美元升势压抑?瑞银看好经济复苏支撑亚币续升

2021年03月18日 17419点热度 0人点赞 3,489条评论

美元升势压抑?瑞银看好经济复苏支撑亚币续升

美元升值压抑主要亚币走势,瑞银财富管理投资总监表示,亚太货币虽因美元升值翻贬,但仍看好亚太市场经济复苏力道可望支撑亚币重启升势,尤其看好人民币走势,预估未来12个月总回报预期接近5%。

瑞银也下调亚太货币升值预期,原因在于美国公债殖利率飙涨,导致流入亚太市场资金缩手,下调亚太货币未来12 个月现货汇率的平均升值预期,从中个位数降至2% 到3% 。

瑞银指出,美国实际利率走强不代表亚太货币就会贬值,从过去15 年数据来看,美国升息与亚太货币升值也可能同时存在,关键就在于亚太经济持续复苏成长。

根据瑞银预估,主要亚币未来12个月季度经济年增幅5.7%,且亚太货币的上行趋势保持不变,主要原因包括,大规模财政刺激措施只会让美国的经济复苏步伐短暂领先其他国家,美国财政及经常帐户赤字恶化,中期来看将对美元构成下行压力。

瑞银表示,不少亚太地区央行去年起分别透过增加外汇准备金压抑货币升值,即便经常帐户盈余开始下降,但随着国内经济复苏,央行对于汇率升值态度也相对开放,尤其是新加坡、泰国及马来西亚等以出口导向的东协国家。


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