
核心观点:
随着商品价格的显著上涨,通胀成为当前海内外宏观环境的重要变量和市场的热点话题,也成为市场认为影响美联储货币政策的重要因素。经济复苏带来的政策转向无可厚非,但是通胀是不是会成为当前美联储加快政策转向的助推剂呢?我们进一步回顾了2003-2005年美联储进入一轮加息周期的过程中,美联储对商品价格和通胀的看法。
通过梳理2003年1月-2006年1月美联储货币政策声明,我们有以下三点发现:第一,美联储关注CPI和核心CPI,对通胀看法的变化非常渐进,而且明显与大宗商品价格走势分;第二,供给约束可能被视为对经济有负面影响的因素;第三,美联储对于风险的评估始终在综合考虑可持续增长和价格稳定,且两者间存在关联。
从历史可见,商品价格上涨与美联储收紧货币政策之间的逻辑关系并不直接,一方面美联储进入加息周期并没有扭转大宗商品价格的上涨趋势,另一方面大宗商品价格的上涨并不直接体现为美联储认知中的通胀高企,因而并不直接助推美联储收紧政策。在经济复苏的初期,经济恢复的情况可能是对美联储政策更为关键的影响因素。
观察不同政策阶段的资产价格表现可见,美股在不同阶段均呈现上涨表现,但是随着货币政策边际收紧,道琼斯工业指数相对纳指的相对表现在改善;美元指数(90.0937, 0.0809, 0.09%)并没有显著改变弱势,美联储政策由宽松转向正常化可能带来短期冲击,但并不必然改变美元指数的弱势周期;美债收益率在宽松阶段下行,在维持阶段和加息周期中均有所上行,而在加息阶段上行幅度反而低于维持宽松的加息预备阶段。
以下为正文内容:
商品价格上涨,美联储会加速收紧吗?
随着商品价格的显著上涨,通胀成为当前海内外宏观环境的重要变量和市场的热点话题,也成为市场认为影响美联储货币政策的重要因素。对于不同国家/地区而言,大宗商品价格是内外通胀预期一致的基础。而对于市场机构与海外央行等政策制定者而言,商品价格上涨有着不同的含义,一方面,市场较为直接地将商品价格的上涨等同于通胀,将短期所见的情况线性外推至在长期;另一方面,央行强调CPI、核心CPI指标作为衡量通胀的关键指标,并且强调关注通胀的持续性和长期性。这使得市场和政策制定者在进行广泛的讨论。
当前情景的一个特征是供、需分别受到疫情和政策等不同因素的影响,各自发生变化,在这种情况下,美联储政策预期面临着两难困境:如果疫情恶化,那么供给恢复进一步受到约束,通胀乃至滞涨成为市场对于货币政策担忧的重点;如果疫情好转,那么经济复苏将使得货币政策维持宽松的必要性下降。经济复苏带来的政策转向无可厚非,但是通胀是不是会成为当前美联储加快政策转向的助推剂呢?
在经济复苏的大趋势下,美联储下一步的政策举措是货币政策正常化和削减月度购债规模(Taper),在《美联储政策的“两难”与Taper的潜在影响》中,我们已经分析了2013年美联储货币政策转向对于全球资本市场和新兴经济体的影响,本次美联储货币政策收紧的方式与顺序路径将与2013年接近。
不过,当前与2013-2016年相比存在较大差异,2011-2019年的强美元环境下,大宗商品价格处于下行周期中,而我们认为美元周期的影响或决定了诸多资产价格的中期趋势,因此对当前的参考意义或有不足。我们进一步回顾了2003-2005年美联储进入一轮加息周期的过程中,美联储对商品价格和通胀的看法。
90年代末,美国互联网泡沫不断累积,IT投资快速增长,经济走向过热。2000年互联网泡沫破灭、美股大跌,叠加此后爆发的“911事件”,美国经济陷入衰退,美联储连续降息,直到2004年5月,美联储才重新进入加息周期,在本轮加息周期中,美联储通过17次加息将联邦基金利率从1%上调至了5.25%。
我们梳理了美联储货币政策声明中货币政策的操作和对经济、通胀等问题的讨论。回顾2003年开始的大宗商品价格上涨时期,美联储政策可以分为三个阶段:
第一阶段:2003.1-2003.6,加大宽松;
第一阶段:2003.8-2004.5,维持宽松;
第三阶段:2004.6-2006.6,进入加息周期。
而对应来看,我们发现大宗商品价格涨幅最大的阶段实际上为第二阶段,CRB现货指数上涨22%,而美联储在这近10个月的时间内一直选择按兵不动。而在美联储开启加息周期并连续加息的2004年6月-2006年6月,CRB现货指数上涨10.2%,涨幅低于第二阶段。
通过梳理2003年1月-2006年1月美联储货币政策声明,我们有以下三点发现:
第一,美联储关注CPI和核心CPI,对通胀看法的变化非常渐进,而且明显与大宗商品价格走势分。化美联储对通胀的看法经历了“通胀下行可能性高于上行——核心消费价格上涨不明显——通胀数据有所上升,但通胀率相当低,资源使用也不充分——通胀数据有所上升但潜在通胀预期相对低——通胀和长期通胀预期仍得到良好控制——通胀压力继续上升但长期通胀预期仍得到良好控制”的渐进变化,且这种表态的变化与大宗商品价格的变化存在滞后性和低相关性:美联储始终在关注和探讨CPI(PCE)和核心CPI(PCE)的变化,而非与商品价格更为直接相关的短期PPI变化。
第二,供给约束可能被视为对经济有负面影响的因素。在对于经济的讨论中,由供给因素引起的油价上升实际上阶段性被美联储视作一个对经济有负面影响的因素,因为成本的抬升会对中下游构成成本端压力,从而抑制企业支出和经济扩张。
第三,美联储对于风险的评估始终在综合考虑可持续增长和价格稳定,且两者间存在关联。在对货币政策的考虑和风险评估层面,美联储也在考虑综合考虑经济可持续增长和价格稳定,并且通胀被视为资源是否得到充分利用的一个指征,并不孤立于经济,因而美联储对于风险的评估遵循了以下脉络:“经济疲软风险—通胀过低、通胀下行风险——物价稳定的风险趋于平衡——可持续增长和价格稳定的上行和下行风险大致相等”。
商品价格上涨与美联储收紧货币政策之间的逻辑关系并不直接,一方面美联储进入加息周期并没有扭转大宗商品价格的上涨趋势,另一方面大宗商品价格的上涨并不直接体现为美联储认知中的通胀高企,因而并不直接助推美联储收紧政策。在经济复苏的初期,经济恢复的情况可能是更为关键的影响因素。
观察不同政策阶段的资产价格表现可见,美股在不同阶段均呈现上涨表现,但是随着货币政策边际收紧,道琼斯工业指数相对纳指的相对表现在改善;美元指数并没有显著改变弱势;美债收益率在宽松阶段下行,在维持阶段和加息周期中均有所上行,而在加息阶段上行幅度反而低于维持宽松的加息预备阶段。
最后,我们仍然强调,美联储政策由宽松转向正常化可能带来短期冲击、带来美元指数反弹,但并不必然改变美元指数的弱势周期。以2003-2006年为例,美联储加息周期都没有显著改变美元的弱势。美元指数是一个相对关系,对应的宏观情景可能在于,虽然美联储进入加息周期是依据美国强劲的经济基本面,但是如果海外经济同样强劲甚至好于美国,则美元指数仍将回归弱势。

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The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.
The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.
So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?
In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.
Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
But does that still hold true in 2024?
According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.
“There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”
“If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.
Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”
On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.
The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.
New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.
And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.
Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.
For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.
But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.
The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.
Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.
Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.
He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.
It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.
While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.
“This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.
New Glenn’s first flight
Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.
Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.
Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.
The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.
“We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.
And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.
LOS ANGELES, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Firefighters were slowly
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Aircraft dropped water and fire retardant on steep hills to stem the eastward spread of the Palisades Fire and KTLA television reported that ground crews had managed to save a number of houses, although others were lost.
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Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.
Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.
He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.
It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.
While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.
