为什么夸张的人民币汇率预测会广泛传播?

2021年05月25日 6479点热度 0人点赞 1,275条评论

“人民币国际化条件下,我们管不了人民币汇率,中国中央银行最终要放弃汇率目标,人民币汇率是全球所有市场主体对人民币的偏好、预期和交易决定的。人民币在中长期内将持续对美元升值,既是中国经济持续增长、人民币相对购买力不断提高的结果,也是美联储搞量化宽松和不断扩表的后果之一。如果人民币成为了周边国家以及与中国有密切投资贸易往来国家的货币锚,这些货币都将对美元升值。“

这一报道引起了很多人的关注,我们同意周所长关于“人民币在中长期对美元升值”这一观点,但是对于“持续升值”的说法有所保留,更可能的情况是“在波动中升值”。中美两国经济发展前景并不会是一强一弱的线性发展,汇率受到多重因素影响。实际上,过去美元量化宽松和不断扩表的时期,美元指数(89.7713-0.0619-0.07%)以及对主要货币的汇率基本上处在升值而非贬值周期,即使如此也谈不上“持续”升值。未来中国经济和美国经济一样都会遇到各种各样的挑战,但全球经济遇到逆风期时,美元作为储备货币的避险功能就会发挥明显的作用,推动美元升值。

有趣的是,据说国内一位经济杂文家就在上周提出一个观点,认为人民币兑美元汇率会从2024年就升到3的水平,然后就有不少读者认为这个观点符合周所长的说法,因此决定抛售手上的美元。没想到,有朋友把这个观点转发给我,问我如何评价。

坦率讲,我的第一反应就是哭笑不得,因为我在多年前就十分熟悉这位经济杂文家,我印象里他从2000年开始一直是持续看空中国经济的代表,他的观点一度很有市场,但显然他对中国经济发展做出了严重的误判。也因此,在过去十年,他的文章已经没有了什么影响力,我几乎再也没有看到过他的观点。

很快我在另外一个微信群看到有人转述这位经济杂文家的观点,说他认为人民币汇率会从2024年到2045年升到3与4之间。这个表述依然很模糊,到底是2024年就进入这个区间,还是要接近2045年才会达到?论据到底是什么?有人把他的文章转到微信群,可是我点击发现,作者居然自己删除了这篇文章。然后我试图在网上搜索他的文章,却怎么也找不到。

现在大家就能够看到互联网时代的传播特征:只要有人发表一个惊世骇俗的观点,就会有人相信,而且广为传播,尽管作者本人过去的经济分析记录不佳。即使作者删掉自己的文章,其观点已经可以影响一部分人的投资决定。

我可以告诉大家的是,2045年人民币和美元的汇率是多少,没有人可以拿出可靠的数据进行分析,实际上经济学迄今为止也没有发展出一个能够预测汇率的理论,如果说有最接近真实情况的理论,那就是“汇率无法预测”,但这并不代表汇率市场不理性,相反,恰恰是因为汇率市场太理性,能够及时吸收各种各样的信息,才使得任何个人依靠有限信息做出的预测几乎没有可能连续准确。

当然,汇率无法预测并不代表我们应该放弃预测,实际上,经济分析师包括我们在内总是在利用有限的信息进行预测,而我们的预测结果通常是对错各占一半。我们说对的时候要保持谦虚谨慎,并牢记这并不意味着我们接下来的预测仍然正确。

相信即使是这位经济杂文家的粉丝,也不会对2045年人民币兑美元汇率是不是真的会升到3与4之间感兴趣,她更关心的是这种可能会不会在2024年就发生,否则她也不至于现在就开始考虑卖掉美元。

我们不妨反过来思考一下,假如2024年人民币对美元汇率真的升到3与4之间会怎么样?既然我们现在看不到该作者的原文和论据,我们只好用自己的方法来进行一些推算。

首先,我们知道2020年中国内地的GDP实现了超百万亿元人民币的突破,达到了101.6万亿元,相当于14.7万亿美元,也就是计算时采取了人民币对美元汇率为6.9的值,而美国在2020年的GDP是20.9万亿美元。中国GDP相当于美国的70%。

其次,我们查一下IMF对中美两国未来经济增长的预测。需要指出的是,IMF的预测模型是经济学家迄今为止基于最新的理论,建立的最大型最复杂的模型,涉及到成千上万个相互关联的数学公式。即使如此,我也必须坦白告诉大家,IMF过去的预测准确度实在是不高。但既然没人比IMF做得更好,我们先接受他们的预测。

IMF最新的数据库显示,他们预测美国的名义GDP到2024年达到25.8万亿美元:

为什么夸张的人民币汇率预测会广泛传播?

