从全球分化的经济复苏看国际经济政策协调难题

2021年04月12日 11078点热度 0人点赞 2,276条评论

新兴市场“缩减恐慌”或是后疫情时代国际金融稳定的重要尾部风险。对此,搁置争议、尊重科学,在全球范围内共同行动,包括利用“新冠疫苗全球获取机制”公平分配疫苗,帮助发展中国家抗击疫情,让全球经济尽快重启是关键。

分化的复苏或埋下后疫情时代国际金融风险隐患

日前,国际货币基金组织(IMF)在春季年会期间发布了最新《世界经济展望》。IMF预测,今明两年全球经济分别增长6.0%和4.4%,较今年1月份的预测值分别调高了0.5和0.2个百分点,但强调世界经济前景存在巨大的不确定性,这与新冠疫情的未来发展路径、政策支持帮助实现疫苗驱动复苏的效果以及融资环境的变化情况有关。

IMF还特别指出,由于一些国家(主要是大部分新兴市场和发展中国家)没有疫苗研发和生产能力,疫苗普及速度较慢,政策支持有限,且更加依赖旅游业,它们的经济复苏形势相对较弱。

本期《世界经济展望》的副标题是“管理分化的复苏进程(Managing Divergent Recoveries)”。IMF首席经济学家吉塔•戈皮纳斯(Gita Gopinath)在博文中分析指出,各国复苏路径出现分化。如果美国的利率意外地进一步上升,则各国复苏速度不同可能带来金融风险。这可能导致高估的资产价格出现无序调整,融资环境大幅收紧,经济复苏前景恶化,一些债务高企的新兴市场和发展中国家尤其如此。

从全球分化的经济复苏看国际经济政策协调难题

这种担心并非空穴来风。国际金融协会(IIF)公布的最新数据显示,今年3月份,新兴市场外来组合投资净流入估计为101亿美元,较上月骤降57%,放缓至去年4月份以来的最低水平,主要是因为今年2月份以来10年期美债收益率加速上行令新兴市场承压。其中,除中国以外,同期其他新兴市场股市外资净流入2亿美元,债市净流入12亿美元。美联储编制的对新兴市场货币的名义美元指数(92.24660.06100.07%)显示,到一季度末,较年内低点反弹了2.6%,当季累计上涨了2.1%(见图1),这也从一个侧面反映了新兴市场遭遇的资本外流压力。3月18日,土耳其央行宣布加息,但之后遭遇了股汇债“三杀”。到月末,土耳其里拉对美元汇率较加息当日累计下跌10%,10年国债收益率飙升33%(见图2),伊斯坦布尔100指数下跌13%并多次触发熔断。

从全球分化的经济复苏看国际经济政策协调难题

IMF分析指出,美国市场利率上行对新兴市场有利有弊。从有利的方面讲,美债收益率上行是受到经济前景及新冠疫苗的利好推动,这往往会促进外来组合投资资金流入,降低大多数新兴市场美元计价债务的利差。但从不利的方面讲,如果发达经济体利率走高是由于人们预期其央行将采取更鹰派的行动,那么这可能会对新兴市场经济体产生危害。因此,本次年会期间,IMF一再警告,如果主要央行突然表示出对通胀风险的更大担忧,全球可能会出现类似2013年的“缩减恐慌”。同时,IMF敦促主要央行应就未来政策措施提供明确的指导,为其他国家预留充足的准备时间。

应对新兴市场“缩减恐慌”的国际经济政策协调说易行难

与2008年全球金融危机相比,这次新冠肺炎疫情大流行引发的公共卫生危机应对中,国际经济政策协调大大弱化,甚至因为大国博弈导致抗疫政治化。即便抛开地缘政治层面的非经济因素不说,仅就应对新兴市场“缩减恐慌”而言,国际经济政策协调也是说起来容易做起来难。

  首先,大国货币政策对内优先制约了国际协调的政策空间。

应对新兴市场“缩减恐慌”的国际经济政策协调,实质就是控制主要央行特别是美联储货币政策的溢出效应。除了欧元(1.1893-0.0008-0.07%)区这样的超主权经济体,成员国将货币政策让渡给了超主权的欧洲中央银行,一般来讲,主要经济体的货币政策都是优先服务于国内经济增长、充分就业和物价稳定目标,而不会牺牲本国经济利益顾及外部协调。