“This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.
Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”
For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.
And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.
Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.
Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.
His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”
Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”
For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.
And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.
Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.
Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.
His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”
A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.
As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.
Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.
The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.
And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.
Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.
It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.
Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”
For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.
The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.
And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.
Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.
Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.
His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”
A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.
As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.
Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.
The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.
And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.
Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.
It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.
New Glenn’s first flight
Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.
Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.
Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.
The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.
“We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.
And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.
Summary
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have had a fiery 90-minute debate in Philadelphia - their first of the 2024 US presidential election
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After shaking hands - it was the first time they had met - the pair debated policy before moving onto more personal attacks
Harris said people leave Trump rallies early "out of exhaustion and boredom" - he said people don't go to hers in the first place
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Trump criticised Harris's record on immigration and the border, and also her shifting policy positions - Harris blamed him for "Trump abortion bans" and for the 6 January attacks on the US Capitol
Snap polls suggest Harris won the debate, but Trump says afterwards that she "lost very badly"
With the election taking place on 5 November, Harris is slightly ahead in national opinion polls - but polls are very tight in key battleground states
Shortly after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Harris on Instagram, calling her a ''gifted leader''
A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.
As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.
Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.
The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.
And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.
Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.
It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.
On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.
The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.
New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.
And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.
Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.
For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.
But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.
The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.
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Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
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Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.
“I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”
The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.
Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.
Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.
In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.
The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.
While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.
Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.
Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.
An executive order designed to speed up the rebuilding of lost homes in LA has been put in place by California Governor Gavin Newsom.
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The order suspends Ceqa review and the California Coastal Act, which work to minimise the environmental impact of proposed building projects, as well as suspending some permits in order to make rebuilding quicker and more affordable.
