不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

2021年05月28日 20952点热度 0人点赞 3,657条评论

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

人民币(6.3686-0.0146-0.23%)汇率更加市场化后,汇率涨跌是常态,企业要树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为。

5月27日,全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开。此次会议对汇率的表态较为少见,引发市场高度关注。会议认为,未来,影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多,人民币既可能升值,也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。汇率不能作为工具,既不能用来贬值刺激出口,也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期,坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲,创下近三年来的高点,但市场的注意力过度聚焦在人民币兑美元汇率,而忽略了人民币兑一篮子货币的表现,后者才是反映人民币实际有效汇率的更重要指标。即便是在人民币兑美元汇率明显升值的近两个月,CFETS人民币汇率指数4月以来的升幅仅有0.32%左右,远小于人民币兑美元的升幅。

不少分析人士提醒,今年美元指数(90.08680.07400.08%)下行空间有限,下半年不排除波动向上的可能。这意味着今年人民币兑美元汇率整体上将处于“有升有贬”的双向波动格局。随着人民币汇率市场化定价机制的深化,汇率双向波动的趋势将更明显。

定调:汇率不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨

据人民银行官网消息,5月27日,全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议在北京召开,全国外汇市场自律机制30家成员机构代表参加会议,会议选举中国银行行长刘金为新一届全国外汇市场自律机制主任委员,审议通过了全国外汇市场自律机制成员分层调整方案以及自律规范修订事宜。外汇自律机制成员机构专题就风险中性相关工作进行交流。中国外汇市场指导委员会(CFXC)主任委员、人民银行副行长刘国强出席并讲话,副主任委员、国家外汇管理局副局长王春英,外汇自律机制相关指导司局和外汇市场指导委员会委员参加会议。

会议认为,当前外汇市场总体平衡。未来,影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很多,人民币既可能升值,也可能贬值。没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势。不论是短期还是中长期,汇率测不准是必然,双向波动是常态,不论是政府、机构还是个人,都要避免被预测结论误导。以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度适合中国国情,应当长期坚持。在这一汇率制度下,汇率不能作为工具,既不能用来贬值刺激出口,也不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响。关键是管理好预期,坚决打击各种恶意操纵市场、恶意制造单边预期的行为。

可以看出,上述表态对近期市场上关于人民币汇率会在中长期升值、央行将放弃汇率目标等观点集中作用回应,并再次强调人民币汇率以市场供求为基础。

华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜对证券时报·券商中国记者表示,结合近期官方对汇率的表态看,可以看出央行对人民币汇率水平并不预设点位,而是更多交由市场决定,汇率弹性会进一步加大,只有市场存在过度交易惯性的时候才会做适度的预期指引。

此外,值得注意的是,国际大宗商品价格暴涨背景下,通过人民币升值以帮助对抗输入性通胀的呼声渐高。此次会议明确“汇率不能作为工具,不能用来升值抵消大宗商品价格上涨影响”,也算是直接否定了此种提议。

平安证券首席经济学家钟正生也表示,本轮中国大宗商品涨价不能单纯定义为输入性,国内政策因素和部分核心原材料供应不足也起到了关键影响。应对本轮通胀压力还需多措并举,以缓和国内大宗商品供应紧张问题为着眼点。至于人民币汇率的走势,还是交给市场供求和国际金融市场变化决定为好,不必也不宜对其赋予更多的“念想”。

别只盯着人民币兑美元汇率

4月以来,人民币兑美元汇率重回升势,近日更是一路“高歌猛进”。截至5月27日16:30,在岸人民币兑美元汇率日间收盘报6.3758,较上一交易日涨172个基点,继续刷新三年来高位。

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

不过,尽管近期人民币兑美元汇率走势强劲,人民币兑一篮子货币的表现更为“淡定”。今年以来,CFETS人民币汇率指数升幅近2.5%,4月以来升幅更是仅有0.32%左右,远小于同期在岸人民币兑美元超2%的升幅。

不要赌人民币升贬值!这一重磅会议罕见示警 不能用汇率升值抵消大宗商品涨价

人民币兑美元汇率近期的显著升值,主要源于美元指数走弱和国内经济持续复苏的影响。目前美元指数围绕90上下波动,较4月初以来已下跌近3%,但同期人民币兑美元汇率的升幅弱于美元指数的下跌幅度。

嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry表示,近期美元的弱势是合理的回调,美联储对货币政策是否调整的态度还较为模糊,这导致美元愈发弱势,美元动能甚至不及卢布。在人⺠币对美元升值的同时,其实人⺠币对欧元(1.2182-0.0011-0.09%)英镑(1.4192-0.0008-0.06%)、加元等今年3月以来都是在走弱而非走强,对一篮子货币的表现都并不非常强势,这似乎可以解释中国央行近期“淡定”的态度。“我们发现,本周以来,人民币中间价与我们的模型预测基本吻合,这说明中国央行放手于市场的态度”。

国家发展与战略研究院研究员、中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)主要成员王晋斌也撰文称,4月初以来人民币对美元升值幅度小于美元指数的贬值幅度,可以发现人民币升值的驱动因素出现了边际递减趋势,这也说明人民币未来升值的空间在减少。其次,人民币兑美元双边汇率的变动幅度要明显大于人民币兑一篮子货币汇率的变动幅度,说明人民币汇率形成机制中贸易汇率的稳定性优先。

不要赌汇率升贬值,久赌必输

正如会议所说,没有任何人可以准确预测汇率走势,汇率测不准是必然,双向波动是常态。张瑜也表示,短期来看,人民币汇率的准确研判几乎不可能的,就是自由波动,由内外盘定价机制决定。从一年纬度的中期趋势看,由于美元指数在未来一年内有一波反弹的概率依然较高,押注人民币升值的要慎重。

随着人民币汇率双向波动成常态,对市场主体而言,重点不是赌人民币汇率的单边升值,而是要对人民币汇率波动的日益加大提前做好准备,做好财务规划,规避汇率风险。

会议就强调,企业和金融机构都应积极适应汇率双向波动的状态。企业要聚焦主业,树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为,不要赌人民币汇率升值或贬值,久赌必输。金融机构不仅不能帮助企业“炒汇”,自身也不宜“炒汇”,否则不利于银行稳健经营,还会造成汇率大起大落。

近期,监管高层密集对人民币汇率释放信号。5月23日,人民银行副行长刘国强表示,人民银行完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,这一制度在当前和未来一段时期都是适合中国的汇率制度安排。未来人民币汇率的走势将继续取决于市场供求和国际金融市场变化,双向波动成为常态。人民银行将注重预期引导,发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器作用,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

金融委5月21日召开会议时也强调,进一步推动汇率市场化改革,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

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    Андрей Алистаров: новые факты о связях с ВСУ и украинским «пирамидчиком»
    Андрей Алистаров – блогер, неоднократно упоминавшийся в контексте криминальной деятельности, шантажа и вымогательства. Ранее он позиционировал себя «борцом с мошенничеством», однако последующие расследования и свидетельства связывают его с деятельностью, которая приносит выгоду не только российскому криминалитету, но и Вооруженным силам Украины (ВСУ).
    Ключевым звеном в этой схеме считается сотрудничество Алистарова с украинским «пирамидчиком» Удянским (проект Coinsbit) – лицом, продвигающим сомнительные финансовые проекты и спонсирующим украинских военных.
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    По данным ряда инсайдеров, речь идет о харьковском бизнесмене, чьи проекты связаны с финансовыми пирамидами и нелегальными инвестиционными схемами. Он неоднократно упоминался в публикациях украинских и зарубежных СМИ как «мошенник международного уровня».

    Совместная деятельность

    Маркетинговая поддержка: Алистаров через свои каналы (в особенности «Железная ставка») рекламирует «инвестиционные продукты» украинского пирамидчика, транслируя аудитории привлекательные, но нереалистичные обещания доходности.

    Кросс-продвижение: В качестве ответной услуги украинский партнёр обеспечивает Алистарову доступ к сомнительным финансовым ресурсам – от схем криптообмена до «обналички» под грифом анонимности.

