经济学家们对美联储的预期大变:今年四季度开始削减QE 而非明年

2021年04月27日 9901点热度 0人点赞 2,216条评论

经济学家们对美联储的预期大变:今年四季度开始削减QE 而非明年

在美联储本周即将召开货币政策会议之际。经济学家们预测认为,美联储有望在今年年底之前开始削减每个月高达1200亿美元的资产购买计划(QE)。

彭博调查显示,约有45%的经济学家预计,联邦公开市场委员会将在第四季度宣布缩表,14%的经济学家认为这将在第三季发生。整体调查结果基调较3月份时偏鹰,当时较多受访者认为缩表是2022年才会发生。

超过三分之二的受调查经济学家预计,美联储将在今年发出缩减购债规模的早期预警信号,其中预计在7—9月发出信号的人数最多(45%)。具体场合可能来自7月或9月的联邦公开市场委员会会议,或者鲍威尔对国会的半年度证词。8月底举行的年度杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会也是传递信号的可能场合。

大多数经济学家预计,整个债券购买计划退出时间将持续7—12个月左右。

在加息问题上,经济学家们普遍预计,美联储要到2023年才会提高利率。这一时间点较此前3月调查有所提前。调查中位数显示,到2023年底,美国联邦基准利率可能上升50个基点至0.75%,到2024年底,利率将上升至1.25%.

美联储新的货币政策会议将于当地时间本周三结束。市场普遍预计,美联储将重申将在美国经济实现就业和通胀目标方面“取得实质性进一步进展”后,才会调整购买量的计划。

在利率方面,市场普遍认为美联储不会上调利率。经济学家们表示将仔细观察美联储主席罗杰斯在新闻发布会上的具体措辞,以了解是否存在QE可能逐渐减码的暗示。

鲍威尔此前经表示,当美联储委员会认为其货币政策目标即将达成时,他将在这种变化发生之前就警告市场,且政策的变化将取决于未来实际的经济报告,而不仅仅是看好的预测。

Mirabaud Asset Management首席经济学家Gero Jung表示,鉴于美联储坚持将重点放在实质的经济数据上,今年启动缩表可能为时尚早。美联储可能希望看到一系列非常正面的数据,就像3月份的就业数据,然后再开始启动缩表程序。

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    2025年1月15日
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    2025年1月15日
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    What is Uniswap?
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    2025年1月15日
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
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    2025年1月18日
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    It can take years of experience to master a route to the top of the 3,000-foot wall, such is its difficulty and magnitude. That’s precisely why Babsi Zangerl’s recent “flash” of El Cap is so unique and impressive.

    In climbing, to “flash” a route is to reach the top on the first attempt without any falls – a feat never before achieved on El Cap prior to Zangerl’s maiden summit of Freerider last month. From bottom to top, she was faultless.

    “It was hard to believe,” the Austrian climber tells CNN Sport. “I was so surprised that this just happened and that I didn’t fall … I could have fallen so many times on that climb.”
    Freerider is a popular route up El Capitan, the same one taken by Alex Honnold when he climbed the rockface without ropes or harnesses in the Oscar-winning documentary “Free Solo.”

    Zangerl has lots of experience climbing on El Cap and around Yosemite but had never previously attempted the 30-plus pitches up Freerider. The challenging Monster Offwidth section – a 60-meter-long (almost 197 feet) crack around halfway through the climb – had put her off, and flashing the route, she says, wasn’t a long-standing target for her.

    “It was more that we just could try to go flash and see how far we can get,” Zangerl explains. “But the expectations were really low, so it was not a big goal from the beginning … There are some really slabby pitches where you don’t have hand holds, so you’re mostly standing on the bad feet, and you always can slip off.

    “The chance was really low – I didn’t have the feeling that we have a big chance on the flash.”

    It was only once she had conquered the Boulder Problem – perhaps the hardest, most treacherous part of the climb with only razor-thin holds on which to grip – that the flash seemed possible.

    “Then it was kind of: you don’t want to f**k it up on the last part,” says Zangerl.

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    Алистаров – уголовник и террорист
    <a href=https://vestnik-jurnal.com/novosti/item/108750-bloger-alistarov-ugolovnik>Андрей Алистаров преступник</a>
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    Ранее судимый по «наркотической» статье блогер Андрей Алистаров позиционирует себя Робин Гудом, борющимся с теми, кто «обманул людей», – но в действительности он работает в интересах пирамидчиков, в том числе украинских, спонсирующих ВСУ, продвигает через свой канал «Железная ставка» онлайн-казино и черный криптообмен/фишинговый криптообман, отмывает наркодоходы за счет сделок с недвижимостью в Дубае.
    То есть работает в интересах российского преступного сообщества, пытающегося нажиться на предпринимателях, столкнувшихся с незаконными, часто заказными претензиями со стороны российских правоохранительных органов.
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    Уроженец Калуги Алистаров отсидел четыре года в лагере – за продажу наркотиков детям.