There are also protections against price gouging on services related to the fires such as building materials and storage services.
He says "one thing I won't give in to is delay. Delay is denial for people."
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"The executive order I signed today will help cut permitting delays, an important first step in allowing our communities to recover faster and stronger."
A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
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Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?
The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.
Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.
When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.
We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.
In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.
The mysterious cities of the dead carved into the sides of cliffs
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The ancient Lycians knew a thing or two about democracy. Two thousand years ago, the one-time rulers of modern-day Turkey’s southwestern corner had a fully functioning democratic federation that centuries later inspired America’s political structure.
While democracies everywhere might be facing turbulent times, another Lycian legacy remains steadfastly present in the Mediterranean region they used to call home. And this one is focused almost entirely around death.
Drive around the coast of this beautiful region and you’ll never be too far from a spectacular city of the dead – elaborate tombs carved by Lycians into the sides of cliffs overlooking towns, valleys and shorelines.
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That’s not all. Scattered throughout the countryside and towns are imposing sarcophagi that likely once held the remains of high and mighty denizens of Lycia. Indeed, they’re such a familiar sight that they’re often casually included as part of urban landscapes.
For visitors, especially those interested in history, tracking them down is an adventure all on its own.
While some are preserved in ticketed archaeological sites, others are free to explore — but can require Indiana Jones-level exploration skills, clambering up vertiginous hillsides, riding boats and delving into the undergrowth to find.
A good starting place is Fethiye, a low-key port city that’s a useful jumping-off point for great beaches and attractions all along Turkey’s so-called Turquoise Coast riviera. After a day of swimming in those glorious waters, it’s worth a sunset trek to the overlooking cliffs.
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Welcome to Owlto Finance
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What is Hop Exchange?
Hop Exchange is a decentralized protocol that facilitates efficient and cost-effective cross-chain cryptocurrency transfers. It aims to solve the challenges of interoperability between blockchain networks, enabling seamless asset movement without compromising security or incurring high fees.
Features of Hop Exchange
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Secure Transactions: Rely on advanced security protocols to protect your assets.
How Does Hop Exchange Work?
Hop Exchange functions by employing liquidity pools and multi-chain bridges. When a user initiates a cross-chain transfer, the protocol uses these pools to swap assets between the source and destination chains, effectively minimizing transaction times and costs.
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To start using Hop Exchange, follow these simple steps:
Connect your digital wallet to the Hop Exchange platform.
Select the source and destination networks for your transfer.
Input the amount of cryptocurrency you wish to move and authorize the transaction.
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Pendle Finance: Unlocking New Opportunities in DeFi
As the world of decentralized finance (DeFi) continues to evolve, Pendle Finance is at the forefront, offering innovative solutions for yield and trading. This platform has quickly become a go-to resource for individuals looking to maximize their crypto investments.
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What is Pendle Finance?
Pendle Finance is a DeFi protocol designed to provide enhanced yield management opportunities by leveraging tokenization of future yield. It allows users to trade tokenized yield, offering flexibility and potential for optimized earnings.
Key Features
Yield Tokenization: Convert future yield into tradable assets, enhancing liquidity.
Yield Trading: Enter and exit yield positions at strategic times to capitalize on market conditions.
Multi-Chain Support: Access a wide range of DeFi ecosystems through cross-chain functionality.
Benefits of Using Pendle Finance
Pendle Finance provides numerous benefits to its users, making it a compelling choice for DeFi enthusiasts and investors:
Diversified Investment Options: By tokenizing future yields, Pendle offers a variety of strategies to enhance your investment portfolio.
Market Flexibility: Trade yield tokens freely, allowing for strategic entry and exit points.
Enhanced Liquidity: Tokenization increases the liquidity of yields, offering more opportunities for dynamic financial strategies.
How to Get Started with Pendle
Embarking on your Pendle Finance journey is straightforward. Follow these steps to unlock the potential of yield trading:
Create an Account: Set up a user account on the Pendle Finance platform.
Link Your Wallet: Connect your cryptocurrency wallet to seamlessly manage transactions.
Start Trading: Explore the available yield tokens and start trading to optimize your returns.
Conclusion
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Welcome to SushiSwap: Your Gateway to Decentralized Finance
SushiSwap is a leading decentralized finance (DeFi) platform that allows users to trade cryptocurrencies directly from their digital wallets. Built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, SushiSwap is designed to offer a seamless, trustless, and secure trading experience.
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Here's what sets SushiSwap apart from other decentralized exchanges:
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Liquidity Pools: Provide liquidity to earn rewards from transaction fees and Sushi tokens.
Yield Farming: Stake your tokens and earn additional incentives with high returns.
Governance: Participate in community decision-making processes to shape the future of the platform.
How to Use SushiSwap
Follow these steps to get started on SushiSwap:
Connect Your Wallet: Select a compatible wallet like MetaMask to interact with the platform securely.
Select Tokens: Choose the cryptocurrencies you wish to swap.
