全球宽松狂潮推进,欧元命运将被改写?

2020年05月29日 8307点热度 0人点赞 1,626条评论

欧元喜提一大利好连涨3日,但后市似乎不太乐观....

 

全球宽松狂潮推进,欧元命运将被改写?

欧元连日上涨,欧元兑美元在过去三个交易日上涨了1.6%。如此喜人的涨势,除了因为美元疲态,还得益于欧盟执委会周三公布的一项计划。

北京时间5月27日傍晚,欧盟委员会通过7500亿欧元的抗疫复苏法案,并酝酿未来7年总值1.1万亿欧元的欧盟预算及抗疫复苏基金。

事实上,一直以来在外汇市场上,由于欧元是世界上第二大贸易货币,欧元的吸引力可能仅次于美元。

美元一向被视为世界储备货币,在贸易额中所占的份额是欧元的两到三倍。确实,美元是一种更通用的交易货币。然而,欧元也具有流动性,这得益于其“融资货币”的特征。融资货币通常是指低利率或负利率的货币,极具流动性,易于出售,因此人们通常会借入欧元来购买风险资产。

当然,凡事具有两面,作为融资货币的欧元也容易带来风险——例如,如果欧元上涨,用于套利的外国交易员可能会因借贷成本飙升而损失惨重。

不过,今年以来,一场席卷全球的宽松潮改变了这一趋势。

首先,今年全球利率大幅下降,包括美联储、加拿大央行和英国央行等主要央行都处于或接近于零利率。

欧洲央行的基准利率仍为-0.50%,而与此同时美联储的利率区间也下调至0.00-0.25%。因此,尽管目前美元仍具有正利差,但微弱的优势使得套利行为变得不那么吸引了。

有分析指出,在大幅度降息之后,美联储等头部央行今年将不会加息,因此欧元作为融资货币的吸引力将会进一步下降。

复苏经济是维持宽松措施的原因之一,SeekingAlpha分析师还指出了另一个有悖于常识的原因:这些央行进一步降息反而打击该国股市,因为股市溢价可能会随着国债收益率的降低而下降。

如下图所示,在2019年8月,美国10年期国债收益率约为1.75%。如今,因为债券市场预期未来长期利率会降低,美债10年期收益率已经下跌至0.75%左右。

这两个收益率水平对股市意味着什么?

按照股权风险溢价公式,若国债收益率大幅走低,假设风险溢价不变,意味着企业将支付更多股息。

(注:股权风险溢价(ERP),就是投资人可从股息收益及获利驱动的股价预测中所获得的回报,比无风险债券收益率高出的部分。)

根据外媒汇编的数据,由于收益率暴跌,目前标准普尔500指数中派息高于当前10年期美国国债的公司有388家。相比之下,今年年初有241家公司上市。

另外,在低利率环境下,企业折现后的长期盈利也可能走低。

出于种种考虑,美联储短期内加息的可能性不大,因为这可能导致股市和其他资产再次螺旋式下跌。其他央行也是一样的道理。

这意味着,全球利率可能至少在2020年剩余时间内保持宽松。因此,尽管短期看,欧元兑美元的利差可能仍然很紧张;但从套利交易的角度来看,欧元的套利价值已经大打折扣。

另外一个关注点是欧洲政局稳定的问题。

目前看来欧元兑美元未来的波动性有变小的迹象,这避免了欧元兑美元跌向平价,但是欧盟财政问题、英欧谈判的消息随时会打乱汇市的平静。

此前因债市对意大利财政危机产生忧虑,意大利和德国政府债券之间的利差不断走低,这使得欧元走低。此外,英国脱欧不确定性也会带来风险。因此,欧元未来还是面临很大的下行风险。

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    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

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    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

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    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

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    ‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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    By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.

    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

    “It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
    ‘I’ve got something special here’
    Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.

    Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.

    2025年2月20日
  • Travisscoks

    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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    2025年2月20日
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    ‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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    By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.

    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

    “It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
    ‘I’ve got something special here’
    Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.

    Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.

    2025年2月20日
  • Willietow

    LSU criticized after bringing caged live tiger into stadium before defeat to Alabama
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    No. 15 LSU has been criticized for unveiling a live caged tiger in its stadium for the first time in almost a decade before they were routed 42-13 by No. 11 Alabama in their SEC showdown.

