美债空头激增 债市的平静很快将被打破

2021年04月07日 8176点热度 0人点赞 2,065条评论

美国国债收益率最近一直在疫情前的高点附近徘徊,投资者们开始押注这种平静持很快就会被打破。

IHS Markit Ltd.的数据显示,规模140亿美元的iShares 20+美国国债ETF(TLT)的空头份额已经攀升至总发行量的约五分之一,为2017年初以来的最高值。该基金今年迄今下跌了13%,2021年初的空头头寸为7%,如今已有所上升。

虽然债券抛售似乎已经趋于稳定,美国30年期国债收益率最近的大部分时间里都在2.4%附近徘徊,但空头激增表明,投资者预计这种平静不会持续太久。

信安环球投资(Principal Global Investors)表示,在市场对经济增长前景重新定价之后,美债收益率已经出现了明显的波动,随着越来越多的经济数据出炉,美债收益率的剧烈波动可能会卷土重来。

信安环球投资的首席策略师西马·沙阿(Seema Shah)表示:

“这段平静期可能不会持续太长。我们预计今年投资者将要不断应对更高的通胀和经济增长。每公布一个强劲的经济或通胀数据,都将再次牵动着投资者的神经,从而推高波动率。”

美债空头激增 债市的平静很快将被打破

到目前为止,投资者已从TLT中撤资近26亿美元,这可能是该基金2002年成立以来资金流出最大的一年。经济增长预期上调以及通胀预期攀升,让TLT和规模为400亿美元的投资级企业债ETF(LQD)等长期基金受挫,上周LQD刚录得单日最大资金外流

衡量美国债券波动性的MOVE指数已从2月底的76回落至约62。理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司(Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC)表示,虽然债券市场在强劲的经济数据公布后处于持稳状态,但无论之后的经济数据表现如何,债券市场都会发生波动。

该公司固定收益主管和投资组合经理迈克尔·康托普洛斯(Michael Contopoulos)表示:

“美国国债在很大程度上反映了当前的疫情刺激措施、基建法案和经济复苏。下一阶段需要关注的数据是实际通胀率,而不仅仅是经济复苏的数据。在今年和2022年期间,我们预计会看到更高的波动性以及更高的利率

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    Индивидуальный предприниматель Сафин Ирек Фаатович

    Введение
    <a href=https://t.me/safinirek>ИП Сафин Ирек Фаатович</a>
    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

    Начало пути

    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

    Первые шаги в бизнесе

    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

    Расширение бизнеса

    В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.

    Социальная ответственность

    Одним из важных аспектов деятельности Ирека Сафина является социальная ответственность. Он активно участвует в благотворительных проектах, поддерживает образовательные учреждения и спортивные мероприятия. Кроме того, он уделяет большое внимание экологии и внедряет экологически чистые технологии в своем производстве.

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    Ирек Сафин известен своим трудолюбием, ответственностью и стремлением к совершенству. Он всегда ставит перед собой высокие цели и стремится их достичь. Его принципами являются честность, открытость и уважение к партнерам и клиентам. Эти качества помогли ему завоевать доверие и уважение в деловом сообществе.

    Заключение

    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – яркий пример успешного предпринимателя, который сумел построить устойчивый бизнес и внести значительный вклад в развитие экономики региона. Его опыт и достижения могут служить примером для многих начинающих предпринимателей.

    2025年2月2日
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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
    Over 150 looks were presented, including pants and skirts embroidered with gold threads, frilled head gear, stacked jewelry and tops with slogans such as “cat lady,” “table for one,” “where has love gone,” and “all dressed up nowhere to go.” Mukherjee explained in a phone interview that these pieces were intended to be satire on how technology is dehumanizing humans. “We seem to have forgotten how to establish human relationships,” he said.
    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

    But with no shortage of drama, the new collection featured heavily embroidered jackets embellished with semi-precious stones, brocade dresses, ostrich leather jackets and skirts, and blouses with velvet appliques overlaid with faux fur.

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    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
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    Trump did not cite any evidence for how efforts to hire more minorities, people with disabilities and other groups less represented in American workforces led to the crash, saying “it just could have been” and that he had “common sense.” But Trump criticized the FAA’s effort to recruit people with disabilities during Joe Biden’s administration, even though the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan for the 2020-2029 period, issued under Trump’s first administration, promoted and supported “the hiring of people with disabilities and targeted disabilities.”
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    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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    Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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    Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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    Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, US President Donald Trump and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Getty Images
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    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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    2025年2月8日
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    From fiery festivals to nature's most dazzling "sky-dance", interest in the night skies is booming, with "noctourism" poised to be a major travel trend in 2025.
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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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  • Josephbub

    Thieves blow up museum door and steal ancient artifacts, including 2,500-year-old gold helmet
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    Thieves have stolen four ancient artifacts, including an approximately 2,500-year-old gold helmet, after using explosives to break into a museum in the Netherlands.

    The daring heist took place at Drents Museum in Assen during the early hours of Saturday morning, according to Dutch police, who said they received a report of an explosion at 3:45 a.m. local time.

    CCTV footage released by police shows the suspects opening an exterior door before a blast sends sparks and smoke into the air. The thieves made off with three gold bracelets, dating from around 50 BC, as well as the 5th-century BC Helmet of Cotofenesti, a historically important artifact on loan from the National History Museum of Romania in Bucharest.
    The items were part of an exhibition about the Dacians, an ancient society that occupied much of present-day Romania before being conquered by the Romans. On show since July, “Dacia: Empire of Gold and Silver” featured treasures borrowed from institutions across Romania.

    In a press release on its website, Drents Museum described the Helmet of Cotofenesti — which was discovered in a Romanian village almost a century ago — as a “masterpiece.” Its design features mythological scenes and a pair of eyes, located above the wearers’, that were thought to deter enemies during battle while protecting against the “evil eye.”
    The exhibition was set to conclude Sunday, though Drents Museum remained closed through the weekend due to the robbery. Its premises were damaged by the explosion, though no injuries were reported, the museum said.

    Dutch police announced that they are working with global police agency Interpol and had, as of Sunday, received more than 50 tip-offs. Investigators are currently looking for information about a gray car that was stolen from the nearby city of Alkmaar earlier in the week and was discovered around four miles from the crime scene, on fire, shortly after the overnight heist.

    2025年2月11日
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    Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
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    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

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    Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.

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    That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.

    The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.

    Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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    Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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    The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”

    Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.

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    2025年2月11日
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    Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.

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    That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.

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    Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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    The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”

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    2025年2月12日