中证报头版:连续回调 人民币汇率单边升值预期逐渐减弱

2021年06月04日 8489点热度 0人点赞 1,871条评论

中证报头版:连续回调 人民币汇率单边升值预期逐渐减弱

6月3日,人民币(6.40630.00250.04%)对美元汇率中间价报6.3811元,较前一交易日下调38点,为连续两日下调。在岸人民币对美元即期汇率先行贬破6.39元,连续三日贬值。鉴于境外上市中资企业购汇需求季节性上升和美元汇率走势存在较大变数,专家表示,目前,人民币汇率单边升值预期正趋于减弱。企业应树立“风险中性”理念,避免“炒汇”行为。

  市场汇率下调

中国人民银行5月31日宣布,自6月15日起,上调金融机构外汇存款准备金率2个百分点,即外汇存款准备金率由现行的5%提高到7%。中国证券报记者6月2日获悉,国家外汇管理局近日向17家机构发放合格境内机构投资者(QDII)额度103亿美元。

“上述举措体现了有关部门围绕保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的目标,采取增加汇率弹性、有序扩大金融市场双向开放的外汇政策组合拳思路。”中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛说,央行、外汇局大招频出,赌人民币汇率单边升贬值可休矣。

在这一背景下,人民币汇率继续展开“回归之旅”。6月3日日间交易时段,在岸、离岸人民币对美元即期汇率盘中接连失守6.38元、6.39元。在岸人民币16时30分收盘价报6.3932元,较前一交易日贬值60点,连续第三日贬值。离岸人民币汇率盘中震荡走低,截至17时,报6.3900元,贬值62点。

 阶段性调整压力料增大

专家表示,境外上市中资企业集中大额分红购汇及美元指数(90.56720.06670.07%)可能回升将助推人民币汇率贬值。

“6月和7月是传统分红购汇高峰期,在香港市场上市的中资企业将集中购汇。从已公布分红计划看,2021年在香港市场上市的中资企业分红购汇规模预计700亿美元,绝大部分集中在6月至8月。”兴业银行首席经济学家、华福证券首席经济学家鲁政委表示,人民币汇率调整的可能性上升,企业购汇节奏或前移。

从以往情况看,集中分红购汇会增加人民币汇率贬值压力。鲁政委举例说,即便在人民币汇率存在单边升值预期的2011年,6月至7月也出现了阶段性贬值,主要与境外上市中资企业集中分红购汇有关。再比如,2016年6月至7月人民币汇率贬值幅度也较大。

专家强调,受多重因素叠加影响,需警惕人民币汇率贬值风险。中欧国际工商学院教授、中国人民银行调查统计司原司长盛松成此前表示,近期人民币汇率升值过快,有可能已出现超调。

从美元走势来看,专家认为,美联储6月3日宣布将开始逐步出售所持公司债和投资于公司债交易所交易基金,以及美联储官员表示希望尽快展开缩减购债讨论,美元指数在前期低点附近获得有力支撑,不排除大幅回升的可能。

首创证券首席经济学家韦志超表示,人民币汇率进一步大幅升值可能性不大,中期走势仍将受美元指数变动影响。

 企业应树立风险中性理念

市场人士认为,汇率单边快速升值或贬值易造成企业放松主营业务,进行汇率套利,进而损害实体经济。日前召开的全国外汇市场自律机制第七次工作会议强调,企业和金融机构都应积极适应汇率双向波动的状态。企业要聚焦主业,树立“风险中性”理念,避免偏离风险中性的“炒汇”行为,不要赌人民币汇率升值或贬值,久赌必输。

多家企业近期表示已使用外汇套期保值工具对冲风险。有上市公司在投资者关系互动平台上表示,汇率波动对有进出口业务的公司会有影响,在人民币持续升值背景下,海外收入会有缩水现象,但公司进口采购业务会抵消部分影响。针对汇率波动,公司已经主动进行一些风险可控的外汇套期保值业务,在一定程度上可控制汇率波动风险。

另有上市公司表示,汇率波动会对公司利润产生一定影响,公司会根据汇率波动趋势使用外汇套期工具对冲风险。

国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英日前表示,外汇局将继续加强企业汇率风险管理宣传培训和辅导。加大外汇市场政策供给。在深化外汇市场建设方面,不断丰富交易工具,完善交易机制,提升外汇市场的透明度,增强交易便利性,更好地满足市场主体风险管理的需求。上交所产品创新中心副总经理陈代云此前表示,上交所对ETF市场的定位是“ETF让投资更加便捷”。上交所ETF市场发展呈现规模持续增长,流动性亚洲最佳,投资者人数大幅提升,产品和机制创新方面不断取得突破,ETF产品线进一步丰富。

