新兴市场“缩减恐慌”或是后疫情时代国际金融稳定的重要尾部风险。对此，搁置争议、尊重科学，在全球范围内共同行动，包括利用“新冠疫苗全球获取机制”公平分配疫苗，帮助发展中国家抗击疫情，让全球经济尽快重启是关键。
分化的复苏或埋下后疫情时代国际金融风险隐患
日前，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在春季年会期间发布了最新《世界经济展望》。IMF预测，今明两年全球经济分别增长6.0%和4.4%，较今年1月份的预测值分别调高了0.5和0.2个百分点，但强调世界经济前景存在巨大的不确定性，这与新冠疫情的未来发展路径、政策支持帮助实现疫苗驱动复苏的效果以及融资环境的变化情况有关。
IMF还特别指出，由于一些国家（主要是大部分新兴市场和发展中国家）没有疫苗研发和生产能力，疫苗普及速度较慢，政策支持有限，且更加依赖旅游业，它们的经济复苏形势相对较弱。
本期《世界经济展望》的副标题是“管理分化的复苏进程（Managing Divergent Recoveries）”。IMF首席经济学家吉塔•戈皮纳斯（Gita Gopinath）在博文中分析指出，各国复苏路径出现分化。如果美国的利率意外地进一步上升，则各国复苏速度不同可能带来金融风险。这可能导致高估的资产价格出现无序调整，融资环境大幅收紧，经济复苏前景恶化，一些债务高企的新兴市场和发展中国家尤其如此。
这种担心并非空穴来风。国际金融协会（IIF）公布的最新数据显示，今年3月份，新兴市场外来组合投资净流入估计为101亿美元，较上月骤降57%，放缓至去年4月份以来的最低水平，主要是因为今年2月份以来10年期美债收益率加速上行令新兴市场承压。其中，除中国以外，同期其他新兴市场股市外资净流入2亿美元，债市净流入12亿美元。美联储编制的对新兴市场货币的名义美元指数(92.2466, 0.0610, 0.07%)显示，到一季度末，较年内低点反弹了2.6%，当季累计上涨了2.1%（见图1），这也从一个侧面反映了新兴市场遭遇的资本外流压力。3月18日，土耳其央行宣布加息，但之后遭遇了股汇债“三杀”。到月末，土耳其里拉对美元汇率较加息当日累计下跌10%，10年国债收益率飙升33%（见图2），伊斯坦布尔100指数下跌13%并多次触发熔断。
IMF分析指出，美国市场利率上行对新兴市场有利有弊。从有利的方面讲，美债收益率上行是受到经济前景及新冠疫苗的利好推动，这往往会促进外来组合投资资金流入，降低大多数新兴市场美元计价债务的利差。但从不利的方面讲，如果发达经济体利率走高是由于人们预期其央行将采取更鹰派的行动，那么这可能会对新兴市场经济体产生危害。因此，本次年会期间，IMF一再警告，如果主要央行突然表示出对通胀风险的更大担忧，全球可能会出现类似2013年的“缩减恐慌”。同时，IMF敦促主要央行应就未来政策措施提供明确的指导，为其他国家预留充足的准备时间。
应对新兴市场“缩减恐慌”的国际经济政策协调说易行难
与2008年全球金融危机相比，这次新冠肺炎疫情大流行引发的公共卫生危机应对中，国际经济政策协调大大弱化，甚至因为大国博弈导致抗疫政治化。即便抛开地缘政治层面的非经济因素不说，仅就应对新兴市场“缩减恐慌”而言，国际经济政策协调也是说起来容易做起来难。
首先，大国货币政策对内优先制约了国际协调的政策空间。
应对新兴市场“缩减恐慌”的国际经济政策协调，实质就是控制主要央行特别是美联储货币政策的溢出效应。除了欧元(1.1893, -0.0008, -0.07%)区这样的超主权经济体，成员国将货币政策让渡给了超主权的欧洲中央银行，一般来讲，主要经济体的货币政策都是优先服务于国内经济增长、充分就业和物价稳定目标，而不会牺牲本国经济利益顾及外部协调。
虽然现在国际组织和主要国家都一再呼吁，不要过早撤销对经济恢复的必要支持，但刺激政策退出是必然的，只是早退或晚退的问题。鉴于各国经济复苏步伐不同，显然经济越快恢复，宏观政策就有可能越早转向常态化。正如中国疫情得到控制、经济率先复苏，超级宽松的货币政策自去年5月底就开始逐步调整。当然，中国也承担了由于中美两国央行货币政策节奏和力度的差异，导致中美利差扩大，推动人民币(6.5526, 0.0015, 0.02%)汇率升值的后果。