Confirm Transaction: Review and confirm your transaction details.
Manage Liquidity: Optionally, add liquidity to pools and earn rewards.
Why Choose SushiSwap?
SushiSwap offers numerous advantages for crypto traders:
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Competitive fees and rewards mechanisms encourage active participation.
A diverse range of tokens and pairs expands your trading options.
Join the SushiSwap community now and transform the way you trade using our state-of-the-art platform.
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Stay updated with the latest developments and community news by joining SushiSwap’s social media channels and forums. Unlock the potential of decentralized trading today.
Unlock Your Financial Potential with Puffer Finance
In an ever-evolving economic landscape, finding the right financial partner is essential for achieving your investment goals. Puffer Finance stands out as a beacon of innovation and stability, offering a plethora of opportunities to enhance your wealth.
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Choosing the right financial institution is pivotal in ensuring the security and growth of your investments. Here are compelling reasons to partner with Puffer Finance:
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Services Offered by Puffer Finance
Puffer Finance prides itself on offering a wide range of services, each designed to cater to specific client needs and financial ambitions. These include:
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Our thorough investment management services provide strategic planning and execution to enhance your portfolio's performance.
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Whether you are saving for retirement or planning a major purchase, our personal financial planning services are tailored to help you achieve your ambitions.
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We offer strategies that not only aim to grow your wealth but also safeguard it against potential risks.
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What is Lido Finance?
Lido Finance is a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform that provides simple and efficient solutions for crypto staking. It allows users to stake their digital assets without locking them up, thus maintaining liquidity and flexibility.
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Why Choose Lido Finance?
Lido Finance provides several benefits to its users:
Liquidity: Unlike traditional staking, Lido issues liquid tokens that can be traded or used within other DeFi applications.
Flexibility: Avoid the rigid locking periods that come with typical staking protocols.
Security: Leverages the security and decentralization inherent in blockchain technology, ensuring your assets are safe.
How Does It Work?
Users can stake their assets via Lido's platform, which then delegates these assets across a set of trusted validators. In return, users receive staked tokens which represent their staked assets and accrue rewards over time.
Getting Started with Lido Finance
Follow these steps to begin staking:
Visit the Lido Finance website and connect your crypto wallet.
Select the asset you wish to stake, for instance, ETH.
Enter the amount and execute the transaction.
Receive staked tokens that represent your staked amount.
Join the Decentralized Finance Revolution
With Lido Finance, enjoy the benefits of staking without compromising on liquidity and flexibility. Start today and keep your crypto assets working round the clock.
Welcome to dYdX: The Future of Decentralized Trading
dYdX is a leading decentralized exchange (DEX) platform designed specifically for perpetual trading. Powered by a unique layer 2 solution, it offers zero gas fees and high-speed transactions, ideal for traders looking to maximize efficiency and minimize costs.
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To start trading on dYdX, simply connect your wallet and begin trading a wide range of perpetual contracts. Our ensures that both novice and experienced traders can navigate and execute trades with ease.
Trade Perpetual Contracts with Confidence
Perpetual contracts are a powerful trading tool that allows you to speculate on the future price movements of a variety of cryptocurrencies without owning the underlying asset. With dYdX, you can:
Leverage Up to 20x: Enhance your trading potential with leverage options tailored to your risk tolerance.
Variety of Pairs: Trade a diverse selection of cryptocurrency pairs across multiple markets.
Security at dYdX
Your security is paramount at dYdX. Our platform employs state-of-the-art security measures to protect your assets and data, ensuring peace of mind with every trade you make.
Join the dYdX Community
Join a global community of traders who are revolutionizing the way decentralized finance operates. Stay updated and connected through our social media channels and community forums.
Note: Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before engaging in cryptocurrency transactions.
Getting Started with Quickswap
Quickswap is revolutionizing the way we trade cryptocurrencies by offering a decentralized platform for seamless crypto trading. As a user-friendly decentralized exchange (DEX), Quickswap allows users to swap tokens effortlessly without the need for intermediaries. Here's a detailed guide to getting started with Quickswap.
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What is Quickswap?
Quickswap is a layer-2 decentralized exchange built on the Polygon network, which is known for its high-speed and low-cost transactions. This platform provides an efficient and secure way to trade a wide range of cryptocurrencies without enduring hefty fees typical of Ethereum-based DEXes.
Why Use Quickswap?
Low Fees: Thanks to the Polygon network, trading on Quickswap is significantly cheaper than on Ethereum-based platforms.
High Speed: Experience fast transaction speeds that enhance user experience and trading efficiency.
User-Friendly Interface: Quickswap's interface is designed to be intuitive, even for beginners, making it easy to trade cryptocurrencies.
How to Use Quickswap
Set Up a Crypto Wallet: You'll need a compatible wallet like MetaMask or Trust Wallet. Ensure it's connected to the Polygon network.
Fund Your Wallet: Purchase or transfer tokens into your wallet for trading.
