
基本面
美指
全球贸易情绪缓和,支撑美元反弹
受全球贸易不确定性缓解市场对担忧情绪影响,美元周一在亚洲市场走强。尽管此前关税引发市场对美元资产信心动摇,但本周即将公布的美国CPI和零售数据或将进一步决定美联储降息前景。
“有关美元失去全球储备货币地位的讨论言之尚早,一旦全球贸易局势更明朗,市场将回归正常交易节奏。”——Moomoo Australia首席执行官Michael McCarthy
市场将密切关注本周二即将公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI),以及周四的4月零售销售与就业数据,以判断贸易紧张对经济是否产生实质性影响。数据显示若继续强劲,可能支撑美联储维持鹰派立场。
“本周澳洲的就业数据也值得关注,但我认为贸易谈判仍将是决定市场走势的主导因素。”——Michael McCarthy补充道
黄金
亚洲投资者继续主导金市,4月份ETF需求飙升
世界黄金协会(WGC)表示,过去两年亚洲需求一直主导着实物黄金市场,现在这一趋势已延伸至纸黄金市场,因为对黄金ETF的需求超过了其他所有地区。
分析师表示:“亚洲主导了资金流入,占全球净额的65%,这是有记录以来最强劲的一个月。北美的需求也相当可观,而欧洲流量则出现负增长。”
从地区来看,上个月在亚洲上市的黄金ETF的持有量增加了69.6吨,价值73.1亿美元。
分析师表示:“大部分需求来自亚洲大国,连续第三个月资金流入,是该地区有记录以来最强劲的需求。与美国持续的贸易争端引发增长放缓的担忧,加剧了股市波动,加剧了本币贬值的预期,这些都促进了需求。”
原油
贸易利好助力油价创两周新高,紧盯三大关键信号
国际油价周一延续,布伦特原油和WTI原油双双创下近两周新高。市场情绪被中美贸易谈判的乐观信号点燃,但背后还隐藏着OPEC增产、美伊核谈判等关键变量,一场影响全球能源格局的风暴正在酝酿
分析师解读:“中美是全球最大的两个原油消费国,贸易摩擦一旦缓解,石油需求预期必然上调。”东京富士通证券分析师Toshitaka Tazawa表示,“但市场仍需警惕,如果后续协议细节不及预期,涨势可能很快逆转。”
但隐忧仍在:OPEC+即将在6月讨论增产计划,如果沙特等国决定放松产量限制,油价可能面临回调压力。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
上周五,因市场观望中美会谈,美元指数回软,一度低见100.08,最终收跌0.21%,报100.42。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.3890%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报3.9100%。
观点整理:
回顾上周五市场表现,在早盘期间价格短线先高位震荡,随后价格进行承压修正,从位置及时间看价格于美盘测试到四小时支撑位置,之后如期止步上行,虽然最终大阴收尾,但是整体后续关注日线及四小时支撑区域看上涨。从多周期分析,周线级别来看价格压制在102.80区域阻力,那么从中期视角出发,美元指数的走势将更偏向于空头。在日线级别上价格站上99.80位置,则整体按照波段多头看待,后续重点关注日线波段上涨后关注周线阻力得失。同时按照四小时级别看,价格在昨日依托四小时支撑进一步上涨,目前四小时支撑于100.30区域。短线一小时上美指目前短线有调整的表现,同时上周五收盘结合看,所以今日日内重点关注99.80-90区间支撑,待后续价格到位后再关注进一步上涨,上方后续关注100.80-101.30区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
因印巴关系在上周持续升温提振了避险情绪,现货黄金周五下破3280美元后持续反弹,最终收涨0.68%,报3326.46美元/盎司。因中方发布会指出,中美经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展,以及特朗普预告将发布最重要、最具影响力的内容之一,现货黄金周一低开41美元;周五,现货白银收涨0.98%,报32.72美元/盎司。
观点整理:
避险情绪缓和,市场风险偏好明显回暖,施压金价,短期维持收敛震荡,中期多头结构尚未改变,等待调整完成,继续关注美元指数以及全球贸易情绪的变化,技术层面留意指标是否止跌企稳
原油
市场行情整理:
上周五,由于美国正缓和与其他国家的贸易冲突,油价创下自4月中旬以来的首次周度上涨。WTI原油逼近61美元,最终收涨1.29%,报60.99美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.14%,报63.88美元/桶。
观点整理:
全球贸易情绪缓和,提振市场风险偏好,但OPEC+加快增产使得油价很难出现反转,短期的反弹受情绪影响,基本面继续关注供给端的变化,技术层面维持区间震荡,等待压力测试为主

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