人民币(6.4391, 0.0042, 0.07%)中间价调升102点 站上近三年高位 来源：经济参考报
人民币中间价调升102点 站上近三年高位
专家预计强势双向震荡格局有望持续
中国外汇交易中心数据显示，19日人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.4255，较前一交易日上调102个基点，升至5月12日以来最高，逼近2018年6月19日报价6.4235的高点。
对于人民币走高原因，光大银行金融市场部分析师周茂华表示，近期人民币对美元维持一个相对强势格局主要受两方面因素推动，一是国内经济延续良好复苏态势，外贸维持高景气度；二是近期美联储继续释放鸽派信号，导致近期美元指数(90.1451, -0.0288, -0.03%)继续走弱推动。此外，中国银行研究院研究员王有鑫认为，中国不断扩大金融开放力度，货币政策保持相对稳健，国内营商环境不断优化，在此带动下，全球跨境资本更加重视人民币资产的避险属性和投资回报，跨境资本流入增加，也带动人民币汇率走强。
今年以来，人民币对美元中间价汇率双向波动愈加明显。2021年年初至2月，人民币对美元中间价汇率表现为明显的升值趋势；2月10日升值达到高点之后开始呈现贬值趋势，一直到3月31日迎来6.57的低点，这区间总体为贬值；4月以来，人民币对美元中间价汇率表现为波动升值的趋势。
展望人民币后续走势，业内人士预计人民币有望保持在合理均衡水平附近强势双向震荡格局。
周茂华判断，年内人民币对美元汇率在6.4-6.8区间附近波动。主要是国内经济延续良好复苏态势，国内物价温和可控，支持政策不急转弯，全球经济复苏逐步趋同；美欧经济复苏逐步趋同，美联储维持低利率超宽松环境，将制约美元指数大幅上行空间。他进一步指出，人民币汇率双向波动常态化，以及全球经济、政策分化市场波动加剧，国内外贸企业需要善用外汇衍生工具管理汇率波动风险。
交通银行金融研究中心首席研究员唐建伟分析，由于2021年人民币汇率升值与贬值的因素同时存在，预计人民币汇率难有趋势性升值或贬值行情，2021年内美元对人民币汇率升破6或贬破7的概率都很小。预计2021年人民币汇率仍将保持双向波动的特征，延续稳中略升的趋势，预计维持在6.3至6.7波动区间，中枢在6.4至6.5左右。全年汇率升值幅度预计将明显小于2020年。
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