IEXS盈十证券汇市分析| 金价创逾五个月最大单周跌幅,多数分析师看空后市,散户依然看涨

2024年11月11日 11058点热度 9241人点赞 99条评论

基本面​

美指

美元高位持坚,市场准备迎接美国通胀数据和美联储官员讲话

美元指数周一亚市走势谨慎,因市场准备迎接本周美国通胀数据和美联储官员讲话。本周多位美联储官员将发表讲话,包括主席鲍威尔在周四的谈话,将对利率前景提供大量指引,由于美国消费者物价指数将于周三公布,因此数据面也将具有影响力,若核心CPI高于预期的 0.3%,将进一步降低 12 月放松政策的可能性。

尽管特朗普政策实际上将如何实施还有待观察,但长期来看,这一切都对美元有利。

黄金

金价创逾五个月最大单周跌幅,多数分析师看空后市,散户依然看涨

现货黄金窄幅震荡,周线下跌1.85%,创下五个多月来最大单周跌幅,受美元走强打压,市场消化特朗普胜选的影响及其可能对美国利率预期产生的影响。Allegiance Gold首席运营官Alex Ebkarian表示:“过去一个月里,大选的不确定性风险以及是否能正常完成权力交接一直是市场的关注焦点。从未来政策的潜在影响来看,很多风险资产开始受益,因此资金从金属流出,进入这些替代资产。”

原油

箱体突破再次失败,重回空头怀抱?

美原油亚盘时段延续上周五跌势,因供给端上飓风的影响减弱,支撑油价上涨的情绪消退,同时美元指数强势多头之下施压美原油,叠加全球需求预期尚未出现回暖迹象,多重共振之下,油价维持箱体震荡。目前接近70美元整数关附近,若再次跌破,则存在再探前低的可能性。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

上周五,“特朗普交易”余威仍存,美元指数重回涨势,盘中再次上探105关口,最终收涨0.587%,报104.95。美债收益率涨跌不一,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.306%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.26%。

观点整理:

本周暂时关注147.40区域周线支撑,日线级别关注104.30区域支撑,日线支撑是波段走势的关键分水岭,四小暂时关注105.30-40区间阻力,待价格测试四小时阻力先看承压,后续关注日线支撑得失情况。

黄金

市场行情整理:

受到美元走强的施压,以及市场对美联储的降息预期进一步消退,现货黄金走低,最低触及2680.26美元/盎司,最终收跌0.84%,报2683.77美元/盎司,上周创下五个多月来最大单周跌幅。现货白银最终收跌2.34%,报31.29美元/盎司。

观点整理:

美联储利率决议落地,降息符合预期,美元指数回踩支撑,黄金超跌修正,中期均线拐头向下,维持区间震荡。

原油

市场行情整理:

随着交易员对美国墨西哥湾飓风导致长期供应中断的担忧有所减轻,国际原油回落。WTI原油一度跌破70关口,尾盘有所反弹,最终收跌2.32%,报70.23美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌2.08%,报73.84美元/桶。

观点整理:

上周原油市场虽经历波动,但总体趋势保持微幅上涨,得益于对供应面趋紧的预期支撑。未来需重点关注国际政策的进一步发展及对供给端的影响。同时,全球需求变化也将是影响油价走势的关键因素之一。在目前的背景下,油价有望在近期延续震荡格局。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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