伴随美国经济复苏、美国国债收益率上涨和美元走强，近期投资者纷纷开始减持新兴市场资产。尤其是撤出那些看起来不太强劲的新兴市场经济体。
一些分析师认为，全球流动性周期开始逆转，新兴市场资产将会面临巨大逆风因素。而新兴市场央行也已开始加息应对。
投资者撤出新兴市场
国际金融研究所（Institute of International Finance）的数据显示，今年2月和3月，新兴市场债券出现了自去年春季新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来最大规模的资金净流出，投资者在这两个月中每月撤出约30亿美元。IIF数据还显示，3月新兴市场的净流入资金估计为101亿美元，是2020年4月以来最低的月度数据。
其中，南非、印尼和印度发行的债券被抛售得最为严重。同时，在这两个月中，基金经理们还从新兴经济体的股市中撤出了6.7亿美元。
对一些新兴市场经济体国债的大量抛售，使得其国债收益率近期大幅飙升。上周，巴西10年期本币债券收益率从2020年底的6.96%一度跃升至9.65%，根据FactSet的数据，这是自2020年3月市场动荡以来的最高水平。俄罗斯和墨西哥的国债收益率近期也达到了一年来的最高水平。
此外，新兴市场近期股票和债券市场的资本外流还削弱了多种新兴市场货币。例如，巴西雷亚尔对美元今年至今已下跌约8%。
不少投资者表示，新兴市场已被美国经济增长前景改善所颠覆，因为经济复苏前景会带动美元走强并推高美国国债收益率，基金经理正押注美联储将加息以控制通胀。
资产管理公司骏利亨德森（Janus Henderson）的多资产团队负责人奥康奈尔（Paul O‘Connor）表示，新兴市场经济体目前面临的主要挑战之一是美国实际收益率（即扣除通胀因素后的国债回报率）的上升。以10年期通胀保值债券（TIPS）盈亏平衡通胀率来衡量，3月中旬，美国实际收益率已从去年12月31日的-1.089%攀升至-0.573%，上周稍微回落至-0.684%。
在此前较低的实际利率环境下，如新兴市场资产这类风险资产的表现会更为强劲。而更高的实际收益率，正促使投资者重新考虑他们持有新兴市场国债上的风险溢价是否值得。“如果你看看现在的新兴市场固收市场，就会发现它正遭遇巨大阻力。”奥康奈尔称，“新兴市场在疫情期间是赢家，因为当时美国经济脆弱，实际收益率大跌，随着实际收益率的回升，投资者轮换投资市场似乎是很自然的事。”他近期减持了新兴市场股票，对新兴市场债券持中立态度。
在分析师看来，另一个对新兴市场资产构成挑战的，是美元走强。衡量美元对一篮子货币汇率的美元指数今年来已上涨了2.3%。
百达资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）的多资产基金经理拉姆吉（Shaniel Ramjee）表示，美元走强使新兴经济体偿还外债的成本更高，并可能打压大宗商品价格，从而减少出口导向型新兴经济体的出口收入。这增加了这些经济体通胀上升的可能性。
“这是一个恶性循环。”拉姆吉透露，他最近减持了中国和巴西的股票，转而购买美国股票。
道明证券驻新加坡首席新兴市场亚洲和欧洲策略师Mitul Kotecha表示，美国收益率上升和美元走强，投资者要么转向更安全的资产要么锁定盈利，这显然正拖累新兴市场股票，短期内很难看到逆转，压力暂时会持续。
分析师还表示，像土耳其等政治风险较高、南非等经济较弱的新兴市场经济体，股票和债券看起来吸引力不大。此外，巴西和印度等新兴市场经济体仍在应对不断上升的新增病例和新的病毒变异，这可能会影响它们的复苏。
新兴市场加息应对，谨防美联储转向
“全球流动性周期开始逆转。”奥康奈尔称，美国经济情况复苏吸引资本撤出的情况迫使不少新兴经济体不顾国内经济疲软而提高利率。
比如，为了对抗本币贬值和通胀上升，并赢回外国投资者，巴西、俄罗斯和土耳其央行上个月均提高了利率。
摩根大通资产管理公司（J.P.Morgan Asset Management）的新兴市场债务专家帕普（Zsolt Papp）表示，借贷成本上升可能会抑制其中一些国家的经济复苏步伐。接下来，墨西哥央行也可能会采取加息措施来应对。
帕普称：“新兴市场央行更容易受到全球资本流动的影响，它们无法忽视这方面的情况。”
一些分析师还警示称，新兴市场需谨防美联储政策转向。
上周公布的3月会议纪要显示，美联储认为，要实现其最大就业和2%的通胀目标可能仍然需要一段时间，资产购买计划将继续维持目前的步调。美联储还一再重申在2023年之前都将把利率维持在历史低位。
但会议纪要公布后，密切跟踪利率预期的指标欧洲美元期货显示，市场预期美联储将在2022年底前启动加息，并在2024年初之前追加加息三次。
美银美林也预计美联储的宽松立场是不可持续的，担心美联储突然转向可能会冲击市场。该机构认为美联储将收紧政策的理由是：一、美国经济正在迅速恢复，非农就业以及ISM指数等经济数据都远强于预期；二、新冠疫苗接种速度也超过了预期。
国际货币基金组织（IMF）警告称，美联储如果出人意料收紧政策，可能引发新兴市场利率升高和资本外流。IMF认为，如果发达经济体央行突然表示出对通胀风险的更大担忧，那么全世界可能看到金融状况突然收紧，类似于2013年的“缩减恐慌”。
基于此，IMF表示，为避免引发投资者对新兴市场的信心恶化，发达经济体的央行可以就不同情况下的未来货币政策提供清晰、透明的沟通。
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Drought-hit Danube River reveals scuttled German World War II ships
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The wrecks of explosives-laden Nazi ships sunk in the Danube River during World War II have emerged near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, after a drought in July and August that saw the river’s water level drop.