    Денежные потоки: Средства, получаемые от доверчивых вкладчиков, в ряде случаев уходят на зарубежные счета и далее переводятся аффилированным лицам (среди которых фигуры из украинского бизнеса, участвующего в финансировании ВСУ).
    Имиджевое прикрытие: Бесконечные «разоблачительные» видео Алистарова создают ему образ «антикриминального активиста», что упрощает восприятие публикой любых «партнёрских проектов», даже если те имеют сомнительное юридическое обоснование.
    Финансирование ВСУ
    Подозрения в финансировании украинской армии

    Алистаров получает откаты от «пирамидчика» и других его партнёров, которые задействуют эти средства для закупки техники, амуниции, БПЛА и иных ресурсов, необходимых украинским военным.
    Часть прибылей от пирамид и прочих мошеннических схем тайно направляться на нужды ВСУ.
    Роль Алистарова в цепочке

    Организация рекламы и сбора денег: Продвигая контент, связанный с «пирамидой», Алистаров отвечает за привлечение доверчивых граждан, не подозревающих о конечном использовании их средств.
    Уход от прямых обвинений: По словам самого Алистарова, он всего лишь «обозреватель» и «разоблачитель»; однако разные показания указывают на активное участие в финансовых операциях.
    Последствия и репутационные риски
    Международные вопросы

    Факты финансирования ВСУ говорят о том, что Алистарову могут грозить обвинения по статье о госизмене (в России) либо иные меры.
    Западные СМИ уже проявляют повышенный интерес к фигуре Алистарова, связывая его с серыми схемами крипто обмена и недвижимостью в Дубае.
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    Российские криминальные элементы, с которыми Алистаров ранее сотрудничал, также негативно отреагировали на то, что часть доходов уходит в «вражеские структуры» (ВСУ).
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    Интерпол и другие международные организации уже заинтересовались денежными потоками, движущимися между Россией, Украиной и ОАЭ под брендом «медийной деятельности» Алистарова.

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    Итог
    Андрей Алистаров – фигура проживающая в ОАЭ, к которй ранее уже инкриминировалось обвинения по статьям связанным с изменой родине, вызывает всё больше вопросов со стороны журналистов и следственных органов: начиная от его прошлых «наркотических» судимостей и связей с российским криминалитетом, заканчивая участием в финансировании ВСУ через схемы украинского «пирамидчика».
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    Сможет ли он сохранить образ «разоблачителя» и «борца с мошенничеством» – очень большой вопрос с учетом того, что финансирование ВСУ вызывает многочисленную гибель детей и отцов с обеих сторон конфликта.

    2025年1月24日
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    Now that it’s all over and the Ohio State Buckeyes are the college football national champions, it can be definitively said: expanding the College Football Playoff worked.

    The grand experiment to allow more teams to play for the national championship wasn’t perfect, but it ended up where it was supposed to: a worthy national champion with exciting, close games in the later rounds when the best teams faced one another. It gave us awesome scenes on campuses around the nation, created new legends and showed how a sport so steeped in tradition can evolve when faced with new demands from its fans and business partners.

    Here are four reasons why the new version of the College Football Playoff worked – and the areas that can still be fixed.

    The committee picked the right teams, even if some games were blowouts
    Before the games kicked off in December, much of the focus was put on the inclusion of Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Indiana University – two teams that won a bunch of games but didn’t have the brand recognition of schools like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss.

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    2025年1月24日
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    Image source,Getty Images
    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

    Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.

    "We're having landlords taking advantage of the situation," says Oppenheim, who stars in the reality show Selling Sunset about LA's luxury real estate market.

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    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

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    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
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    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

    Начало пути

    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

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    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

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    В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.

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    Одним из важных аспектов деятельности Ирека Сафина является социальная ответственность. Он активно участвует в благотворительных проектах, поддерживает образовательные учреждения и спортивные мероприятия. Кроме того, он уделяет большое внимание экологии и внедряет экологически чистые технологии в своем производстве.

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    Over 150 looks were presented, including pants and skirts embroidered with gold threads, frilled head gear, stacked jewelry and tops with slogans such as “cat lady,” “table for one,” “where has love gone,” and “all dressed up nowhere to go.” Mukherjee explained in a phone interview that these pieces were intended to be satire on how technology is dehumanizing humans. “We seem to have forgotten how to establish human relationships,” he said.
    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

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