同时,IMF预测中国的名义GDP到2024年会达到141.3万亿元人民币,或者20.9万亿美元。也就是说,IMF认为2024年人民币对美元汇率为6.75。中国的GDP将达到美国的81%。

为什么夸张的人民币汇率预测会广泛传播?

假如人民币汇率在2024年升到3,就意味着中国2024年的GDP达到47.1万亿美元,是美国的1.82倍。假如人民币汇率在2024年升到4,就意味着中国2024年的GDP达到35.3万亿美元,是美国的1.37倍。

我相信,大家在过去一年听到各种关于中国经济赶超美国的估计,其中最乐观的认为会在2028年实现,而最悲观的则基于人口结构比较认为永远无法实现,但是按照这位经济杂文家说的人民币汇率在2024年升值到3和4之间的观点,那中国经济会在2024年之前,也许在2022或者2023年就要超过美国了。

大家觉得这可能吗?如果这不可能,那问题是出在IMF的预测上,还是出在这个汇率预测上?答案应该是不言自明的吧。这就是为什么当朋友要我对这个经济杂文家的观点进行点评时,我感到非常无奈的原因。

为什么这么不靠谱的预测会有人相信呢?答案其实和人类的进化有着密切的关系。人类,也就是智人的进化史大约20万年,19万年处在原始社会阶段,1万年进入到文明社会,虽然我们要面对文明社会的各种新鲜事物,比如汇率,但我们的大脑思考功能仍然主要停留在19万年的进化过程中。这样就带来两种结果:

第一就是我们的大脑非常懒惰,因为原始社会食物和能量获取有限,大脑体积不大,但却要消耗掉人体四分之一的能量,因此我们的大脑在进化中形成不愿意工作的状态,也就是非常懒惰,不愿意深入思考复杂的问题,例如影响汇率的因素太多,大家不愿意去细致分析。宁愿把这个思考过程交给别人来完成。一些所谓的“大师”或者“大咖”就拥有了大量的粉丝,哪怕他们说的观点,粉丝们都听不太懂;

第二就是我们的大脑非常喜欢一些耸人听闻的观点,而且一旦涉及到经济利益,就会特别愿意相信一些哪怕是纯粹编造的“故事”。大家只要读过《人类简史》这本书就会对此印象深刻,实际上,相信“故事”才是人类这种动物和其他动物最本质的区别。

平淡无奇的观点引不起大家的兴趣,耸人听闻的观点却可以激发人脑的活力,粉丝可能都不知道或者不记得“大师”们说了什么,但是对于结论却印象深刻,并且可以继续发挥想象力,越想越觉得“大师”说的有道理。于是就出现了前面提到的一幕,把一个经济杂文家并不可靠的观点,和人民银行金融研究所所长的观点结合到一起,并且深信不疑。我相信周所长知道后,也一样会啼笑皆非。

请大家记住,理解人类大脑的缺陷,是做好投资必须掌握的知识。我在喜马拉雅FM推出的《经济学家夏春的投资必修课》就详细分析了各种各样的错误投资行为,都和大脑的缺陷有密切的关系。深刻理解这些,尽量避免错误,才能够提升自己的投资能力。

最后,给大家留一个思考题,在移动互联网和新经济时代,哪一种类型的资产能够最好的地利用人类大脑的缺陷?

    Kratos

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    Кэшбэк до 10%
    Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
    Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!

    Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!

    Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
    Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:

    Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
    Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
    Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
    Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
    Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
    Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!

    2025年2月18日
  • HerbertMon

    Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
    Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
    <a href=https://lucky-jetts.com>lucky jet bonus</a>
    Об игре
    Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.

    Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.

    Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
    В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.

    Актуальные бонусные предложения
    Бонус 500% на первый депозит
    Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
    Еженедельные акции и фриспины
    Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
    Кэшбэк до 10%
    Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
    Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!

    Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!

    Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
    Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:

    Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
    Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
    Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
    Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
    Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
    Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!

    2025年2月18日
  • MatthewEduch

    Most flights don’t want you joining the Mile-High Club. This company encourages it
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    In our travel news roundup this week: the rise in solo dining, where to save money at US ski resorts, plus the Californian hot-air balloon company offering a rather cheeky package.

    Your love keeps lifting me higher
    Is it getting hot in here, or is a gas-burner propelling a dirigible above our heads?

    A California-based hot-air balloon company is offering mile-high flights – with amorous Mile-High Club privileges – over the Temecula countryside.

    Guests can enjoy the views with a whole basket to themselves – and a privacy screen separating the pilot compartment from the passenger cabin.

    The pilot, who Magical Adventure Balloon Rides promises will be wearing protective hearing gear and focused solely on flying, ascends the balloon to 5,280 feet (about 1,610 meters), which is about 2,000 feet higher than a typical recreational flight.

    While intimate clinches are usually thoroughly discouraged in the skies, the company invites you to bring your own bedding and music playlist. A complimentary Champagne breakfast is included to fuel your frolics, of whatever sort.

