本周市场大事不断!美联储决议与“恐怖数据”驾到中美将举行高层会晤缅甸局势恶化、示威活动已致126人死亡

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本周市场大事不断!美联储决议与“恐怖数据”驾到中美将举行高层会晤缅甸局势恶化、示威活动已致126人死亡

美元指数基本持稳,现报91.70附近;现货黄金自日内高点回落,目前位于1726美元/盎司左右,亚市早盘金价一度逼近1735美元/盎司。本周多家央行将公布利率决议,其中最为关键的将是美联储利率利率决议以及美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。经济数据方面,美国将公布包括零售销售在内的重要经济数据。地缘政治局势方面,中美本周将举行高级别会晤,这将受到投资者的高度关注,假如会晤传出较为乐观的信息,市场风险偏好情绪可能会升温,这将对金价构成打击。此外,缅甸局势进一步恶化,截止目前示威活动已导致126人死亡。
因美元小幅回落和股市走软抵消了美国国债收益率上升带来的压力,金价上周五小幅走高。现货黄金收报1726.96美元/盎司,上涨4.51美元或0.26%  金价上周五在1700.00美元/盎司关口找到坚固支撑,并明显反弹。假如金价突破1735.00美元/盎司,这将推动金价继续升势并涨向下一目标1765.00美元/盎司。但倘若金价自1724.00美元/盎司区域回落,这将令金价施压并重回看空轨道,首个目标位于1692.00美元/盎司。
根据Kitco News上周五(3月12日)公布的黄金调查结果,黄金市场的看跌情绪似乎正在发生变化,金价将保持在1700美元/盎司上方,分析师认为市场至少有短期触底的迹象。
上周,有16位专业分析师参与了调查。共有6位分析师(38%)预计金价本周将上涨。与此同时,看跌者和中立者打成平手,5位分析师(31%)预计本周价格将走低,也有同样多的分析师预计价格将横向波动。
许多分析师表示,美国最新的财政刺激支出将继续为黄金提供长期支撑。不过,也有人指出,最新的支出法案将提振增长预期,推高股市和债券收益率。
Phoenix Futures and Options LLC总裁Kevin Grady说道:“令人失望的是,在1.9万亿美元的经济刺激方案通过之后,金价没有走高。如果金价不能在此基础上上涨,我不知道什么会推高它。”
Adrian Day资产管理公司总裁Adrian Day表示,他不看好本周的黄金。不过,他补充称,他认为金价正接近周期性低点。
Forexlive.com外汇策略主管Adam Button表示,他看好金价,因为金价能守住约1680美元的支撑位。他说:“市场正在学习接受更高的利率,美联储本周的信息将是,他们将非常耐心。”
美联储决议重磅来袭
香港时间周四02:00,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将公布利率决议;香港时间周四02:30,美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。
近期美债收益率持续攀升引发市场不安,投资者担心美国经济过热。美联储似乎淡定看待收益率,本周联储将召开政策会议,投资人将从中揣度其最新看法。
巴克莱(Barclays)预计,美联储可能会继续通过各种论调或指引,使股市投资者相信,目前市场对美联储何时加息以及加息幅度的预期显得“过于激进”。美联储还可能讨论短期通胀与长期通胀之间的关系。
当地时间1月27日,美联储在为期两日的政策会议后表示,将维持指标短期借款利率在接近零的水平,并维持资产购买计划,即美联储每月至少购买1200亿美元,符合市场预期。FOMC在会后声明中写道:“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏步伐放缓,疲弱集中在受疫情影响最严重的行业。”声明重申,新冠疫情“正在美国和世界各地造成巨大的人力和经济困难。”
