
美元升值压抑主要亚币走势,瑞银财富管理投资总监表示,亚太货币虽因美元升值翻贬,但仍看好亚太市场经济复苏力道可望支撑亚币重启升势,尤其看好人民币走势,预估未来12个月总回报预期接近5%。
瑞银也下调亚太货币升值预期,原因在于美国公债殖利率飙涨,导致流入亚太市场资金缩手,下调亚太货币未来12 个月现货汇率的平均升值预期,从中个位数降至2% 到3% 。
瑞银指出,美国实际利率走强不代表亚太货币就会贬值,从过去15 年数据来看,美国升息与亚太货币升值也可能同时存在,关键就在于亚太经济持续复苏成长。
根据瑞银预估,主要亚币未来12个月季度经济年增幅5.7%,且亚太货币的上行趋势保持不变,主要原因包括,大规模财政刺激措施只会让美国的经济复苏步伐短暂领先其他国家,美国财政及经常帐户赤字恶化,中期来看将对美元构成下行压力。
瑞银表示,不少亚太地区央行去年起分别透过增加外汇准备金压抑货币升值,即便经常帐户盈余开始下降,但随着国内经济复苏,央行对于汇率升值态度也相对开放,尤其是新加坡、泰国及马来西亚等以出口导向的东协国家。

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A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.
Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.
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Storms like Yagi are “getting stronger due to climate change, primarily because warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel the storms, leading to increased wind speeds and heavier rainfall,” said Benjamin Horton, director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
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