过于鹰派”!?英国央行上调经济预期、预计“提前升息”

2021年05月07日 11649点热度 0人点赞 1,934条评论

过于鹰派”!?英国央行上调经济预期、预计“提前升息”

在疫苗接种进展良好,经济复苏势头抬升之际,投资者预期全球主要央行将开始释放收回超级宽松措施的信号…… 4月,加拿大央行缩减了10亿加元资产购买规模,将预计加息时间从2023年提前至2022年下半年,今天英国央行也“过于鹰派”:

CNBC报道指出,英国央行周四表示,英国经济正步入比此前预期更强劲的经济复苏,这得益于该国相对较快的Covid-19疫苗接种活动。

英国央行将全球第五大经济体的2021年增长预期上调至7.25%,略高于分析师的预期,高于2月份预测的5%。在此之前,英国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)下降1.5%,低于预期,同时由于对经济活动的限制放松以及英国冠状病毒感染持续下降。

英国央行表示,考虑到事态发展,第二季度国内生产总值(GDP)可能会“大幅上升”,而经济产出预计将在今年剩余时间恢复到流感爆发前的水平。该机构此前曾表示,英国经济将在明年第一季度恢复到流感爆发前的水平。

英国经济在2020年收缩了10%,这是三个多世纪以来最糟糕的年度表现。与大多数其他欧洲经济体相比,疫情更为严重,部分原因是实施严格的公共卫生措施以遏制冠状病毒传播的行动较慢。

英国央行货币政策委员会周四投票一致同意维持利率不变,并以8比1的投票结果支持将量化宽松计划维持在当前水平。

英国央行首席经济学家霍尔丹(Andrew Haldane)投票反对这一提议,他更倾向于降低购债计划的规模。

这意味着央行的主要贷款利率保持在0.1%的历史最低水平,资产购买的目标存量保持在8950亿英镑(1.39030.00180.13%)不变。英国央行表示,购买政府债券的步伐“现在可能会有所放缓”,但警告称,这是去年11月宣布该计划时“设想的”。

“购债方案的预期完成点保持不变。这一操作决定不应被解读为货币政策立场的改变,”英国央行在报告中表示。

在通胀方面,英国央行表示,预计消费者价格指数(cpi)将在今年年底前暂时升至2%的目标上方,主要受大宗商品价格发展的推动。它预计通胀将在中期回到2%左右。

“过于鹰派”

英国央行做出更乐观的经济预测之际,英国正逐渐走出封锁,越来越多的人接种了Covid-19疫苗。

政府的最新数据显示,到目前为止,英国已经注射了超过5060万剂Covid - 19疫苗,其中首次注射了近3500万剂,第二次注射了1580万剂。

在宣布这一消息之前,德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师们表示,他们预计,对于德意志银行是否决定缩减资产购买步伐,将是一个“非常惊险的决定”。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)资深英国经济学家Sanjay Raja在一份研究报告中表示,央行极有可能在6月的会议上做出缩减的决定,并补充称,这将与6月21日解除社会限制“非常吻合”。

巴克莱银行(Barclays)首席英国经济学家Fabrice Montagne周四在CNBC的“欧洲街头标志”(Street Signs Europe)节目上表示,英国央行在上调经济前景前“已经是最乐观的央行之一”。

Montagne表示,英国央行2月预估位于共识区间的高端,上调预估现在“有可能听起来过于鹰派,并可能要求提前升息。”

 

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    It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.

    Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.

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    Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.

    It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.

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    Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.

    The result was a nearly year-long collaboration between 68 scientists across 15 countries, who combed through seismic, satellite and on-the-ground data, as well as simulations of tsunami waves to solve the puzzle.

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    The world still holds many unanswered questions. But thanks to the efforts of the research teams awarded the IG Nobel Prize on Thursday, some of these questions – which you might not even have thought existed – now have answers.

    We now know that many mammals can breathe through their anuses, that there isn’t an equal probability that a coin will land on head or tails, that some real plants somehow imitate the shapes of neighboring fake plastic plants, that fake medicine which causes painful side-effects can be more effective than fake medicine without side-effects, and that many of the people famous for reaching lofty old ages lived in places that had bad record-keeping.
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    In a two-hour ceremony as quirky as the scientific achievements it was celebrating, audience members were welcomed to their seats by accordion music, before a safety briefing warned them not to “sit on anyone, unless you are a child,” not to “feed, chase or eat ducks” and to throw their paper airplane safely. There were two “paper airplane deluges” during the ceremony in which the audience attempted to throw their creations – safely – at a target in the middle of the stage.
    Among those collecting their prizes was a Japanese research team led by Ryo Okabe and Takanori Takebe who discovered that mammals can breathe through their anuses. They say in their paper that this potentially offers an alternative way of getting oxygen into critically ill patients if ventilator and artificial lung supplies run low, like they did during the Covid-19 pandemic.

    American psychologist B.F Skinner was posthumously awarded the peace prize for his work attempting to use pigeons to guide the flight path of missiles, while a European-wide research team was awarded the probability prize for conducting 350,757 experiments to demonstrate that a coin tends to land on the same side it started when it is flipped.

    2024年9月16日
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    It started with a melting glacier that set off a huge landslide, which triggered a 650-foot high mega-tsunami in Greenland last September. Then came something inexplicable: a mysterious vibration that shook the planet for nine days.

    Over the past year, dozens of scientists across the world have been trying to figure out what this signal was.

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    Some seismologists thought their instruments were broken when they started picking up vibrations through the ground back in September, said Stephen Hicks, a study co-author and a seismologist at University College London.

