最新公布的5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数已经开始反映出了普通家庭的担忧，国会共和党人则借此向拜登4万亿美元刺激计划施压。
就业复苏放缓、通胀压力骤增，两大议题正在让美国政府新一轮刺激计划前景面临考验。
上月非农爆冷、CPI破4对于正在从疫情中复苏的美国经济而言无疑不是好消息，不少人想起了上世纪70年代的大通胀时期。最新公布的5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数已经开始反映出了普通家庭的担忧，国会共和党人则借此向拜登4万亿美元刺激计划施压。
相对而言，美股处于历史高位依然体现了投资者对美国的信心。白宫经济顾问委员会主席劳斯（CeciliaRouse）上周表示，经济不会瞬间痊愈。群体免疫需要数周时间，因疫情而失业的人们也需要时间来找到合适的工作。通胀问题将在未来几个月内自行解决。多位美联储官员也在近期公开讲话中重申了通胀超调是暂时性的观点，但未来经济会像美国政府和美联储预期的那样演绎吗？
就业供需矛盾成痛点
虽然非农数据不尽如人意，美国劳动力市场复苏随着经济重启依然在不断推进，机构普遍预期下半年就业形势有望进一步改善。美国劳工部数据显示，全美初请失业金人数已经连续四周回到50万关口以下。与经济复苏初期相比，重回市场的劳动者数量与企业招工需求之间的矛盾开始逐渐显现。3月份全美职位空缺数量首次突破800万个，创历史新高。
有关失业救济金的争论愈演愈烈。根据3月推出的联邦救济计划，领取失业救济金的美国人在常规州福利的基础上，每周额外获得300美元补充失业救济金，这意味着失业者的平均收入，要比全职工作最低时薪15美元更高。一边是苦于招工的雇主，另一边是数百万失业者，这种现象可能会在未来几个月抑制经济增长。
牛津经济研究院首席经济学家达科（GregoryDaco）在报告中指出，早期数据显示，5月份的就业报告也可能疲弱。如果工人们不接受工作，不管是出于什么原因——继续担心疾病、缺乏儿童保育、失业救济金高于通常水平，严重的供应限制依然难以解决，问题是怎么让人们回来？这是一个不同于为经济注入刺激的问题。
美国商会副会长布拉德利（NeilBradley）早前针对非农报告发表声明警告称，决策者现在应该采取的第一个步骤是结束每周300美元的补充失业救济金，‘给不工作的人发工资，正在抑制本应更强劲的就业市场。我们需要全面的方法来处理我们的劳动力问题，以及空缺职位对我们经济复苏所构成的真正威胁’。
第一财经记者注意到，5月初南卡罗来纳州和蒙大拿州已将劳动力短缺原因直指联邦失业救济金，并率先采取行动陆续取消救济金条款。截至目前，全美已有十多个州州长跟进并决定提前结束政府救济金的发放。
美联储内部始终将就业复苏视为关键议题，其重要性甚至超过了通胀预期，问题看来依然很棘手。里士满联储主席巴尔金上周表示，如何疏通劳动力市场的问题将是一个重点问题。如果时间过长，今年的整体经济增长可能会受到限制。
大通胀会重演吗？
除了劳动力市场不稳定这一挑战外，如何应对物价上涨风险也是政府能否推进刺激计划的关键前提。由于人们担心通胀压力，最新公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数意外大幅下挫至三个月低位，未来12个月消费者通胀预期升至4.6%，创最近10年新高。
资产管理机构BKAssetManagement宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（BorisSchlossberg）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，在过去几个月里越来越明显的感受是，美国经济从疫情中恢复的速度比预期的要快，而且供应链瓶颈显然对投入品价格产生了强烈的上行影响，这些压力已在各种制造业调查的价格构成部分显现出来。
过去美联储将通胀与失业水平挂钩，认为低失业率会推高物价，而失业率的下降为何时调整货币政策以避免物价上涨过快提供了线索。2013年耶伦领导的美联储决定采取先发制人的策略，不希望在政策调整路径上去适应持续改善的经济。在美联储宣布缩减量化宽松的计划后，美国整体失业率从7%左右开始逐步回落。
如今美联储在进行一次相反的尝试：耐心等待失业率不断下降，而经济不会出现太多通胀失控的危险。美联储副主席克拉里达12日在出席全美商业经济协会活动时表示，重启20万亿美元的经济体所需的时间可能要比关闭经济所需的时间更长，随着经济重新开放，物价上涨将是一次性的，2022年和2023年的通胀率将恢复到或略高于2%的长期目标。
不少人对此持怀疑态度，基数效应短期内可能被化解，但大流行导致的供应链瓶颈、服务业需求激增带来的用工成本压力，以及政府新一轮基础设施投资计划都可能对物价产生中长期影响。美国承包商联合会首席经济学家西蒙森（KenSimonson）指出，从2020年4月到上月，建筑用材料价格上涨19.7%，是1986年有统计以来最大涨幅。
40多年前大通胀时期的一幕因此被频频提及。上世纪70年代，由于布雷顿森林体系终结和石油危机，美国通胀率持续走高，并在1980年达到13.5%的峰值。当时美国除了依赖进口石油，经济与全球的关联度并不高。大多数消费者购买的商品都是在美国制造的，美国工人的工资在工会的支持下不断上涨，石油危机和收入上升的共同作用造成了美国历史上最大规模的通胀潮。在卡特总统任期内，美国每月平均增加21.5万个工作岗位，失业率却在上升，最终导致其连任失败。
