
- 虽说股市承压还跟央行宽松大潮、疫情蔓延息息相关,但毫无疑问,油市是当前所有市场动荡的“暴风眼”,是一切问题的核心。
周一,注定是载入史册的一天。沙特周末发动石油价格战掀起惊涛骇浪:
亚盘开盘后美、布两油双双暴跌逾30%,现货金银惊现巨幅震荡。
股市同步“受灾”,欧股全线低开,德国DAX指数、英国富时100指数和欧洲斯托克50指数跌超8%,多国股指进入技术性熊市。
美股开盘后大幅崩跌,标普500指数一度跌7%,触发第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟;道指早盘曾跌超2000点,后收复部分失地。
虽说股市承压还跟央行宽松大潮、疫情蔓延息息相关,但毫无疑问,油市是当前所有市场动荡的“暴风眼”,是一切问题的核心。那么沙特掀起价格战以及随之而来的油价崩盘,是如何影响全球各大市场的呢?
金融业遭受冲击 油企破产潮或拖垮华尔街一众巨头
尽管能源和大宗商品公司股指只占股市的一小部分(略高于5%),但油价在衡量通货膨胀时起着重要作用,而通货膨胀是近来美国经济中一个重要的指标。而更令人担忧的是,这一切动荡的起因:需求疲软,这可能是迄今为止最明显的衰退迹象。
从美股昨晚的暴跌可以看出,虽然美国并非此次价格战的主角,但绝对难以置身事外。随着能源垃圾债券市场走到崩溃边缘,华尔街早已对能源行业失去信心。油价崩溃带来前所未有的重大冲击,存在大规模违约现象的页岩油开发公司已无法履行债务和利息支付义务,投资者必须对资金链进行转移,因此诱发股市又一波资金逃亡潮。
如果油价长期徘徊在30美元以下,不仅许多能源企业面临破产,就连为它们提供贷款资金的银行也要承担一定风险。摩根士丹利在周一发布的一份报告里列出了第四季度贷款中能源敞口最大的几家美国银行的名单,这份报告可以一定程度上反映油价暴跌对银行盈利能力的影响。
对于许多美国页岩油生产商而言,经过昨日的暴跌之后,油价如今更接近甚至低于盈亏平衡点,例如Regions Financial就需要为每桶39.20美元的油价承保。而对大型银行来说,油价暴跌不仅意味它们要增加数十亿美元的能源风险敞口,更意味着能源投资利润面临清零。大摩对此表示:
我们认为,根据CECL(美联储预期信贷损失政策)的新计算公式,银行将需要在第一季度和第二季度增加石油和天然气敞口的准备金,以满足美联储压力测试的要求。我们预计,银行将把针对能源投资组合的贷款损失准备金提高到16年第一季度的水平,当时油价约为30美元。这将降低许多银行在今年头两个季度的EPS表现。
当然了,大摩的预测相当谨慎,其报告只在贷款风险敞口的背景下对这些银行的准备金额进行了框定,但油价暴跌带来的实际性伤害可能更大。
通过对大中型银行的能源敞口进行评估,大摩清楚地向外界展示了油价暴跌对金融行业造成的严重冲击。换句话说,如果石油行业出现一波违约潮,美国各大银行将蒙受巨大损失,这可能进一步拖累大盘走势。
各大经济部门被无故牵连 史上最大股市泡沫濒临破裂
除了金融业之外,能源行业与其它经济领域还有十分复杂且密切的联系。同样以经济大国美国为例,北欧联合银行分析师马丁•恩伦德(Martin Enlund)表示,对潜在溢出效应进行量化分析可以看到,美国资本支出已陷入停滞,能源行业若遭受重创将对制造业、航空运输业等带来巨大冲击。
想知道制造业会否因油价暴跌而崩溃,一个关键先行指标是新增钻机数。如果钻机数量大幅下降,意味着制造业和石油业整体进入萧条。恩伦德指出:
“2015-2016年的制造业衰退表明,油价暴跌会对美国资本支出产生负面影响。”
油价大幅下跌也对地位超然的美国信贷市场构成了不小风险。近年来,美国信贷市场成为股市的主要支柱(提供数万亿美元的回购资金)。但恩隆德指出,如果高收益行业(即能源密集型行业)出现不可预见的巨大损失,信贷周期可能会遭到破坏。如果信贷周期破裂,回购、并购活动将偃旗息鼓,股市估值泡沫面临破裂。
市场观点汇总:关于股市和经济崩盘的N种猜想
关于油价暴跌对股市的后续影响,不少市场观察人士发表了自己的看法。
本西格集团(Bensignor Group)创始人、前摩根士丹利策略师本西格(Rick Bensignor)在一份报告中写道:
“几周前,我们暗示可能会看到即将到来的通缩压力。随着股市和油价的暴跌,这个猜想和现实越来越接近了。”
三菱日联首席金融经济学家鲁普基(Chris Rupkey)也认为,油价因价格战暴跌,空气中首次出现了一丝通缩的气息:
“任何市场都有赢家和输家,但是目前看来,油价下跌会让工人的口袋里有更多的钱,并会刺激消费者支出和经济,但这并不能减轻股市投资者受到的冲击。”
米勒塔巴克公司(Miller Tabak & Co.)股票策略师马特•马利(Matt Maley)则表示,考虑到能源公司在高收益市场的巨大风险敞口,油价下跌超过30%对高收益市场来说是非常沉重的打击:
“高收益市场受到沉重打击,对股市来说从来都不是好事。当前股市已经受到冠状病毒的影响,油价暴跌对其造成非常严重的双重打击,这可能是股市历史发生的最糟糕的事情。”
JonesTrading首席市场策略师奥洛克(Michael O ‘Rourke)在一份报告中写道,对脆弱的股市构成威胁的,不仅仅是油价,而是所有负面事件的集体爆发。此外,奥洛克认为上周五最后一个小时的突然反弹,可能预示着投资者在猜测股市将出现V形反弹,进而入场抄底。
“我们知道,在过去5年里,这是一种非常成功的策略(指抄底),但这种反弹失败的次数越多,买家的处境就越艰难。在上周这样的情况下,抄底对所有股票投资者来说都是危险的。”
Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官金•福雷斯特(Kim Forrest)则指出,油价暴跌将拉低债券收益率,增加经济衰退的可能。
“美国的石油工业如果发生崩溃,不太可能将我们马上推入衰退。但债市就不一样了,美债收益率跌至创纪录低点的影响市场绝对难以承受。”
展望后市,股市摆脱危机的契机在哪里呢?福克斯商业记者Susan Li称,这次油价暴跌危机的根源在于沙特和俄罗斯对减产计划的分歧,如果两大产油国改变主意重新坐回谈判桌上,市场或出现新的转机。福克斯表示,昨天的油价暴跌可能会给沙俄两国带来警示:因为双方都不能承受油价的长期动荡。

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President Donald Trump speaks about the mid-air crash between American Airlines flight 5342 and a military helicopter in Washington. Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
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President Donald Trump on Thursday blamed the Federal Aviation Administration’s “diversity push” in part for the plane collision that killed 67 people in Washington, DC. But DEI backers, including most top US companies, believe a push for diversity has been good for their businesses.
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It’s not the first time opponents of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, or DEI, have said they can kill people. “DEI means people DIE,” Elon Musk said after the California wildfires, criticizing the Los Angeles Fire Department and city and state officials for their efforts to advance diversity in their workforces.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, US President Donald Trump and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Getty Images
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From fiery festivals to nature's most dazzling "sky-dance", interest in the night skies is booming, with "noctourism" poised to be a major travel trend in 2025.