Four vessels dating from before 1950 have also come to light in Hungary’s Danube-Drava National Park near Mohacs, where the Danube’s water level stood at only 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) on Tuesday, the lingering effect of severe heat waves and persistent drought in July and August.
The vessels revealed in Prahovo were among hundreds scuttled along the Danube by Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, destroying the ships themselves. The wrecks can hamper river traffic during low water levels.
Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sandbanks.
Endre Sztellik, a guard at the Danube-Drava national park, said of one of the ships, “we still don’t know what this is exactly. What is visible and an unfortunate fact is that the wreck is diminishing as people are interested in it and parts of it are going missing.”
The Danube stood at 1.17 meters (3.8 feet) in Budapest on Tuesday, which compares with an all-time record low of around 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) registered in October 2018. During floods, the Danube rises well above 6 meters (19.7 feet).
“Eastern Europe is experiencing critical drought conditions that are affecting crops and vegetation,” the European climate service Copernicus said on its website in its latest drought report, published earlier this month.
Remember when Lady Gaga ‘bled’ onstage during her shocking performance at the 2009 VMAs?
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Singing about the perils of fame, being dragged out from beneath a fallen chandelier then bleeding to death in front of a roomful of celebrities: Lady Gaga was not shy about making her debut at the MTV Video Music Awards.
The year was 2009 — many will remember it as the year rapper Ye (formerly Kanye West) stage-crashed 19-year-old Taylor Swift and suggested her award for Best Female Video should have gone to Beyonce instead. But never one to be overshadowed, Lady Gaga, then 23, made some pop culture history of her own that night.
Her rendition of “Paparazzi” — lamenting both unrequited love and the sinister effects of hounding tabloids — has gone down in the mists of Gaga legend; not least because a lack of high-quality footage means fans must resort to watching grainy screen-recorded versions circulated on social media.
Over the limited number of pixels, Gaga can be seen at the start of the performance in an all-white ensemble: a bejeweled, asymmetric lace bodysuit and matching cape, thigh-high boots, a feathered Keko Hainswheeler headpiece and strings of glinting pearls. As she staggered back from her piano at the song’s crescendo, however, an audible gasp swept the room as thick blood suddenly appeared to be pouring from her abdomen.
“I’m your biggest fan, I’ll follow you until you love me,” Gaga wailed desperately, her once-pristine outfit now daubed in scarlet. She ended the number suspended above the stage, ‘dead,’ as more blood dripped from her eyes.