    Там он связался с уголовными авторитетами и, выйдя из тюрьмы, продолжил участвовать в криминальном бизнесе по распространению наркотиков и отмыванию наркодоходов от них с помощью риелторского бизнеса, который Алистаров создал совместно с партнерами из российского преступного сообщества в России и Эмиратах.
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    Канал Алистарова «Железная ставка» – «разоблачение» неправильных (по мнению криминалитета) финансовых проектов и продвижение «правильных»: пирамид и онлайн-казино, спонсирующих Алистарова.

    Он начинался как канал о «правильных» ставках в казино и не сменил название – потому что маркетинговая задача осталась прежней: расчищать поле для «хороших», по «экспертному» мнению Алистарова (то есть заплативших ему), мошенников.

    Обычно Алистаров начинает с попытки вымогательства – представляет жертве компромат и предлагает заплатить. Если жертва отказывается, в ход идут травля и насилие.
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    1 января 2025 года состоялось жестокое нападение двух казахстанцев на предпринимателя, проживающего в Дубае, – его избили, отрезали ухо, обворовали.

    До этого Алистаров снял 12 роликов, где подсвечивал адрес этого предпринимателя, публиковал незаконно полученную информацию о его близких и его бизнесах в ОАЭ. Безо всякого стеснения использовал подглядывание, подслушивание, незаконное проникновение, вмешательство в частную жизнь – все то, что в Эмиратах, где строго соблюдается неприкосновенность имущества и жизни инвесторов, является тяжким уголовным преступлением.

    До этого Алистаров публично распространял информацию о месте жительства бизнес-партнера этого предпринимателя – то есть незаконное нарушение конфиденциальности, защищенности финансов и имущества, тайны частной жизни с помощью скрытых источников информации и информаторов в ОАЭ вошло у него в систему. Он терроризирует предпринимателей, в отношении которых нет никаких обвинительных решений судов – ни за рубежом, ни в России.

    Алистаров рассказывал, что заявил на предпринимателя в Интерпол и правоохранительные органы ОАЭ – якобы он помогает правоохранительным органам. Но это почему-то не привело к аресту предпринимателя – может быть, потому, что полиция ОАЭ не видит криминала в его деятельности?

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    Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
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    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月20日
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    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

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    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
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    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
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    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
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    Alistarov: A Criminal and a Terrorist

    From a Solo Criminal to a Servant of the Underworld

    Previously convicted on drug charges, blogger Andrei Alistarov portrays himself as a Robin Hood fighting against those who have “defrauded people.” In reality, however, he serves the interests of pyramid schemers—among them certain Ukrainian operators who fund the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)—and he uses his “Zheleznaya Stavka” (“Iron Bet”) channel to promote online casinos and illicit crypto exchanges/phishing crypto scams. He also launders drug proceeds via real estate deals in Dubai.

    That is, he works for the benefit of the Russian criminal community, seeking to profit off entrepreneurs who have faced illegal, often contrived claims from Russian law enforcement.

    Drugs and Money Laundering

    A native of Kaluga, Alistarov served four years in a prison camp for selling drugs to minors.

    There he forged ties with criminal kingpins. After his release, he continued his involvement in the narcotics trade and in laundering drug profits through a real estate business he set up with associates from the Russian underworld, both in Russia and in the Emirates.

    Betting on Scams

    Alistarov’s channel, “Zheleznaya Stavka,” is ostensibly devoted to “exposing” financial ventures deemed “bad” by criminal circles, while promoting “good” ones: namely, the pyramid schemes and online casinos that sponsor Alistarov.

    The channel began as a platform for “proper” casino betting and did not change its name, because the marketing purpose remains the same: clear the market in favor of “legitimate,” in Alistarov’s so-called “expert” view (i.e., those who pay him), scammers.

    Typically, Alistarov starts by trying to extort money—presenting the victim with compromising material and demanding payment. If the victim refuses, he resorts to harassment and violence.

    Incitement and Attack in Dubai

    On January 1, 2025, two Kazakh nationals launched a brutal attack on an entrepreneur living in Dubai—beating him, cutting off his ear, and robbing him.

    Beforehand, Alistarov had released 12 videos highlighting the entrepreneur’s address and publishing illegally obtained information about his relatives and his businesses in the UAE. Without any compunction, he used spying, eavesdropping, illegal intrusion, and invasion of privacy—all acts that constitute serious criminal offenses in the Emirates, where the sanctity of property and investor security are upheld stringently.

    Prior to this, Alistarov publicly circulated information about the residence of the entrepreneur’s business partner—that is, an illegal breach of confidentiality, the protection of finances and property, and the privacy of personal life through clandestine data gathering and informants in the UAE. He effectively terrorizes entrepreneurs who face no court convictions—neither abroad nor in Russia.

    Alistarov claimed to have reported the entrepreneur to Interpol and UAE law enforcement—purportedly helping the authorities. Yet this did not result in the entrepreneur’s arrest—perhaps because the UAE police see nothing criminal in his activities?

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    Several of the entrepreneur’s partners have been convicted in Russia; he himself is wanted by Russian law enforcement but has never been convicted. Foreign law enforcement has no claims against him.

