美元指数基本持稳，现报91.70附近；现货黄金自日内高点回落，目前位于1726美元/盎司左右，亚市早盘金价一度逼近1735美元/盎司。本周多家央行将公布利率决议，其中最为关键的将是美联储利率利率决议以及美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。经济数据方面，美国将公布包括零售销售在内的重要经济数据。地缘政治局势方面，中美本周将举行高级别会晤，这将受到投资者的高度关注，假如会晤传出较为乐观的信息，市场风险偏好情绪可能会升温，这将对金价构成打击。此外，缅甸局势进一步恶化，截止目前示威活动已导致126人死亡。
因美元小幅回落和股市走软抵消了美国国债收益率上升带来的压力，金价上周五小幅走高。现货黄金收报1726.96美元/盎司，上涨4.51美元或0.26% 金价上周五在1700.00美元/盎司关口找到坚固支撑，并明显反弹。假如金价突破1735.00美元/盎司，这将推动金价继续升势并涨向下一目标1765.00美元/盎司。但倘若金价自1724.00美元/盎司区域回落，这将令金价施压并重回看空轨道，首个目标位于1692.00美元/盎司。
根据Kitco News上周五(3月12日)公布的黄金调查结果，黄金市场的看跌情绪似乎正在发生变化，金价将保持在1700美元/盎司上方，分析师认为市场至少有短期触底的迹象。
上周，有16位专业分析师参与了调查。共有6位分析师(38%)预计金价本周将上涨。与此同时，看跌者和中立者打成平手，5位分析师(31%)预计本周价格将走低，也有同样多的分析师预计价格将横向波动。
许多分析师表示，美国最新的财政刺激支出将继续为黄金提供长期支撑。不过，也有人指出，最新的支出法案将提振增长预期，推高股市和债券收益率。
Phoenix Futures and Options LLC总裁Kevin Grady说道：“令人失望的是，在1.9万亿美元的经济刺激方案通过之后，金价没有走高。如果金价不能在此基础上上涨，我不知道什么会推高它。”
Adrian Day资产管理公司总裁Adrian Day表示，他不看好本周的黄金。不过，他补充称，他认为金价正接近周期性低点。
Forexlive.com外汇策略主管Adam Button表示，他看好金价，因为金价能守住约1680美元的支撑位。他说：“市场正在学习接受更高的利率，美联储本周的信息将是，他们将非常耐心。”
美联储决议重磅来袭
香港时间周四02:00，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将公布利率决议；香港时间周四02:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。
近期美债收益率持续攀升引发市场不安，投资者担心美国经济过热。美联储似乎淡定看待收益率，本周联储将召开政策会议，投资人将从中揣度其最新看法。
巴克莱(Barclays)预计，美联储可能会继续通过各种论调或指引，使股市投资者相信，目前市场对美联储何时加息以及加息幅度的预期显得“过于激进”。美联储还可能讨论短期通胀与长期通胀之间的关系。
当地时间1月27日，美联储在为期两日的政策会议后表示，将维持指标短期借款利率在接近零的水平，并维持资产购买计划，即美联储每月至少购买1200亿美元，符合市场预期。FOMC在会后声明中写道：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏步伐放缓，疲弱集中在受疫情影响最严重的行业。”声明重申，新冠疫情“正在美国和世界各地造成巨大的人力和经济困难。”
美联储鲍威尔1月27日会议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储将维持宽松的货币政策，直至双重实现目标。美联储合理的状态将是高水平的宽松。鲍威尔当日指出，锚定通胀预期具有重要意义，美国经济距离取得实质性进展可能还有“一段时间”。他还表示，现在还不是讨论关于缩减资产购买力度的日期的时候。
美国10年期国债收益率上周五攀升至1.6%以上。当前收益率和黄金之间的相关性是，随着收益率上升，黄金价格下跌。到目前为止，美联储在很大程度上忽略了这个问题，这就是为什么本周美联储主席鲍威尔将在宣布利率后举行新闻发布会时受到所有人的关注。
RJO Futures资深大宗商品经纪商Daniel Pavilonis指出，就连欧洲央行上周四也表示，它担心通货膨胀和印钞。Pavilonis称，如果美联储也发表类似言论，那将对黄金有利，收益率上升的事实可能表明美联储正在失去控制。