    Ahead of “The First Saturday in November,” a live tiger named Omar Bradley, owned by Florida resident Mitchel Kalmanson, was brought out in an enclosed cage with a black curtain over it, before the stadium lights went dark and a spotlight flashed onto the cage as it was unveiled.
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    The tiger laid down and then paced around his cage, which was attached to a truck, while photographers crowded around it, still keeping their distance. After a few minutes, the cage was slowly driven off the field at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

    LSU has a long tradition of bringing caged tigers into the stadium on gamedays but, since 2015, the school has moved away from this and instead keeps its current live tiger mascot named Mike VII in a 15,000-square-foot enclosure on campus.
    But Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry pushed for the return of this tradition, much to the frustration of the LSU community, which circulated several petitions against the practice which gathered more than 27,000 signatures between them by Sunday morning.

    Footage posted on social media also showed protesters outside the stadium holding placards with slogans including, “Justice for Omar” and “Did Tiger King teach us nothin’.”

    For Landry, having a live tiger on the field was all about “tradition,” he told FOX News on Friday.

    “This is about from Mike One through Six, we have had a live mascot on the field like many other colleges have before,” he said.

    2025年2月20日
  • TravisTop

    Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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  • JamesVor

    Police raided a forger’s workshop in Rome. They found dozens of pieces, including fake Picassos and Rembrandts
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    Italian police have seized dozens of forged artworks attributed to famous artists such as Picasso and Rembrandt in what authorities have called a “clandestine painting laboratory.”

    The investigation, led by the Carabinieri Command for the Protection of Cultural Heritage, the country’s arts and culture police, and coordinated with the Rome prosecutor’s office, started when authorities began searching for fraudulent works that had been put for sale online, according to a press release issued by the police.

    Police said they found a total of 71 paintings, adding that the suspect was selling “hundreds of works of dubious authenticity” on sites like eBay and Catawiki.

    Paintings attributed to the likes of Pablo Picasso and Rembrandt Harmenszoon van Rijn were among the works of art.

    There were also forged pieces purporting to be from Mario Puccini, Giacomo Balla and Afro Basaldella, as well as several other celebrated artists.

    The workshop where the paintings were being produced was located by police to a house in one of Rome’s northern neighbourhoods.

    Authorities arrived to find a room set up solely for the production of counterfeit paintings. Among the materials seized by the police were hundreds of tubes of paint, brushes, easels, along with falsified gallery stamps and artist signatures.
    The suspect, described by authorities as a “forger-restorer,” was even in possession of a typewriter and computer devices used to create paintings and falsify certificates of authenticity for the fraudulent pieces.

    One tactic the suspect used was to collage over auction catalogues, replacing the painter’s original work with an image of the fake art he created, police said. This would give the appearance that the fake painting had been the real one all along.

    Police also found various works still in the process of being made on the forger’s table bearing the signatures of different artists – leading them to believe that the suspect had created them recently.

    This is far from the first time that Italian authorities have unearthed forged artworks. Established in 1969, the Carabinieri art police are specialized in combatting crimes relating to arts and culture.

    In 2023, they recovered thousands of artifacts stolen from graves and archaeological digs.

    2025年2月21日
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    Airbus exploring double-level airplane seat design
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    If you’ve seen images of the infamous double-level airplane seat concept and thought “that’s never going to happen” — maybe think again.

    Aviation start-up Chaise Longue, the brains behind the controversial dual-level seat, announced today it’s “exploring some early stage concepts” with aviation giant Airbus.

    This collaboration with an aircraft manufacturing heavyweight is a significant step in this seat design’s journey from college student project to potential in-air reality.

    Designer and Chaise Longue CEO Alejandro Nunez Vicente tells CNN Travel he’s thankful Airbus sees “the true potential of two-level seating.”

    An Airbus representative confirmed to CNN Travel that “Chaise Longue is exploring some early stage concepts with Airbus on two-level seating solutions for Airbus commercial aircraft.”

    The representative added that “given the nature of this early phase level,” Airbus preferred “not to further comment at this stage.”
    The crux of Nunez Vicente’s Chaise Longue seat design is the removal of the overhead cabin to allow two levels of seats in a single aircraft cabin.

    The idea is that travelers would have the option of booking the top row or the bottom row — and while the lower level might look less-than-appealing in photos, bottom passengers would be able to stretch out their legs and enjoy extra leg room. The top level is also designed to give “larger recline angles” and “leg-stretching possibility” than your average economy airplane seat, says Nunez Vicente.

    Nunez Vicente initially developed the design for economy cabins before last year premiering a business class/first class iteration.

    CNN Travel tested out early prototypes of both concepts and concluded that while the lower level has definite claustrophobia potential, the increased leg room could cancel out the potential cabin fever for some passengers.

    2025年2月23日