“(It) gives me chills every time I watch it,” Olivia Rodrigo told MTV in 2021. “I think Lady Gaga is the best performer of our generation.” The “Drivers License” singer appeared to take notes. At this year’s Grammy Awards, she began to ‘bleed’ from clenched fists while performing her hit “vampire,” spreading fake blood across her arms and neck as the song progressed.
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Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
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Scientists who discovered mammals can breathe through their anuses receive Ig Nobel prize
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The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.
We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”
In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.
American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.
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The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.
This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.
Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.
“It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.
Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.
Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three – were represented on the list.
Scientists have solved the mystery of a 650-foot mega-tsunami that made the Earth vibrate for 9 days
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Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.
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Hyundai and GM to work together on developing new cars
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Hyundai and General Motors (GM) have agreed to look for ways to work together on developing new vehicles, supply chains and technologies in an effort to cut costs and move more quickly.
Global carmakers are under intense pressure to come up with new electric vehicle (EV) and battery technology because they face vehicle emissions regulations around the world. Those research and development efforts could cost tens of billions of dollars.
They’re also facing an onslaught of potential competition from Chinese automakers, particularly EV producers, trying to export their lower-cost models overseas in order to escape a huge oversupply problem at home.
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South Korea’s Hyundai and America’s GM (GM) said on Thursday they would collaborate on joint product development, manufacturing and future clean energy technologies. They plan to work together on internal combustion, clean-energy, electric and hydrogen vehicles.
The non-binding framework agreement was signed by Hyundai Motor Executive Chair Euisun Chung and GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra.
“Our goal is to unlock the scale and creativity of both companies to deliver even more competitive vehicles to customers faster and more efficiently,” Barra said in the statement.
Including its affiliate Kia, Hyundai Motor is the world’s third-largest automaker by sales, according to Reuters, while GM is currently America’s largest carmaker, having retaken that title from Toyota (TM) in 2022.
“This partnership will enable Hyundai Motor and GM to evaluate opportunities to enhance competitiveness in key markets and vehicle segments, as well as drive cost efficiencies and provide stronger customer value,” Chung said in the statement.
Carmakers are increasingly sealing partnerships as a way of becoming more competitive in a cut-throat industry driven by price wars.
Last year, Nissan and Renault finalized the terms of their revamped alliance, which will focus on developing EVs. GM and Honda (HMC), along with Cruise — GM’s autonomous driving subsidiary — have agreed to create a driverless ride-hailing company in Japan.
Hyundai and GM to work together on developing new cars
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Hyundai and General Motors (GM) have agreed to look for ways to work together on developing new vehicles, supply chains and technologies in an effort to cut costs and move more quickly.
Global carmakers are under intense pressure to come up with new electric vehicle (EV) and battery technology because they face vehicle emissions regulations around the world. Those research and development efforts could cost tens of billions of dollars.
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South Korea’s Hyundai and America’s GM (GM) said on Thursday they would collaborate on joint product development, manufacturing and future clean energy technologies. They plan to work together on internal combustion, clean-energy, electric and hydrogen vehicles.
The non-binding framework agreement was signed by Hyundai Motor Executive Chair Euisun Chung and GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra.
“Our goal is to unlock the scale and creativity of both companies to deliver even more competitive vehicles to customers faster and more efficiently,” Barra said in the statement.
Including its affiliate Kia, Hyundai Motor is the world’s third-largest automaker by sales, according to Reuters, while GM is currently America’s largest carmaker, having retaken that title from Toyota (TM) in 2022.
“This partnership will enable Hyundai Motor and GM to evaluate opportunities to enhance competitiveness in key markets and vehicle segments, as well as drive cost efficiencies and provide stronger customer value,” Chung said in the statement.
Carmakers are increasingly sealing partnerships as a way of becoming more competitive in a cut-throat industry driven by price wars.
Last year, Nissan and Renault finalized the terms of their revamped alliance, which will focus on developing EVs. GM and Honda (HMC), along with Cruise — GM’s autonomous driving subsidiary — have agreed to create a driverless ride-hailing company in Japan.
Scientists who discovered mammals can breathe through their anuses receive Ig Nobel prize
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The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.
We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”
In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.
American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.
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