印度正酝酿一场史上最疯狂的疫情爆炸?

2021年04月19日 9093点热度 0人点赞 1,789条评论

自新冠疫情爆发以来,印度疫情发展曲折离奇,屡次出现令人惊奇的谜之走势:

  印度日感染数从2020年9月28日近10万例的峰值快速下降到2021年2月28日的8697例,一度令全世界相信印度已成功控制疫情——为什么印度疫情一度突然好转?

然而,仅仅一个月后,印度疫情又开始以破纪录的速度和强度加快蔓延,继4月初单日确诊病例数突破10万例大关后,仅至4月15日就再度突破20万例,至4月17日单日新增确诊病例突破26万,再次刷新该国自疫情爆发以来的单日最高增幅纪录

印度在再次成为全球单日确诊数最高的国家的同时,也以逾1400万例取代巴西成为全球范围内确诊病例累计总数仅次于美国的国家——为什么印度疫情再次疯狂反弹?

印度正酝酿一场史上最疯狂的疫情爆炸?

印度每日新冠确诊人数变动情况(图/worldometers)

更令人担忧的是,在现有确诊病例中,病毒新变种占比逐渐提高,还出现多宗双重变异的毒株。

在1918年西班牙流感大流行中,当时还是英国殖民地的印度染病罹难者高达1000万人以上,是全球疫情最严重的国家。在当前危局下,印度是否会重蹈历史覆辙,再度成为全球最大和疫情最深重的单一疫区?

印度疫情此前为什么突然好转?

尽管印度当前正经受山呼海啸般的疫情,但仅仅一个月前,全世界都对印度疫情防控颇为乐观,甚至视其为全球发展中国家抗疫的模板之一。

从数据上看,印度单日确诊数达到2020年9月中旬近10万例的高峰后,便急剧下降,最低时下探到仅8000多例,2021年2月9日还出现单日零死亡病例。

以上数据似乎表明,比起欧美发达国家,物质条件更弱的印度反而能更好地控制疫情

印政府的数据,也得到国际社会的广泛认可,众多多边金融机构、投资银行、咨询机构、评级机构也将“印度已控制疫情”作为既成事实。

例如,国际货币基金组织(IMF)此前就将对印度2021-22财年预计增速从1月的11.5%,再度调高到12.5%;而评级机构穆迪(Moody)更估算出高达13.7%的财年经济增速。

对于印度疫情突然好转,目前并没有任何共识性的解释。

印度官方倾向于将疫情好转归功于严格的防疫措施。

印度卫生部门屡次表态强调,“印度人民严格遵守佩戴口罩的要求”和“卓有成效的封锁”是此前成功遏制疫情主因。

他们指出,印度政府在2020年9月疫情第一轮高峰期到来之前,就已实行了长达几个月的全国性封锁,即使在封锁解除后仍采取不少防疫措施,如强制要求佩戴口罩、保持社交距离、公共活动设置人数上限等。

除了志得意满的自吹自擂外,印度政府此种说法其实“满是槽点”:如果这些防控措施真的起到了决定性的实效,那为什么在感染基数较小、防疫措施最严的疫情初期,印度单日确诊数反而快速走高,而在防控措施大规模放松后却明显回落?显然,有其他因素在其中发挥作用。

不少学者指出,地理因素可能有助于印度控制疫情

例如,不少流行病学专家认为,由于印度城市化水平低下,约70%印度人居住在通风条件较好的农村地区且社交活动较少,因此降低了疫情传播效率。再如,还有专家认为,印度湿热的气候也有利于阻止病毒传播。

但这些说法同样充满破绽——因为人口稠密,印度农村地区聚集效应和城市相比并没有多少差距,而同样湿热、抗疫表现却非常糟糕的巴西和墨西哥等国则降低了地理因素的解释力。

也有专家认为,印度相对年轻的人口结构延缓了疫情传播。

根据最新人口普查数据,印度65%的人口年龄低于35岁,一半人口低于25岁。年轻群体普遍确诊率和死亡率较低,确诊症状也相对较轻。

但美国智库“疾病动态、经济与政策中心”(the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy)的研究显示,印度30岁至70岁年龄段人口染疫死亡率高于巴西、美国、中国相同年龄组,表明“人口结构降低死亡率”的说法远非确切。

此外,还有专家将印度疫情好转归功于群体免疫

阿育王大学专家认为,当印度感染总人数超过临界值,就会产生足够大的携带抗体的人群,由此形成群体免疫力。

全印范围的抗体检测血清学调查显示,2020年12月至2021年1月检出抗体阳性率接近22%,是2020年疫情高峰期的三倍多;在德里等地区,这一比例甚至超过50%。极高的抗体阳性可能推高群体免疫力,对大城市尤是如此。

然而,也有专家指出,即使部分地区已形成全体免疫,考虑到印度庞大的人口规模和复杂的国土环境,还很难真正达到全国性的群体免疫。

最后,还有为数众多的专家质疑印度政府数据的可靠性。

据美国《时代》杂志报道,一位流行病学专家估算,每30个印度感染病例中,平均仅有1人被确诊并记录在案,因此印度累计感染病例数可能是现有统计的30倍。

与此同时,印度检验率却还一度下降:2020年9月,印度单日检测量超过一百万次,而到2021年2月,单日检测量已降至60万至80万,这意味着更多病例可能未被发现。此外,为了早日恢复社会经济活动,地方政府在登记、报告确诊及死亡病例时也可能存在纰漏。

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    Two bombs were initially removed by the British Army, the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement. The parish council was then advised that a full survey of the area was required, according to a council spokesperson.
    Bomb disposal company Brimstone Site Investigation then uncovered 65 10-pound practice bombs and smoke cartridges on the first day of works, with a further 90 practice bombs recovered on the second day.

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    While not quite the bell-bottoms of decades past (the 1970s and the 2000s, specifically), the Compton-born rapper’s washed denim pants flared out at the knee and dragged beneath his heels along the stage at Caesars Superdrome in New Orleans. His silhouette stood in stark contrast to that of record producer Mustard, who made a brief cameo in a pair of outsized jeans straight from the West Coast hip-hop playbook.
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    But those suggesting his style was outdated, or gender-inappropriate, may not have been paying attention to the recent resurgence of flares — in both womenswear and menswear. After all, Lamar’s jeans were designed by one of the most influential figures in modern fashion, Celine’s former creative director Hedi Slimane, before he departed the French label in October.

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    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

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    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

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    Meanwhile, Pesto — a baby king penguin who was eating more fish than his parents by the time he was a few weeks old — is also an online celebrity, with human stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Katy Perry stopping by to meet him.

    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

    Admission tickets are only the beginning. Many zoos and aquariums offer special “behind the scenes” or “zookeeper for a day” packages at much higher prices. At Sea Life Melbourne, standard entry tickets for adults start at $51, while the Penguin Passport — which include a 45-minute tour of the birds’ area and a look at how their food is prepared — is $199.

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    Scores of unexploded bombs dating from World War II have been recovered from a children’s playground in northern England after a chance discovery.

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    Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.

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    An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.

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