减持美债是避免被美国“薅羊毛”的良策吗?

2021年04月07日 12371点热度 0人点赞 2,026条评论

减持美债是避免被美国“薅羊毛”的良策吗?

美国大规模经济刺激带来的通胀、债务和金融稳定风险等危机成本有可能向全球各国转嫁,中国等新兴市场经济体面临被“薅羊毛”的可能性。

有观点认为,为防止外汇储备缩水,不被“薅羊毛”,应该减持美国国债,买入黄金、大宗商品等资源品,或者将外汇储备用于国内。

首先,考虑到仓储容量、价格波动、收益率、投资专业性等因素,外汇储备不宜大量购买资源品;其次,如果外汇储备用于国内等同于投放基础货币,将打乱我国货币政策节奏;最后,美元仍是最重要的国际结算货币和储备货币,我国需要保有适当的美元资产用于参与世界经济和金融活动。

政策建议:外汇储备投资继续坚持安全性、流动性和收益性,在此基础上适度优化资产配置结构。要避免被“薅羊毛”,就必须实现我国对外资产更大比例的市场化配置,“藏汇于民”。 同时,扩大内需、增加汇率弹性,保持国际收支大体平衡,外汇储备规模基本稳定,促进市场主体对外投资稳步增长。

美国大规模经济刺激的成本

可能向全球各国转嫁

在美国大规模经济刺激,以及新冠疫苗广泛接种的推动下,美国经济的复苏速度将超过欧洲、日本等发达经济体。美国经济加速复苏对全球经济能起到很大拉动作用,但大规模经济刺激带来的通胀、债务和金融稳定风险也不容忽视。

通胀压力。大规模财政刺激可能会造成美国短期通胀上升,但不会形成较为恶性的通货膨胀。美联储大概率不会对目前通胀率上升做出反应,经济和就业持续改善是当前主要目标。美国消费复苏带动全球商品需求,原油等大宗商价格上涨,通胀压力在一定程度上由世界各国分担。

债务风险。美国大规模刺激方案的背后,必然伴随着巨大的财政赤字和债务压力。目前,美债总额已经突破28万亿,高出GDP约30%,且还在不断增加。有观点认为,美国利用美元霸权地位,一边“无限量化宽松”印钞,一边“增发美债”借款,通过“左手倒右手”的方式转嫁危机成本,收割全球财富。

全球金融稳定风险。国际货币基金组织警告全球金融市场与实体经济脱节仍在延续。疫情以来,美国财政货币“大放水”,过剩的流动性流向房地产和全球金融市场,推高了金融资产价格。一旦投资者重新评估全球经济增长前景或政策展望,全球资产价格或将面临回调风险。

减持美债并非避免被“薅羊毛”良策

鉴于美国巨额的财政赤字和不断扩大的国际收支逆差,美元将呈现出短期升值、长期贬值的趋势。中国等新兴市场经济体可能被美国“薅羊毛”,主要通过两种方式:

一是全球资本回流。美国经济加速复苏,通货膨胀回升,前一阶段从中国获利的全球外资因此大量流出。

应对此种被美国“薅羊毛”的最佳方式,是保持足够的汇率弹性,让汇率充分发挥稳定器的作用。→详情

二是外汇储备缩水。如果美元贬值,将使得大量持有美元和美元资产的国家财富缩水。

有观点认为,为防止美国通过美元贬值“薅羊毛”,我国应该抛售美国国债,减持美元资产,在全球大规模买入黄金、石油、农产品等资源品。还有观点认为可以将外汇储备用于国内,例如转借国内社会保障基金等。

首先,投资黄金、大宗商品等资源品需综合考虑市场容量、仓储运输、价格波动、流动性、成本和收益等因素。

从历史数据来看,投资大宗商品的回报率和风险水平并不优于投资金融产品,也不符合我国外汇储备投资的“安全、流动、收益”的三原则。

如果我国大规模采购大宗商品,会打破市场的供需平衡,迅速推高价格,可能推动输入型通胀加剧。未来如果投资有回报,意味着大宗商品价格继续上涨,我国是全球最大的大宗商品消费国和进口国,为这些投资回报买单的主要还是中国企业和居民。

因此,外汇储备不适宜用于大规模购买资源品。资源品购买、储存和投资更适合专业的市场主体进行,所需外汇通过市场化方式获得,如果外汇市场出现供需缺口,再考虑通过外汇储备进行调节。

其次,外汇储备是央行付出了等值的人民币(6.54100.00150.02%)负债(即外汇占款)形成的资产。

外汇储备如果用于国内等同于投放基础货币,因为拿到外汇的市场主体会再次将外汇换为人民币才能在国内使用,形成人民币的“二次投放”,造成大水漫灌,严重打乱我国的货币政策节奏。

外汇储备用于国内还将使得央行资产负债表出现重大缺口,影响央行货币政策的公信力,并引起人民币币值波动。

最后,近年外汇储备中的美元资产占比已经明显下降。

根据外管局公布的《国家外汇管理局年报(2019)》,在外汇储备货币结构中,美元占比从1995年的79%下降至2015年的58%,非美元货币同期从21%上升至42%。

在中美贸易摩擦和美国金融制裁风险的背景下,美元资产在我国外汇储备中的占比可能又进一步下降。

继续压降美元资产需充分权衡得失利弊。

其一,外汇储备最重要的是确保安全性和流动性,同时尽可能地提高储备资产收益率。

目前,国际上确实面临“资产荒”问题,低风险、高流动性、高收益的优质资产不足。投资美国国债虽然存在风险,但美国国债相对于欧洲、日本、英国和新兴市场国家的资产,仍然是相对更加安全、流动性更好,同时投资回报率更高的资产。