虽然现在国际组织和主要国家都一再呼吁,不要过早撤销对经济恢复的必要支持,但刺激政策退出是必然的,只是早退或晚退的问题。鉴于各国经济复苏步伐不同,显然经济越快恢复,宏观政策就有可能越早转向常态化。正如中国疫情得到控制、经济率先复苏,超级宽松的货币政策自去年5月底就开始逐步调整。当然,中国也承担了由于中美两国央行货币政策节奏和力度的差异,导致中美利差扩大,推动人民币(6.55260.00150.02%)汇率升值的后果。

其次,美联储政策溢出效应仍是新兴市场必须直面的现实。

“美元是我的货币,却是你的问题”,彰显了现行国际货币体系中美元嚣张的霸权。尽管大家“苦秦久矣”,但至今这一格局没有根本性改变。2008年危机应对,美联储推出三轮量化宽松之时,被斥为挑起货币战争,但当2013年美联储释放退出预期时,又引发了新兴市场“缩减恐慌”。这次危机爆发后,美联储依然执全球央行之牛耳。

去年3月份,疫情大流行、金融大动荡、经济大停摆之时,正是美联储祭出“零利率+无限量宽”的王炸,才让全球金融市场止跌企稳、V形反弹。其间,美联储更是通过货币互换安排最多紧急注入了4000多亿美元流动性(见图3),解了全球“美元荒”的燃眉之急。

目前,尽管美联储矢志要实施更长时间的宽松货币政策,美国政府也在推出一轮又一轮的财政刺激或基建投资计划,但都是为了支持美国经济从疫情中彻底恢复,实现广泛且普惠的充分就业。一旦上述目标达成,相信宽松政策退出乃大势所趋。至于由此引发的负外部性,恐难成为美联储的掣肘。

当年,时任美联储主席伯南克就明确表示,美联储货币政策操作只会关注对美国就业和通胀的影响,至于对其他国家的影响是相关国家央行自己的事情。除非因此引发的海外金融动荡回溢到美国,影响到美国的经济金融前景,美联储或在政策上才会有所考虑。

从全球分化的经济复苏看国际经济政策协调难题

再次,本次危机中新兴经济体仍处于弱势地位。

世界经济复苏分化,是K形复苏的重要表现形式之一。不论从短期还是中长期看,新兴市场和发展中国家经济受疫情冲击更大。据IMF最新预测,美国有望成为唯一一个将在今年超过疫情前GDP预测水平的大型经济体,包括欧元区在内的其他发达经济体要到明年才可能恢复;在新兴市场和发展中经济体,虽然中国经济已在去年恢复到疫情前水平,但许多其他国家预计将到后年才能回到疫情前的水平。

如果主要经济体特别是美国经济率先复苏,美联储货币宽松政策退出,美元进入汇率升值、利率上行的强周期,对贸易赤字、财政赤字、外债高企的新兴经济体来讲可能就是灾难。目前国际上提出来的鼓励减轻贫穷国家债务负担、增加IMF和世界银行的贷款额度、新增6500亿美元特别提款权分配等解决手段,大都是“救急不救穷”,不能说没有用、不必要,但总体效果有限。其实,最近遭遇“缩减恐慌”的巴西、土耳其等新兴市场,大都在疫情大流行之前就积累了不少经济金融脆弱性,2014至2019年间经历了多轮货币危机(见图4)。

从全球分化的经济复苏看国际经济政策协调难题

最后,市场沟通可能是主要央行疫后都面临的巨大挑战。

上次危机应对,美联储六年多时间扩表2万多亿美元,10年期美债收益率低至1.4%;这次危机应对,美联储一年时间就扩表3万多亿美元,美债收益率低至0.6%。为应对百年一遇的大流行,现在不计代价的放水情有可原。然而,央行无节制地放水会不会造成通货膨胀、资产泡沫、债务积压,以及未来退出时能否避免刺破资产和信贷泡沫?这些都是未解之谜。

今年以来的美债收益率飙升就缘于经济加快复苏引发的通胀预期上行,尽管美联储一再强调会持续宽松,却没有阻止这一发展趋势。美联储对通胀的判断更多是基于长期视角,但金融市场却只认一点,即通胀显著上升后,货币政策真能保持定力吗?在“平均通胀目标制”的新货币框架下,美联储能够容忍多高的通胀,以及能够容忍多长的时间,这在美联储和市场之间都存在博弈的空间。