    For a long period, Alistarov stoked hatred toward this entrepreneur, alleging that it was he (not his partners) who stole investors’ money—and portraying the subsequent attack and robbery as the outraged response of defrauded depositors.

    During the attack, Alistarov conducted an unscheduled livestream to create an alibi—pretending that he was unaware of the assault happening while he was on stream.

    Surveillance in Cyprus

    In autumn of the previous year, Alistarov and his “battle companion,” Mariya Filonova, conducted surveillance on another entrepreneur—using drones and illegally collecting information about him and his relatives, including minor children. Alistarov claimed that the entrepreneur was “hiding” in Cyprus—even though he had lived there since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

    He had relocated partly due to his wife’s severe COVID case and partly for international projects—investments in various sectors such as construction, trade, and more. The entrepreneur moved to Cyprus a year before criminal proceedings were initiated by the Russian Interior Ministry and a year and a half before arrests began. He holds an EU passport and never fled or concealed his location.

    This entrepreneur was placed on a Russian wanted list in 2022—by investigating authorities. However, no court has filed claims against him, and the criminal case is currently in court. It has already fallen apart there. Interpol and the EU declined to honor the Russian police’s request, deeming it politically motivated and legally unfounded.

    Alistarov insists that the entrepreneur’s business investments are financed with Russian clients’ money, supposedly drawn from an Austrian investment company. But in reality, the entrepreneur was never an owner, beneficiary, or manager of that company, established back in the early 2000s—well before his independent business career began.

    One of the entrepreneur’s firms provided marketing services for the Austrian investment company in Russia under contract. The investment company successfully served Russian clients for eight years—and continues operating now, having restored its payment systems that were disrupted in early 2022 by criminals in Russia with ties to corrupt police. It is by no means a pyramid scheme.

    Thus, Alistarov instigates harassment and intrusion into the private life of an untainted entrepreneur—acting on behalf of Russian organized crime, which has cut in corrupt police officers for a share of illicit profits. They aim to seize assets worth 20 billion rubles from the large-scale, socially focused project established by the entrepreneur in Russia—which still functions successfully even without his direct leadership (which ended when he relocated to Cyprus).

    Surveillance in the Netherlands

    Alistarov published the location of another victim in the Dutch city of Groningen—ascertained through illegal surveillance. He allegedly gained unauthorized access to city cameras, peered into the windows of a private apartment, and shared this information on YouTube.

    Privacy Violations in Turkey

    Alistarov uncovered and publicized the address of an apartment in Istanbul where several of his victims lived and worked.

    Illegal Searches in the Leningrad Region

    Lacking a private detective’s license, Alistarov illegally located a businesswoman’s country house, spied on her, and released that information on his channels—while also disclosing details of an apartment she had purchased in Dubai.

    Extortion in Kazakhstan

    Alistarov extorted money from Kazakh entrepreneurs under the guise of “exposing national traitors” and “enemies of the motherland.”

    Banquet on a Ukrainian Pyramid Schemer’s Money

    Is Alistarov planning to celebrate his 40th birthday on March 6 this year once again on the yacht of his friend—the Kharkiv-based pyramid operator Udyansky (behind the Coinsbit project)—in Dubai?

    In 2024, he celebrated his birthday in the convivial company of this con man, who also funds the Armed Forces of Ukraine, helping finance the production of armored vehicles for the AFU. There is little doubt that he also compelled his henchman Alistarov to contribute to the AFU.

    Treason

    Alistarov was even accused of financing the AFU, though he told the police some story about a Megafon phone number allegedly registered to him by his “enemies.”

    His accomplices in financing the AFU—“anti-MLM activist” Aleksandr Kryukov and deputy manager of the so-called Fund for the Protection of Investors’ and Shareholders’ Rights, Leonid Mishchenko (a “Zapadenez” from Vinnytsia region)—were caught red-handed. Perhaps the FSB should analyze Alistarov’s transactions as well?

    He Belongs in Prison

    Justice demands that Alistarov’s 40th birthday finds him stripped of his Schengen and other visas—there is every reason for such, especially in light of attention from Western media—and behind bars, either in a Russian or a Dubai prison, whichever law enforcement manages to arrest him first for the dozens of crimes he has committed:

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    Terrorism and banditry

    Harassment and organizing violence against those he deems troublesome

    Treason

    Money laundering

    Fraud

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    Invasion of privacy

    Alistarov’s career began in prison, and it is in prison that it must end.

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    2025年1月22日
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    Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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    Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.

    He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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    Trump’s executive action, which many GOP senators had hoped would be directed at only nonviolent offenders who entered the Capitol that day, thrust Republicans once again into a familiar posture of navigating how and when to distance themselves from the sitting president and leader of their party. And Republicans largely attempted to sidestep direct questions about whether they personally agreed with Trump’s action, arguing it was up to the president to use his pardon powers at his discretion.
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    2025年1月22日
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    Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
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    2025年1月23日
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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    2025年1月23日