其次，美联储政策溢出效应仍是新兴市场必须直面的现实。
“美元是我的货币，却是你的问题”，彰显了现行国际货币体系中美元嚣张的霸权。尽管大家“苦秦久矣”，但至今这一格局没有根本性改变。2008年危机应对，美联储推出三轮量化宽松之时，被斥为挑起货币战争，但当2013年美联储释放退出预期时，又引发了新兴市场“缩减恐慌”。这次危机爆发后，美联储依然执全球央行之牛耳。
去年3月份，疫情大流行、金融大动荡、经济大停摆之时，正是美联储祭出“零利率+无限量宽”的王炸，才让全球金融市场止跌企稳、V形反弹。其间，美联储更是通过货币互换安排最多紧急注入了4000多亿美元流动性（见图3），解了全球“美元荒”的燃眉之急。
目前，尽管美联储矢志要实施更长时间的宽松货币政策，美国政府也在推出一轮又一轮的财政刺激或基建投资计划，但都是为了支持美国经济从疫情中彻底恢复，实现广泛且普惠的充分就业。一旦上述目标达成，相信宽松政策退出乃大势所趋。至于由此引发的负外部性，恐难成为美联储的掣肘。
当年，时任美联储主席伯南克就明确表示，美联储货币政策操作只会关注对美国就业和通胀的影响，至于对其他国家的影响是相关国家央行自己的事情。除非因此引发的海外金融动荡回溢到美国，影响到美国的经济金融前景，美联储或在政策上才会有所考虑。
再次，本次危机中新兴经济体仍处于弱势地位。
世界经济复苏分化，是K形复苏的重要表现形式之一。不论从短期还是中长期看，新兴市场和发展中国家经济受疫情冲击更大。据IMF最新预测，美国有望成为唯一一个将在今年超过疫情前GDP预测水平的大型经济体，包括欧元区在内的其他发达经济体要到明年才可能恢复；在新兴市场和发展中经济体，虽然中国经济已在去年恢复到疫情前水平，但许多其他国家预计将到后年才能回到疫情前的水平。
如果主要经济体特别是美国经济率先复苏，美联储货币宽松政策退出，美元进入汇率升值、利率上行的强周期，对贸易赤字、财政赤字、外债高企的新兴经济体来讲可能就是灾难。目前国际上提出来的鼓励减轻贫穷国家债务负担、增加IMF和世界银行的贷款额度、新增6500亿美元特别提款权分配等解决手段，大都是“救急不救穷”，不能说没有用、不必要，但总体效果有限。其实，最近遭遇“缩减恐慌”的巴西、土耳其等新兴市场，大都在疫情大流行之前就积累了不少经济金融脆弱性，2014至2019年间经历了多轮货币危机（见图4）。
最后，市场沟通可能是主要央行疫后都面临的巨大挑战。
上次危机应对，美联储六年多时间扩表2万多亿美元，10年期美债收益率低至1.4%；这次危机应对，美联储一年时间就扩表3万多亿美元，美债收益率低至0.6%。为应对百年一遇的大流行，现在不计代价的放水情有可原。然而，央行无节制地放水会不会造成通货膨胀、资产泡沫、债务积压，以及未来退出时能否避免刺破资产和信贷泡沫？这些都是未解之谜。
今年以来的美债收益率飙升就缘于经济加快复苏引发的通胀预期上行，尽管美联储一再强调会持续宽松，却没有阻止这一发展趋势。美联储对通胀的判断更多是基于长期视角，但金融市场却只认一点，即通胀显著上升后，货币政策真能保持定力吗？在“平均通胀目标制”的新货币框架下，美联储能够容忍多高的通胀，以及能够容忍多长的时间，这在美联储和市场之间都存在博弈的空间。
有鉴于此，新兴市场“缩减恐慌”或是后疫情时代国际金融稳定的重要尾部风险。对此，搁置争议、尊重科学，在全球范围内共同行动，包括利用“新冠疫苗全球获取机制”公平分配疫苗，帮助发展中国家抗击疫情，让全球经济尽快重启是关键。
对于存在经济金融脆弱性的新兴经济体，要抓住美联储货币宽松的时间窗口，把握美国财政刺激的有利机会，降低经济金融脆弱性。对于其他经济体，对宽松货币政策退出引发的“缩减恐慌”尾部风险在心理和措施上要有所准备，巩固和增强本国经济金融体系稳健性，并做好应对预案。
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Wasilla, south central Alaska. Home to bears, lakes, mountains and a flight school that’s fast becoming a private aviation wonderland.