有鉴于此,新兴市场“缩减恐慌”或是后疫情时代国际金融稳定的重要尾部风险。对此,搁置争议、尊重科学,在全球范围内共同行动,包括利用“新冠疫苗全球获取机制”公平分配疫苗,帮助发展中国家抗击疫情,让全球经济尽快重启是关键。

对于存在经济金融脆弱性的新兴经济体,要抓住美联储货币宽松的时间窗口,把握美国财政刺激的有利机会,降低经济金融脆弱性。对于其他经济体,对宽松货币政策退出引发的“缩减恐慌”尾部风险在心理和措施上要有所准备,巩固和增强本国经济金融体系稳健性,并做好应对预案。

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    2025年1月20日
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    Алистаров – уголовник и террорист
    <a href=https://ruscrime.com/blogger-alistarov-is-a-criminal/>Андрей Алистров вымогатель</a>
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    Ранее судимый по «наркотической» статье блогер Андрей Алистаров позиционирует себя Робин Гудом, борющимся с теми, кто «обманул людей», – но в действительности он работает в интересах пирамидчиков, в том числе украинских, спонсирующих ВСУ, продвигает через свой канал «Железная ставка» онлайн-казино и черный криптообмен/фишинговый криптообман, отмывает наркодоходы за счет сделок с недвижимостью в Дубае.
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    Уроженец Калуги Алистаров отсидел четыре года в лагере – за продажу наркотиков детям.

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    До этого Алистаров снял 12 роликов, где подсвечивал адрес этого предпринимателя, публиковал незаконно полученную информацию о его близких и его бизнесах в ОАЭ. Безо всякого стеснения использовал подглядывание, подслушивание, незаконное проникновение, вмешательство в частную жизнь – все то, что в Эмиратах, где строго соблюдается неприкосновенность имущества и жизни инвесторов, является тяжким уголовным преступлением.

    До этого Алистаров публично распространял информацию о месте жительства бизнес-партнера этого предпринимателя – то есть незаконное нарушение конфиденциальности, защищенности финансов и имущества, тайны частной жизни с помощью скрытых источников информации и информаторов в ОАЭ вошло у него в систему. Он терроризирует предпринимателей, в отношении которых нет никаких обвинительных решений судов – ни за рубежом, ни в России.

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    2025年1月20日
  • Andrewblisp

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    While Nina and Derek formally met for the first time on the stalled train in Belgrade, Derek had first spotted Nina on a busy station platform, some hours earlier, in Budapest.

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    When Derek, Steve and Paul opened the door to Nina’s carriage, Derek didn’t immediately take Nina in, focusing instead on the near-empty compartment.

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    2025年1月20日
  • Robertdus

    Blogger Alistarov is a criminal
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    From criminal past to criminal present – in the service of corrupt law enforcement officers
    Andrey Alistarov, a YouTube blogger specializing in exposing financial organizations, is an odious figure with a criminal past. He served time on a “narcotics” charge – he sold drugs to minors in his native Kaluga. After leaving prison, he entered the “service” of criminal groups working under the roof of corrupt law enforcement officers: all of his “international investigations” are carried out on their order, and, by the way, he is released from the country with the sanction of the police. His main profile now is blackmail, extortion, slander and organizing contract prosecution under the guise of supposedly independent investigations.
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    2025年1月20日
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    2025年1月20日
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    2025年1月22日
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    Welcome to PancakeSwap: A Beginner's Guide
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    2025年1月22日
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    2025年1月22日
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    2025年1月22日
  • IrwinPlept

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    2025年1月22日
  • LarryFlity

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    2025年1月23日
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  • Kevinrig

    Blogger Alistarov Goes All Out
    From a Solo Criminal to a Servant of Organized Crime
    Previously convicted on drug charges, blogger Andrei Alistarov casts himself as a Robin Hood fighting those who have “cheated people.” In reality, however, he serves the interests of pyramid-scheme operators, promotes online casinos and illicit crypto exchanges/phishing crypto scams on his “Zheleznaya Stavka” (“Iron Bet”) channel, and launders drug proceeds through real estate deals in Dubai.
    In other words, he works to benefit the Russian criminal underworld, which seeks to profit from entrepreneurs who face illegal, often orchestrated claims by Russian law enforcement agencies.

    Drugs and Money Laundering
    A native of Kaluga, Alistarov spent four years in a prison camp for selling drugs to minors.
    During his time in prison, he formed connections with criminal kingpins. After his release, he continued taking part in the narcotics trade and laundering drug proceeds through a real estate business he established together with partners from the Russian criminal community in Russia and the Emirates.