其二,在外汇市场高度敏感的情况下,如果我国在美国二级市场抛售美元国债,会使得美元汇率下跌,进一步加深我国外汇储备剩余美元资产的汇率风险。抛售美元资产除了带来贬值损失外,还可能进一步恶化中美两国的双边关系。

其三,美国拥有最大的金融市场,美元是最重要的国际结算货币和储备货币,在国际货币体系中仍将在相当长的时间里起着主导作用。短期内,欧元(1.18750.00030.03%)、日元、人民币都难以撼动美元“霸权地位”。

我国需要保有适当的美元资产用于参与世界经济金融活动。美元在一定时期内恐仍是我国外汇储备的首选币种,美元资产所占比例仍持在较高水平。

通过市场化配置外汇资产

分散风险

外汇储备投资仍应坚持安全性、流动性和收益性,在此基础上适度优化资产配置结构。

我国外汇储备规模目前适度,对应的投资应坚持外汇储备管理的初心和使命,也就是安全性、流动性和收益性。要求外汇储备投资追求更多的其他目标,既不利于外汇储备的经营管理,也很难实现其他目标。

从资产多元化角度出发,外汇储备资产结构可以适度调整,例如扩大对外股权投资,提高资产收益率。

拜登政府正在为大规模重建美国基础设施筹资,包括高速公路、铁路、电网等,外汇储备投资也可以通过适当方式参与其中。

在经济加速复苏和美债发行预期下,美债收益率再度上涨并突破1.76%,且仍有上升空间。

虽然美债收益率有限,但在美欧日等主要发达经济体接近零利率的背景下,美债收益率相对而言并不低,安全性和流动性最有保障。我国在合适的时点阶段性地增持美债也可以成为短期的投资策略。

要避免被“薅羊毛”,就必须实现我国对外资产更大比例的市场化配置,“藏汇于民”。

“藏汇于民”并不是市场“瓜分”外汇储备,而是让更多的市场主体通过市场方式获得外汇,并根据需要自主配置境外资产,这样更有利于发挥市场主体的长处。

市场主体分散的决策可以满足各自的不同需要,作出有利于自身的避险安排,在宏观上还可以分散风险。同时,在制裁和地缘政治风险突出的情况下,民间分散的对外投资目标更小、更隐蔽也更容易调整。

避免被“薅羊毛”还需要控制好增量,扩大内需、增加汇率弹性,保持国际收支大体平衡,外汇储备规模总体稳定,市场主体对外投资有序增长。

我国对外资产积累的主要来源是经常账户顺差,2005-2020年我国累计经常项目顺差达到3.5万亿美元。

短期来看,美国大规模刺激有利于中国出口,我国经常项目顺差可能会继续扩大,进而导致外汇储备被动增加,境外资产矛盾更加突出。

中国经济发展正处于结构调整的关键时期,要加快推动结构性改革、扩大内需,增强人民币汇率弹性,保持国际收支大体平衡。

这样,一方面可以保持外汇储备规模总体稳定,另一方面也有利于稳定市场主体的持汇意愿,有序开展对外投资。

    Kratos

    保持饥渴的专注,追求最佳的品质

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    Just look at the multi-hour-long lines to see Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo in Thailand who has become an internet sensation following her July 2024 birth. The sassy animal is now a full-on brand, with Khao Kheow Open Zoo selling Moo Deng merchandise and even releasing a single “by” the hippo in multiple languages.

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    But what happens when these cute animals become, well, less cute? The Sea Life Melbourne aquarium has already been planning for the next phase of Pesto’s life — and answering questions from the public about his changing appearance.

    It’s normal for king penguins to lose their feathers by the time they’re about a year old and become confident swimmers. As a result, a spokesperson for the aquarium says, guests have started asking why Pesto looks different — or why they can’t find him at all.

    “We are getting a few guests thinking we have moved him off display completely,” says the spokesperson. “Most of the team’s time is spent pointing him out to guests because he looks so different now.”
    The bottom line is that cute baby animals make money.

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    2025年2月14日
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    An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.

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    Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.

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    2025年2月14日
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    Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.

    An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.

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    2025年2月17日
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    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

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    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

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    ‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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    By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.

    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

    “It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
    ‘I’ve got something special here’
    Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.

    Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.

    2025年2月20日
  • Kevinskins

    ‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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    By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.

    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

    “It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
    ‘I’ve got something special here’
    Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.

    Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.

    2025年2月20日
  • Ernestfem

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    Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
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    Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
    Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
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    2025年2月20日
  • ThomasKat

    ‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
    <a href=https://kra27c.cc>kraken market</a>
    By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.

    “I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.

    With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.

    “You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”

    On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.

    “It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
    ‘I’ve got something special here’
    Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.

    Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.

    2025年2月20日
  • MichaelSof

    Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
    Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
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    Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
    Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
    В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.
    Актуальные бонусные предложения
    Бонус 500% на первый депозит
    Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
    Еженедельные акции и фриспины
    Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
    Кэшбэк до 10%
    Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
    Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!

    Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!

    Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
    Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:

    Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
    Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
    Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
    Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
    Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
    Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!

    2025年2月20日
  • Randallmus

    Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
    New York
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    Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.

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    That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.

    The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.

    Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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    Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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    The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”

    Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.

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    2025年2月20日