Visit Quickswap Platform: Navigate to the Quickswap website and connect your wallet. This step is essential to access all features of the platform.
Start Trading: Select the tokens you want to swap. With its simple interface, you can execute trades in just a few clicks.
Tips for Effective Trading on Quickswap
To make the most out of your trading experience on Quickswap, consider these tips:
Keep an eye on the market trends and choose the right time for your trades.
Understand the token pairs and their liquidity status to avoid high slippage.
Regularly update your wallet and security settings to protect your assets.
Conclusion
Quickswap offers a robust platform for trading a wide range of cryptocurrencies efficiently. By leveraging the benefits of the Polygon network, it minimizes delays and costs associated with traditional crypto trading. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned trader, Quickswap empowers you to navigate the DeFi space with ease and confidence.
Understanding Venus Protocol: Your Gateway to DeFi
Venus Protocol has carved a niche in the fast-paced DeFi landscape by offering a one-stop solution for decentralized finance activities. Whether you're interested in lending, borrowing, or yield farming, Venus provides secure and scalable services on the blockchain.
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Why Choose Venus Protocol?
The Venus Protocol stands out because:
It operates on the Binance Smart Chain, ensuring fast and cost-effective transactions.
It offers a decentralized lending platform that allows users to earn interest by supplying assets.
The protocol enables borrowing against crypto collateral without the need for a trusted counterparty.
It supports a wide range of crypto assets, providing higher liquidity and flexibility.
Key Features of Venus Protocol
Lending and Borrowing
Venus Protocol facilitates decentralized lending and borrowing with minimal fees, supported by a robust risk management framework. Users can seamlessly supply assets to the protocol and earn interest, or borrow by simply collateralizing their holdings.
Automated Yield Farming
Maximize your returns with Venus Protocol's yield farming opportunities. By leveraging your assets, you can participate in governance and earn rewards in the form of XVS, Venus Protocol's native token.
Multi-Asset Support
The platform supports numerous cryptocurrencies, enabling diverse investment strategies and providing a convenient way to gain returns on multiple asset classes.
Getting Started with Venus Protocol
Start your DeFi journey with Venus Protocol by following these steps:
Create a Wallet: Use a compatible wallet like Metamask or Trust Wallet to interface with Venus.
Fund Your Wallet: Transfer crypto assets to your wallet to engage with the Venus Protocol.
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Welcome to Orbiter: Your Gateway to Financial Innovation
In the ever-evolving landscape of finance, Orbiter stands out as a pioneering platform dedicated to providing cutting-edge solutions for modern investors. As we navigate the future of digital assets and decentralized finance, Orbiter remains at the forefront, committed to innovation and accessibility.
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Maximize Your Crypto Trading with ParaSwap
If you're looking to enhance your cryptocurrency trading experience, it's time to explore ParaSwap. This innovative platform serves as a decentralized exchange aggregator, giving you the best deals on the market.
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Maximize your trading potential by leveraging the power of ParaSwap. With its aggregated approach to finding the best prices, efficiency, and transparency, ParaSwap stands out as a leading choice for cryptocurrency traders.
Welcome to Karak: Pioneering Blockchain Solutions
The world of blockchain is evolving rapidly, and Karak is at the forefront of this revolution. Whether you are a developer, an investor, or merely a tech enthusiast, Karak offers a unique blend of innovative solutions designed to meet the diverse needs of the blockchain community.
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is a sophisticated blockchain platform engineered to provide cutting-edge solutions that streamline processes and enhance efficiency. With a focus on decentralization, security, and speed, Karak integrates seamlessly with existing technologies to deliver a scalable blockchain experience.
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One of the standout aspects of Karak is its comprehensive suite of features aimed at solving complex blockchain issues.
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Unveiling the Potential of Kelp DAO
In today's rapidly evolving digital economy, Kelp DAO emerges as a transformative force in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi). By leveraging blockchain technology, Kelp DAO aims to improve governance and promote sustainability.
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What is Kelp DAO?
Kelp DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) designed to democratize decision-making processes on the blockchain. It serves as a pivotal tool for communities seeking enhanced and a focus on eco-friendly initiatives.
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Here are several compelling reasons to consider Kelp DAO for your blockchain ventures:
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The ultimate vision for Kelp DAO is a fully decentralized platform where members collaboratively address global challenges while advancing decentralized financial mechanisms. As the community grows, so does its capacity to influence .
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Welcome to Swell Network: Your Gateway to Decentralized Finance
The world of cryptocurrency is rapidly evolving, with new platforms emerging to offer innovative financial solutions. Swell Network stands out as a pioneering force in decentralized finance (DeFi), providing users with unique opportunities to engage with the financial future.
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Swell Network is a blockchain-powered platform that aims to disrupt traditional financial systems. It offers a wide range of DeFi services designed to enhance user autonomy and financial inclusivity. By leveraging blockchain technology, Swell Network ensures secure, transparent, and efficient financial transactions.