美联储鲍威尔1月27日会议后的新闻发布会上表示,美联储将维持宽松的货币政策,直至双重实现目标。美联储合理的状态将是高水平的宽松。鲍威尔当日指出,锚定通胀预期具有重要意义,美国经济距离取得实质性进展可能还有“一段时间”。他还表示,现在还不是讨论关于缩减资产购买力度的日期的时候。
美国10年期国债收益率上周五攀升至1.6%以上。当前收益率和黄金之间的相关性是,随着收益率上升,黄金价格下跌。到目前为止,美联储在很大程度上忽略了这个问题,这就是为什么本周美联储主席鲍威尔将在宣布利率后举行新闻发布会时受到所有人的关注。
RJO Futures资深大宗商品经纪商Daniel Pavilonis指出,就连欧洲央行上周四也表示,它担心通货膨胀和印钞。Pavilonis称,如果美联储也发表类似言论,那将对黄金有利,收益率上升的事实可能表明美联储正在失去控制。
道明证券全球策略主管Bart Melek表示,鲍威尔不太可能就收益率曲线发表任何重要的新评论。鲍威尔将向我们保证,现在谈论加息还为时过早。他说:“上次,当收益率大幅上升,而风险偏好没有受到影响时,他的态度相当模棱两可。”
Phoenix Futures and Options LLC总裁Kevin Grady补充说,鲍威尔可能会试图“通过谈话降低收益率”。
此外,市场也将看到美联储更新后的季度预测。荷兰国际集团(ING)的经济学家预计,美国2021年的GDP预期将被上调。
该行经济学家们说道:“也会有很多人对联邦基金利率点阵图感兴趣。美联储2023年点阵图的中值是否会变为加息25个基点?可能不会,但如果这样做了,美元很可能会升值。但FOMC基本不变的声明,以及鲍威尔在新闻发布会上重申,美联储在削减刺激措施之前还有很长的路要走,应该可以防止美元走得太远。 ”
“恐怖数据”驾到
香港时间周二20:30,美国将公布2月零售销售数据。零售销售数据能直接反映消费情况,对经济有重要指引作用,因此受到投资者高度关注。
媒体调查显示,美国2月零售销售月率料下降0.5%,上月为增长5.3%。
(美国零售销售月率走势图来源:FX168)
调查并显示,美国2月核心零售销售月率料上升0.1%,上月为增长5.9%。
美国零售销售数据素有“恐怖数据”之称,因其通常对金融市场有较大的影响,因此很可能对美元、黄金等资产走势产生影响。
分析师指出,假如美国零售销售数据表现逊于预期,美元可能会遭受打击,金价有望反弹。
除了零售销售之外,本周美国还将有一系列其它新的经济数据需要关注。周一将公布纽约联储制造业指数,周二将公布工业生产数据。美国周三将公布房屋开工和营建许可数据,周四将公布费城联储制造业指数和初请失业金人数。
中美将举行高层会晤
3月18日至19日,美国国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)和国家安全顾问沙利文(Jake Sullivan)将在阿拉斯加的安克雷奇与中国主管外事工作的政治局委员杨洁篪和中国国务委员兼外长王毅会晤。这将是拜登政府任期内两国间的首次面对面会晤。
当地时间3月10日,美国国务院在其网站发表声明称,美国国务卿布林肯及国家安全顾问沙利文将于3月18日在美国阿拉斯加安克雷奇与中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪及国务委员兼外交部长王毅举行会晤,并将与中方就一系列问题展开对话。
根据中国外交部网站3月11日消息,外交部发言人赵立坚宣布:应美方邀请,中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪、国务委员兼外长王毅将同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文于3月18日至19日在安克雷奇举行中美高层战略对话。
布林肯3月10日在国会众议院外交事务委员会的一场听证中表示,这场会晤将有机会以“坦率的”方式向北京阐述美方关切。他说:“我们打算,也将会提出很多议题。”他表示,会谈也将探索是否存在与北京合作的渠道。
