印度疫情下全球资管紧急调仓 人民币资产再成避险港湾

2021年04月28日 12792点热度 0人点赞 2,442条评论

印度疫情下全球资管紧急调仓 人民币资产再成避险港湾

印度疫情下全球资管紧急调仓 人民币资产再成避险港湾

  21世纪经济报道 陈植 上海报道

印度疫情持续恶化,正倒逼全球资管机构迅速调仓避险。

新兴市场基金研究公司EPFR

Global发布最新数据显示,截至4月21日当周,投资者从新兴市场股票基金撤资13亿美元,创下过去三个多月以来最高水平。当周印度股票基金则出现过去一年以来的最大资金外流。

EPFR Global研究主管卡梅伦·布兰特(Cameron

Brandt)直言,过去数周印度资本流出正在加剧,若疫情持续恶化,资本外流状况还将愈演愈烈。

值得注意的是,从印度等新兴市场流出的资金,正涌入人民币资产避险。

“这背后,是全球资管机构对新兴市场资产配置做了被动调整。”一位华尔街大型宏观经济型对冲基金经理向记者表示。具体而言,他们大幅减持疫情不稳定且经济衰退风险加剧的新兴市场国家资产,转而加码疫情控制成效显著且经济复苏基本面良好的新兴市场资产。尽管这意味着他们可能会损失不菲的利差收益,但在疫情卷土重来的时刻,资产安全性必须摆在第一位。

值得注意的是,受资本流向人民币资产避险的影响,4月27日离岸人民币兑美元汇率一度创下3月中旬以来最高值6.4676,截至当天19时,离岸人民币兑美元汇率徘徊在6.4770附近。

人民币汇率再度反弹,也给企业外汇套保操作带来新的挑战。

“目前,多数企业的外汇操作相当理性。”一位股份制银行金融市场部主管向记者透露,鉴于今年一季度人民币汇率双向波动幅度加大,不少企业正加大远期结售汇与外汇期权操作,锁定自己认可的汇兑价格。

法国农业信贷投资银行中国区首席经济师达留什·科瓦尔奇克表示,“去年6月以来,摩根大通的人民币实际有效汇率指数攀升约8%,接近历史最高点。但鉴于中国生产率上升相对较快,当前人民币实际有效汇率上升对多数出口企业的冲击并不大,因为鉴于生产率上升幅度超过人民币汇率实际升值幅度,中国企业仍可以通过出口规模增长获得可观利润,对冲汇率升值冲击。”

牺牲利差收益力保净值波动稳定

面对印度疫情持续恶化,多位国际资管机构新兴市场资产配置主管表示已收到总部紧急通知,将资金转投更加安全的新兴市场国家资产。

记者获悉,截至4月23日,本月以来全球投资机构已抛售逾11亿美元印度股票。受此影响,今年以来印度BSE

SENSEX股票指数仅上涨约2%,成为亚洲表现最差的股指之一。

“这令全球资本可能会加快撤离步伐。”上述华尔街大型宏观经济型对冲基金经理分析说。去年底,受印度疫情得到有效控制与经济持续复苏的影响,逾百亿美元全球资金涌入印度股市,如今他们几乎未获可观收益且承担日益巨大的投资风险,落袋为安正成为他们共同的选择。

“这将导致更多全球资本流向人民币资产避险。”他指出。目前部分对冲基金正押注离岸人民币汇率在未来一两周内重新涨破6.4。

记者获悉,国际金融组织对人民币走强的力挺,也驱动越来越多全球资管机构加快调仓避险步伐。

国际金融协会3月份发布的最新评估报告显示,在中国经济率先复苏的激励下,其汇率模型显示人民币汇率被低估12.8%,美元估值则日益偏高。

企业理性套保风险中性意识增强

面对人民币汇率再度反弹,不少企业显得相对淡定。

上述股份制银行金融市场部主管向记者透露,尽管过去一周人民币汇率持续反弹期间,企业购汇意愿有所升温,却基本延续着今年以来逢高结汇、逢低购汇的理性交易状况。

比如不少企业通过购汇,一次性解决未来3个月的对外付款需求。因为这些企业认为在6.5下方购汇,足以节省逾100个基点的购汇汇兑开支,达到企业内部设定的外汇套保收益目标。

