基本面
美指
摩根大通财报暗藏玄机：美国经济”逆风翻盘”背后，华尔街狂欢与隐忧并存！
2025年第二季度，当全球贸易战的阴云笼罩市场时，美国三大银行巨头却交出了一份令人意外的成绩单。摩根大通、花旗和富国银行用数据证明：美国经济的韧性远超预期，华尔街正迎来新一轮狂欢。尽管承认经济向好，摩根大通掌门人仍不忘敲响警钟：”信贷市场过热、地缘政治风险、通胀失控…这些隐患从未真正消失。”分析师注意到，该行悄悄增加了贷款损失准备金，似在未雨绸缪。
当下的美国经济宛如一场精妙的平衡术：一边是税收改革与消费活力撑起的繁荣图景，另一边是贸易战与通胀构成的危险钢丝。正如戴蒙所言：”在享受阳光的同时，别忘了带伞。”这场华尔街的盛夏狂欢，或许正站在季节更替的临界点上。
黄金
紧随美国宣布的最新关税，三大投行都建议买入黄金济
根据银行业巨头摩根士丹利（大摩）、高盛和瑞银的最新报告，在特朗普政府最近宣布对欧盟和其他主要贸易伙伴征收关税之后，黄金是投资者的最佳投资对象之一。
大摩的分析师在其最新的金属市场报告中写道，美元进一步走软应该会为大宗商品提供有利条件，而美国通胀率的任何上升也可能吸引资金流入贵金属，亚洲大国的任何刺激政策都将成为该行业意想不到的利好因素。然而，随着金属囤积的影响逐渐消退，美国的关税将对这些预测构成增长风险。
原油
美原油谨慎交投于66美元下方，全球贸易不确定性持续发酵
周三亚洲尾盘，美原油9月期货谨慎交投于65.70美元附近。由于全球贸易紧张局势持续令能源需求前景蒙阴，油价持续在周线低点附近震荡。
美国总统特朗普因22国未能在90天关税休战期内达成协议而加征关税。与此同时，若欧盟未能在8月1日新期限前与美国达成协议，也已准备好对等反制措施。欧盟若对美国进口商品实施报复性措施恐加剧贸易紧张——特朗普早已警告，任何经济体采取反制都将招致额外关税。
值得注意的是，随着进口商开始将关税成本转嫁给消费者，美国通胀压力加速上升。这令市场质疑美联储是否仍会在9月政策会议上降息，此种情景对油价构成利空。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周二，在温和的通胀报告引发美联储可能暂时维持利率不变的猜测后，美元指数持续拉升，最终收涨0.54%，报98.596。美债收益率攀升，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.488%，2年期美债收益率收报3.959%，30年期国债收益率自6月以来首次升至5%。
观点整理:
回顾周二市场表现，在早盘期间价格向下修正，之后如期测试到四小时支撑后止步，从时间点看刚好在欧盘时间，之后价格再度向上飙升，并且再创周内高点位置，最终当天大阳收尾，后续整体继续关注多头延续。
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金在CPI数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破3320美元关口，最终收跌0.56%，收报3324.96美元/盎司，为连续第二个交易日走低；现货白银回落至38美元关口下方，最终收跌1.15%，报37.7美元/盎司。
观点整理:
从技术面看，金价在3375美元附近面临强劲阻力，若能有效突破这一水平，可能打开进一步上涨空间；下方则有55日均线3322至21日均线3338区域的支撑，一旦失守该区域支撑，则可能引发更深度的回调。此外，近金价在3300关口附近还存在一定的支撑。短期来看，黄金很可能维持区间震荡格局，等待更明确的基本面信号指引方向。
原油
市场行情整理:
由于特朗普对俄罗斯的制裁威胁伴随50天的缓冲期，不及此前油市对供应立即中断的担忧，国际油价延续跌势。WTI原油震荡走低，最终收跌0.35%，报65.63美元/桶；布伦特原油收跌0.39%，报68.26美元/桶。
观点整理:
全球贸易情绪反复，叠加地缘局势不确定性，使得油价冲高回落，目前对于供给端的担忧情绪有所缓和，主要还是需求预期下行，施压油价，继续关注库存数据的变化，等待方向选择，技术层面上维持箱体运行，等待支撑确认
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