IEXS盈十证券汇市分析|美元油低位震荡,EIA库存会不会带动油价继续暴跌?

2024年10月30日 10962点热度 7321人点赞 95条评论

基本面​

美指

日本央行本料将维持利率不变,是否会就下次加息时间发出任何信号?

美国和日本大选不确定性加剧,美媒预测日本央行周四将维持政策不变,但经济学家提醒,12月加息还不是完全不可能。

黄金

美国第三季度GDP数据来袭,分析师:技术指标支持金价出现又一波涨势

现货黄金维持日内升势,金价目前已经站上2780美元/盎司。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik写道,看涨黄金的理由依然稳固,买家现在目标是测试2800美元/盎司。如果GDP数据高于市场预期,直接反应可能是提振美元,并导致金价走低。

原油

美原油低位震荡,EIA库存会不会带动油价继续暴跌?

上周美国原油库存意外减少60万桶。然而,随着中东战争溢价的缓和将焦点转移回疲软的基本面,包括需求低迷和供应充足,短期有企稳可能,但基本面上依然没有能够出现反转的迹象,日内需要留意EIA库存数据的变化,是否继续意外增加,从而使得美原油跌破区间支撑,从而加速下行。

技术面

美元指数

市场行情整理: 

美元指数先涨后跌,盘中一度涨至104.64的日内高点,但随后回吐日内全部涨幅并转跌,最终收跌0.03%,报104.28。美债收益率有所回落,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.256%;对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率收报4.100%。

观点整理:

目前日线级别支撑于103.80-90区域,此位置决定美指波段走势的关键,随着时间的推移四小时阻力暂时关注104.30-40区间阻力,暂时关注此区域后续承压,下方则重点关注价格回撤修正至日线支撑区域后再关注价格能否下破是关键,一旦下破则后续还有承压。

黄金

市场行情整理:

受美国总统大选和中东冲突的不确定性,以及市场对美联储降息的预期继续提振,现货黄金继续创下历史新高,盘中大涨超1%,将历史高点刷新至2774.69美元,最终收涨1.17%,报2774.40美元/盎司。现货白银收涨2.33%,报34.45美元/盎司。

观点整理:

市场不确定性情绪继续升温,且美国非农数据以及大选尚未落地,多头借助情绪继续走高,等待基本面新的变化

原油

市场行情整理:

据悉以色列总理内塔尼亚胡试图通过外交途径解决黎巴嫩战争问题,原油延续跌势。WTI原油在美盘前一度涨至68.33美元的日内高点,随后回吐日内全部涨幅并转跌,最终收跌0.78%,报67.31美元/桶;布伦特原油收跌0.82%,报71.00美元/桶。

观点整理:

Lipow Oil Associates 总裁安迪·利波表示,原油市场又回到了供应过剩的状态,今年剩余时间里,油价仍将面临压力,布伦特原油价格在可预见的未来可能很难达到80美元。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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