他直言,继一季度远期结售汇和外汇期权签约规模同比大增95%后,当前企业对远期结售汇与外汇期权的操作热情仍与日俱增,以此对冲人民币汇率双向波动弹性增加风险。值得注意的是,以往企业主要通过外汇套保“对冲”人民币兑美元的汇率波动风险,本周以来人民币兑欧元、人民币兑日元的远期结售汇业务量也开始增加。

这背后,是美元再度贬值令越来越多海外贸易企业开始接受欧元、日元作为结算货币,令国内企业的相关外汇套保需求骤增。此外,4月以来欧元、日元兑人民币重拾升值走势,也导致国内企业通过外汇期权与远期结售汇锁定欧元日元购汇汇兑成本的需求日益旺盛。

在他看来,这凸显企业的风险中性意识正逐步增强。

外汇局此前公布的数据显示,2020年企业套保比率为17.1%,较2019年上升2.7个百分点。

国家外汇管理局副局长王春英直言,企业树立风险中性的理念尤其重要。一是立足主业,理性面对汇率涨跌,审慎安排资产和负债的货币结构;二是合理管理汇率风险,以保持财务稳健和可持续为导向,而不应该以套保的盈亏论英雄。

“避险保值就像花钱买保险,是要付出成本的,是以一个比较小的成本来管理比较大的不确定性和可能的损失,对此企业一定要有充分的认识。”她指出。未来外汇局将继续加强企业汇率风险管理宣传培训和辅导,加大外汇市场政策供给。比如在深化外汇市场建设方面,不断丰富交易工具,完善交易机制,提升外汇市场的透明度,增强交易便利性,更好满足市场主体风险管理的需求。

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    Separately, an AI-assisted analysis uncovered a trove of ancient symbols in Peru’s Nazca Desert, nearly doubling the number of known geoglyphs, or stone and gravel arranged into giant shapes that depict animals, humans and geometric designs.

    2024年10月1日
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    Jenner’s Mugler moment was just the latest example of a resurging tendency for underwear as outerwear. At the Nensi Dojaka runway show in London earlier this month, boxy blazers were shrugged over strappy bras while paneled bustiers in sheer fabric were paired with capri trousers and reimagined as going out tops. Brasseries were even left exposed to the elements at Erdem — a departure for a house beloved by both British acting royalty (Kristen Scott Thomas) and actual royalty (the Duchess of Cambridge). Dolce & Gabbana got the memo, too, showing satin corsets, garter belts and Madonna-esque cone bras at Milan Fashion Week on Saturday. Florence Pugh even wore one of the label’s risque designs in her first British Vogue cover last week — the circle neckline of her puff-shouldered black dress scooping just above the belly button, acting as a full-frontal frame for her bra.
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    On Monday, Kendall Jenner stepped out onto the L’Oreal Paris womenswear runway in a scarlet red Mugler gown that might have looked familiar to anyone with a sharp memory of 1999.

    The front of the dress was slashed open across Jenner’s right shoulder, exposing a matching denier bra. The peekaboo moment conjured up memories of another example of fashionable flashing: Lil’ Kim’s purple embellished jumpsuit at the VMAs 26 years earlier. On the red carpet, Kim’s left breast was almost entirely revealed by an asymmetrical cut — a mirror image of Jenner’s neckline — save for a matching purple nipple pasty.
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    Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.

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    Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.

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    You can now order your Spirit Halloween costume on Uber Eats
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    Uber is cashing in on spooky season.

    The ridehailing company will now deliver costumes, makeup, and even decorations from Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, Uber announced in a press release Friday.

    Big-box retailers are getting into Halloween earlier and earlier, suggesting American consumers continue spending on the October holiday even as they pull back from other discretionary purchases.

    Customers in the US and Canada can buy their Chipotle burrito costume for the same price as in store, but without having to visit the seasonal Halloween store that pops up in abandoned storefronts every year, Uber said. Of course, there will still be the fees associated with Uber Eats delivery.

    Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.

    “The holiday season officially kicks off this time of year, and households across the country are looking to on-demand delivery to get what’s needed—now,” said Beryl Sanders, director of US grocery and retail partnerships at Uber, in a statement.

    Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.

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    Automatic takeoffs are coming for passenger jets and they’re going to redraw the map of the sky
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    In late 1965, at what’s now London Heathrow airport, a commercial flight coming from Paris made history by being the first to land automatically.

    The plane – A Trident 1C operated by BEA, which would later become British Airways – was equipped with a newly developed extension of the autopilot (a system to help guide the plane’s path without manual control) known as “autoland.”

