连破关口 人民币(6.3789, -0.0043, -0.07%)汇率重返6.30区间 企业需强化汇率风险中性意识
近两月离岸人民币对美元汇率走势
（截至北京时间5月26日21时）
人民币升值提速。5月26日，在岸、离岸人民币延续此前一日的上涨势头，双双再创三年新高。其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高触及6.3911，重回“6.30”时代；离岸人民币对美元汇率加大攻势，最高触及6.3806，收复6.39关口。
随着高点持续被突破，市场对于人民币的看多渐有升温之势。分析人士称，应理性看待人民币汇率波动。在当前背景下，汇率风险中性意识的重要性凸显，企业的“交易员”心态要不得。
人民币汇率重回“6.30”时代
5月26日，在岸人民币开盘后震荡拉升，大幅上涨近150点，盘中升破6.40关口，重回“6.30”时代；与此同时，离岸人民币震荡上扬，日内连破三道关，逼近6.38关口。
截至16时30分收盘，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率分别报6.3923、6.3847，日内涨幅分别为0.35%、0.69%。据统计，与4月低点相比较，在岸人民币已反弹超过1800点，离岸人民币汇率升值逾1900点。
人民币汇率强势拉升，背后有多重因素。受访专家表示，近一年以来，稳健的中国经济基本面和弱势美元是支撑人民币升值的最主要因素。
瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室表示，中国国际收支改善叠加美元弱势推动人民币走强。此外，资金加快流入中国股市，而美联储维持鸽派立场也对美元构成下行压力，人民币跟随走高。
最近两日A股市场成交活跃，股市氛围暖意渐浓。5月25日，沪深两市成交额站上万亿元，北向资金全天净买入217.23亿元，刷新单日净买入历史纪录。5月26日，北向资金全天净买入91.03亿元，依然处于高位。
“目前资本流入中国的动能较强。”恒生银行（中国）有限公司首席经济学家王丹对记者表示，外资流入中国的主要原因包括中国经济复苏强劲、利率水平较高、人民币资产吸引力凸显等。
汇率风险中性意识重要性凸显
人民币汇率不断升至高位，市场看多的力量随之壮大。业内人士提醒，市场应理性看待人民币汇率波动，人民币汇率不会单边上涨，而将在双向波动中延续强势。
中金公司最新研报称，人民币短期升值空间有限。随着美元震荡偏弱，人民币对美元汇率受其驱动将呈双向波动态势。此外，随着全球经济复苏不断深化，国外生产能力的恢复和进口价格的上升，预计今年经常账户顺差会低于2020年，经济增长动能可能有所放缓，需警惕人民币一定程度的回调风险。
外汇市场专家提醒，汇率波动之中，汇率风险中性意识亟待强化。尤其是深受汇率波动影响的外向型企业，应运用多种汇率风险管理工具，主动做好外汇风险防控。
平安证券首席经济学家钟正生认为，去年人民币升值令外向型企业承压。人民币汇率升值会削弱出口产品的价格竞争力，特别是对于受外需拉动较弱的下游劳动密集型行业来说，就意味着盈利能力的相应压缩。
在这一背景下，盲目押注人民币汇率无异于火中取栗。王丹表示，企业必须要放弃“交易员”心态，不要再把汇率波动作为盈利的手段。在高度不确定的外汇市场中，“汇率中性”将是最重要的原则，需要做好风险对冲。
人民银行近期发布的第一季度货币政策执行报告强调，加快发展外汇市场，引导企业和金融机构坚持“风险中性”理念，为基于实需原则的进出口企业提供汇率风险管理服务。
实际上，今年以来，随着人民币汇率双向波动加大，企业汇率风险管理意识已有所增强。4月份，银行代客结汇中，远期结汇履约占比为16.7%，较上年同期和历史均值分别高出3.9、4.3个百分点；银行代客售汇中，远期购汇履约占比为14.3%，环比提高2.0个百分点，较上年同期和历史均值分别提高5.5、2.3个百分点。
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