道明证券全球策略主管Bart Melek表示，鲍威尔不太可能就收益率曲线发表任何重要的新评论。鲍威尔将向我们保证，现在谈论加息还为时过早。他说：“上次，当收益率大幅上升，而风险偏好没有受到影响时，他的态度相当模棱两可。”
Phoenix Futures and Options LLC总裁Kevin Grady补充说，鲍威尔可能会试图“通过谈话降低收益率”。
此外，市场也将看到美联储更新后的季度预测。荷兰国际集团(ING)的经济学家预计，美国2021年的GDP预期将被上调。
该行经济学家们说道：“也会有很多人对联邦基金利率点阵图感兴趣。美联储2023年点阵图的中值是否会变为加息25个基点？可能不会，但如果这样做了，美元很可能会升值。但FOMC基本不变的声明，以及鲍威尔在新闻发布会上重申，美联储在削减刺激措施之前还有很长的路要走，应该可以防止美元走得太远。 ”
“恐怖数据”驾到
香港时间周二20:30，美国将公布2月零售销售数据。零售销售数据能直接反映消费情况，对经济有重要指引作用，因此受到投资者高度关注。
媒体调查显示，美国2月零售销售月率料下降0.5%，上月为增长5.3%。
(美国零售销售月率走势图来源：FX168)
调查并显示，美国2月核心零售销售月率料上升0.1%，上月为增长5.9%。
美国零售销售数据素有“恐怖数据”之称，因其通常对金融市场有较大的影响，因此很可能对美元、黄金等资产走势产生影响。
分析师指出，假如美国零售销售数据表现逊于预期，美元可能会遭受打击，金价有望反弹。
除了零售销售之外，本周美国还将有一系列其它新的经济数据需要关注。周一将公布纽约联储制造业指数，周二将公布工业生产数据。美国周三将公布房屋开工和营建许可数据，周四将公布费城联储制造业指数和初请失业金人数。
中美将举行高层会晤
3月18日至19日，美国国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)和国家安全顾问沙利文(Jake Sullivan)将在阿拉斯加的安克雷奇与中国主管外事工作的政治局委员杨洁篪和中国国务委员兼外长王毅会晤。这将是拜登政府任期内两国间的首次面对面会晤。
当地时间3月10日，美国国务院在其网站发表声明称，美国国务卿布林肯及国家安全顾问沙利文将于3月18日在美国阿拉斯加安克雷奇与中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪及国务委员兼外交部长王毅举行会晤，并将与中方就一系列问题展开对话。
根据中国外交部网站3月11日消息，外交部发言人赵立坚宣布：应美方邀请，中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任杨洁篪、国务委员兼外长王毅将同美国国务卿布林肯、总统国家安全事务助理沙利文于3月18日至19日在安克雷奇举行中美高层战略对话。
布林肯3月10日在国会众议院外交事务委员会的一场听证中表示，这场会晤将有机会以“坦率的”方式向北京阐述美方关切。他说：“我们打算，也将会提出很多议题。”他表示，会谈也将探索是否存在与北京合作的渠道。
赵立坚在回应美国务卿布林肯有关表态时指出，应美方邀请，中美将于近期举行高层战略对话。中方对中美关系的立场是明确的。我们要求美方客观、理性看待中国和中美关系，摒弃冷战、零和思维，尊重中方的主权、安全和发展利益。停止干涉中国内政，按照两国元首通话精神，聚焦合作、管控分歧，推动中美关系重回健康稳定发展的正确轨道。
美国国务院发言人普莱斯(Ned Price)3月11日对记者表示，这将是一次“困难的”对话。他说：“我们将坦率地解释北京的行动和行为是如何挑战安全、繁荣和价值观的，不仅是美国，还有我们的伙伴和盟友。”普莱斯表示：“就这种双边接触而言，我们希望北京方面表现出认真的态度，对自己经常表示的改变两国双边关系基调的愿望表现出认真态度。”
白宫新闻秘书普萨基(Jen Psaki)称，美国官员将在会谈中谈到中国穆斯林维吾尔族的“种族灭绝”问题。普萨基说道：“美国的立场当然是，正在发生的是种族灭绝，我们将寻找机会与其他伙伴合作，对中国施加更多压力。这将是本周的讨论话题。”
普莱斯表示，在与盟友磋商后，华盛顿在以强势地位接近中国的目标上取得了进展。为此目的，布林肯向代表众多伙伴和盟国的外交部长们发表了讲话。上个月，布林肯参加了欧盟外交事务理事会(European Union Foreign Affairs Council)会议，并将于下周对日本和韩国进行首次外交访问。
