油价暴跌为何会导致股市崩盘?

2020年03月10日 13750点热度 0人点赞 3,118条评论
  • 虽说股市承压还跟央行宽松大潮、疫情蔓延息息相关,但毫无疑问,油市是当前所有市场动荡的“暴风眼”,是一切问题的核心。

 

周一,注定是载入史册的一天。沙特周末发动石油价格战掀起惊涛骇浪:

 

亚盘开盘后美、布两油双双暴跌逾30%,现货金银惊现巨幅震荡。

股市同步“受灾”,欧股全线低开,德国DAX指数、英国富时100指数和欧洲斯托克50指数跌超8%,多国股指进入技术性熊市。

美股开盘后大幅崩跌,标普500指数一度跌7%,触发第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟;道指早盘曾跌超2000点,后收复部分失地。

虽说股市承压还跟央行宽松大潮、疫情蔓延息息相关,但毫无疑问,油市是当前所有市场动荡的“暴风眼”,是一切问题的核心。那么沙特掀起价格战以及随之而来的油价崩盘,是如何影响全球各大市场的呢?

金融业遭受冲击 油企破产潮或拖垮华尔街一众巨头

 

尽管能源和大宗商品公司股指只占股市的一小部分(略高于5%),但油价在衡量通货膨胀时起着重要作用,而通货膨胀是近来美国经济中一个重要的指标。而更令人担忧的是,这一切动荡的起因:需求疲软,这可能是迄今为止最明显的衰退迹象。

从美股昨晚的暴跌可以看出,虽然美国并非此次价格战的主角,但绝对难以置身事外。随着能源垃圾债券市场走到崩溃边缘,华尔街早已对能源行业失去信心。油价崩溃带来前所未有的重大冲击,存在大规模违约现象的页岩油开发公司已无法履行债务和利息支付义务,投资者必须对资金链进行转移,因此诱发股市又一波资金逃亡潮。

如果油价长期徘徊在30美元以下,不仅许多能源企业面临破产,就连为它们提供贷款资金的银行也要承担一定风险。摩根士丹利在周一发布的一份报告里列出了第四季度贷款中能源敞口最大的几家美国银行的名单,这份报告可以一定程度上反映油价暴跌对银行盈利能力的影响。

对于许多美国页岩油生产商而言,经过昨日的暴跌之后,油价如今更接近甚至低于盈亏平衡点,例如Regions Financial就需要为每桶39.20美元的油价承保。而对大型银行来说,油价暴跌不仅意味它们要增加数十亿美元的能源风险敞口,更意味着能源投资利润面临清零。大摩对此表示:

我们认为,根据CECL(美联储预期信贷损失政策)的新计算公式,银行将需要在第一季度和第二季度增加石油和天然气敞口的准备金,以满足美联储压力测试的要求。我们预计,银行将把针对能源投资组合的贷款损失准备金提高到16年第一季度的水平,当时油价约为30美元。这将降低许多银行在今年头两个季度的EPS表现。

当然了,大摩的预测相当谨慎,其报告只在贷款风险敞口的背景下对这些银行的准备金额进行了框定,但油价暴跌带来的实际性伤害可能更大。

通过对大中型银行的能源敞口进行评估,大摩清楚地向外界展示了油价暴跌对金融行业造成的严重冲击。换句话说,如果石油行业出现一波违约潮,美国各大银行将蒙受巨大损失,这可能进一步拖累大盘走势。

各大经济部门被无故牵连 史上最大股市泡沫濒临破裂

 

除了金融业之外,能源行业与其它经济领域还有十分复杂且密切的联系。同样以经济大国美国为例,北欧联合银行分析师马丁•恩伦德(Martin Enlund)表示,对潜在溢出效应进行量化分析可以看到,美国资本支出已陷入停滞,能源行业若遭受重创将对制造业、航空运输业等带来巨大冲击。

想知道制造业会否因油价暴跌而崩溃,一个关键先行指标是新增钻机数。如果钻机数量大幅下降,意味着制造业和石油业整体进入萧条。恩伦德指出:

“2015-2016年的制造业衰退表明,油价暴跌会对美国资本支出产生负面影响。”

油价大幅下跌也对地位超然的美国信贷市场构成了不小风险。近年来,美国信贷市场成为股市的主要支柱(提供数万亿美元的回购资金)。但恩隆德指出,如果高收益行业(即能源密集型行业)出现不可预见的巨大损失,信贷周期可能会遭到破坏。如果信贷周期破裂,回购、并购活动将偃旗息鼓,股市估值泡沫面临破裂。

市场观点汇总:关于股市和经济崩盘的N种猜想

 

关于油价暴跌对股市的后续影响,不少市场观察人士发表了自己的看法。

本西格集团(Bensignor Group)创始人、前摩根士丹利策略师本西格(Rick Bensignor)在一份报告中写道:

“几周前,我们暗示可能会看到即将到来的通缩压力。随着股市和油价的暴跌,这个猜想和现实越来越接近了。”

三菱日联首席金融经济学家鲁普基(Chris Rupkey)也认为,油价因价格战暴跌,空气中首次出现了一丝通缩的气息:

 

“任何市场都有赢家和输家,但是目前看来,油价下跌会让工人的口袋里有更多的钱,并会刺激消费者支出和经济,但这并不能减轻股市投资者受到的冲击。”

米勒塔巴克公司(Miller Tabak & Co.)股票策略师马特•马利(Matt Maley)则表示,考虑到能源公司在高收益市场的巨大风险敞口,油价下跌超过30%对高收益市场来说是非常沉重的打击:

“高收益市场受到沉重打击,对股市来说从来都不是好事。当前股市已经受到冠状病毒的影响,油价暴跌对其造成非常严重的双重打击,这可能是股市历史发生的最糟糕的事情。”