赵立坚在回应美国务卿布林肯有关表态时指出,应美方邀请,中美将于近期举行高层战略对话。中方对中美关系的立场是明确的。我们要求美方客观、理性看待中国和中美关系,摒弃冷战、零和思维,尊重中方的主权、安全和发展利益。停止干涉中国内政,按照两国元首通话精神,聚焦合作、管控分歧,推动中美关系重回健康稳定发展的正确轨道。
美国国务院发言人普莱斯(Ned Price)3月11日对记者表示,这将是一次“困难的”对话。他说:“我们将坦率地解释北京的行动和行为是如何挑战安全、繁荣和价值观的,不仅是美国,还有我们的伙伴和盟友。”普莱斯表示:“就这种双边接触而言,我们希望北京方面表现出认真的态度,对自己经常表示的改变两国双边关系基调的愿望表现出认真态度。”
白宫新闻秘书普萨基(Jen Psaki)称,美国官员将在会谈中谈到中国穆斯林维吾尔族的“种族灭绝”问题。普萨基说道:“美国的立场当然是,正在发生的是种族灭绝,我们将寻找机会与其他伙伴合作,对中国施加更多压力。这将是本周的讨论话题。”
普莱斯表示,在与盟友磋商后,华盛顿在以强势地位接近中国的目标上取得了进展。为此目的,布林肯向代表众多伙伴和盟国的外交部长们发表了讲话。上个月,布林肯参加了欧盟外交事务理事会(European Union Foreign Affairs Council)会议,并将于下周对日本和韩国进行首次外交访问。
普莱斯指出,拜登政府还重新参与了《巴黎气候协定》,寻求重申核心民主价值观,并试图整顿国内的秩序,包括加强供应链的早期步骤——所有这些步骤都旨在打击中国的自信。
普莱斯说:“我们一直在为我们的盟友说话,并谴责中国对许多这些共同的、甚至普遍的价值观的侮辱,无论是在新疆,还是在香港,或在台湾,或在世界任何地方。 ”他说,这些问题很可能是阿拉斯加州会谈的主题。他补充说:“有很多分歧。我们肯定不会有所保留。”普莱斯说,与此同时,拜登政府认识到中美“多方面”关系中可能进行合作的领域,包括气候变化领域,条件是北京方面言行一致。
当地时间3月12日,沙利文出席在白宫出席记者会时表示,不认为第一阶段的贸易协议会成为本周的主要话题。沙利文说,美国官员本周会见北京高级别外交官时,将对中国在香港的行动以及涉及技术的安全风险表示担忧。沙利文表示,美国官员还将处理上周五亚洲盟友提出的有关中国“胁迫澳大利亚”和“在中印边界激进行动”等问题。
在前总统特朗普执政期间,美国和中国的关系降至几十年来的最低水平,两国互相祭出制裁措施并互相加征关税,驱逐记者,关闭领事馆。
中美两国元首在2月11日农历新年前夕通了电话,通话时间长达两个多小时。尽管发出了“破冰”呼吁,但中国和美国仍处于激烈的地缘政治竞争之中,并在从香港和台湾、贸易战到新疆人权侵犯等问题上存在分歧。但双方都明白两国关系的重要性,美国国务卿布林肯称,中美关系“可能是世界上最重要的关系”。
布林肯在2月早些时候与杨洁篪通电话时说,美国将捍卫新疆、西藏和香港的人权和民主价值观。布林肯还敦促中国谴责缅甸的军事政变,并重申华盛顿将与盟友合作,要求中国对威胁包括台湾海峡在内的印太地区稳定的行为负责。
《华尔街日报》援引拜登政府官员的话说,美中高层会议的目标是就双方对各自国内政治的期望和计划,以及国际、地区和全球目标交换意见,话题将包括新冠疫情,气候变化,以及双方有分歧的香港台湾议题,以及中国对澳大利亚的经济打压等。
复旦大学美国研究中心韦宗友教授认为,在拜登政府重新评估特朗普的对华政策之际,如此高水平的会晤可能有助于为中美两国关系设定基调和方向。韦宗友表示:“双方可能会就如何管理中美之间的竞争以及加强务实合作进行磋商和讨论。高级别会晤还将表明,两国领导人不希望双边关系继续沿着特朗普时代的对抗道路发展。”韦宗友表示,还有一种可能性是,这次会晤可能有助于为习近平主席和拜登总统未来的会晤奠定基础。
缅甸局势继续恶化示威活动已致126人死亡