At FLY8MA Pilot Lodge, you can opt for a scenic flight tour with glacier views, take the controls for a flying lesson, or go all in and get your pilot training.
When night falls over the broad vistas of the US state they call the Last Frontier, you can then climb the steps to two unique accommodation experiences: a converted McDonnell Douglas DC-6 airplane and the newest arrival, a McDonnell Douglas DC-9 – still with its DHL livery.
The fast-developing site is an ongoing project by FLY8MA founder Jon Kotwicki, who previously owned a flight school in Florida, before working as a commercial pilot and eventually ending up in Alaska.
Flying for the airlines “pays good money and everything, but it’s a very boring job,” he says. “Driving Uber is more interesting because you could talk to your passengers.”
Having fallen in love with the south central region on a vacation spent hiking, fishing and spotting bears and grizzlies, he chose it as a spot where he and his team – and his trusty Pomeranian dog Foxtrot – could “buy a lot of property and perhaps develop our own airport and run our own show.”
Tiny shards of plastic are increasingly infiltrating our brains, study says
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Human brain samples collected at autopsy in early 2024 contained more tiny shards of plastic than samples collected eight years prior, according to a preprint posted online in May. A preprint is a study which has not yet been peer-reviewed and published in a journal.
“The concentrations we saw in the brain tissue of normal individuals, who had an average age of around 45 or 50 years old, were 4,800 micrograms per gram, or 0.5% by weight,” said lead study author Matthew Campen, a regents’ professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque.
“Compared to autopsy brain samples from 2016, that’s about 50% higher,” Campen said. “That would mean that our brains today are 99.5% brain and the rest is plastic.”
That increase, however, only shows exposure and does not provide information about brain damage, said Phoebe Stapleton, an associate professor of pharmacology and toxicology at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey, who was not involved in the preprint.
“It is unclear if, in life, these particles are fluid, entering and leaving the brain, or if they collect in neurological tissues and promote disease,” she said in an email. “Further research is needed to understand how the particles may be interacting with the cells and if this has a toxicological consequence.”
The brain samples contained 7% to 30% more tiny shards of plastic than samples from the cadavers’ kidneys and liver, according to the preprint.
“Studies have found these plastics in the human heart, the great blood vessels, the lungs, the liver, the testes, the gastrointestinal tract and the placenta,” said pediatrician and biology professor Dr. Philip Landrigan, director of the Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good and the Global Observatory on Planetary Health at Boston College.
“It’s important not to scare the hell out of people, because the science in this space is still evolving, and nobody in the year 2024 is going to live without plastic,” said Landrigan, who was not involved with the preprint.
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Kayakoy, in southwestern Turkey’s Mugla Province, is a true ghost town. Abandoned by its occupants and haunted by the past. It’s a monument, frozen in time – a physical reminder of darker times in Turkey.
With hillsides dotted by countless crumbling buildings slowly being swallowed by greenery, and endless views into vanished lives, it’s also a fascinating and starkly beautiful place to visit. In summer, under clear skies and blazing suns, it’s eerie enough. Even more so in cooler seasons, wreathed in mountain or sea mists.
Just over a century ago, Kayakoy, or Levissi as it was known, was a bustling town of at least 10,000 Greek Orthodox Christians, many of whom were craftspeople who lived peacefully alongside the region’s Muslim Turkish farmers. But in the upheaval surrounding Turkey’s emergence as an independent republic, their simple lives were torn apart.
Tensions with neighboring Greece after the Greco-Turk war ended in 1922 led to both countries ejecting people with ties to the other. For Kayakoy, that meant a forced population exchange with Muslim Turks living in Kavala, in what is now the Greek region of Macedonia and Thrace.
But the newly arrived Muslims were reputedly less than happy with their new home, swiftly moving on and leaving Kayakoy to fall to ruin.