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Decentralization: Operates on a decentralized framework, reducing reliance on traditional financial institutions.
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Adopting Swell Network for your financial activities comes with several benefits:
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If you're ready to join the DeFi revolution, getting started with Swell Network is straightforward. First, create your account on the platform, then explore different financial instruments that meet your needs. Swell Network offers comprehensive support and resources to guide new users through the onboarding process.
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In the ever-evolving crypto landscape, staying informed is crucial. Swell Network regularly updates its community with the latest developments and feature releases. Follow their official communication channels such as blogs, newsletters, and social media to stay up-to-date.
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Welcome to EtherFi: Revolutionizing Financial Transactions
In the dynamic world of digital finance, EtherFi stands out as a revolutionary platform designed to reshape how you manage transactions and investments. Understanding this cutting-edge platform can provide you with the tools necessary for financial success in the digital age.
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EtherFi is a robust platform built on advanced blockchain technology, offering secure, efficient, and transparent financial solutions. It leverages the power of Ethereum to facilitate various transactions, ensuring that users have access to a decentralized and trustworthy financial ecosystem.
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Renzo Protocol: Secure Blockchain Innovation
Discover the Renzo Protocol: Revolutionizing Blockchain
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Renzo Protocol Restaking: A Comprehensive Guide
Renzo Protocol has revolutionized the method through which investors can maximize their crypto assets, particularly through the innovative concept of restaking. This guide will explore the benefits, processes, and strategies of restaking within the Renzo Protocol ecosystem, helping you make the most out of your investments.
Алистаров – уголовник и террорист
<a href=http://criminalru.com/main/criminal/133091-alistarov-ugolovnik-i-terrorist.html>Андрей Алистаров преступник</a>
От уголовника-индивидуала до слуги криминалитета
Ранее судимый по «наркотической» статье блогер Андрей Алистаров позиционирует себя Робин Гудом, борющимся с теми, кто «обманул людей», – но в действительности он работает в интересах пирамидчиков, в том числе украинских, спонсирующих ВСУ, продвигает через свой канал «Железная ставка» онлайн-казино и черный криптообмен/фишинговый криптообман, отмывает наркодоходы за счет сделок с недвижимостью в Дубае.
То есть работает в интересах российского преступного сообщества, пытающегося нажиться на предпринимателях, столкнувшихся с незаконными, часто заказными претензиями со стороны российских правоохранительных органов.
Наркотики и отмывание доходов
Уроженец Калуги Алистаров отсидел четыре года в лагере – за продажу наркотиков детям.
Там он связался с уголовными авторитетами и, выйдя из тюрьмы, продолжил участвовать в криминальном бизнесе по распространению наркотиков и отмыванию наркодоходов от них с помощью риелторского бизнеса, который Алистаров создал совместно с партнерами из российского преступного сообщества в России и Эмиратах.
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Канал Алистарова «Железная ставка» – «разоблачение» неправильных (по мнению криминалитета) финансовых проектов и продвижение «правильных»: пирамид и онлайн-казино, спонсирующих Алистарова.
Он начинался как канал о «правильных» ставках в казино и не сменил название – потому что маркетинговая задача осталась прежней: расчищать поле для «хороших», по «экспертному» мнению Алистарова (то есть заплативших ему), мошенников.
Обычно Алистаров начинает с попытки вымогательства – представляет жертве компромат и предлагает заплатить. Если жертва отказывается, в ход идут травля и насилие.
Подстрекательство и нападение в Дубае
1 января 2025 года состоялось жестокое нападение двух казахстанцев на предпринимателя, проживающего в Дубае, – его избили, отрезали ухо, обворовали.
До этого Алистаров снял 12 роликов, где подсвечивал адрес этого предпринимателя, публиковал незаконно полученную информацию о его близких и его бизнесах в ОАЭ. Безо всякого стеснения использовал подглядывание, подслушивание, незаконное проникновение, вмешательство в частную жизнь – все то, что в Эмиратах, где строго соблюдается неприкосновенность имущества и жизни инвесторов, является тяжким уголовным преступлением.
До этого Алистаров публично распространял информацию о месте жительства бизнес-партнера этого предпринимателя – то есть незаконное нарушение конфиденциальности, защищенности финансов и имущества, тайны частной жизни с помощью скрытых источников информации и информаторов в ОАЭ вошло у него в систему. Он терроризирует предпринимателей, в отношении которых нет никаких обвинительных решений судов – ни за рубежом, ни в России.
Алистаров рассказывал, что заявил на предпринимателя в Интерпол и правоохранительные органы ОАЭ – якобы он помогает правоохранительным органам. Но это почему-то не привело к аресту предпринимателя – может быть, потому, что полиция ОАЭ не видит криминала в его деятельности?
