
5月以来,作为全球资产配置的风向标之一,美元指数(90.0214, 0.1120, 0.12%)持续走软。在此期间,全球资金通过各种渠道加仓中国资产。
随着中国经济基本面持续向好,外资机构看好中国市场的趋势更加明显。展望下半年,中国资产能否跑赢全球?哪些领域的机会最为突出?
美元走弱打乱资产配置节奏
美元指数近两个月以来持续走弱,并于近日跌破90大关。
弱势美元带来了一系列连锁反应。首先,市场进一步预期,美联储可能将较预期更早地收紧货币政策,虽然不会很快加息,但提前结束量化宽松政策可能提上日程。其次,美元疲软或将加剧美国国内本已高涨的物价水平,这将不利于经济复苏。
对于美国股市而言,上述两大因素不利于市场流动性和经济、行业基本面,美股主要股指近期均自高位回调,并出现一定波动。摩根士丹利指出,随着成本压力上升、企业税上调,美股未来半年或回调10%-15%。
此外,部分大宗商品价格在前期大幅上涨后,近期已出现回调和资金撤离迹象。瑞银大宗商品研究团队预计,未来几个月大宗商品价格将有所回落。
资金流向监测机构EPFR最新报告显示,近期资金配置部分前期热门的大宗商品以及美股等资产的热情有所降温,投资者观望情绪逐渐加重。
中国资产获追捧
在美股及大宗商品观望情绪升温的背景下,新兴市场资产能否“填补空缺”?从最新情况看,新兴市场资产内部分化较明显。国际资金较看好中国资产,但规避部分疫情和经济压力较大的新兴市场资产。
国际金融协会(IIF)最新发布的月度全球资金流向报告显示,2021年5月,流入新兴市场国家的资金总额约为138亿美元,较此前一个月的455亿美元大幅缩减。在5月份,全球新兴经济体股票市场资金净流入额为40亿美元。其中,净流入中国股市的金额为113亿美元。换言之,除中国外的新兴经济体股票市场出现73亿美元的资金净流出。
此外,近期北向资金净流入的规模也显著放大。Choice数据显示,上周北向资金累计净流入468.14亿元,创周度净流入历史新高。其中,沪股通资金净流入300.90亿元,深股通资金净流入167.24亿元。5月25日,北向资金净流入217.23亿元,创北向资金单日净流入历史新高。从加仓的股票来看,上周北向资金加仓贵州茅台的金额最大,达到44.19亿元,共加仓203.02万股。
机构乐观情绪升温
值得关注的是,进入6月以来,部分全球顶级机构专家对于中国经济和中国资产前景的乐观情绪持续升温,他们的投资方向将成为市场关注的焦点。
高盛财富管理投资策略组联席主管王胜祖表示,相对于现金和债券,该机构更看好中国股票。顺周期价值股将会迎头赶上成长股。
摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示,2021年中国经济增速有望达到9%。摩根士丹利中国首席市场策略师王滢表示,展望下半年,中国股票市场仍将提供较多赚取超额收益的机会。行业配置上,该机构短中期比较青睐原材料板块、银行板块。王滢还表示,摩根士丹利对中国消费和服务稳步恢复到疫情前的水平持有充分信心。在板块配置方面,建议增配的板块包括消费服务以及耐用消费品板块等。
安本标准投资管理董事及中国股票投资负责人姚鸿耀指出,投资者有充分理由对A股市场的前景感到乐观。该机构的经济师预测,2021年中国经济增长率约为9.5%。
姚鸿耀强调,中国经济复苏预计会利好国内消费市场的持续结构性增长,经常性消费品、非经常性消费品和健康护理板块的公司有望受惠。整体而言,中国出口正在回升,国内企业盈利前景良好,盈利质量胜过其他市场。展望未来,中国消费的结构性动力仍然稳固。调味料生产商、汽车零件制造商、新能源企业以及电池供货商等均存在机遇。投资者应留意有庞大市场份额且具备防守型竞争优势的行业翘楚。

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