全球美元荒缓解 美联储或重申宽松立场

2021年04月27日 7918点热度 0人点赞 1,662条评论

全球美元荒缓解 美联储或重申宽松立场

本周,市场将迎来美联储利率政策会议。尽管美国经济处于复苏通道中、市场通胀担忧上升,但机构投资者普遍预期美联储仍将维持此前宽松立场不变,并将在未来几个季度依然保持鸽派态度。在上述预期下,叠加市场流动性宽松,美元指数(90.93070.09260.10%)持续下行。

受美国大规模财政刺激政策及疫苗有序接种等因素影响,美国经济复苏势头强劲。3月份美国PMI数据反弹至近期新高64.7,创下37年来新高,同期服务业PMI也稳步上行。另外,3月美国新增非农就业人数91.6万人,远远超过市场预期的64.7万人,失业率回落至6.0%。

“尽管美联储官员已经注意到经济复苏将会加快,但他们仍可能重复表态称就业市场正在复苏,以及将通胀保持2%目标上方的必要性,市场对美联储政策大概率只能保持观望态度。”嘉盛集团资深分析师乔.佩里告诉记者。

长期来看,花旗分析师认为,美联储今年需要精准平衡政策措施,以保持美国经济既不过热、也不过冷。部分新兴市场国家疫情确诊人数再度回升等,将对经济过热产生抑制作用,预计未来几个季度美联储将保持政策宽松。

对于市场关注的何时缩减购债规模问题,美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示,未来决定缩减购债规模时将向外释放明确信号。此前,美联储官员透露,触发缩表的条件是疫苗普及率达到75%至80%。市场人士据此分析称,此次会议可能并非决定缩表的好时机。

“虽然美联储近两年不考虑加息,但缩表已经提上了议程。未来任何缩表暗示都可能推动美元指数走高,而围绕‘长期低利率’的讨论或导致美元重回跌势。”乔.佩里说。

近期,美元指数掉头下跌。4月以来,美元指数一路下行,从3月31日底的93.21高点跌至90.8以下。截至北京时间26日17时30分,美元指数跌至90.73,本月至今累计下跌逾2.6%。

流动性泛滥被认为是美元指数下跌的主要原因。疫情爆发之后,美联储迅速应对,为市场提供了充足的流动性。叠加美联储对大型银行的补充杠杆率(SLR)的豁免措施到期致使流动性边际更为宽松,美元指数不断下行。

各国央行也预判美元流动性紧张已经缓解。英国、日本、欧洲和瑞士4家央行上周集体发布公告称在与美联储磋商后,共同决定从7月开始停止进行“84天期”的美元流动性互换操作。

4家央行的共同声明称,鉴于美元融资状况持续改善,近期提供美元流动性的操作需求低迷,这一业务变化将于2021年7月1日生效。此外,从2021年7月1日起,这4家央行将继续每周进行7天期货币互换操作。

去年3月,美联储与英国、日本、欧洲、瑞士及加拿大央行宣布将美元流动性互换协议定价调降25个基点,新的利率将为美元隔夜指数掉期利率加上25个基点。与此同时,在目前7天期操作基础上,5家央行开始每周提供84天期限的美元流动性操作。此后一周,上述5家央行再次发表统一声明称,为了提高货币互换在提供美元资金方面的有效性,同意将“7天期操作”的频率从每周增加到每天。

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    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

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    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

    2025年1月30日
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    Jason Oppenheim shot from shoulders up, smiling and looking to right
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

    Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.

    "We're having landlords taking advantage of the situation," says Oppenheim, who stars in the reality show Selling Sunset about LA's luxury real estate market.

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    "There are thousands of people who are displaced...the hotels are overwhelmed," he says.

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    To most people, Salih’s free diving skills are highly unusual; but not to his community. Salih is Bajau Laut, an indigenous seafaring group in Southeast Asia that has lived a semi-nomadic lifestyle on the ocean for centuries. Living on boats and fishing for income and sustenance, the Bajau Laut aren’t just reliant on the sea: they’re biologically adapted to it, with larger spleens that give them the ability to hold their breath for far longer than the average person.