挖掘新投资机会

平安基金ETF指数投资部总监成钧表示,甄别哪些公司能基业长青是比较困难的,因此分散化投资是客观存在的迫切需求,指数投资解决了选股难、选基难的问题。

鹏华基金副总裁高鹏说,鹏华基金多年来一直在积极探索布局各类被动指数产品,截至2020年底管理的权益类ETF规模近70亿元,今后将在行业主题方向上继续探索,积极挖掘新的投资机会和方向。

王乐乐认为,从长期投资角度看,可在优质赛道里按照节奏布局。投资者在投资过程中,需要关注“盈亏比”。创金合信基金首席量化投资官、创金合信沪深300指数增强基金经理董梁说,近两三年来,随着外资和内地机构投资者持仓市值加大,话语权变强,A股投资生态逐渐转向价值投资。

“在市场演进过程中虽有风格异动,但整体不改资金向头部公司集中的趋势。因此,聚焦上证50、沪深300、中证500的宽基指数产品,值得重点关注。”董梁说。

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  • ElijahHal

    Blogger Alistarov Goes All Out

    From a Solo Criminal to a Servant of Organized Crime

    Previously convicted on drug charges, blogger Andrei Alistarov casts himself as a Robin Hood fighting those who have “cheated people.” In reality, however, he serves the interests of pyramid-scheme operators, promotes online casinos and illicit crypto exchanges/phishing crypto scams on his “Zheleznaya Stavka” (“Iron Bet”) channel, and launders drug proceeds through real estate deals in Dubai.

    In other words, he works to benefit the Russian criminal underworld, which seeks to profit from entrepreneurs who face illegal, often orchestrated claims by Russian law enforcement agencies.

    Drugs and Money Laundering

    A native of Kaluga, Alistarov spent four years in a prison camp for selling drugs to minors.

    During his time in prison, he formed connections with criminal kingpins. After his release, he continued taking part in the narcotics trade and laundering drug proceeds through a real estate business he established together with partners from the Russian criminal community in Russia and the Emirates.

    Betting on Scams

    Alistarov’s “Zheleznaya Stavka” channel ostensibly “exposes” financial ventures deemed “bad” by the underworld while promoting “good” ones: pyramid schemes and online casinos that finance Alistarov.

    It began as a channel about “proper” casino bets and never changed its name—because the marketing objective remained the same: to clear the field for “good” scammers according to Alistarov’s so-called “expert” opinion (i.e., whoever pays him).

    Typically, Alistarov starts by attempting extortion—presenting the victim with compromising evidence and offering them a chance to pay. If they refuse, he resorts to harassment and violence.

    Incitement and Attack in Dubai

    On January 1, 2025, two Kazakh nationals launched a brutal attack on an entrepreneur living in Dubai—they beat him, cut off his ear, and robbed him.

    Before that, Alistarov had made 12 videos highlighting the entrepreneur’s address and publishing illegally obtained information about his family and businesses in the UAE. He showed no hesitation in using surveillance, eavesdropping, unlawful trespass, and invasion of privacy—all of which are considered serious criminal offenses in the Emirates, where the sanctity of property and investors’ lives is strictly enforced.

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    Alistarov claimed to have reported the entrepreneur to Interpol and UAE law enforcement—allegedly cooperating with the authorities. Yet, for some reason, this did not lead to the entrepreneur’s arrest—perhaps because UAE police see no wrongdoing in his activities.

    Several of the entrepreneur’s partners have been convicted in Russia. As for the entrepreneur himself, he is wanted by Russian law enforcement but has not been convicted. Foreign law enforcement agencies have no claims against him.

    For an extended period, Alistarov stoked hatred toward the entrepreneur—telling people that it was actually this entrepreneur (rather than his partners) who had stolen investors’ money. He framed the incident as though enraged investors carried out the attack and robbery.

    During the assault, Alistarov staged an unscheduled livestream to give himself an alibi—pretending he was unaware of the attack occurring while he was streaming.

