
周三(4月14日)亚洲时段,现货黄金持稳,交投于1745附近。周二(4月13日)金价涨0.74%,数据显示美国通胀大幅上升,提振了金价作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力,美元与美债收益率的下跌进一步支撑金价走高。
基本面利多
美国3月CPI大涨
美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示,消费者物价指数环比走高0.6%,2月上升0.4%。汽油价格的大涨占3月总体涨幅的近一半。不计波动性较大的食品和能源,核心CPI环比上升0.3%,创7个月来的最大涨幅,上月商品和服务价格均走高。CPI同比上升2.6%,该数据由于2020年3月疫情相关物价的下降而有一定的失真。
投资者正在关注通胀压力是否会持续下去的迹象,通胀压力持续可能会刺激人们将黄金用作通货膨胀对冲工具的的需求。
强生疫苗步阿斯利康后尘
美国疾病控制和预防中心、美国食品和药物管理局13日发表联合声明说,鉴于美国已报告6例因接种强生新冠疫苗出现罕见严重血栓病例,建议暂停接种强生新冠疫苗。
美元、美债收益率双双回落
美国国债收益率周二进一步下跌,收报1.614%,收益率曲线更加趋平,本周最后一次国债标售获得稳健需求。
美元及美债收益率的下滑将有利于提振黄金的吸引力。
费城联储主席称目前尚无理由撤回支持政策
费城联储行长主席表示,“尽管经济形势正在改善,但复苏仍处于初期阶段,现在还没有理由撤回支持。”
基本面利空
IMF上调亚洲经济预估
IMF预计亚洲经济今年将增长7.6%,高于10月份预计的6.9%。预计2022年亚洲经济将增长5.4%。疫苗接种过程中的挫折、对疫苗对抗新型病毒变种效力的质疑,以及疫情的反扑,共同构成了一个关键的下行风险。
上午关注新西兰联储利率决议,预计新西兰联储将表现轻松,因该联储已经明确表示,从当前起宁愿冒着通胀过高的风险,也不愿通胀水平过低。新西兰联储今日的基调或比短期利率反映的更为鸽派和谨慎,料对纽元构成温和的下行风险。
最近的事态发展非但没有为新西兰联储提供任何明确的指引,反而使新西兰联储迄今首选的保留所有选项的策略成为一个合理的选择。今日最现实的预期是货币政策委员会的措辞会有细微的调整,这反映了最新的房地产市场动态和好坏参半的经济数据。
晚间关注美国3月进口物价指数,预计环比将小幅低于前值1.3%,对市场影响相对较小。
美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书,美联储主席鲍威尔和副主席克拉里达将分别亮相讲话,不出意外鲍威尔仍然将表态维持目前宽松政策不变。
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