缅甸军政府实施“政变”以来,民间示威活动愈演愈烈,据媒体报道,周日(3月14日)至少39人在示威活动中遭到杀害,成为军方政变以来的“最血腥”一日。缅甸军方周日晚间并宣布,位于第一大城仰光的莱达雅区及雪比达区都进入戒严状态。
据路透报道,缅甸援助政治犯协会(Assistance Association for Political Prisoners)表示,3月14日,在缅甸主要城市仰光的莱达雅地区,安全部队打死了至少22名反对政变的抗议者,此前在那里的中资企业或中缅合资企业被纵火。另有16名抗议者和一名警察在其他地方被杀,这是自2月1日针对民选领导人昂山素季的政变以来最血腥的一天。缅甸援助政治犯协会提到,截至目前已知在抗争活动中死亡的人数累计已达126人。
周日也传出有多间中资工厂遭到破坏、起火燃烧。据央视新闻消息,自当地时间3月14日下午开始至傍晚,缅甸仰光多个工业区的十多家工厂遭遇纵火和打砸,涉及企业多数为中资企业或中缅合资企业,其中以服装加工厂、服装辅料厂和配套设备厂为主。纵火者大多骑着摩托车,带有铁棍、斧子和汽油桶,冲进工厂以后先是打砸和恐吓工厂值班人员,之后便开始纵火。目前,尚无法确定纵火者身份。
据《香港经济日报》周一报道称,缅甸当地有十余家工厂遭纵火打砸,多数为中资或中缅合资企业,其中以服装加工厂、服装辅料厂和配套设备厂为主。有在缅甸从事纺织行业的华人表示:“就在刚才,我们又接到了很多中资企业的反馈,已经有超过20家企业遭到不同程度打砸、纵火。现在情况正朝向不可控的方向发展。局势还没有停息,还在蔓延、恶化。”
缅甸国家管理委员会3月14日晚宣布,在仰光部分地区实施军事管制。根据缅甸国家管理委员会发布的消息,位于仰光莱达雅和瑞必达两个镇区的部分工厂当天遭纵火,消防人员赶往现场时遭到制造事端人群阻拦。为有效维护安定与法治,决定在这两个地区实施军事管制,由仰光地区军事长官负责行使行政和司法权力。
缅甸去年11月举行联邦议会选举,全国民主联盟(民盟)获半数以上联邦议会席位。缅甸军方与民盟围绕大选结果产生分歧,军方认为大选存在舞弊行为,要求选举委员会展开调查,并推迟召开新一届联邦议会会议。今年2月1日凌晨,缅甸总统温敏、国务资政昂山素季及民盟部分高级官员被军方扣押。缅甸军方随后宣布实施为期一年的紧急状态,国家权力被移交给国防军总司令敏昂莱。2月2日,缅甸国家管理委员会成立,敏昂莱任委员会主席。
根据中国驻缅甸使馆网站3月14日消息,中国驻缅甸使馆发言人就在缅中资企业遭打砸抢烧发表谈话。3月14日下午,缅甸仰光莱达雅工业区多家中资工厂遭不法分子打砸抢烧,多名中方人员受伤,有员工一度被困。中国驻缅甸使馆第一时间同缅甸中国企业商会和相关企业取得联系,迅速要求当地警方采取有力措施,保障中资企业及人员安全。使馆还再次向中国在缅企业和人员发出安全提示。
使馆发言人指出,中国对缅友好政策面向全体缅甸人民,中缅经贸合作始终基于互利共赢原则,尤其注重惠及缅当地民众。此次受害的绝大多数企业来自纺织制衣行业,中方企业在这个领域的投资为缅甸创造近40万个就业机会。不法分子的行为同样损害缅甸民众的利益。
使馆发言人说道:“这次打砸抢烧事件性质十分恶劣。中方要求缅方采取进一步有效措施,制止一切暴力行为,依法查处相关肇事者,确保在缅中国企业和人员的生命和财产安全。我们呼吁缅甸民众合法表达诉求,不被煽动和利用,破坏中缅友好合作。”
对于中国支持缅甸军方的说法,中国驻缅甸大使陈海曾回应称,外传中国飞机运送技术人员赴缅、帮助缅甸建防火墙、中国士兵出现在缅甸街头等,这些说法完全是无稽之谈,十分可笑。如果这类流言能在缅甸有市场,只能说明其背后有别有用心的势力在操控和煽动。
缅甸去年11月举行联邦议会选举,全国民主联盟(民盟)获半数以上联邦议会席位。缅甸军方与民盟围绕大选结果产生分歧,军方认为大选存在舞弊行为,要求选举委员会展开调查,并推迟召开新一届联邦议会会议。今年2月1日凌晨,缅甸总统温敏、国务资政昂山素季及民盟部分高级官员被军方扣押。缅甸军方随后宣布实施为期一年的紧急状态,国家权力被移交给国防军总司令敏昂莱。2月2日,缅甸国家管理委员会成立,敏昂莱任委员会主席。