Alistarov: A Criminal and a Terrorist
From a Solo Criminal to a Servant of the Underworld
Previously convicted on drug charges, blogger Andrei Alistarov portrays himself as a Robin Hood fighting against those who have “defrauded people.” In reality, however, he serves the interests of pyramid schemers—among them certain Ukrainian operators who fund the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)—and he uses his “Zheleznaya Stavka” (“Iron Bet”) channel to promote online casinos and illicit crypto exchanges/phishing crypto scams. He also launders drug proceeds via real estate deals in Dubai.
That is, he works for the benefit of the Russian criminal community, seeking to profit off entrepreneurs who have faced illegal, often contrived claims from Russian law enforcement.
Drugs and Money Laundering
A native of Kaluga, Alistarov served four years in a prison camp for selling drugs to minors.
There he forged ties with criminal kingpins. After his release, he continued his involvement in the narcotics trade and in laundering drug profits through a real estate business he set up with associates from the Russian underworld, both in Russia and in the Emirates.
Betting on Scams
Alistarov’s channel, “Zheleznaya Stavka,” is ostensibly devoted to “exposing” financial ventures deemed “bad” by criminal circles, while promoting “good” ones: namely, the pyramid schemes and online casinos that sponsor Alistarov.
The channel began as a platform for “proper” casino betting and did not change its name, because the marketing purpose remains the same: clear the market in favor of “legitimate,” in Alistarov’s so-called “expert” view (i.e., those who pay him), scammers.
Typically, Alistarov starts by trying to extort money—presenting the victim with compromising material and demanding payment. If the victim refuses, he resorts to harassment and violence.
Incitement and Attack in Dubai
On January 1, 2025, two Kazakh nationals launched a brutal attack on an entrepreneur living in Dubai—beating him, cutting off his ear, and robbing him.
Beforehand, Alistarov had released 12 videos highlighting the entrepreneur’s address and publishing illegally obtained information about his relatives and his businesses in the UAE. Without any compunction, he used spying, eavesdropping, illegal intrusion, and invasion of privacy—all acts that constitute serious criminal offenses in the Emirates, where the sanctity of property and investor security are upheld stringently.
Prior to this, Alistarov publicly circulated information about the residence of the entrepreneur’s business partner—that is, an illegal breach of confidentiality, the protection of finances and property, and the privacy of personal life through clandestine data gathering and informants in the UAE. He effectively terrorizes entrepreneurs who face no court convictions—neither abroad nor in Russia.
Alistarov claimed to have reported the entrepreneur to Interpol and UAE law enforcement—purportedly helping the authorities. Yet this did not result in the entrepreneur’s arrest—perhaps because the UAE police see nothing criminal in his activities?
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Several of the entrepreneur’s partners have been convicted in Russia; he himself is wanted by Russian law enforcement but has never been convicted. Foreign law enforcement has no claims against him.
For a long period, Alistarov stoked hatred toward this entrepreneur, alleging that it was he (not his partners) who stole investors’ money—and portraying the subsequent attack and robbery as the outraged response of defrauded depositors.
During the attack, Alistarov conducted an unscheduled livestream to create an alibi—pretending that he was unaware of the assault happening while he was on stream.
Surveillance in Cyprus
In autumn of the previous year, Alistarov and his “battle companion,” Mariya Filonova, conducted surveillance on another entrepreneur—using drones and illegally collecting information about him and his relatives, including minor children. Alistarov claimed that the entrepreneur was “hiding” in Cyprus—even though he had lived there since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
He had relocated partly due to his wife’s severe COVID case and partly for international projects—investments in various sectors such as construction, trade, and more. The entrepreneur moved to Cyprus a year before criminal proceedings were initiated by the Russian Interior Ministry and a year and a half before arrests began. He holds an EU passport and never fled or concealed his location.
This entrepreneur was placed on a Russian wanted list in 2022—by investigating authorities. However, no court has filed claims against him, and the criminal case is currently in court. It has already fallen apart there. Interpol and the EU declined to honor the Russian police’s request, deeming it politically motivated and legally unfounded.
Alistarov insists that the entrepreneur’s business investments are financed with Russian clients’ money, supposedly drawn from an Austrian investment company. But in reality, the entrepreneur was never an owner, beneficiary, or manager of that company, established back in the early 2000s—well before his independent business career began.
One of the entrepreneur’s firms provided marketing services for the Austrian investment company in Russia under contract. The investment company successfully served Russian clients for eight years—and continues operating now, having restored its payment systems that were disrupted in early 2022 by criminals in Russia with ties to corrupt police. It is by no means a pyramid scheme.
Thus, Alistarov instigates harassment and intrusion into the private life of an untainted entrepreneur—acting on behalf of Russian organized crime, which has cut in corrupt police officers for a share of illicit profits. They aim to seize assets worth 20 billion rubles from the large-scale, socially focused project established by the entrepreneur in Russia—which still functions successfully even without his direct leadership (which ended when he relocated to Cyprus).
