黄金交易提醒:印度疫情连创纪录 多头期盼美联储决议“助攻”

2021年04月27日 12951点热度 0人点赞 2,691条评论

黄金交易提醒:印度疫情连创纪录 多头期盼美联储决议“助攻”

周二(4月27日)亚洲时段,现货黄金小幅下跌,交投于1774附近,周一(4月26日)金价上涨0.24%,主要受到美国经济数据不及预期的提振,印度疫情的激增也令部分资金寻求黄金投资来避险。不过比特币和股市的强劲限制了黄金多头的涨势。周一美元与美债收益率波动不大。短线金价需突破上方38.2%回撤位1784的压力才有望进一步挑战1800一线,下方若跌破3月底以来的上行趋势线则涨势可能遭到破坏。

日内重点关注日本央行利率决议及美国4月谘商会消费者信心。

基本面利多

美国耐用品订单量增长弱于预期

美国商务部周一公布的数据显示,

3月份耐用品订单增加0.5% ,2月份修正后为减少0.9%。不含运输设备的耐用品订单增长1.6%,符合预期。接受调查的经济学家预估中值为耐用品订单增加2.3%。

3月疲软的耐用品订单数据与其他更广泛的制造业数据坚挺表现形成鲜明对比。3月份商用飞机订单下降了近47%。

不过,报告显示,金属,机械,机动车辆和通讯设备的订单有所增加。随着经济更广泛开放、企业支出稳定以及被压抑的消费需求释放,未来几个月整体生产有望获得推动。

即便如此,产量的增长仍将受到持续的产能限制和供应短缺的挑战,这两个因素引发了原材料价格上涨。

数据公布后,黄金多头逐渐发力,金价迎来大幅上涨。

印度疫情峰值未到而疫苗供应告急

正当新一波新冠疫情肆虐之际,印度疫苗库存告急,加大了印度总理莫迪推行劳动人口疫苗接种计划的难度,也可能使这场全世界最严重的公共卫生危机持续得更久。

印度周一公布,过去24小时新增病例达创纪录的352991例,2812人死亡,而实际死亡人数可能高得多。

新德里疾病动态、经济与政策中心主任Ramanan Laxminarayan称,这种严峻的状况可能会持续一个月左右。

Laxminarayan周一对电视称:“最新的流行病学预测是,全国范围内再过两三周都不会达到峰值,现在所使用的预测是,峰值将可能是我们目前水平的三到四倍。”

美国总统拜登周日在推文中表示将提供帮助。美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文的发言人Emily Horne在声明中称,印度生产的阿斯利康疫苗所需要的成分已经确定并将“立即提供”。

印度疫情导致市场产生一定的恐慌情绪,部分避险资金将流向金市。

 基本面利空

  比特币暴涨10%

比特币盘中最高上涨12%,至53000美元以上,创下2月初以来的最大单日涨幅。

Coindesk援引不具名消息人士的话报道称,摩根大通准备最早今年夏季向部分客户推出一款主动管理型比特币基金。此前两周比特币一路下跌,甚至击穿100日均线,华尔街就技术面发出看跌警告,并担心加密货币泡沫会加剧。

盛宝银行首席投资官Steen Jakobsen在一份报告中写道,“上周的大跌未能延续,这让加密货币多头松了一口气,不过要完全抵消近期的跌势,还有相当长的一段路要走。”

比特币号称“数字黄金”,在避险领域与黄金分庭抗礼。作为黄金强大的竞争对手,它的大涨将影响到流向避险黄金的资金量。

标普盘中创新高周一道指跌0.18%,标普500涨0.18%,纳指涨0.87%,标普盘中再创新高,纳指离记录高位也只有一步之遥。

股市不断刷新记录对市场风险情绪有很大提振作用,股市上涨一般利空避险黄金。

数据前瞻

周二重点关注日本央行利率决议及美国4月谘商会消费者信心指数。

日本央行料将在周二维持货币刺激政策不变,在日本再度宣布紧急状态令后,该行的经济预期可能成为主要关注点。

调查的所有44位经济学家均预计,日本央行行长黑田东彦及政策委员会将会在为期两天的会议结束后维持当前利率和资产购买政策设置,他们会评估上月政策调整的影响。

日本从上周日起对东京,大阪和另外两个县宣布进入疫情防控紧急状态

,这令央行在季度展望报告中评估经济走向的工作复杂化。

在宣布紧急状态令之前,知情人士称,日本央行官员认为美国和中国经济的强劲复苏将会使依赖出口的日本经济得到提振,他们认为有上调经济增长预期的空间。

美国3月份谘商会消费者信心指数达109.7点,较前月跳升19.3点,创下2020年3月疫后的最高点,

单月的跳升幅度也创下2003年4月以来最大。

美国民众对于未来几个月的经济复苏前景信心大增,尤其美国政府近期通过的1.9万亿美元纾困方案,让许多专家上调了今年美国的GDP增长率,刺激了消费者在未来六个月买房和采购汽车、家电用品的意愿。