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Life is Good — почему произошёл технический СКАМ проекта
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Компания «Life Is Good» позиционировала себя как финансово-консалтинговый проект. Она привлекала денежные активы от клиентов, формируя из них инвестиционные вклады, которые приносят пассивный доход от 20% годовых в валюте.
Официальный сайт компании — lifeisgood.company. Ценной информации на нем очень мало. В разделе «О компании» вместо рассказа о том, чем занимается компания, — общие фразы про финансовую независимость и благополучие клиентов, а также шесть рекламных роликов с известными людьми.
Данная компания создана в 2014 году. Зарегистрирована в государстве-офшоре Белиз, что находится в Центральной Америке. Соответственно, выданный там сертификат не имеет на территории России никакой юридической силы. Лицензия ЦБ РФ отсутствует.
Руководитель компании — Роман Василенко, обладатель многочисленных фотошопных регалий, количеству которых позавидовал бы даже Александр Невский (уот так уот), ветеран МЛМ движения в РФ, ну практически святой человек.
С 1990 года по 1999 год служил в Вооруженных силах РФ.
После службы работал в инвестиционной компании Save-Invest (Si), зарегистрированной в Швейцарии, которая обещала инвестиционные продукты со сверх доходностью. В 2000х годах газета Коммерсантъ выпустила статью о расследовании сотрудников ФСБ на предмет ведения мошеннической деятельности в РФ.
В 2012 году руководитель Оренбургского управления Татьяна Горынина, обманувшая своих клиентов на 50 млн. получила 6 лет тюрьмы за мошенничество.
Далее работал в инвестиционной компании “Life Division”, которая до сих пор продолжает свою работу.
Также Роман активно ведёт блог в инстаграмме и на ютуб, темы всё те же — успешный успех, освободись от рабства, нужно только захотеть и т.д.
Участники делали ежемесячные взносы в счет стоимости будущей квартиры. Значительная часть средств шла организаторам компании, а все остальное делились между вышестоящими пайщиками.
Наступила стадия «критического дна», т.е. взносов от новичков поступало меньше, чем необходимо выплачивать более «старым» клиентам, основатели компании приостановили свою деятельность, а суммы, которые многие годы вносили пайщики, им просто не вернули.
Life Is Good позиционировала себя как европейская компания, но привлекала в основном Россиян. Кстати, официальный сайт Life is Good переведен сразу на 9 языков. Непонятно для чего это сделано, ведь компания работает только в России, Казахстане и Киргизии. Наверное, поэтому над переводом на английский язык здесь не стали заморачиваться. С первого взгляда видны грубые грамматические ошибки.
Компания работала в сотрудничестве с еще тремя: Best Way, Hermes Management и Vista.
Гарантий сохранности денег не давала ни «Лайф-из-гуд», ни «Гермес-менеджмент». Но при этом «Лайф-из-гуд» все же предлагала страхование вложенных денег по оригинальной схеме.
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Drought-hit Danube River reveals scuttled German World War II ships
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The wrecks of explosives-laden Nazi ships sunk in the Danube River during World War II have emerged near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, after a drought in July and August that saw the river’s water level drop.
Four vessels dating from before 1950 have also come to light in Hungary’s Danube-Drava National Park near Mohacs, where the Danube’s water level stood at only 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) on Tuesday, the lingering effect of severe heat waves and persistent drought in July and August.
The vessels revealed in Prahovo were among hundreds scuttled along the Danube by Nazi Germany’s Black Sea fleet in 1944 as they retreated from advancing Soviet forces, destroying the ships themselves. The wrecks can hamper river traffic during low water levels.
Strewn across the riverbed, some of the ships still have turrets, command bridges, broken masts and twisted hulls, while others lie mostly submerged under sandbanks.
Endre Sztellik, a guard at the Danube-Drava national park, said of one of the ships, “we still don’t know what this is exactly. What is visible and an unfortunate fact is that the wreck is diminishing as people are interested in it and parts of it are going missing.”
The Danube stood at 1.17 meters (3.8 feet) in Budapest on Tuesday, which compares with an all-time record low of around 0.4 meters (1.3 feet) registered in October 2018. During floods, the Danube rises well above 6 meters (19.7 feet).
“Eastern Europe is experiencing critical drought conditions that are affecting crops and vegetation,” the European climate service Copernicus said on its website in its latest drought report, published earlier this month.