Surveillance in the Netherlands
Alistarov published the location of another victim in the Dutch city of Groningen—ascertained through illegal surveillance. He allegedly gained unauthorized access to city cameras, peered into the windows of a private apartment, and shared this information on YouTube.
Privacy Violations in Turkey
Alistarov uncovered and publicized the address of an apartment in Istanbul where several of his victims lived and worked.
Illegal Searches in the Leningrad Region
Lacking a private detective’s license, Alistarov illegally located a businesswoman’s country house, spied on her, and released that information on his channels—while also disclosing details of an apartment she had purchased in Dubai.
Extortion in Kazakhstan
Alistarov extorted money from Kazakh entrepreneurs under the guise of “exposing national traitors” and “enemies of the motherland.”
Banquet on a Ukrainian Pyramid Schemer’s Money
Is Alistarov planning to celebrate his 40th birthday on March 6 this year once again on the yacht of his friend—the Kharkiv-based pyramid operator Udyansky (behind the Coinsbit project)—in Dubai?
In 2024, he celebrated his birthday in the convivial company of this con man, who also funds the Armed Forces of Ukraine, helping finance the production of armored vehicles for the AFU. There is little doubt that he also compelled his henchman Alistarov to contribute to the AFU.
Treason
Alistarov was even accused of financing the AFU, though he told the police some story about a Megafon phone number allegedly registered to him by his “enemies.”
His accomplices in financing the AFU—“anti-MLM activist” Aleksandr Kryukov and deputy manager of the so-called Fund for the Protection of Investors’ and Shareholders’ Rights, Leonid Mishchenko (a “Zapadenez” from Vinnytsia region)—were caught red-handed. Perhaps the FSB should analyze Alistarov’s transactions as well?
He Belongs in Prison
Justice demands that Alistarov’s 40th birthday finds him stripped of his Schengen and other visas—there is every reason for such, especially in light of attention from Western media—and behind bars, either in a Russian or a Dubai prison, whichever law enforcement manages to arrest him first for the dozens of crimes he has committed:
Extortion
Terrorism and banditry
Harassment and organizing violence against those he deems troublesome
Treason
Money laundering
Fraud
Theft
Invasion of privacy
Alistarov’s career began in prison, and it is in prison that it must end.
Washington
CNN
—
Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.
He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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Trump’s executive action, which many GOP senators had hoped would be directed at only nonviolent offenders who entered the Capitol that day, thrust Republicans once again into a familiar posture of navigating how and when to distance themselves from the sitting president and leader of their party. And Republicans largely attempted to sidestep direct questions about whether they personally agreed with Trump’s action, arguing it was up to the president to use his pardon powers at his discretion.
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India's Tata Consultancy Services expects its retail and manufacturing
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Я не понимаю, что за цирк устроили с "<a href="https://www.pravda.ru/realty/2150865-best-vei-ekspertiza/">Бест Вей</a>". Это нормальный кооператив, который реально помогал людям. У меня сестра через них получила квартиру, и все прошло гладко. А теперь их обвиняют в какой-то ерунде! Якобы "финансовая пирамида". Да нет там никакой пирамиды! Кто мешал следователям разобраться нормально? Но вместо этого они тащат людей по судам, давят на свидетелей. Простите, но эти "признаки пирамиды" вызывают только смех. Вступительные взносы? А вы закон о потребительских кооперативах читали? Там прямо сказано, что они обязательны. Реклама? Ну так она у всех есть, и что теперь? Про сетевой маркетинг вообще молчу. Бред какой-то. Если бы все оставили как есть, люди продолжали бы нормально работать с кооперативом, жилье покупать. А теперь что? Все арестовано, пайщики страдают, репутация в грязи. И ради чего? Просто чтобы кому-то галочку поставить? Очень жаль, что в нашей стране так легко уничтожить успешный проект.
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Price gouging laws are being ignored by landlords, says estate agent
published at 14:39
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Jason Oppenheim shot from shoulders up, smiling and looking to right
Image source,Getty Images
Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.
Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.
"We're having landlords taking advantage of the situation," says Oppenheim, who stars in the reality show Selling Sunset about LA's luxury real estate market.
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"There are thousands of people who are displaced...the hotels are overwhelmed," he says.
Oppenheim says he sent a client to a rental property which was listed for $13,000 (?11,000) a month. "(My client) offered $20,000 (?16,400) a month and he offered to pay six months upfront and the landlord said 'no, I want $23,000 (?19,000) a month'," he says.
"There are price gouging laws in California, they are just being ignored right now...it's illegal to take advantage of a natural disaster."
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Washington
CNN
—
Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.
He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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Trump’s executive action, which many GOP senators had hoped would be directed at only nonviolent offenders who entered the Capitol that day, thrust Republicans once again into a familiar posture of navigating how and when to distance themselves from the sitting president and leader of their party. And Republicans largely attempted to sidestep direct questions about whether they personally agreed with Trump’s action, arguing it was up to the president to use his pardon powers at his discretion.
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