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    Моисеев Георгий Валерьянович

    В 2022 году в ПК «Бест Вей» п(Р)оявился очень активный и идейный пайщик. Как комсомольский активист – деловой, улыбчивый и разговорчивый.

    Пайщики, которые после самых первых «полицейских набегов» оказались в некотором информационном вакууме, прибились к активисту и поверили ему, как отцу родному.

    На протяжении двух с лишним лет активист пытался позиционировать себя, как защитник кооператива и пайщиков. Проводил встречи, что –то рассказывал и пояснял. Именно что –то.

    Знакомьтесь:
    Шарлатан всея Руси.
    Представляется как Моисеев Георгий Валерьянович, пайщик кооператива «Бест Вей», профессиональный юрист.

    На самом же деле корыстный прилипала, необразованный, непорядочный, лживый и хитрый мерзавец, наживающийся на проблемах пайщиков.
    А вот что он научился делать профессионально, так это оборачивать в свою материальную выгоду сложные ситуации людей, обращающихся к нему за помощью.
    Неприкрыто лжет в проводимых эфирах, в комментариях своего чата, и завуалировано, а чаще открыто пытается очернить действующее руководство и защитников кооператива «Бест Вей».

    А еще и появилась информация о сотрудничестве Гуру –Георгия с правоохранительными органами. В целях избежать личной ответственности и поскорее разрушить кооператив «Бест Вей». Так, наши источники располагают информацией о том, что в октябре 2024 года было принято решение об отказе в возбуждении уголовного дела в отношении Георгия Моисеева. При этом в показаниях, данных Георгием, присутствуют очень интересные моменты, как, например, полное отречение от владения чатом «Мифы о компании» … и другие …

    Ну и венец его «профессионализма» - это вопиющие ляпы при проведении видеовстреч.

    Одни из последних:
    Эфир от 25.11.2024 г.: На вопрос пайщика, как всё же должна быть подана жалоба на решение суда о незаконности деятельности ПК, Георгий ответил: Подавать от неопределенного круга лиц … (у слушающих Георгия юристов –«кровь из ушей»).

    Тот же эфир: было сказано про «отзыв на апелляционную жалобу».
    Ч. 2. Ст. 325 ГПК РФ: «Лица, участвующие в деле, вправе представить в суд первой инстанции возражения в письменной форме …»
    Профессиональные юристы используют терминологию в соответствии с процессуальными нормами –если отзыв, то отзыв, если возражения, то –возражения…
    Человеку без специального образования это ни о чем не скажет, а вот настоящему профессионалу ухо изрядно режет.

    Список будем продолжать …

    Теперь по порядку и доступно.

    "Если друг оказался вдруг"

    Если человек в свое время сделал благое дело, проявлял себя как верный помощник, значит ли это, что он действительно действовал искренне, имея желание помочь и спасти нуждающихся в помощи и спасении?

    Или он пытался показаться соратником и сподвижником, потому что было выгодно двигаться сообща? Потому что одни шли с благой целью спасти и помочь, а нашему лжедругу Георгию так было надо? Что бы собрать как можно больше людей, нуждающихся в помощи и поддержке? Ведь это очень уязвимая категория- они готовы поверить не проверяя, лишь бы маяк надежды не угасал. И вот, на растерянности и боли людей, Георгий собирает огромное количество человек, доказывает свою якобы бескорыстность, и, добившись беззаветной веры в него, как в мессию, понемногу начинает продвигать свои отнюдь не благие идеи.

    До лета 2024 года он понемногу обирал людей – на заключении договоров цессии, на установлении права собственности на объект недвижимости, на правовых консультациях и, наверное, на хлеб хватало …

    Но в октябре 2024 года перед нашим шарлатаном замаячило уголовное преследование… Задумаемся: мог вызов, допрос или другие следственные действия так повлиять на кардинальный разворот мыслей человека? За какие ниточки подергали наши недруги, чем припугнули: карьера, репутация, семья, свобода? Мы уже видели шантаж, запугивания, угрозы реальным заключением. И не каждому удалось выдержать давление. Кто-то выбрал путь наименьшего сопротивления и стал играть сам за себя. А кто-то стал играть против своих, ради спасения или ради выгоды.

    И тут Георгия от страха п(р)онесло …

    Несколько мыслей для рассуждения

    Кардинальная смена позиции

    Буквально недавно мы слышали лозунги и призывы наказать, взыскать, посадить недругов. И вдруг мы слышим: "Они все правильно делают, мы сами виноваты" Дальше что? "Давайте придем с повинной головой, согласимся со всеми обвинениями, передадим все НАШЕ имущество, объявим благодарность следственной группе и всем-всем за то, что проявили о нас заботу. А мы, неразумные, никак не хотели понять, что нас защищают. От наших денег, квартир, планов, прав и свобод. Поклонимся в пол. И, возможно, эти заботливые люди простят нас недалёких."
    К этому мы шли все эти годы борьбы?

    Доверенность под прикрытием

    Несколько фактов:
    руководство кооператива не сдается, отстаивает права пайщиков
    не отдает на растерзание имущество, за каждую квартиру бьётся и в собственность пайщикам передает ОН
    добилось-таки снятия ареста со всех квартир, чтоб люди могли в собственность без лишних проблем переводить ОН
    в судах поддерживает пайщиков, требования по возврату паевых признает
    за деньги на счетах вцепилось мертвой хваткой. Сотни ходатайств и обжалований ради снятия ареста со счетов
    на каждое заседание приезжает председатель и адвокаты
    нашли способ и документы восстанавливать, и налоги оплачивать. Все отчёты в срок сдают.