    It wasn’t the rich orchestra of high pitches and rumbles you might expect with an earthquake, but more of a monotonous hum, he told CNN. Earthquake signals tend to last for minutes; this one lasted for nine days.

    He was baffled, it was “completely unprecedented,” he said.
    Seismologists traced the signal to eastern Greenland, but couldn’t pin down a specific location. So they contacted colleagues in Denmark, who had received reports of a landslide-triggered tsunami in a remote part of the region called Dickson Fjord.

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    2024年9月16日
  • DavidMob

    The world’s best pizza for 2024 isn’t in Naples – or even in Italy. Here’s where it is …
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    Many New Yorkers will gladly tell anyone who’ll listen – and even those who won’t – about how they have the best pizza. And now they’ve got some mouth-watering new back-up for their long-standing culinary claims.

    This week, the Italy-based 50 Top Pizza Awards came out with its 2024 worldwide list, and a Lower East Side restaurant came out on top.

    Una Pizza Napoletana, opened by pizza maestro Anthony Mangieri in March 2022, not only beat out US competitors but also global ones. That includes pizzerias in Naples, Italy, the holy land for pizza aficionados and foodies in general.

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    Adding to their bragging rights, New Yorkers saw three other pizzerias make the 2024 list, which included 101 restaurants in total (despite the “50” in the name of the awards). The rankings for the other New York pizzerias were Ribalta at No. 19, Don Antonio at No. 30 and L’industrie Pizzeria at No. 80.

    Italy still managed to dominate the overall list with 41 eateries while the United States got a total of 15 places recognized. And Naples managed to best New York with five entries on the list, including a tie for the No. 2 spot with Diego Vigtaliano Pizzeria.

    Showing how truly global the awards are, nations not exactly known for their pizza scenes –South Korea, Bolivia and India, to name three ­– were represented on the list.

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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
    Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
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    Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
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    Почти три года назад кооператив «Бест Вей» был включен в предупредительный список ЦБ – с этого начались его злоключения. Становится все более очевидным, что это заказная акция, в которой Центробанк действовал в интересах банковской мафии, принимая решения, которые никто даже не потрудился подтвердить документами и фактами.
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    Во-вторых, актом осмотра официального сайта кооператива – в нем зафиксированы новости и структура личных кабинетов, больше ничего.
    То есть решение, заблокировавшее нормальную деятельность кооператива более чем на два года, приведшее к аресту его счетов, абсолютно ни на чем не основано. Вернее, основано на заказе мафии, стремящейся захватить кооператив и конкурентов, борющихся с кооперативом.
    При этом Центробанк рассказывает, что включение в список – это только информирование потенциальных потребителей финансовых услуг о рисках, но сам же себе противоречит, говоря, что именно ЦБ обратился в Роскомнадзор о блокировании информационных ресурсов кооператива, именно он обратился в прокуратуру и органы внутренних дел с предложением возбудить уголовное дело. И именно на основании письма его Северо-Западного главка уголовное дело начало расследоваться в том числе и в отношении кооператива. При этом за несколько лет расследования ни одного криминального эпизода не найдено: деятельность кооператива абсолютно юридически чиста.

    Ложь Набиуллиной
    По поводу судьбы кооператива «Бест Вей» и других кооперативов депутаты Государственной думы неоднократно обращались к руководству ЦБ, в том числе лично к Эльвире Набиуллиной. Они предлагали разобраться в ситуации, при необходимости ввести дополнительный контроль со стороны ЦБ, который снимет сомнения со стороны ведомства.
    Набиуллина в прошлом году публично пообещала на пленарном заседании Думы проработать вопрос кооперативов, совместно с депутатским корпусом выработать компромиссные предложения – но за более чем год ничего не сделано!
    Кооперация в России продолжает торпедироваться, а ведь это важнейший для экономического роста в стране сектор – способный аккумулировать миллиарды рублей (на счетах «Бест Вей» – более 4 млрд рублей!) и направить их в развитие экономики. Это важнейшее направление решения жилищного вопроса – альтернатива ипотеке, которая недоступна подавляющему большинству граждан и единственное, чему помогает, – это обогащению банков и мафии, стремящихся прибрать к рукам деньги граждан.

    Круговая порука
    Атаки центробанкиров на кооператив носят целенаправленный характер. Достоверно известно, что они велась с одобрения первого зампреда ЦБ Владимира Чистюхина – не говоря уже о бывшем и нынешнем руководителях Северо-Западного главка ЦБ Савинской и Петровой, бывшем директоре (упраздненного в прошлом году) Департамента противодействия недобросовестным практикам Валерии Ляхе, а также главе забравшего его функции Департамента небанковского кредитования Илье Кочеткове.
    Это не что иное, как круговая порука. В прошлом году к руководителю службы по защите прав потребителей и обеспечению доступности финансовых услуг ЦБ Михаилу Мамуте обратились по поводу очевидного нарушения законодательства – банки отказались исполнить судебное решение о снятии ареста со счетов кооператива (позднее арест был наложен снова). Мамута под мифическими предлогами отказался наказать банки.
    Очевидно, что происходит не что иное, как целенаправленное заказное преследование кооператива – в интересах неких сил, волю которых стремится исполнить Центробанк.
    Атаки, с одной стороны, в интересах банкиров, стремящихся установить ипотечную монополию и перекрыть кислород кооперации, а с другой – тайных кукловодов, стремящихся захватить более 4 млрд на счетах кооператива.
    Атака центробанкиров на кооператив должна быть вскрыта, расследована, виновные должны быть привлечены к ответственности!

    2024年10月1日
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