
欧元(1.2038, 0.0000, 0.00%)触及三月以来高点 高盛、瑞信纷纷上调预期,预计欧洲央行不会改变立场
FX168财经报社(北美)讯 在连续第二周收涨后,欧元/美元周一(4月19日)依然保持看多势头,并升至3月初以来的最高水平1.2048,之后进入盘整阶段。目前上涨0.45%,至1.20355。
欧盟统计局公布的数据显示,2月份建筑业产出下降了2.1%,而分析师的预测是增长0.2%,但并没有引起明显的市场反应。
与此同时,因美国国债收益率下跌而加剧的美元抛售在周一保持不变,美元指数(91.0902, -0.0030, -0.00%)跌至近七周以来的最低水平91.03。然而,随着基准的10年期美国国债收益率出现反弹,并随后上涨逾1%,美元指数跌幅有限。
本周晚些时候,市场将密切关注欧洲央行的政策声明。巴克莱研究(Barclays Research)讨论了对本周周四欧洲央行政策会议的预期。该行预计欧洲理事会不会改变其货币政策立场,将重申维持有利融资条件的决心,但不会就框架提供更多细节。量化宽松政策将在年底前宣布。因此,这次会议不会改变货币政策立场,也不会使政策框架更加清晰。
而瑞士信贷分析师认为,欧元/美元可能继续走高,日收盘价将突破1.2027,目标是3月高点和2021年下跌的61.8%斐波那额回撤位1.2103/13。如果回落至1.1992以下,然后明显跌破1.1950-46的支撑位,将迅速降低回落至1.1928-23,然后是1.1883。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)也上调了欧元/美元的预估,暗示近期内欧元将进一步升值。高盛将其三个月目标价从1.21调高至1.25,持稳其12个月预估为1.28。以全球外汇、利率和新兴市场策略联席主管扎克·潘德尔(Zach Pandl)为首的分析师还发布了新的欧元多头交易建议,目标价为1.25,止损价为1.175。他们表示:“在疫苗接种速度加快和新冠肺炎住院人数下降的情况下,未来几个月,市场对欧洲增长的预期应会改善。”到目前为止,欧洲的疫苗接种计划落后于其他一些发达国家,但预计到夏季会加速。高盛分析师在报告中称,“我们认为,欧元区增长预期上升、该地区股市回报强劲、欧洲央行初步发出的正常化信号,以及美联储趋稳等因素,将延长近期欧元走高的趋势。”他们补充称,欧元交易的主要风险将是美联储官员出人意料的强硬表态,尤其是有迹象显示美联储6月(9月)经济预测总结将显示2023年加息。潘德尔补充称:“就美元整体而言,目前市场争论的焦点在于,第一季(第一季)的强势是否反映了拜登财政议程带来的美国持续的强劲表现,还是反映了美国提前接种疫苗的时间表和美联储的重新定价。”“我们认为是后者,所以随着其他国家加快接种疫苗,美联储稳定下来,美元可能再次走低。”

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