普莱斯指出，拜登政府还重新参与了《巴黎气候协定》，寻求重申核心民主价值观，并试图整顿国内的秩序，包括加强供应链的早期步骤——所有这些步骤都旨在打击中国的自信。
普莱斯说：“我们一直在为我们的盟友说话，并谴责中国对许多这些共同的、甚至普遍的价值观的侮辱，无论是在新疆，还是在香港，或在台湾，或在世界任何地方。 ”他说，这些问题很可能是阿拉斯加州会谈的主题。他补充说：“有很多分歧。我们肯定不会有所保留。”普莱斯说，与此同时，拜登政府认识到中美“多方面”关系中可能进行合作的领域，包括气候变化领域，条件是北京方面言行一致。
当地时间3月12日，沙利文出席在白宫出席记者会时表示，不认为第一阶段的贸易协议会成为本周的主要话题。沙利文说，美国官员本周会见北京高级别外交官时，将对中国在香港的行动以及涉及技术的安全风险表示担忧。沙利文表示，美国官员还将处理上周五亚洲盟友提出的有关中国“胁迫澳大利亚”和“在中印边界激进行动”等问题。
在前总统特朗普执政期间，美国和中国的关系降至几十年来的最低水平，两国互相祭出制裁措施并互相加征关税，驱逐记者，关闭领事馆。
中美两国元首在2月11日农历新年前夕通了电话，通话时间长达两个多小时。尽管发出了“破冰”呼吁，但中国和美国仍处于激烈的地缘政治竞争之中，并在从香港和台湾、贸易战到新疆人权侵犯等问题上存在分歧。但双方都明白两国关系的重要性，美国国务卿布林肯称，中美关系“可能是世界上最重要的关系”。
布林肯在2月早些时候与杨洁篪通电话时说，美国将捍卫新疆、西藏和香港的人权和民主价值观。布林肯还敦促中国谴责缅甸的军事政变，并重申华盛顿将与盟友合作，要求中国对威胁包括台湾海峡在内的印太地区稳定的行为负责。
《华尔街日报》援引拜登政府官员的话说，美中高层会议的目标是就双方对各自国内政治的期望和计划，以及国际、地区和全球目标交换意见，话题将包括新冠疫情，气候变化，以及双方有分歧的香港台湾议题，以及中国对澳大利亚的经济打压等。
复旦大学美国研究中心韦宗友教授认为，在拜登政府重新评估特朗普的对华政策之际，如此高水平的会晤可能有助于为中美两国关系设定基调和方向。韦宗友表示：“双方可能会就如何管理中美之间的竞争以及加强务实合作进行磋商和讨论。高级别会晤还将表明，两国领导人不希望双边关系继续沿着特朗普时代的对抗道路发展。”韦宗友表示，还有一种可能性是，这次会晤可能有助于为习近平主席和拜登总统未来的会晤奠定基础。
缅甸局势继续恶化示威活动已致126人死亡
缅甸军政府实施“政变”以来，民间示威活动愈演愈烈，据媒体报道，周日(3月14日)至少39人在示威活动中遭到杀害，成为军方政变以来的“最血腥”一日。缅甸军方周日晚间并宣布，位于第一大城仰光的莱达雅区及雪比达区都进入戒严状态。
据路透报道，缅甸援助政治犯协会(Assistance Association for Political Prisoners)表示，3月14日，在缅甸主要城市仰光的莱达雅地区，安全部队打死了至少22名反对政变的抗议者，此前在那里的中资企业或中缅合资企业被纵火。另有16名抗议者和一名警察在其他地方被杀，这是自2月1日针对民选领导人昂山素季的政变以来最血腥的一天。缅甸援助政治犯协会提到，截至目前已知在抗争活动中死亡的人数累计已达126人。
周日也传出有多间中资工厂遭到破坏、起火燃烧。据央视新闻消息，自当地时间3月14日下午开始至傍晚，缅甸仰光多个工业区的十多家工厂遭遇纵火和打砸，涉及企业多数为中资企业或中缅合资企业，其中以服装加工厂、服装辅料厂和配套设备厂为主。纵火者大多骑着摩托车，带有铁棍、斧子和汽油桶，冲进工厂以后先是打砸和恐吓工厂值班人员，之后便开始纵火。目前，尚无法确定纵火者身份。
据《香港经济日报》周一报道称，缅甸当地有十余家工厂遭纵火打砸，多数为中资或中缅合资企业，其中以服装加工厂、服装辅料厂和配套设备厂为主。有在缅甸从事纺织行业的华人表示：“就在刚才，我们又接到了很多中资企业的反馈，已经有超过20家企业遭到不同程度打砸、纵火。现在情况正朝向不可控的方向发展。局势还没有停息，还在蔓延、恶化。”
缅甸国家管理委员会3月14日晚宣布，在仰光部分地区实施军事管制。根据缅甸国家管理委员会发布的消息，位于仰光莱达雅和瑞必达两个镇区的部分工厂当天遭纵火，消防人员赶往现场时遭到制造事端人群阻拦。为有效维护安定与法治，决定在这两个地区实施军事管制，由仰光地区军事长官负责行使行政和司法权力。
缅甸去年11月举行联邦议会选举，全国民主联盟（民盟）获半数以上联邦议会席位。缅甸军方与民盟围绕大选结果产生分歧，军方认为大选存在舞弊行为，要求选举委员会展开调查，并推迟召开新一届联邦议会会议。今年2月1日凌晨，缅甸总统温敏、国务资政昂山素季及民盟部分高级官员被军方扣押。缅甸军方随后宣布实施为期一年的紧急状态，国家权力被移交给国防军总司令敏昂莱。2月2日，缅甸国家管理委员会成立，敏昂莱任委员会主席。
