随着美债收益率走高，新兴市场近期出现了数十亿美元的资本外流，这引发了人们的担忧，在这些新兴市场国家，新冠病毒感染仍然很高，经济强劲复苏的前景似乎很遥远。
发展中的国家3月份的资本外流为51.6亿美元。虽然资金外流规模不大，但这是美国推出1.9万亿美元经济支持计划以来新兴市场首次出现资金外流。该计划大幅提升了市场对美国经济增长的预期。经济学家预计，美国经济今年将增长6.5%， 虽然美国的高速增长基本上对全球经济有利，但也给一些经济较弱的国家带来了压力。
这些市场反应唤醒了人们对2013年所谓的“缩减恐慌” 美联储正在考虑放缓购买政府债券的行动，但实际上并没有宣布政策上的改变。在许多美联储观察人士看来，他只是在重复2013年1月首次表达的观点。但投资者受到惊吓，美国国债收益率大幅走高，在全球范围内引发冲击波，对新兴市场的影响尤为严重。
为了遏制2013年的资本外流，一些发展中经济体的央行不得不提高基准利率，从而放缓了它们的经济。如果它们今年被迫再次这样做，将使本已脆弱的从大流行影响中复苏的势头更加强劲。
3月份的资金外流是去年10月份以来的首次。当时，资金外流反映出投资者纷纷逃往安全港。相反，目前的资金外流是由美国国债收益率上升推动的，这是一个更令人担忧的趋势。
事实上，在过去一个月里，巴西和俄罗斯的央行都提高了利率，部分原因是为了防范资本外流，并支持本国货币。
国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔利娜•格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）最近表示，“美国经济更快复苏可能导致利率迅速上升，这可能导致金融环境急剧收紧，并导致新兴和发展中经济体出现大量资本外流。”
德国商业银行新兴市场资深经济学家周浩谈到事实上去年初疫情爆发后，美元伴随着风险偏好下降而走强，很多市场市场都出现了货币贬值和资本流入，彼时市场几乎是看空声一片。然而，随着美国疫情的恶化以及美联储的不断放松，新兴市场反而成为了资金的驻足地，并很快成为了投资热土。到了去年底，翻开任何一家大型机构的市场展望，几乎是一边倒地继续看好新兴市场。而到了眼下，关于新兴市场的乐观论调面临着相当程度的挑战。此外很多新兴市场虽然看起来很有潜力，但资产价格并不便宜，换言之，本身就存在的过度溢价一旦引来更多的资金，就会很快形成泡沫，而一旦资金流出，“杀估值“的压力会明显超过对于未来成长的预期。
随着经济学家们不断提高他们对经济增长和通货膨胀的预测，基准的10年期国债收益率目前在1.7%以上徘徊。相比之下，1月初的收益率约为0.9%。美联储进一步干预的门槛非常高，而其更有可能在当前政策未受影响的情况下保持观望，甚至开始暗示逐步退出，而不是更深入地涉足非常规领域。
“市场走势反映了基本面，美联储不会违背基本面。”
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