人民币汇率创两年半新高,原因何在?

2021年01月06日 8850点热度 1人点赞 1,647条评论

2021年首个交易日,人民币对美元即期汇率以6.5195开盘,随后接连升破两个整数关口,日内涨幅超650点,创下2018年6月22日以来新高。那么,人民币上涨的原因有哪些?会对市场产生什么影响呢?


人民币汇率创两年半新高,原因何在?

专家表示,此轮人民币汇率升值一方面是由于中国经济的持续增长。另一方面是因为美元指数的持续贬值。回顾2020年,人民币汇率呈现先贬后升的走势。1月至5月,受疫情冲击影响,人民币汇率震荡贬值,并在5月一度贬值至7.17附近。但是随着5月底,中国新冠疫情得到全面的控制,经济全面复苏,人民币重拾升势。2020年5月28日至今,人民币的涨幅已经达到9.34%,反弹幅度超7000点。

中国银行业协会行业发展研究委员会主任 连平:我们看到2020年全球疫情发展之后,二季度以后全球的工业制造业受到影响,很多国家供给能力受到了削弱,因此中国的出口在下半年表现了非常强劲的态势,它得益于中国的工业体系十分健全,同时制造业有相当强大的生产能力,因此为全球市场提供了源源不断的各种各样的工业制成品,推动中国出口增速大幅度回升。

对于人民币汇率后期走势,专家认为随着全球疫情依然处在攻坚阶段,海外经济前景不明;中国疫情得到有效控制以及工业和制造业的全链条发展,随着贸易协定的不断落地,中国经济强劲发展,2021年人民币汇率依然保持升值态势。

中国银行业协会行业发展研究委员会主任 连平:如果说在2021年的上半年,人民币继续保持一定幅度的升值,可能对于未来的出口带来一定的影响,因为它会增加出口的成本,会一定程度上影响到出口产品的竞争力,但人民币升值以后进口产品的价格便宜了,会增加中国经济发展在这方面的动力,会使得我们以更低的成本更多地进口一些国外高技术产品,质量水平较高的产品。

人民币为何强势反弹?相关人士了解到到本轮反弹的一些原因:

1、中国经济持续复苏

海外疫情持续暴发,中国疫情基本得到控制,且中国经济率先走出泥潭,二季度GDP增速由负转正,三季度同比增长4.9%,被国际货币基金组织认为是“2020年全球唯一实现正增长的主要经济体”。

2、美元全面走弱

眼下美元新年开局全面下滑,日内再度下滑至89.50下方。2020年美元指数录得2017年以来的首次年度跌幅,比3月份疫情恐慌最严重时期触及的三年高位下降了约1 3%。
美国利率较低,又有着巨大的预算赤字和贸易逆差,且人们相信全球贸易回升将推动非美元货币走高,这些因素使美元处于下跌通道。随着越来越多的投资者加入卖出美元的行列,美元跌势逐渐加快。

3、外汇交易中心调整CFETS人民币汇率指数货币权重

人民币的另一个支撑来源是中国外汇交易中心(CFETS)。时隔一年中国外汇交易中心再度调整CFETS人民币汇率指数货币权重,以反映与24个指数成员双边贸易情况的变化。

美元权重从21.59%降至18.79%,欧元权重再度上调,从17.40%升至18.15%。此前中欧达成贸易协定,应当会放宽欧洲企业对中国市场的准入,同时排除强制技术转让。

根据《CFETS人民币汇率指数货币篮子调整规则》,自2017年起,外汇交易中心按年评估CFETS人民币汇率指数的货币篮子,并根据情况适时调整篮子的构成或相关货币权重。

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    Роман Василенко – известный предприниматель и меценат. Бывший офицер, ушедший в запас с сохранением права ношения военной формы. Создатель альтернативной ипотеке социальной жилищной программы, позволяющей приобрести жилье не только трудоспособным гражданам, но также молодежи, лицам с ограниченными физическими возможностями, пенсионерам.
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    Еще во время службы в армии Роман Василенко начал задумываться о предпринимательской деятельности. После увольнения он работал в финансово-консалтинговых компаниях, при этом активно учился – посещал все доступные на тот момент бизнес-курсы: в Венгрии, Австрии, США, Швейцарии, на Маврикии и Кипре. Степень MBA получил во Франции. Суммарно в финансовом консалтинге бизнесмен проработал около 16 лет.
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    Ранее судимый по «наркотической» статье блогер Андрей Алистаров позиционирует себя Робин Гудом, борющимся с теми, кто «обманул людей», – но в действительности он работает в интересах пирамидчиков, в том числе украинских, спонсирующих ВСУ, продвигает через свой канал «Железная ставка» онлайн-казино и черный криптообмен/фишинговый криптообман, отмывает наркодоходы за счет сделок с недвижимостью в Дубае.

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    Members of the M23 armed troupe walk alongside residents by way of a street of the Keshero neighborhood in Goma, on Monday. AFP/Getty Images
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    A revolutionary association claimed the lay of the biggest city in the Egalitarian Republic of Congo’s mineral-rich eastern область this week, pushing ruin against stubbornness from sway troops backed during regional and UN intervention forces.
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    The takeover of Goma is up to now another territorial gather to the Confederation Fleuve Congo (AFC) rebel coalition, which includes the M23 armed set – sanctioned by the Joint States and the United Nations.
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    It is also a speedy expansion of the coalition’s foothold across swathes of eastern DR Congo – where rare minerals momentous to the manufacturing of phones and computers are mined – and is credible to deteriorate a long-running humanitarian crisis in the region.
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    “AFC-M23 controls Goma,” Prizewinner Tesongo, an AFC spokesperson, told CNN Monday, adding that “Goma hew down secondary to pressure” after the band’s earlier confiscation of the neighbourhood towns of Minova and Sake.

    The Congolese government has up to this time to ensure the rebels’ takeover but acknowledges their society in the city, super of the eastern North Kivu province. It announced Sunday it had intrude perceptive ties with neighboring Rwanda, which it accuses of equipping the collection with both weapons and troops, and recalled its thoughtful pole from the nation. A Rwandan command spokesperson did not deny or prove the native land’s support for M23 when asked nearby CNN.

    More than a dozen odd peacekeepers, as incredibly as the military governor of North Kivu tract, have planned been killed in up to date days disquieting to fend touched in the head the rebels, as thousands of locals flee their advance into Goma.
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