根据中国驻缅甸使馆网站3月14日消息，中国驻缅甸使馆发言人就在缅中资企业遭打砸抢烧发表谈话。3月14日下午，缅甸仰光莱达雅工业区多家中资工厂遭不法分子打砸抢烧，多名中方人员受伤，有员工一度被困。中国驻缅甸使馆第一时间同缅甸中国企业商会和相关企业取得联系，迅速要求当地警方采取有力措施，保障中资企业及人员安全。使馆还再次向中国在缅企业和人员发出安全提示。
使馆发言人指出，中国对缅友好政策面向全体缅甸人民，中缅经贸合作始终基于互利共赢原则，尤其注重惠及缅当地民众。此次受害的绝大多数企业来自纺织制衣行业，中方企业在这个领域的投资为缅甸创造近40万个就业机会。不法分子的行为同样损害缅甸民众的利益。
使馆发言人说道：“这次打砸抢烧事件性质十分恶劣。中方要求缅方采取进一步有效措施，制止一切暴力行为，依法查处相关肇事者，确保在缅中国企业和人员的生命和财产安全。我们呼吁缅甸民众合法表达诉求，不被煽动和利用，破坏中缅友好合作。”
对于中国支持缅甸军方的说法，中国驻缅甸大使陈海曾回应称，外传中国飞机运送技术人员赴缅、帮助缅甸建防火墙、中国士兵出现在缅甸街头等，这些说法完全是无稽之谈，十分可笑。如果这类流言能在缅甸有市场，只能说明其背后有别有用心的势力在操控和煽动。
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When night falls over the broad vistas of the US state they call the Last Frontier, you can then climb the steps to two unique accommodation experiences: a converted McDonnell Douglas DC-6 airplane and the newest arrival, a McDonnell Douglas DC-9 – still with its DHL livery.
The fast-developing site is an ongoing project by FLY8MA founder Jon Kotwicki, who previously owned a flight school in Florida, before working as a commercial pilot and eventually ending up in Alaska.
Flying for the airlines “pays good money and everything, but it’s a very boring job,” he says. “Driving Uber is more interesting because you could talk to your passengers.”
Having fallen in love with the south central region on a vacation spent hiking, fishing and spotting bears and grizzlies, he chose it as a spot where he and his team – and his trusty Pomeranian dog Foxtrot – could “buy a lot of property and perhaps develop our own airport and run our own show.”
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Human brain samples collected at autopsy in early 2024 contained more tiny shards of plastic than samples collected eight years prior, according to a preprint posted online in May. A preprint is a study which has not yet been peer-reviewed and published in a journal.