    НЕЗАВИСИМО ОТ ВСЕХ ПОЛИЦЕЙСКИХ НАБЕГОВ, ПК ВЫЖИЛ, ВСЕ РАБОТАЮТ И ПРОДОЛЖАЮТ БОРОТЬСЯ.
    БЕСПРЕЦЕНДЕТНОЕ ОБСТОЯТЕЛЬСТВО.

    Ну что за несговорчивое руководство...С такими "каши не сваришь"

    Значит надо сменить руководство. Но как, если оно законно избранное? Только переизбрать!
    Кто может убедить 20 тысяч человек переизбрать руководство, которое в таких обстоятельствах действует в интересах пайщиков? Но, если подумать, то можно сделать хитрее. Чтобы люди даже и не знали. Надо лишить их права голоса и передать кому-то другому. Можно же это сделать по доверенности.

    Например, под благовидным предлогом запросить у людей доверенности на представление их интересов в суде, но включить пункт о праве голосовать и принимать финансовые решения за этих людей. И всё-дело в шляпе.
    Осталось только найти того, кто может получить такие доверенности и посулить ему что-нибудь. Например, кресло председателя. Или шантажом и запугиванием.
    Это одна из версий резкой смены Георгием политики ранее так горячо отстаиваемой (По нашей версии – это или внезапно состоявшееся сотрудничество с врагами ПК, или же еще вначале задуманный хитрый план. Скорее всего-первое. Потому что у него самого – кишка тонка… Хотя может недооцениваем )

    И тут небольшой экскурс. Доверенности, с таким ажиотажем запрашиваемые у доверчивых пайщиков, в суде первой инстанции почему- то не пригодились. Георгий просидел на скамейке в углу тихонечко, никому не мешая. Ходатайства об участии пайщиков так и не заявил … Активного желания участвовать не проявил. А вот когда доверенности собирал, заявлял так: «имея такое количество доверенностей, я смогу дверь с ноги открыть в суд» (запись имеется). Не открыл. Зачем обещал?

    Стоять! Госпошлина!

    Ещё один повод задуматься об озвученных противоречиях. Нужна доверенность на представление интересов в первой инстанции, в апелляции, но подавать жалобы не надо, так как госпошлина есть. А деньги пайщиков нужно беречь.
    То есть 7000 ? за юридическую консультацию у него - это необходимые траты. А 3000? госпошлина на защиту своих интересов в суде, по подготовленному проекту жалобы и подробной инструкцией - это неразумно
    Вы правда так думаете, что судебный документ, который обезопасит и квартиру, и деньги пайщика - это лишний шаг и неразумные траты?
    А доверенность разве освобождает от оплаты госпошлины? Получаются двойные расходы. Доверенность плюс госпошлина. Так для чего нужна доверенность на самом деле? Может это абзац в доверенности о представлении в судах лишь прикрытие? А ещё можно "случайно" пропустить срок подачи апелляционной жалобы. Если люди доверили ее подачу другому "нужному человеку". А если не обжаловали, значит согласны с решением.

    Платите на счет

    Продолжается настойчивая рекомендация все платежи вносить на счета кооператива. С пояснением, что ареста на счетах нет. И налоги можно оплатить со счета.

    Но мы уже неоднократно убеждались, что воспользоваться счетами не дадут, пока не пройдет апелляция.
    К тому же, у банков свой начальник - Центробанк. Банки могут отказаться обслуживать "незаконную" организацию. А неоплаченный налог влечет арест счетов и квартир.
    При том, что есть отработанный механизм оплаты через гос.услуги. Стоит ли рисковать? Кому выгодно, чтобы заблокированных денег на счетах ПК становилось больше?

    "Адвокаты не ведают, что творят. Только я могу все исправить"

    В эфирах Моисеева начала транслироваться идея о том, что адвокаты ни на шаг не продвинулись. Никакого толка от них нет. Все суды проигрывают. Некоторые факты о достижениях адвокатов:
    отказ в иске ФНС о признании кооператива банкротом;
    снятие ареста со всех квартир ПК;
    снятие ареста со вновь поступающих средств;
    изменение меры пресечения на домашний арест для троих наших девочек.

