of this con man, who also funds the Armed Forces of Ukraine, helping finance the production of armored vehicles for the AFU. There is little doubt that he also compelled his henchman Alistarov to contribute to the AFU.

    Treason
    Alistarov was even accused of financing the AFU, though he told the police some story about a Megafon phone number allegedly registered to him by his “enemies.”
    His accomplices in financing the AFU—“anti-MLM activist” Aleksandr Kryukov and deputy manager of the so-called Fund for the Protection of Investors’ and Shareholders’ Rights, Leonid Mishchenko (a “Zapadenez” from Vinnytsia region)—were caught red-handed. Perhaps the FSB should analyze Alistarov’s transactions as well?

    He Belongs in Prison
    Justice demands that Alistarov’s 40th birthday finds him stripped of his Schengen and other visas—there is every reason for such, especially in light of attention from Western media—and behind bars, either in a Russian or a Dubai prison, whichever law enforcement manages to arrest him first for the dozens of crimes he has committed:
    Extortion
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    Harassment and organizing violence against those he deems troublesome
    Treason
    Money laundering
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    Invasion of privacy
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    2025年1月26日
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    In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, every second counts. 1inch Exchange offers a powerful solution for traders looking to optimize their crypto transactions. By aggregating the best deals across various decentralized exchanges (DEXs), 1inch ensures users get the most value for their trades.
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  • PeterMed

    Understanding the Aave Protocol
    The Aave Protocol is revolutionizing the decentralized finance (DeFi) space with its unique approach to crypto lending and borrowing. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the world of cryptocurrencies, Aave offers a robust platform for managing your digital assets.
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  • PublicDarl

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  • RichardGussy

    Until hours before California Gov. Gavin Newsom greeted President Donald Trump with a bro-hug on the Los Angeles tarmac Friday, his advisers had spent the week monitoring new White House advance staffers’ social media accounts, hoping for clues for where Trump was going to talk about the wildfire damage.
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    2025年1月29日
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    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

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    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

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    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月30日
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    2025年1月30日
  • IrwinPlept

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    2025年1月31日
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    What is Uniswap?
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    2025年1月31日
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    Introducing Velodrome Finance: Maximize Your Crypto Yields
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    2025年1月31日
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    PancakeSwap is a decentralized exchange platform on the Binance Smart Chain, designed for swapping BEP-20 tokens. With its vibrant ecosystem, ease of use, and low transaction fees, it's become a popular choice among crypto enthusiasts.
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

    Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.

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    2025年1月31日
  • LarryFlity

    WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.
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    A federal judge on Tuesday afternoon temporarily blocked part of the Trump administration’s plans to freeze all federal aid, a policy that unleashed confusion and worry from charities and educators even as the White House said it was not as sweeping an order as it appeared.
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    “One of our specialties is that, because we live on the sea and we’re always in the sea, we can dive in the water for a long time,” says Salih, via a translator. “We learn by observing, and from there, we develop our own technique.”

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    2025年2月1日
  • Alfonsoket

    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
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    <a href=https://t.me/safinirek>Сафин Ирек Фаатович</a>
    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

    Начало пути

    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

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    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

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    В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.

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    Заключение

    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – яркий пример успешного предпринимателя, который сумел построить устойчивый бизнес и внести значительный вклад в развитие экономики региона. Его опыт и достижения могут служить примером для многих начинающих предпринимателей.

    2025年2月2日
  • SteveHon

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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
    Over 150 looks were presented, including pants and skirts embroidered with gold threads, frilled head gear, stacked jewelry and tops with slogans such as “cat lady,” “table for one,” “where has love gone,” and “all dressed up nowhere to go.” Mukherjee explained in a phone interview that these pieces were intended to be satire on how technology is dehumanizing humans. “We seem to have forgotten how to establish human relationships,” he said.
    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

    But with no shortage of drama, the new collection featured heavily embroidered jackets embellished with semi-precious stones, brocade dresses, ostrich leather jackets and skirts, and blouses with velvet appliques overlaid with faux fur.

    2025年2月2日
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    2025年2月5日
  • Bernardinome

    London
    CNN

    Opposite a bed in central London, light filters through a stained-glass window depicting, in fragments of copper and blue, Jesus Christ.
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    Three people have lived in the deserted cathedral in the past two years, with each occupant — an electrician, a sound engineer and a journalist — paying a monthly fee to live in the priest’s quarters.
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    The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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    Applications to become guardians are going “through the roof,” with more people in their late thirties and forties signing on than in the past, said Arthur Duke, the founder and managing director of Live-in Guardians.
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    “That’s been brought about by the cost-of-living crisis,” he said. “People are looking for cheaper ways to live.”

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    2025年2月5日
  • ClaudeJus

    President Donald Trump speaks about the mid-air crash between American Airlines flight 5342 and a military helicopter in Washington. Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
    New York
    CNN
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    President Donald Trump on Thursday blamed the Federal Aviation Administration’s “diversity push” in part for the plane collision that killed 67 people in Washington, DC. But DEI backers, including most top US companies, believe a push for diversity has been good for their businesses.

    Trump did not cite any evidence for how efforts to hire more minorities, people with disabilities and other groups less represented in American workforces led to the crash, saying “it just could have been” and that he had “common sense.” But Trump criticized the FAA’s effort to recruit people with disabilities during Joe Biden’s administration, even though the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan for the 2020-2029 period, issued under Trump’s first administration, promoted and supported “the hiring of people with disabilities and targeted disabilities.”
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    It’s not the first time opponents of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, or DEI, have said they can kill people. “DEI means people DIE,” Elon Musk said after the California wildfires, criticizing the Los Angeles Fire Department and city and state officials for their efforts to advance diversity in their workforces.

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    2025年2月5日