    Today, automatic landing systems are installed on most commercial aircraft and improve the safety of landings in difficult weather or poor visibility.

    Now, nearly 60 years later, the world’s third largest aircraft manufacturer, Brazil’s Embraer, is introducing a similar technology, but for takeoffs.

    Called “E2 Enhanced Take Off System,” after the family of aircraft it’s designed for, the technology would not only improve safety by reducing pilot workload, but it would also improve range and takeoff weight, allowing the planes that use it to travel farther, according to Embraer.

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    Uber is cashing in on spooky season.

    The ridehailing company will now deliver costumes, makeup, and even decorations from Spirit Halloween, the largest Halloween retailer in North America, Uber announced in a press release Friday.

    Big-box retailers are getting into Halloween earlier and earlier, suggesting American consumers continue spending on the October holiday even as they pull back from other discretionary purchases.

    Customers in the US and Canada can buy their Chipotle burrito costume for the same price as in store, but without having to visit the seasonal Halloween store that pops up in abandoned storefronts every year, Uber said. Of course, there will still be the fees associated with Uber Eats delivery.

    Spirit Halloween has 1,525 locations.

    “The holiday season officially kicks off this time of year, and households across the country are looking to on-demand delivery to get what’s needed—now,” said Beryl Sanders, director of US grocery and retail partnerships at Uber, in a statement.

    Since the pandemic, different types of retailers have partnered with Uber to deliver their goods – such as Olive Garden for its breadsticks and pasta. Uber Eats has also partnered with Big Lots, Lowe’s, Michael’s and Party City for on-demand delivery.

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    In late 1965, at what’s now London Heathrow airport, a commercial flight coming from Paris made history by being the first to land automatically.

    The plane – A Trident 1C operated by BEA, which would later become British Airways – was equipped with a newly developed extension of the autopilot (a system to help guide the plane’s path without manual control) known as “autoland.”

    Today, automatic landing systems are installed on most commercial aircraft and improve the safety of landings in difficult weather or poor visibility.

    Now, nearly 60 years later, the world’s third largest aircraft manufacturer, Brazil’s Embraer, is introducing a similar technology, but for takeoffs.

    Called “E2 Enhanced Take Off System,” after the family of aircraft it’s designed for, the technology would not only improve safety by reducing pilot workload, but it would also improve range and takeoff weight, allowing the planes that use it to travel farther, according to Embraer.

    “The system is better than the pilots,” says Patrice London, principal performance engineer at Embraer, who has worked on the project for over a decade. ”That’s because it performs in the same way all the time. If you do 1,000 takeoffs, you will get 1,000 of exactly the same takeoff.”

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    Sea robins are fish with ‘the wings of a bird and multiple legs like a crab’
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    Some types of sea robins, a peculiar bottom-dwelling ocean fish, use taste bud-covered legs to sense and dig up prey along the seafloor, according to new research.

    Sea robins are so adept at rooting out prey as they walk along the ocean floor on their six leglike appendages that other fish follow them around in the hope of snagging some freshly uncovered prey themselves, said the authors of two new studies published Thursday in the journal Current Biology.

    David Kingsley, coauthor of both studies, first came across the fish in the summer of 2016 after giving a seminar at the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Kingsley is the Rudy J. and Daphne Donohue Munzer Professor in the department of developmental biology at Stanford University’s School of Medicine.

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    “I’d never seen a fish that looked like it was made of body parts from many different types of animals.”
    Kingsley and his colleagues decided to study sea robins in a lab setting, uncovering a wealth of surprises, including the differences between sea robin species and the genetics responsible for their unusual traits, such as leglike fins that have evolved so that they largely function as sensory organs.

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    A Thai crocodile farmer who goes by the nickname “Crocodile X” said he killed more than 100 critically endangered reptiles to prevent them from escaping after a typhoon damaged their enclosure.

    Natthapak Khumkad, 37, who runs a crocodile farm in Lamphun, northern Thailand, said he scrambled to find his Siamese crocodiles a new home when he noticed a wall securing their enclosure was at risk of collapsing. But nowhere was large or secure enough to hold the crocodiles, some of which were up to 4 meters (13 feet) long.

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    Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s most powerful storm this year, swept across southern China and Southeast Asia this month, leaving a trail of destruction with its intense rainfall and powerful winds. Downpours inundated Thailand’s north, submerging homes and riverside villages, killing at least nine people.

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