    Список будем продолжать …

    И рассмотрим, какие достижения у нашего "спасателя":

    помогал пайщикам оформлять право собственности на квартиру после полной выплаты пая. Упустим вопрос о том, сколько стоили эти услуги помощника в комплексе с цессией. Лишь обратим внимание на то что: образец искового заявления предоставлял кооператив. Отзыв для суда готовил кооператив. Положительную судебную практику прикладывал кооператив. Разъяснения, комментарии, инструкции, персональная помощь в заполнении - все это делалось силами кооператива. И все это бесплатно. А потом ещё кооператив добился от Росреестра, чтобы аресты с квартир сняли на основании полученного адвокатами кооператива Постановления.
    Ай яй яй … Кажется, кто-то потерял весомую часть заработка И, кажется, кому-то было бы на руку новое наложение ареста на квартиры. Например, из-за невозможности оплатить налоги.
    иски об административном правонарушении - ни одного выигранного.
    порядка 60 выигранных дел "о неосновательном обогащении" в разных инстанциях.
    Этим он действительно очень помог многим людям. И сложилась устойчивая судебная практика по этому вопросу. Это бесспорная помощь людям.
    Только к кооперативу это не имеет никакого отношения!
    И поймите, что это 60 одинаковых гражданских дел. Когда нашел путь, как выигрывать, потом остаётся только фамилии в отзывах менять. И действовать по шаблону. Тем более, что противоположная сторона подаёт такие же шаблонные иски.
    И известны имена других юристов –честных и порядочных, занимающихся такими же делами, и не кричащих из каждого утюга, что они незаменимы и срочно нужно избрать их Председателями всея кооперативов.
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  • MiguelSault

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    Amazing adventures, extraordinary landscapes and fabulous cuisine — the world’s greatest railway journeys are an unforgettable experience that can immerse you in the culture of a new country.

    Demand for luxury “land cruise” trains with five-star hotel-style accommodation is booming. 2025 will see several new trains take to the rails for the first time, offering new opportunities to explore Italy, France, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.

    But the best railway journeys don’t have to be the most expensive. There’s an ever-evolving world of train trips out there. Here are some of the key developments in the coming year
    Two of Europe’s great capitals are now linked by their first direct high-speed train connection. Germany’s Deutsche Bahn introduced a daytime InterCity Express (ICE) service between Paris and Berlin on December 16 and is planning to add a second route between the two capitals in 2026.

    Taking advantage of its new fleet of 200 mph (322 kph) ICE3neo trains, the once-a-day service takes around eight hours in each direction, also serving Strasbourg, Karlsruhe and Frankfurt on its 546-mile (878-kilometer) journey.

    Fares start from around $60, and each train has capacity for 444 passengers, of which 111 can enjoy the additional comfort of leather seats and at-seat refreshments in first class.

    The new high-speed ICE service is the first direct daytime train between Paris and Berlin since the 1990s and complements the Nightjet sleeper service introduced in 2023.

    It may not be as fast as flying — some of the journey has to use lower speed “classic” lines to bridge gaps in the European high-speed network — but it is undoubtedly a more sustainable and more stylish way to travel across Europe.

    2025年1月5日
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  • DonaldEnhat

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
    CNN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    “Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

    2025年1月8日
  • WilbertMurne

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
    CNN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    “Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

    2025年1月8日
  • DannyseN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
    CNN

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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    The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

    But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

    The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

    That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

    Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

    Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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    Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

    “Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

    Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

    As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

    The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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    “Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

    2025年1月9日
  • TommyNeike

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月10日
  • EugeneWramb

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月11日
  • DonaldWox

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月11日
  • DannyRew

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月11日
  • JeremyVeS

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月11日
  • Rogerhax

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月11日
  • Bryannaf

    New Glenn’s first flight
    Blue Origin formally announced the development of New Glenn — which aims to outpower SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets and haul spacecraft up to 45 metric tons (99,200 pounds) to orbit — in 2016.
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    The vehicle is long overdue, as the company previously targeted 2020 for its first launch.

    Delays, however, are common in the aerospace industry. And the debut flight of a new vehicle is almost always significantly behind schedule.

    Rocket companies also typically take a conservative approach to the first liftoff, launching dummy payloads such as hunks of metal or, as was the case with SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy debut in 2018, an old cherry red sports car.
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    Blue Origin has also branded itself as a company that aims to take a slow, diligent approach to rocket development that doesn’t “cut any corners,” according to Bezos, who founded Blue Origin and funds the company.

    The company’s mascot is a tortoise, paying homage to “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable that made the “slow and steady wins the race” mantra a childhood staple.

    “We believe slow is smooth and smooth is fast,” Bezos said in 2016. Those comments could be seen as an attempt to position Blue Origin as the anti-SpaceX, which is known to embrace speed and trial-and-error over slow, meticulous development processes.
    But SpaceX has certainly won the race to orbit. The company’s first orbital rocket, the Falcon 1, made a successful launch in September 2008. The company has deployed hundreds of missions to orbit since then.

    And while SpaceX routinely destroys rockets during test flights as it begins developing a new rocket, the company has a solid track record for operational missions. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, for example, has experienced two in-flight failures and one launchpad explosion but no catastrophic events during human missions.