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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These apes can tell when humans don’t know something, study finds
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Some great apes realize when a human partner doesn’t know something and are capable of communicating information to them to change their behavior, a new study shows.
Researchers from Johns Hopkins University studying bonobos found that they would point to where treats were hidden if they could see their human partner didn’t know where they were, according to a statement from the university, published Monday.
Working with three male bonobos, study co-author Luke Townrow, a Johns Hopkins PhD student, would sit across a table from one of the animals as another person placed a treat under one of three cups.
In some cases, Townrow would be allowed to see which cup the treat was under, and the bonobo would wait for him to pass it the food.
At other times, he would not be able to see where the treat was, and the bonobo would point to the right cup to help him find the food.
The “seemingly simple experiment that demonstrated for the first time that apes will communicate unknown information in the name of teamwork,” the statement reads.
And study co-author Chris Krupenye, a Johns Hopkins assistant professor of psychological and brain sciences, told CNN that the study “is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that a non-human primate understands when someone else is ignorant.”
This ability to intuit gaps in others’ knowledge is known as theory of mind.
“As humans we have theory of mind, the ability to think about others’ perspectives,” Krupenye told CNN on Tuesday.
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A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
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Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?
The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.
Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.
When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.
We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.
In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.
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Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
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Amaghlobeli was arrested Jan. 12 during an anti-government protest in the coastal city of Batumi, one of over 40 people in custody on criminal charges from a series of demonstrations that have hit the South Caucasus nation of 3.7 million in recent months.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.
Protests highlight battle over Georgia's future. Here's why it matters.
Its outcome pushed Georgia further into Russia's orbit of influence. Georgia aspired to join the European Union, but the party suspended accession talks with the bloc after the election.
As it sought to cement its grip on power, Georgian Dream has cracked down on freedom of assembly and expression in what the opposition says is similar to President Vladimir Putin's actions in neighboring Russia, its former imperial ruler.
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Carrie Underwood slated to perform at Trump’s inauguration
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Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.
“I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”
The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.
Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.
Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.
In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.
The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.
While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.
Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.
Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.
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