
周四(4月15日)亚洲时段,现货黄金持稳于1739附近。周三(4月14日)金价跌0.52%,因美债收益率上升打击了无收益黄金的吸引力,盖过了美元走软带来的支撑。另外,美联储褐皮书再次确认美国经济增长步伐加快。ETF持仓数据下降及美股再创新高等因素都利空金价。不过,美元指数的疲软可能成为多头的救命稻草,鲍威尔及克拉里达重申达到目标后再考虑加息也利于金价上行。
日内重点关注3月零售销售及初请失业金人数,前者有“恐怖数据”之称,预计将利空金价。
基本面利空因素
美债收益率上涨
美国国债收益率周三小幅走高,收益率曲线趋陡,市场等待周四将公布的每周初请失业金人数和3月零售销售数据,以寻找有关经济从新冠大流行中复苏的进一步线索。
宏利投资管理资深固定收益交易员Michael Lorizio说,“面对好于预期的经济数据和本周1200亿美元的国债和票据标售,基本上整个曲线都如此强劲后有些回落也是说得过去的”。
美国商务部的零售销售报告也将出炉。据调查,美国3月零售销售预计将增长5.9%,而2月份则下降了3%。
Lorizio说:"如果零售销售优于预期区间上端,直觉上就会对美国国债产生不利影响,但我认为市场预期经济会加速,多数市场已在某种程度上做好准备。"
High Ridge futures金属交易部主管David Meger称,美债收益率上扬似乎给黄金市场增添了一些非常轻的压力;不过Meger补充称,金价回落看起来更多是技术性的,1750美元既是短期技术阻力位,也是心理阻力位。
BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash表示,在抗拒了第二次下跌至每盎司1675美元水准后,黄金持续在1750美元下方建立基础。去年新冠疫情让大宗商品价格暴跌,只要去年这样的基础影响仍在扭曲年度通膨数据,我们就会一直卡在这里做横盘交易。
例如,10年来最激烈的进出口通胀可能会提振黄金和白银,但如果重创固定收入并推高债券收益率,那就不会提高黄金白银。周二金价走高系因30年期债券遭强力抛售,这显示黄金走势主要看债券收益率,而非通胀率。
美联储称美国经济活动加速至温和增长
美联储表示,美国经济活动增长步伐有所加快,消费者支出出现了改善。
美联储在周三公布的褐皮书中表示:“2月底到4月初全国经济活动加速到温和增长,消费者支出有所增强。关于旅游状况的报告更加乐观,因休闲活动和旅行需求加速上升。”这份褐皮书是基于12家地区联储截至4月5日收集到的信息编制而成。
美联储官员反复强调,需要继续以积极的货币政策支持经济复苏,即使疫苗接种范围扩大使经济前景变得更为乐观。
尽管美联储官员大幅上调今年经济增长和就业预测,但他们预计2023年末之前都不会加息。
美国经济加速上升对避险黄金而言利空。
黄金ETF持仓再减少3.21吨
4月15日黄金ETFs数据显示,截止4月14日全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量1022.86吨,较上一交易日减少3.21吨,创一年以来新低。

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