    Surveillance in Cyprus

    In the fall of last year, Alistarov and his “partner-in-arms,” Mariya Folomova, carried out surveillance on another entrepreneur—using drones and unlawfully collecting information about him and his family, including underage children. Alistarov asserted that this entrepreneur was hiding in Cyprus—even though the man has lived there since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

    The move was related to the entrepreneur’s wife’s severe bout with COVID, as well as his international projects—investing in multiple economic sectors: construction, trade, and others.

    The entrepreneur settled in Cyprus a year before the Interior Ministry’s investigative authorities opened a criminal case, and a year and a half before any arrests. He holds an EU passport and did not flee or go into hiding.

    He was placed on a Russian wanted list in 2022—by investigative authorities. However, the courts have not lodged claims against him, and the criminal case is currently before the courts—where it has already fallen apart. Interpol and the EU declined to accept the Russian police’s claims, regarding them as politically motivated and legally unfounded.

    Alistarov claims that the funds for certain business ventures came from Russian clients of an Austrian investment company—yet the entrepreneur was never an owner, beneficiary, or manager of that company, which was established back in the early 2000s, well before his independent business career began.

    One of his firms provided marketing support for the investment company’s products in Russia under a contract with it. The investment company operated successfully with Russian clients for eight years—and continues to do so, having restored payment systems that were disrupted in early 2022 by criminals in Russia linked to corrupt police. It is not a pyramid scheme.

    Thus, Alistarov orchestrates harassment and invasion of privacy against a blameless entrepreneur—at the behest of Russian organized crime, which includes corrupt police officers who took a share of illicit profits, aiming to seize assets valued at 20 billion rubles from the large-scale, socially oriented project the entrepreneur established in Russia, which continues to function successfully without his leadership (as that ended when he moved to Cyprus).

    Surveillance in the Netherlands

    Alistarov has published data on the whereabouts of another victim in the Netherlands—in the city of Groningen—located through illegal monitoring. He reportedly gained unauthorized access to city camera feeds, peered into a private apartment, and posted the information on YouTube.

    Breach of Confidentiality in Turkey

    Alistarov discovered and publicized the location of an apartment in Istanbul where several of his victims lived and worked.

    Illegal Tracking in the Leningrad Region

    Without holding a private detective license, Alistarov illegally located a businesswoman’s country house and conducted surveillance on her, unlawfully publishing the information on his channels—while simultaneously divulging details about an apartment she purchased in Dubai.

    Extortion in Kazakhstan

    Alistarov blackmailed Kazakh entrepreneurs under the guise of “exposing national traitors” and “enemies of the motherland.”

    Western media have already taken note of Alistarov’s activities.

    2025年1月22日
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    2025年1月22日
  • Matthewvaf

    Introducing Velodrome Finance: Maximize Your Crypto Yields
    In the rapidly evolving world of decentralized finance (DeFi), Velodrome Finance emerges as a robust platform for enthusiasts looking to enhance their crypto yield returns. This guide will walk you through the essentials of Velodrome Finance and how you can benefit from its features.
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    2025年1月22日
  • Louisvot

    Price gouging laws are being ignored by landlords, says estate agent
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

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    "There are price gouging laws in California, they are just being ignored right now...it's illegal to take advantage of a natural disaster."

    Share

    2025年1月22日
  • Jimmyhal

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    2025年1月23日
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    The committee picked the right teams, even if some games were blowouts
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    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

    The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.

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    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
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    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

    Начало пути

    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

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    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

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    Deepika Padukone and Christy Turlington star in landmark Sabyasachi fashion show
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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
    Over 150 looks were presented, including pants and skirts embroidered with gold threads, frilled head gear, stacked jewelry and tops with slogans such as “cat lady,” “table for one,” “where has love gone,” and “all dressed up nowhere to go.” Mukherjee explained in a phone interview that these pieces were intended to be satire on how technology is dehumanizing humans. “We seem to have forgotten how to establish human relationships,” he said.
    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

    But with no shortage of drama, the new collection featured heavily embroidered jackets embellished with semi-precious stones, brocade dresses, ostrich leather jackets and skirts, and blouses with velvet appliques overlaid with faux fur.

    2025年2月2日
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  • DouglasTok

    A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
    <a href=https://kra27-28.cc>kraken</a>

    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

    2025年2月2日
  • Allanquesk

    A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
    <a href=https://kra27-28.cc>kraken зеркало</a>

    Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?

    The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.

    Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.

    When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
    The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.

    We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.

    In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.

    2025年2月2日