施罗斯伯格向记者分析道，如今供应链约束正在加剧供需矛盾，而政府财政支持则不断注入流动性，因此通胀预期不断上行。从历史经验看，需求驱动的通胀往往是暂时的，因为价格上升会推动市场供应快速响应以满足需求，现在美国也有足够的生产能力来做到这一点，关键在于供应链问题如何解决，随着全球疫苗接种逐步推广，疫情防控形势下半年逐渐好转，有望改变这一点。他认为，真正的通胀螺旋发生在工资涨幅开始跟上物价水平的时候。当今环境与70年代的一个关键区别是劳动力绝对缺乏定价权，这一点从政府最低工资谈判的艰难程度可见一斑。因此，他对美国经济前景持乐观态度，同时通胀持续恶化的可能性不大。
摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（JamieDimon）本月初在接受美国媒体采访时指出，美国经济即将迎来一轮繁荣，但如果刺激计划安排不得当，之前的努力可能会被浪费。他当时列举了一些迹象，小企业和低收入工人在疫情中遭受的损失更大，通货膨胀压力较大，资本市场估值高企。‘如果我们只是投入大量的钱，而这些钱又被浪费掉了，就会有大麻烦。例如，一个高速公路规划应该详细说明要建多少英里，花费多少，以及何时建成。如果学校不以毕业率和就业率来衡量，为社区大学提供免费学费是行不通的。我担心的是这些钱将如何使用，政府需要非常清楚他们想要实现什么。’戴蒙说。
对于拜登而言，通胀和就业已经成为了其上任以来面临的首批重大挑战，如何在后疫情时代经济复苏周期中实现‘重建更好未来’的竞选口号，在国会分裂的情况下推进新一轮刺激计划，未来的工作看起来并不轻松。
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Opposite a bed in central London, light filters through a stained-glass window depicting, in fragments of copper and blue, Jesus Christ.
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The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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Some great apes realize when a human partner doesn’t know something and are capable of communicating information to them to change their behavior, a new study shows.
Researchers from Johns Hopkins University studying bonobos found that they would point to where treats were hidden if they could see their human partner didn’t know where they were, according to a statement from the university, published Monday.
Working with three male bonobos, study co-author Luke Townrow, a Johns Hopkins PhD student, would sit across a table from one of the animals as another person placed a treat under one of three cups.
In some cases, Townrow would be allowed to see which cup the treat was under, and the bonobo would wait for him to pass it the food.
At other times, he would not be able to see where the treat was, and the bonobo would point to the right cup to help him find the food.
The “seemingly simple experiment that demonstrated for the first time that apes will communicate unknown information in the name of teamwork,” the statement reads.
And study co-author Chris Krupenye, a Johns Hopkins assistant professor of psychological and brain sciences, told CNN that the study “is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that a non-human primate understands when someone else is ignorant.”
