IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|通胀压力使鲍威尔成为美国国会关注的焦点

2023年03月07日 4193点热度 40人点赞 705条评论
基本面
​美指
通胀压力使鲍威尔成为美国国会关注的焦点
美联储主席鲍威尔的任务变得更加复杂了。就在一个月前,美国经济似乎还在降温,通胀也在稳步下降。但此后大量的政府数据描绘了一幅截然不同的画面。事实上,除了因借贷成本上升而遭受重创的房地产行业外,美国经济的大多数领域似乎普遍能够抵御美联储的加息。
   
黄金
德银:如果日本央行跟进加息,日元或升值60%
德意志银行预测,如果日本央行此后进入货币政策“正常化”周期,结束其数十年来始终维持的超低利率政策,而同时美联储则在加息到峰值后进入新的降息周期的话,那么日元汇率将出现扶摇直上的走势。美元兑日元汇价将从当前的136重挫至85,这意味着日元升值幅度将高达60%。
   
原油
制裁导致俄罗斯原油流向阿联酋
根据船舶跟踪数据和贸易消息,阿联酋一直在接收更多的俄罗斯原油,这是西方对俄罗斯的制裁令传统能源贸易流动发生改变的又一例证。目前尚不清楚阿联酋从何时开始进口俄罗斯原油,但油轮跟踪数据显示,在俄乌冲突爆发导致西方对俄罗斯实施制裁之后,阿联酋的原油进口量有所上升。船舶跟踪数据显示,自2022年11月以来,约有150万桶俄罗斯原油运往阿联酋。
  
技术面
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元指数震荡下行,最终收跌0.249%,报104.29。美国10年期国债收益率V型反转,美盘拉升收复日内跌幅,最终收涨0.02%,报3.964%。
观点整理:
今日美元指数走出震荡偏强的可能性更大一些,也就是说,美元指数会先运行震荡,随后再逐步走高,故操作上可择机逢低买入美元指数,伺机逢高沽空非美货币即可
  
黄金
市场行情整理:
由于鲍威尔讲话和非农数据等风险因素逼近,现货黄金从稍早触及的两周半高位回落,日内最低触及1845.01,最终收跌0.28%,报1847.2美元/盎司
观点整理:
鲍威尔可能不会在听证会上提供明确的指引,相反,预计他将保留所有的选项,但会表示倾向于加息25个基点。如果晚间鲍威尔的讲话并不是特别的鹰派,则金价有望延续上周的反弹走势。
  
原油
市场行情整理:
原油先跌后涨,WTI原油站上80美元/桶,为2月13日以来首次,最终收涨1.41%,报80.4美元/桶;布伦特原油自2月16日以来首次升破86美元/桶,最终收涨0.89%,报86.45美元/桶。
观点整理:
此前行业高管对市场闲置产能有限以及俄罗斯供应的不确定性表示担忧,同时最大原油进口国中国的需求正在复苏。此前油价已经连续五个月交易日上涨,技术面看涨信号延续,有望进一步试探11月底以来宽幅震荡的箱体顶部83.31附近阻力。

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