    2025年1月11日
  • HarryCib

    Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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    First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

    For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

    The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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    Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

    And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

    Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

    Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
    Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

    His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

    2025年1月11日
  • StacyReers

    Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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    A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

    These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

    “Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
    Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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    “While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

    Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

    “South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
    “This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

    The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

    2025年1月11日
  • Mosesjek

    The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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    Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

    The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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    The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

    So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

    In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

    Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
    But does that still hold true in 2024?

    According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

    “There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

    “If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

    Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

    2025年1月11日
  • Ernesther

    On a long-dormant pad in Florida, a rocket that could challenge SpaceX’s dominance is poised to launch
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    On a Florida launchpad that has been dormant for almost two decades, a new, roughly 320-foot (98-meter) rocket — developed by Jeff Bezos’ company Blue Origin — is poised for its maiden flight.

    The uncrewed launch vehicle, called New Glenn, will mark Blue Origin’s first attempt to send a rocket to orbit, a feat necessary if the company hopes to chip away at SpaceX’s long-held dominance in the industry.

    New Glenn is set to lift off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station as early as next week.
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    The rocket, which stands about as tall as a 30-story building, consists of several parts: The first-stage rocket booster gives the initial thrust at liftoff. Atop the booster is an upper rocket stage that includes a cargo bay protected by a nose cone that will house experimental technology for this mission.

    And, in an attempt to replicate the success that SpaceX has found reusing rocket boosters over the past decade, Blue Origin will also aim to guide New Glenn’s first-stage rocket booster back to a safe landing on a seafaring platform — named Jacklyn for Bezos’ mother — minutes after takeoff.

    Like SpaceX, Blue Origin will seek to recover, refurbish and reuse first-stage rocket boosters to drive down costs.

    For this inaugural mission, a smooth flight is not guaranteed.

    But the eventual success of New Glenn, named after storied NASA astronaut John Glenn, is instrumental to some of Blue Origin’s most ambitious goals.

    The rocket could one day power national security launches, haul Amazon internet satellites to space and even help in the construction of a space station that Blue Origin is developing with commercial partners.

    2025年1月11日
  • HermanpussY

    A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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    At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

    As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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    Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

    Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

    The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
    But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

    And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

    Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

    It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

    2025年1月11日
  • PedroBax

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月11日
  • Joshuahek

    What New Glenn will do
    In some ways, New Glenn has already made its mark on the launch industry. Blue Origin has for years pitched the rocket to compete with both SpaceX and United Launch Alliance — a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that buys engines from Blue Origin — for lucrative military launch contracts.
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    The US Space Force selected Blue Origin, ULA and SpaceX in June to compete for $5.6 billion worth of Pentagon contracts for national security missions slated to launch over the next four years.
    Blue Origin also has deals with several commercial companies to launch satellites. The contracts include plans to help deploy Amazon’s Kuiper internet satellites and a recently inked deal with AST SpaceMobile to help launch the Midland, Texas-based company’s space-based cellular broadband network.

    New Glenn could also be instrumental in building Blue Origin’s planned space station, called Orbital Reef. Blue Origin and it commercial partners, including Sierra Space and Boeing, among others, hope the station will one day provide a new destination for astronauts as the International Space Station is phased out of service.
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    New Glenn vs. other powerful rockets
    New Glenn packs significant power. Dubbed a “heavy-lift” vehicle, its capabilities lie between SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and the more powerful Falcon Heavy launch vehicle.

    SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9, for example, can haul up to 22.8 metric tons (50,265 pounds) to space. While New Glenn is capable of carrying about double that mass, it may also be roughly the same price as a Falcon 9: reportedly around $60 million to $70 million per launch.

    “I think in order to compete with Falcon 9, you have to go head-to-head or better on price,” said Caleb Henry, the director of research at Quilty Space, which provides data and analysis about the space sector.

    The question, however, is whether Blue Origin will be able to sustain a competitive price point, Henry added.

    Still, one feature that makes New Glenn stand out is its large payload fairing, or nose cone. The component protects the cargo bay and is a whopping 23 feet (7 meters) wide — nearly 6 feet (2 meters) larger than that of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

    Henry said Blue Origin likely opted to outfit New Glenn with such a large fairing in order to help fulfill Bezos’ vision of the future.

    2025年1月11日
  • WilliamDip

    What’s on board this flight
    Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

    But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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    The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

    The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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    Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
    Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

    “Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
    Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
    “It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

    If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

    2025年1月11日
  • PedroBax

    Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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    Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

    Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

    He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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    Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

    It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

    While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
    Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

    “This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

    2025年1月11日