IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|欧佩克下调2022年全球石油过剩预期

2022年06月02日 44533点热度 49人点赞 16,085条评论
基本面
​美指
美联储褐皮书:部分联储地区经济增速放缓 担忧经济衰退
美联储经济状况褐皮书显示,所有12个联邦储备地区都报告了持续的经济增长,大多数地区显示略有或温和增长;四个地区显示经济温和增长。有四个地区明确指出,自上次报告以来,经济增长速度有所放缓。
9月暂停加息无望?美联储高官:应激进加息至降服通胀
目前尚无美联储官员预计美国会出现经济衰退。旧金山联储主席戴利表示,需要做好准备,尽一切可能降低通货膨胀,并准备在必要时停止加息,她支持在年底前将政策利率提高到2.5%左右。 
   
黄金
俄罗斯政府将矿物肥料出口配额生效期延长到今年12月31日
据俄罗斯卫星通讯社,俄罗斯政府新闻局周二发布消息称,俄罗斯政府将矿物肥料出口配额生效期延长到2022年年底。
乌方:俄罗斯控制了西维罗顿涅茨克70%的地区
乌克兰卢甘斯克地区州长表示,俄罗斯控制了西维罗顿涅茨克70%的地区。
 
原油
欧佩克下调2022年全球石油过剩预期
欧佩克技术委员会正在审查欧佩克石油市场评估,文件显示,欧佩克下调2022年全球石油过剩预期,预计2022年石油供应过剩140万桶/日,此前为190万桶/日。
俄罗斯炼油商先发制人 隐藏进入美国的石油来源
据华尔街日报,船运商和炼油商正在通过掩盖原产地将俄罗斯石油运往市场。部分据信由俄罗斯原油制成的燃料在上个月抵达纽约和新泽西。
  
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元指数收复102美元关口,日内最高触及102.75,最终收涨0.414%,收报101.79。美国10年期国债收益率站上2.9%,刷新逾两周来收盘新高,最终收报2.911%。
观点整理:
美元指数维持震荡的可能性仍然较大,所以操作上也是可以高估低渣,但要选择最适合操作的布局思路,校立则建议择机逢高沽空美元指数,低多非美货币为好,毕竟当前美元指数的压力还暂时存在,故可择机逢高沽空
  
黄金
市场行情整理:
现货黄金先跌后涨,盘中一度下破1830美元关口,美盘前短线拉升,较日低拉涨逾20美元,随后有所回落,最终收涨0.51%,报1846.38美元/盎司;
观点整理:
美国经济数据相对靓丽,多位美联储官员再次发表鹰派讲话,美元涨至逾一周高位,美债收益率创两周新高,油价周四大幅回落,这令金价短线仍面临一定的下跌风险。技术面1950关口阻力仍在,后市偏空。
  
原油
市场行情整理:
国际油价方面,两油宽幅震荡。WTI原油在逾3美元的区间内波动,最终收跌0.54%,报114.81美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌0.33%,报115.83美元/桶。
观点整理:
因此前有报道称如果俄罗斯产量下降,沙特将增加石油供应,这极大的缓解了供给紧张的担忧;而且,在周四OPEC+会议前,部分多头获利了结,也对油价形成拖累。技术面来看,短线看空信号有所增强。

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