JonesTrading首席市场策略师奥洛克(Michael O ‘Rourke)在一份报告中写道,对脆弱的股市构成威胁的,不仅仅是油价,而是所有负面事件的集体爆发。此外,奥洛克认为上周五最后一个小时的突然反弹,可能预示着投资者在猜测股市将出现V形反弹,进而入场抄底。

 

“我们知道,在过去5年里,这是一种非常成功的策略(指抄底),但这种反弹失败的次数越多,买家的处境就越艰难。在上周这样的情况下,抄底对所有股票投资者来说都是危险的。”

Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官金•福雷斯特(Kim Forrest)则指出,油价暴跌将拉低债券收益率,增加经济衰退的可能。

“美国的石油工业如果发生崩溃,不太可能将我们马上推入衰退。但债市就不一样了,美债收益率跌至创纪录低点的影响市场绝对难以承受。”

展望后市,股市摆脱危机的契机在哪里呢?福克斯商业记者Susan Li称,这次油价暴跌危机的根源在于沙特和俄罗斯对减产计划的分歧,如果两大产油国改变主意重新坐回谈判桌上,市场或出现新的转机。福克斯表示,昨天的油价暴跌可能会给沙俄两国带来警示:因为双方都不能承受油价的长期动荡。

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    2025年1月21日
  • GreggJoxia

    A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
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    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

    2025年1月21日
  • JoshuaOpive

    Phantom Wallet
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    2025年1月21日
  • Oscarhaugs

    Base Bridge: Your Gateway to Seamless Asset Transfer
    As the digital landscape expands, transferring assets across different blockchain networks has become increasingly important. Base Bridge offers a robust solution for managing digital assets efficiently and securely.
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    2025年1月21日
  • Williamjoype

    Aerodrome Finance: Unlocking Potential for Growth
    The world of aerodrome finance is pivotal for ensuring the efficient operation, enhancement, and expansion of aerodrome facilities globally. With the increasing demand for air travel, understanding aerodrome financial processes is more important than ever.
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    Aerodrome finance plays a critical role in the lifespan of airport projects, providing necessary funding from initial development to ongoing management. Here are key reasons why it matters:

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    Various strategies can be employed to optimize aerodrome finance, ensuring both immediate and long-term benefits. Here are a few notable approaches:

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    These partnerships combine public sector oversight and private sector efficiency, leading to shared risks and rewards. They facilitate diverse financial resources and innovative solutions for airport projects.

    Revenue Diversification
    Exploring non-aeronautical revenue streams, such as retail concessions and property leases, can significantly bolster an airport's financial resilience. Such diversification allows for a steady income flow independent of ticket sales.

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    Adopting sustainable financial practices, including green bonds and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria, aligns with modern ecological standards and attracts environmentally conscious investors.

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    While aerodrome finance offers numerous benefits, it also poses certain challenges. High capital costs, regulatory hurdles, and fluctuating passenger demands can impact financial stability. However, these challenges also present opportunities for innovation and improvement.

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    2025年1月21日
  • Michaelclors

    Maximizing Profits with 1inch Exchange
    In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, every second counts. 1inch Exchange offers a powerful solution for traders looking to optimize their crypto transactions. By aggregating the best deals across various decentralized exchanges (DEXs), 1inch ensures users get the most value for their trades.
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    2025年1月21日
  • PeterMed

    Understanding the Aave Protocol
    The Aave Protocol is revolutionizing the decentralized finance (DeFi) space with its unique approach to crypto lending and borrowing. Whether you're a seasoned investor or new to the world of cryptocurrencies, Aave offers a robust platform for managing your digital assets.
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    There are several reasons why Aave stands out in the world of DeFi:

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    2025年1月21日
  • Andrewblisp

    Bonding on a stalled train
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    In 1990, Derek Barclay was 21 and studying to become a construction engineer. He’d saved up money from an unglamorous summer job building a prison to buy an Interrail pass.

    “Then, I dumped my bag at my mum’s house and said, ‘I’m off to Europe.’ She was horrified,” Derek tells CNN Travel today.

    “The idea was to go from Casablanca to Istanbul. But I never went to either. Along the way I met Nina and I got distracted …”

    While Nina and Derek formally met for the first time on the stalled train in Belgrade, Derek had first spotted Nina on a busy station platform, some hours earlier, in Budapest.

    When he spotted her sitting on a bench, smiling and laughing with Loa, Derek was struck by Nina right away. For a moment, he imagined getting to know her, what she might be like. Where she might be from, where she might be going.

    But then Derek had ended up on a different train. He’d met and got chatting to Steve the Englishman and Paul the Irishman. The trio had shared a couple of beers, fallen asleep, and woken, with a start, in Belgrade, to a suddenly-empty carriage. That’s when they panicked.

    “We woke up, and just ran down the railway line — because we’re just about to miss this train to Athens — we jumped on the train as it was pulling away, and then it stopped,” Derek tells CNN Travel today. “Apparently that’s what they had to do to get the strike official.”

    When Derek, Steve and Paul opened the door to Nina’s carriage, Derek didn’t immediately take Nina in, focusing instead on the near-empty compartment.

    “Two of them in there, this carriage for eight, they’d spread stuff everywhere. It was obvious it was a ruse to try and get people not to go in. And we thought, ‘We’re not having any of that,’” says Derek, laughing. “So we squeezed in, and that was that.”

    It was only when he ended up sitting opposite Nina that Derek realized she was the woman he’d noticed on the Budapest train platform.

    Then they got chatting, and didn’t stop. They talked about a shared love of nature. About Derek being a member of Greenpeace. About Sweden and Scotland.

    2025年1月21日
  • Ремонт iPhone 12 Pro Max Москва

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    2025年1月21日