全球流动性周期逆转 投资者减持新兴市场股债资产

2021年04月13日 13442点热度 0人点赞 2,271条评论

 

全球流动性周期逆转 投资者减持新兴市场股债资产

  像土耳其等政治风险较高、南非等经济较弱的新兴市场经济体,在分析师看来,股票和债券吸引力不大 新华社图

 

伴随美国经济复苏、美国国债收益率上涨和美元走强,近期投资者纷纷开始减持新兴市场资产。尤其是撤出那些看起来不太强劲的新兴市场经济体。

一些分析师认为,全球流动性周期开始逆转,新兴市场资产将会面临巨大逆风因素。而新兴市场央行也已开始加息应对。

投资者撤出新兴市场

国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)的数据显示,今年2月和3月,新兴市场债券出现了自去年春季新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来最大规模的资金净流出,投资者在这两个月中每月撤出约30亿美元。IIF数据还显示,3月新兴市场的净流入资金估计为101亿美元,是2020年4月以来最低的月度数据。

其中,南非、印尼和印度发行的债券被抛售得最为严重。同时,在这两个月中,基金经理们还从新兴经济体的股市中撤出了6.7亿美元。

对一些新兴市场经济体国债的大量抛售,使得其国债收益率近期大幅飙升。上周,巴西10年期本币债券收益率从2020年底的6.96%一度跃升至9.65%,根据FactSet的数据,这是自2020年3月市场动荡以来的最高水平。俄罗斯和墨西哥的国债收益率近期也达到了一年来的最高水平。

此外,新兴市场近期股票和债券市场的资本外流还削弱了多种新兴市场货币。例如,巴西雷亚尔对美元今年至今已下跌约8%。

不少投资者表示,新兴市场已被美国经济增长前景改善所颠覆,因为经济复苏前景会带动美元走强并推高美国国债收益率,基金经理正押注美联储将加息以控制通胀。

资产管理公司骏利亨德森(Janus Henderson)的多资产团队负责人奥康奈尔(Paul O‘Connor)表示,新兴市场经济体目前面临的主要挑战之一是美国实际收益率(即扣除通胀因素后的国债回报率)的上升。以10年期通胀保值债券(TIPS)盈亏平衡通胀率来衡量,3月中旬,美国实际收益率已从去年12月31日的-1.089%攀升至-0.573%,上周稍微回落至-0.684%。

在此前较低的实际利率环境下,如新兴市场资产这类风险资产的表现会更为强劲。而更高的实际收益率,正促使投资者重新考虑他们持有新兴市场国债上的风险溢价是否值得。“如果你看看现在的新兴市场固收市场,就会发现它正遭遇巨大阻力。”奥康奈尔称,“新兴市场在疫情期间是赢家,因为当时美国经济脆弱,实际收益率大跌,随着实际收益率的回升,投资者轮换投资市场似乎是很自然的事。”他近期减持了新兴市场股票,对新兴市场债券持中立态度。

在分析师看来,另一个对新兴市场资产构成挑战的,是美元走强。衡量美元对一篮子货币汇率的美元指数今年来已上涨了2.3%。

百达资产管理公司(Pictet Asset Management)的多资产基金经理拉姆吉(Shaniel Ramjee)表示,美元走强使新兴经济体偿还外债的成本更高,并可能打压大宗商品价格,从而减少出口导向型新兴经济体的出口收入。这增加了这些经济体通胀上升的可能性。

“这是一个恶性循环。”拉姆吉透露,他最近减持了中国和巴西的股票,转而购买美国股票。

道明证券驻新加坡首席新兴市场亚洲和欧洲策略师Mitul Kotecha表示,美国收益率上升和美元走强,投资者要么转向更安全的资产要么锁定盈利,这显然正拖累新兴市场股票,短期内很难看到逆转,压力暂时会持续。

分析师还表示,像土耳其等政治风险较高、南非等经济较弱的新兴市场经济体,股票和债券看起来吸引力不大。此外,巴西和印度等新兴市场经济体仍在应对不断上升的新增病例和新的病毒变异,这可能会影响它们的复苏。

新兴市场加息应对,谨防美联储转向

“全球流动性周期开始逆转。”奥康奈尔称,美国经济情况复苏吸引资本撤出的情况迫使不少新兴经济体不顾国内经济疲软而提高利率。

比如,为了对抗本币贬值和通胀上升,并赢回外国投资者,巴西、俄罗斯和土耳其央行上个月均提高了利率。

摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P.Morgan Asset Management)的新兴市场债务专家帕普(Zsolt Papp)表示,借贷成本上升可能会抑制其中一些国家的经济复苏步伐。接下来,墨西哥央行也可能会采取加息措施来应对。

帕普称:“新兴市场央行更容易受到全球资本流动的影响,它们无法忽视这方面的情况。”

一些分析师还警示称,新兴市场需谨防美联储政策转向。

上周公布的3月会议纪要显示,美联储认为,要实现其最大就业和2%的通胀目标可能仍然需要一段时间,资产购买计划将继续维持目前的步调。美联储还一再重申在2023年之前都将把利率维持在历史低位。

但会议纪要公布后,密切跟踪利率预期的指标欧洲美元期货显示,市场预期美联储将在2022年底前启动加息,并在2024年初之前追加加息三次。

美银美林也预计美联储的宽松立场是不可持续的,担心美联储突然转向可能会冲击市场。该机构认为美联储将收紧政策的理由是:一、美国经济正在迅速恢复,非农就业以及ISM指数等经济数据都远强于预期;二、新冠疫苗接种速度也超过了预期。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称,美联储如果出人意料收紧政策,可能引发新兴市场利率升高和资本外流。IMF认为,如果发达经济体央行突然表示出对通胀风险的更大担忧,那么全世界可能看到金融状况突然收紧,类似于2013年的“缩减恐慌”。

基于此,IMF表示,为避免引发投资者对新兴市场的信心恶化,发达经济体的央行可以就不同情况下的未来货币政策提供清晰、透明的沟通。

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