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    Индивидуальный предприниматель Сафин Ирек Фаатович

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    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

    Начало пути

    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

    Первые шаги в бизнесе

    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

    Расширение бизнеса

    В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.

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    Одним из важных аспектов деятельности Ирека Сафина является социальная ответственность. Он активно участвует в благотворительных проектах, поддерживает образовательные учреждения и спортивные мероприятия. Кроме того, он уделяет большое внимание экологии и внедряет экологически чистые технологии в своем производстве.

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    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – яркий пример успешного предпринимателя, который сумел построить устойчивый бизнес и внести значительный вклад в развитие экономики региона. Его опыт и достижения могут служить примером для многих начинающих предпринимателей.

    2025年2月2日
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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
    Over 150 looks were presented, including pants and skirts embroidered with gold threads, frilled head gear, stacked jewelry and tops with slogans such as “cat lady,” “table for one,” “where has love gone,” and “all dressed up nowhere to go.” Mukherjee explained in a phone interview that these pieces were intended to be satire on how technology is dehumanizing humans. “We seem to have forgotten how to establish human relationships,” he said.
    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

    But with no shortage of drama, the new collection featured heavily embroidered jackets embellished with semi-precious stones, brocade dresses, ostrich leather jackets and skirts, and blouses with velvet appliques overlaid with faux fur.

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    A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
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    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

    2025年2月5日
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    Opposite a bed in central London, light filters through a stained-glass window depicting, in fragments of copper and blue, Jesus Christ.
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    Three people have lived in the deserted cathedral in the past two years, with each occupant — an electrician, a sound engineer and a journalist — paying a monthly fee to live in the priest’s quarters.
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    The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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    Applications to become guardians are going “through the roof,” with more people in their late thirties and forties signing on than in the past, said Arthur Duke, the founder and managing director of Live-in Guardians.
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    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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    Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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    Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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    ”To be a Freemason is to be part of a brotherhood dedicated to personal growth, service to others, and the pursuit of knowledge and truth,” the lodge wrote. Biden’s service, the statement added, “reflects the core values” of this brotherhood.
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    Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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    Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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  • доставка алкоголя

    24-часовая поставка алкоголя в Москве: комфорт либо проблема?

    Как это функционирует?

    24-часовая доставка спиртного в Москве осуществляется посредством многообразные сервисы:

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    2025年2月9日
  • Robertshory

    From fiery festivals to nature's most dazzling "sky-dance", interest in the night skies is booming, with "noctourism" poised to be a major travel trend in 2025.
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    Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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  • WilliamNox

    These apes can tell when humans don’t know something, study finds
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    Some great apes realize when a human partner doesn’t know something and are capable of communicating information to them to change their behavior, a new study shows.

    Researchers from Johns Hopkins University studying bonobos found that they would point to where treats were hidden if they could see their human partner didn’t know where they were, according to a statement from the university, published Monday.

    Working with three male bonobos, study co-author Luke Townrow, a Johns Hopkins PhD student, would sit across a table from one of the animals as another person placed a treat under one of three cups.
    In some cases, Townrow would be allowed to see which cup the treat was under, and the bonobo would wait for him to pass it the food.

    At other times, he would not be able to see where the treat was, and the bonobo would point to the right cup to help him find the food.

    The “seemingly simple experiment that demonstrated for the first time that apes will communicate unknown information in the name of teamwork,” the statement reads.

    And study co-author Chris Krupenye, a Johns Hopkins assistant professor of psychological and brain sciences, told CNN that the study “is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that a non-human primate understands when someone else is ignorant.”

    This ability to intuit gaps in others’ knowledge is known as theory of mind.

    “As humans we have theory of mind, the ability to think about others’ perspectives,” Krupenye told CNN on Tuesday.

    2025年2月9日
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    "The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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    It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."

    Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."

    Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."

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    Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.

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  • BobbyFroks

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    The short-term pause issued by US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan prevents the administration from carrying through with its plans to freeze funding for “open awards” already granted by the federal government through at least 5 p.m. ET Monday, February 3.
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