
基本面
美指
市场风险偏好回暖,美元指数继续反弹
美国与亚洲大国就关税达成90天削减协议后,市场避险情绪缓解,美元大幅走强,兑日元与欧元分别录得2.1%和1.4%的显著升幅。市场对经济衰退的担忧暂时降温,推动美债收益率上涨、美联储降息预期回落
周一公布的协议宣布双方将暂停新一轮关税行动,为未来三个月的谈判争取时间,这一消息在全球金融市场引发“解脱式”反弹:纳斯达克指数上扬、美元飙升、全球风险资产普遍收高。
“这一协议减少了此前因高关税所导致的下行风险,美联储短期内的政策路径或将更为克制,”麦格理经济研究主管David Doyle表示。
黄金
机构预测到2026年第一季度金价将触及4000美元
WisdomTree的欧洲大宗商品和宏观经济研究主管Nitesh Shah表示,即使贸易争端最终得到解决,美国经济面临的主要风险是美联储的独立性,以及美国经济的信誉问题,随着全球金融市场继续面临重大的地缘政治和经济不确定性,贵金属也将保持其光彩。根据他的看涨建模,Shah预计到2026年第一季度,金价将达到每盎司4000美元。
WisdomTree的欧洲大宗商品和宏观经济研究主管Nitesh Shah表示,除了全球贸易的不确定性之外,他认为美国经济面临的下一个主要风险是美国的货币政策和美联储的独立性。
Shah表示,除了美联储的独立性,美国经济还面临严重的信誉问题。他指出,即使全球贸易战得到解决,美国作为可靠的贸易伙伴的声誉也受到了损害。
原油
全球贸易情绪缓和,油价冲高回落,维持箱体震荡
全球市场情绪转暖,原油价格周一上涨近1.5%,创下自4月28日以来新高。沙特阿美对需求前景持乐观态度,伊拉克出口预期下降也支撑油价。但分析人士指出,贸易矛盾仍未彻底解决,且OPEC增产风险依旧存在,令市场后续走向仍存不确定性。这一协议的达成被市场解读为贸易担忧情绪的阶段性缓解,促进了对全球经济稳定与原油需求回升的预期。
“尽管谈判仍具挑战性,但本轮关税削减幅度超出预期,提振了市场对未来局势的乐观看法,”荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师在报告中表示。
此外,美联储官员库格勒(Adriana Kugler)也指出,若贸易局势好转,或将减少美联储降息刺激经济的必要性。这一评论一度令市场担忧原油需求刺激措施减少,从而在盘中对油价形成短暂压力。
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理:
周一,因中美达成削减关税协议,缓解了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧,美元指数一度逼近102,最终收涨1.37%,报101.80。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.4740%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.0350%。
观点整理:
回顾周一市场表现,在早盘期间价格短线直接跳空高开,之后进行震荡后于欧盘再度发力,价格当日强势收盘在高位,后续关注进一步延续。从多周期分析,周线级别来看价格压制在102.90区域阻力,那么从中期视角出发,美元指数的走势将更偏向于空头。在日线级别上随着时间的推移价格关键支撑位置于100区域,所以后续波段看多。同时按照四小时级别看,价格在昨日依托四小时支撑进一步上涨,目前四小时支撑于100.00-10区域。同时按照短线一小时看昨日价格强势收盘在高位,则针对昨日回撤的低点位置101.30区域将成为关键支撑,后续关注此位置和四小时支撑进一步看上涨,保守者等待趋势线支撑多,激进者可以先于四小时支撑看上行,上方短线关注102.20-102.90区域。
黄金
市场行情整理:
受中美经贸会谈消息影响,现货黄金一度跌破3210美元/盎司,最终收跌2.73%,报3235.58美元/盎司。现货白银最终收跌0.43%,报32.58美元/盎司。
观点整理:
由于市场避险情绪降温,施压金价调整,但目前技术层面并未跌破区间支撑,维持在收敛震荡之中,中期上升趋势线并未跌破,美联储中期降息预期支撑金价,短期美元指数接近压力区间,黄金维持箱体对待。
原油
市场行情整理:
因中美以积极的态势结束贸易会谈,国际油价一度大涨3%,但OPEC的增产计划限制了涨幅。WTI原油最终收涨1.52%,报61.92美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.68%,报64.95美元/桶。
观点整理:
全球贸易情绪回暖,短期提振市场风险偏好,不过OPEC+增产依然限制油价涨幅,且尚未走出区间震荡,目前中期下降趋势尚未改变,继续关注库存数据的变化,维持区间震荡。

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