This ability to intuit gaps in others’ knowledge is known as theory of mind.
“As humans we have theory of mind, the ability to think about others’ perspectives,” Krupenye told CNN on Tuesday.
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
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Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?
The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.
Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.
When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.
We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.
In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.
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Thieves have stolen four ancient artifacts, including an approximately 2,500-year-old gold helmet, after using explosives to break into a museum in the Netherlands.
The daring heist took place at Drents Museum in Assen during the early hours of Saturday morning, according to Dutch police, who said they received a report of an explosion at 3:45 a.m. local time.
CCTV footage released by police shows the suspects opening an exterior door before a blast sends sparks and smoke into the air. The thieves made off with three gold bracelets, dating from around 50 BC, as well as the 5th-century BC Helmet of Cotofenesti, a historically important artifact on loan from the National History Museum of Romania in Bucharest.
The items were part of an exhibition about the Dacians, an ancient society that occupied much of present-day Romania before being conquered by the Romans. On show since July, “Dacia: Empire of Gold and Silver” featured treasures borrowed from institutions across Romania.
In a press release on its website, Drents Museum described the Helmet of Cotofenesti — which was discovered in a Romanian village almost a century ago — as a “masterpiece.” Its design features mythological scenes and a pair of eyes, located above the wearers’, that were thought to deter enemies during battle while protecting against the “evil eye.”
The exhibition was set to conclude Sunday, though Drents Museum remained closed through the weekend due to the robbery. Its premises were damaged by the explosion, though no injuries were reported, the museum said.
Dutch police announced that they are working with global police agency Interpol and had, as of Sunday, received more than 50 tip-offs. Investigators are currently looking for information about a gray car that was stolen from the nearby city of Alkmaar earlier in the week and was discovered around four miles from the crime scene, on fire, shortly after the overnight heist.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.
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Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.
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Members of the M23 armed troupe slog alongside residents throughout a concourse of the Keshero neighborhood in Goma, on Monday. AFP/Getty Images
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A resister coalition claimed the capture of the biggest conurbation in the Representative Republic of Congo’s mineral-rich eastern область this week, pushing ruin against intransigence from guidance troops backed not later than regional and UN intervention forces.
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“AFC-M23 controls Goma,” Victor Tesongo, an AFC spokesperson, told CNN Monday, adding that “Goma demolish below pressure” after the club’s earlier sequestration of the neighbourhood towns of Minova and Sake.
The Congolese government has despite everything to validate the rebels’ takeover but acknowledges their self-assurance in the metropolis, money of the eastern North Kivu province. It announced Sunday it had intrude perspicacious ties with neighboring Rwanda, which it accuses of equipping the collection with both weapons and troops, and recalled its thoughtful stake from the nation. A Rwandan oversight spokesperson did not change or recognize the woods’s advocate repayment for M23 when asked by means of CNN.
More than a dozen unassimilable peacekeepers, as incredibly as the military governor of North Kivu hinterlands, from been killed in current days troublesome to fend unlikely the rebels, as thousands of locals hightail it their advance into Goma.
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These partnerships combine public sector oversight and private sector efficiency, leading to shared risks and rewards. They facilitate diverse financial resources and innovative solutions for airport projects.
Revenue Diversification
Exploring non-aeronautical revenue streams, such as retail concessions and property leases, can significantly bolster an airport's financial resilience. Such diversification allows for a steady income flow independent of ticket sales.
Sustainable Financing
Adopting sustainable financial practices, including green bonds and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria, aligns with modern ecological standards and attracts environmentally conscious investors.
Challenges and Opportunities
While aerodrome finance offers numerous benefits, it also poses certain challenges. High capital costs, regulatory hurdles, and fluctuating passenger demands can impact financial stability. However, these challenges also present opportunities for innovation and improvement.
Tech-Driven Solutions: Embracing technology like AI and predictive analytics can enhance decision-making and financial planning.
Collaboration: Strengthening ties with stakeholders, including airlines and government agencies, can streamline financial operations and capital investments.
Ultimately, the goal of aerodrome finance is to support the sustainable growth and modernization of airports, ensuring their pivotal role in global connectivity remains strong.
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