IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|美元指数或将迎来大幅调整,油价或准备向上突破

2024年11月06日 19790点热度 3324人点赞 63条评论

基本面​

美指

美国大选实时进展:最新结果激励”特朗普交易”,美元暴涨创近四个月新高

美元指数周三(11月6日)全线劲升,一度创7月10日以来新高至105.02,涨幅约1.55%,有望录得2022年9月以来最大单日涨幅,随着美国总统大选的初步结果逐步揭晓,投资者重返 “特朗普交易”。

黄金

市场关注美国大选,无论结果如何黄金都可能走高

黄金在美国大选后的短期内可能面临压力,但黄金与“特朗普交易”关系不大,结构性的黄金牛市仍然稳固,建议投资者在黄金价格下跌时买入,预计金价将在未来6个月内达到每盎司3000美元。

Marex分析师Edward Meir说:“无论谁入主白宫,黄金都应该走高,因为两位候选人似乎都不反对不仅维持开支,而且还要增加开支。”

原油

美元指数或将迎来大幅调整,油价或准备向上突破

知名机构的分析师Yeap Jun Rong表示,当前交易者选择谨慎持仓以应对多重不确定因素。特别是美国总统大选带来的市场变数较大,若选举结果出现延迟或争议,将为原油市场带来短期风险。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

随着交易员等待美国大选结果出炉,美元指数延续回调,失守104关口,最终收跌0.467%,报103.41。美债收益率冲高回落,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.281%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.181%。

观点整理:

目前看日线关键位置于104区域,同时四小时支撑于103.80位置,在今日早盘触及至我们近两日强调布局空的区域,价格只要不破近期高点则维持空对待。

黄金

市场行情整理:

由于特朗普和哈里斯在美国总统大选中势均力敌,出现有争议结果的可能性很高,现货黄金在避险需求的支撑下小幅上行,一度逼近2750美元关口,最终收涨0.27%,报2743.99美元/盎司。现货白银最终收涨0.62%,报32.66美元/盎司。

观点整理:

美国大选即将尘埃落地,市场避险情绪对于黄金的支撑作用降低,买预期卖事实一旦成立,则此前黄金多头溢价存在修正的需求,日线级别指标继续调整。

原油

市场行情整理:

国际原油连续第二日走高,因美国墨西哥湾飓风可能削减石油产量,且美元疲软。WTI原油盘中最高触及72.34美元/桶,随后有所回落,最终收涨0.39%,报71.72美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨0.16%,报75.35美元/桶。

观点整理:

欧佩克+将12月份的产量增加推迟了一个月,旨在应对需求疲软和非欧佩克国家供应增长。在利比亚恢复生产的刺激下,欧佩克的产量有所增加,尽管伊拉克遵守了欧佩克+的限制,但这一延迟缓解了部分增长。推迟生产表明,在需求前景疲软的情况下,欧佩克+承诺稳定价格,为交易员评估2024年的供应趋势提供了支持。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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