    Pricing for two passengers starts at $1,400. If your mantra is “the more the merrier,” each additional adult in the larger 10-person basket is $159.

    The Mile-High Club flight is just one of a host of packages on offer, from wine tours to company picnics, the rest of which are considerably more family-friendly.
    All by myself
    Sometimes it can seem like the world is full of lovers floating high on cloud nine, but don’t fret if you’re going it alone this Valentine’s season: You’re bang on trend.

    Millennials and Gen Z are breaking down the stigma attached to solo dining in an era when more Americans live alone than ever before. Some do it for convenience; some do it for freedom — either way, reservations for one are on the rise.

    Once you’ve mastered dining alone, it’s time for bigger challenges, such as walking across Saudi Arabia. British explorer Alice Morrison, who has been called “Indiana Jones for girls,” is in the middle of her five-month trek of 2,500 kilometers (about 1,550 miles).

    Others are opting for a permanent adventure. Californian Jason Bennett gave up his life in San Francisco for a new home in Colombia. Today he says his happiness is “off the charts.”

    2025年2月18日
  • EugeneMiz

    Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
    Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
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    Об игре
    Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.

    Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.

    Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
    В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.

    Актуальные бонусные предложения
    Бонус 500% на первый депозит
    Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
    Еженедельные акции и фриспины
    Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
    Кэшбэк до 10%
    Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
    Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!

    Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!

    Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
    Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:

    Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
    Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
    Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
    Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
    Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
    Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!

    2025年2月18日
  • Jerryeveda

    Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
    Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
    <a href=https://lucky-jetts.com>бот лаки джет</a>
    Об игре
    Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.

    Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.

    Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
    В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.

    Актуальные бонусные предложения
    Бонус 500% на первый депозит
    Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
    Еженедельные акции и фриспины
    Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
    Кэшбэк до 10%
    Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
    Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!

    Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!

    Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
    Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:

    Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
    Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
    Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
    Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
    Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
    Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!

    2025年2月18日
  • KennethLop

    Scores of unexploded World War II bombs discovered under children’s playground
    <a href=https://t.me/Lucky_Jetteam>лаки джет играть</a>
    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

    Local officials in the town of Wooler, Northumberland called in bomb disposal experts after workers involved in a planned overhaul of Scotts Play Park found unexploded ordnance, the parish council said in a statement sent to CNN on Monday.

    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

    The company told CNN that the bombs date from World War II.

    According to the parish council, all of the bombs need to be found and removed before the park can be reopened. It said 174 devices had been found so far.

    2025年2月18日
  • MichaelAbord

    Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
    <a href=https://kra27s.cc>кракен онион</a>
    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

    2025年2月18日
  • PhillipWoona

    Look of the Week: Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl pants signal the return of flares
    <a href=https://kra27s.cc>kraken зайти</a>
    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

    2025年2月18日
  • Michaelhaist

    Cute baby animals bring visitors to zoos and aquariums. What happens when they grow up?
    <a href=https://t.me/traffictemnik>арбитраж с нуля</a>
    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

    The real jackpot, though, is merchandise. Stuffed animals, T-shirts, fridge magnets, keychains, kids’ books and other branded products are a major way for zoos and aquariums to make money.

    2025年2月18日
  • Davideffem

    Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
    New York
    CNN

    <a href=https://blsp2tor.com>блэкспрут</a>
    Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.

    But over a week into his presidency, Trump has yet to enact any new tariffs.
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    That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.

    The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.

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    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

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    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

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    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

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    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

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    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

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    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

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    One of the best things that can happen to a zoo or aquarium is for one of their resident animals to go viral.

    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

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    This year’s Super Bowl halftime show was hardly a fashion extravaganza, with headliner Kendrick Lamar keeping things simple in a backwards cap and motorbike-style varsity jacket, which he kept on throughout.

    And without the costume-change roulette we’ve come to expect of halftime shows, the internet fixated on one item in particular: his jeans.

    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
    Opinions were, as ever, divided on social media. Some users described Lamar’s flares as “women’s jeans” and “Hannah Montana pants,” earning him comparisons to everyone from Jennifer Aniston to country singer Lainey Wilson. Others joked that their moms were looking for a similar pair or that they nodded to millennials, for whom flares were a teenage staple.

    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

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    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

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    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

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    No. 15 LSU has been criticized for unveiling a live caged tiger in its stadium for the first time in almost a decade before they were routed 42-13 by No. 11 Alabama in their SEC showdown.

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    Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.

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    Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.

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    Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.

    An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.

    The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.

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    Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.

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    Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.

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    Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.

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    Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.

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    Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.

    An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.

    The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.

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    Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.

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    Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.

    An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.

    The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.

    And thus, the Minor Planet Center logged a new object, asteroid “2018 CN41.”

    Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.

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