“The concentrations we saw in the brain tissue of normal individuals, who had an average age of around 45 or 50 years old, were 4,800 micrograms per gram, or 0.5% by weight,” said lead study author Matthew Campen, a regents’ professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque.
“Compared to autopsy brain samples from 2016, that’s about 50% higher,” Campen said. “That would mean that our brains today are 99.5% brain and the rest is plastic.”
That increase, however, only shows exposure and does not provide information about brain damage, said Phoebe Stapleton, an associate professor of pharmacology and toxicology at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey, who was not involved in the preprint.
“It is unclear if, in life, these particles are fluid, entering and leaving the brain, or if they collect in neurological tissues and promote disease,” she said in an email. “Further research is needed to understand how the particles may be interacting with the cells and if this has a toxicological consequence.”
The brain samples contained 7% to 30% more tiny shards of plastic than samples from the cadavers’ kidneys and liver, according to the preprint.
“Studies have found these plastics in the human heart, the great blood vessels, the lungs, the liver, the testes, the gastrointestinal tract and the placenta,” said pediatrician and biology professor Dr. Philip Landrigan, director of the Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good and the Global Observatory on Planetary Health at Boston College.
“It’s important not to scare the hell out of people, because the science in this space is still evolving, and nobody in the year 2024 is going to live without plastic,” said Landrigan, who was not involved with the preprint.
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Drought-hit Danube River reveals scuttled German World War II ships
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The wrecks of explosives-laden Nazi ships sunk in the Danube River during World War II have emerged near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, after a drought in July and August that saw the river’s water level drop.
Four vessels dating from before 1950 have also come to light in Hungary’s Danube-Drava National Park near Mohacs, where the Danube’s water level stood at only 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) on Tuesday, the lingering effect of severe heat waves and persistent drought in July and August.
The vessels revealed in Prahovo were among hundreds scuttled along the Danube by Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, destroying the ships themselves. The wrecks can hamper river traffic during low water levels.
Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sandbanks.
Endre Sztellik, a guard at the Danube-Drava national park, said of one of the ships, “we still don’t know what this is exactly. What is visible and an unfortunate fact is that the wreck is diminishing as people are interested in it and parts of it are going missing.”
The Danube stood at 1.17 meters (3.8 feet) in Budapest on Tuesday, which compares with an all-time record low of around 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) registered in October 2018. During floods, the Danube rises well above 6 meters (19.7 feet).
“Eastern Europe is experiencing critical drought conditions that are affecting crops and vegetation,” the European climate service Copernicus said on its website in its latest drought report, published earlier this month.
Remember when Lady Gaga ‘bled’ onstage during her shocking performance at the 2009 VMAs?
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Singing about the perils of fame, being dragged out from beneath a fallen chandelier then bleeding to death in front of a roomful of celebrities: Lady Gaga was not shy about making her debut at the MTV Video Music Awards.
The year was 2009 — many will remember it as the year rapper Ye (formerly Kanye West) stage-crashed 19-year-old Taylor Swift and suggested her award for Best Female Video should have gone to Beyonce instead. But never one to be overshadowed, Lady Gaga, then 23, made some pop culture history of her own that night.
Her rendition of “Paparazzi” — lamenting both unrequited love and the sinister effects of hounding tabloids — has gone down in the mists of Gaga legend; not least because a lack of high-quality footage means fans must resort to watching grainy screen-recorded versions circulated on social media.
Over the limited number of pixels, Gaga can be seen at the start of the performance in an all-white ensemble: a bejeweled, asymmetric lace bodysuit and matching cape, thigh-high boots, a feathered Keko Hainswheeler headpiece and strings of glinting pearls. As she staggered back from her piano at the song’s crescendo, however, an audible gasp swept the room as thick blood suddenly appeared to be pouring from her abdomen.
“I’m your biggest fan, I’ll follow you until you love me,” Gaga wailed desperately, her once-pristine outfit now daubed in scarlet. She ended the number suspended above the stage, ‘dead,’ as more blood dripped from her eyes.
“(It) gives me chills every time I watch it,” Olivia Rodrigo told MTV in 2021. “I think Lady Gaga is the best performer of our generation.” The “Drivers License” singer appeared to take notes. At this year’s Grammy Awards, she began to ‘bleed’ from clenched fists while performing her hit “vampire,” spreading fake blood across her arms and neck as the song progressed.
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