汇市分析|美国6月CPI数据创近13年以来新高

2021年07月14日 10759点热度 29人点赞 2,360条评论
基本面
  
美指
美国6月CPI数据创近13年以来新高
美国6月未季调CPI年率录得5.4%,续创2008年8月以来新高;6月季调后CPI月率录得0.9%,创2008年6月以来新高;6月未季调核心CPI年率录得4.5%,高于预期并创1991年来的最高水平。
数据公布后,美国联邦基金利率期货显示,美联储在2022年12月加息的可能性为90%,在2023年1月加息的可能性为100%。 
  
美联储布拉德:是时候撤回刺激措施了
圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示,现在是撤回刺激措施的时候了,并支持2022年加息。他预计经济可能增长7%,核心通胀率为3%。旧金山联储主席戴利也认为,现在开始谈论缩减购债是合适的,但谈论加息为时尚早。
  
黄金
欧洲央行管委森特诺称欧元区通胀上升是暂时的
欧洲央行管委森特诺认为,欧元区通胀的上升“显然是暂时的”,短期的不确定性仍然存在,但复苏并不处于危险之中。欧洲央行必须对过去从未容忍过的通胀偏离保持耐心。
   
新西兰议会委员会计划对加密货币进行调查
新西兰财政和支出特别委员会主席Duncan Webb在声明中表示,委员会已经对加密货币的当前和未来的性质、影响和风险展开调查。此外,英国警方在洗钱调查中,扣押了价值1.8亿英镑的加密货币。
   
原油
IEA月报:除非欧佩克+增产,否则油市将“显著收紧”
国际能源署(IEA)警告称,除非欧佩克+联盟解决僵局并同意增加产量,否则全球石油市场将“显著收紧”。报告显示,即使欧佩克+达成协议,正在考虑的40万桶/日的增产将远远不能满足消费者的需求。
  
技术面
  
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元指数周二午后开始上扬,美盘前短线拉升,随即小幅回调后再度上行,最终收报92.78,收涨0.6%
  
观点整理:
盘面继续维持震荡区间的可能性较大;原因在于,目前市场并没有出现需求去改变当前局势,也就没有更多动能去改变市场的运行轨迹;随着昨日盘面走出倒转锤头,这种初级底部信号的出现,能在一定程度上起到支撑作用
  
黄金
市场行情整理: 
周二现货黄金小幅走高,美国CPI数据公布后,金价上下扫荡,一度跌回1800关口下方,美盘开盘后短线拉升,维持日内涨势,最终收涨0.09%,报1807.40美元/盎司
   
观点整理:
 金价周二再收十字星,短线横盘的趋势愈加明显,这一趋势或将继续维持。从技术面来看,考虑到目前处于上涨趋势之中,涨势暂歇可能意味着多头后续动能不足。与此同时,美元仍处于升势,也给黄金多头更大的压力。建议投资者暂时观望,
   
原油
市场行情整理: 
国际油价方面,WTI原油期货震荡上行,美盘后一度站上75.4美元/桶,截至收盘,WTI原油收涨1.37%,报75.18美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.57%,报76.34美元/桶。
   
观点整理:
美原油走势震荡走强,基本面利好的格局并没有遭到破坏,未来有进一步上涨的空间,不过市场对OPEC+谈判破裂、伊核谈判的不确定性以及疫情的反弹有所担忧,这限制了油价的涨势。建议保守者可以暂时观望,激进者关注低位做多的机会。

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