市场预计4月数据将继续涨至113,这或将给美国市场更大的信心,并拖累金价下行。

周四凌晨将迎来美联储利率决议,尽管预计不会出现重大政策调整,但投资者将密切关注鲍威尔在会后记者会上的讲话。

鲍威尔料被问及,劳动力市场改善和新冠疫苗接种推进是否会促使其撤走宽松货币政策,但多数分析师预计,他会说这种讨论为时过早,这将给美国国债收益率和美元造成下行压力。

德国商银分析师Carsten Fritsch表示,如果鲍威尔这回新闻发布会上再次低调应对最新通胀上升这一点,黄金可能会受益,因为这将印证美联储准备接受经济过热的说法,以及甘冒落后曲线的风险。

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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
    “We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
    He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
    “You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
    The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
    The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
    At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
    Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
    “You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
    “The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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  • PhiliproW

    The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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    Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.

    This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.

    Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.

    “It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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    Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.

    Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.

    Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three ­– were represented on the list.

    2024年9月15日
  • RobertCop

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    Hyundai and General Motors (GM) have agreed to look for ways to work together on developing new vehicles, supply chains and technologies in an effort to cut costs and move more quickly.

    Global carmakers are under intense pressure to come up with new electric vehicle (EV) and battery technology because they face vehicle emissions regulations around the world. Those research and development efforts could cost tens of billions of dollars.

    They’re also facing an onslaught of potential competition from Chinese automakers, particularly EV producers, trying to export their lower-cost models overseas in order to escape a huge oversupply problem at home.
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    South Korea’s Hyundai and America’s GM (GM) said on Thursday they would collaborate on joint product development, manufacturing and future clean energy technologies. They plan to work together on internal combustion, clean-energy, electric and hydrogen vehicles.

    The non-binding framework agreement was signed by Hyundai Motor Executive Chair Euisun Chung and GM Chair and CEO Mary Barra.

    “Our goal is to unlock the scale and creativity of both companies to deliver even more competitive vehicles to customers faster and more efficiently,” Barra said in the statement.

    Including its affiliate Kia, Hyundai Motor is the world’s third-largest automaker by sales, according to Reuters, while GM is currently America’s largest carmaker, having retaken that title from Toyota (TM) in 2022.

    “This partnership will enable Hyundai Motor and GM to evaluate opportunities to enhance competitiveness in key markets and vehicle segments, as well as drive cost efficiencies and provide stronger customer value,” Chung said in the statement.

    Carmakers are increasingly sealing partnerships as a way of becoming more competitive in a cut-throat industry driven by price wars.

    Last year, Nissan and Renault finalized the terms of their revamped alliance, which will focus on developing EVs. GM and Honda (HMC), along with Cruise — GM’s autonomous driving subsidiary — have agreed to create a driverless ride-hailing company in Japan.

    2024年9月16日
  • HaroldFag

    Scientists who discovered mammals can breathe through their anuses receive Ig Nobel prize
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    The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.

    We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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    The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”

    In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

    2024年9月16日
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    The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.

    We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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    The awards – which have no affiliation to the Nobel Prizes – aim to “celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative – and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology” by making “people laugh, then think.”

    In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

    2024年9月16日
  • BruceBak

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    It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.

    Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.

    Now they have an answer, according to a new study in the journal Science, and it provides yet another warning that the Arctic is entering “uncharted waters” as humans push global temperatures ever upwards.
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    Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.

    It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.

    He was baffled, it was “completely unprecedented,” he said.
    Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.

    The result was a nearly year-long collaboration between 68 scientists across 15 countries, who combed through seismic, satellite and on-the-ground data, as well as simulations of tsunami waves to solve the puzzle.

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  • DavidMob

    The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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    Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.

    This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.

    Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.

    “It’s inspiring to be recognized for this 30 years into my career, especially in Naples where pizza originated,” Mangieri said in an email to CNN Travel on Thursday.
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    Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.

    Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.

    Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three ­– were represented on the list.

    2024年9月17日
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