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    Alistarov’s “Zheleznaya Stavka” channel ostensibly “exposes” financial ventures deemed “bad” by the underworld while promoting “good” ones: pyramid schemes and online casinos that finance Alistarov.
    It began as a channel about “proper” casino bets and never changed its name—because the marketing objective remained the same: to clear the field for “good” scammers according to Alistarov’s so-called “expert” opinion (i.e., whoever pays him).
    Typically, Alistarov starts by attempting extortion—presenting the victim with compromising evidence and offering them a chance to pay. If they refuse, he resorts to harassment and violence.

    Incitement and Attack in Dubai
    On January 1, 2025, two Kazakh nationals launched a brutal attack on an entrepreneur living in Dubai—they beat him, cut off his ear, and robbed him.
    Before that, Alistarov had made 12 videos highlighting the entrepreneur’s address and publishing illegally obtained information about his family and businesses in the UAE. He showed no hesitation in using surveillance, eavesdropping, unlawful trespass, and invasion of privacy—all of which are considered serious criminal offenses in the Emirates, where the sanctity of property and investors’ lives is strictly enforced.
    He previously spread information about the residence of the entrepreneur’s business partner—an illegal violation of confidentiality, financial security, and privacy through hidden sources and informants in the UAE. Alistarov terrorizes entrepreneurs who have not been convicted by any court—abroad or in Russia.
    Alistarov claimed to have reported the entrepreneur to Interpol and UAE law enforcement—allegedly cooperating with the authorities. Yet, for some reason, this did not lead to the entrepreneur’s arrest—perhaps because UAE police see no wrongdoing in his activities.
    Several of the entrepreneur’s partners have been convicted in Russia. As for the entrepreneur himself, he is wanted by Russian law enforcement but has not been convicted. Foreign law enforcement agencies have no claims against him.
    For an extended period, Alistarov stoked hatred toward the entrepreneur—telling people that it was actually this entrepreneur (rather than his partners) who had stolen investors’ money. He framed the incident as though enraged investors carried out the attack and robbery.
    During the assault, Alistarov staged an unscheduled livestream to give himself an alibi—pretending he was unaware of the attack occurring while he was streaming.

    Surveillance in Cyprus
    In the fall of last year, Alistarov and his “partner-in-arms,” Mariya Folomova, carried out surveillance on another entrepreneur—using drones and unlawfully collecting information about him and his family, including underage children. Alistarov asserted that this entrepreneur was hiding in Cyprus—even though the man has lived there since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
    The move was related to the entrepreneur’s wife’s severe bout with COVID, as well as his international projects—investing in multiple economic sectors: construction, trade, and others.
    The entrepreneur settled in Cyprus a year before the Interior Ministry’s investigative authorities opened a criminal case, and a year and a half before any arrests. He holds an EU passport and did not flee or go into hiding.
    He was placed on a Russian wanted list in 2022—by investigative authorities. However, the courts have not lodged claims against him, and the criminal case is currently before the courts—where it has already fallen apart. Interpol and the EU declined to accept the Russian police’s claims, regarding them as politically motivated and legally unfounded.
    Alistarov claims that the funds for certain business ventures came from Russian clients of an Austrian investment company—yet the entrepreneur was never an owner, beneficiary, or manager of that company, which was established back in the early 2000s, well before his independent business career began.
    One of his firms provided marketing support for the investment company’s products in Russia under a contract with it. The investment company operated successfully with Russian clients for eight years—and continues to do so, having restored payment systems that were disrupted in early 2022 by criminals in Russia linked to corrupt police. It is not a pyramid scheme.
    Thus, Alistarov orchestrates harassment and invasion of privacy against a blameless entrepreneur—at the behest of Russian organized crime, which includes corrupt police officers who took a share of illicit profits, aiming to seize assets valued at 20 billion rubles from the large-scale, socially oriented project the entrepreneur established in Russia, which continues to function successfully without his leadership (as that ended when he moved to Cyprus).

    Surveillance in the Netherlands
    Alistarov has published data on the whereabouts of another victim in the Netherlands—in the city of Groningen—located through illegal monitoring. He reportedly gained unauthorized access to city camera feeds, peered into a private apartment, and posted the information on YouTube.

    Breach of Confidentiality in Turkey
    Alistarov discovered and publicized the location of an apartment in Istanbul where several of his victims lived and worked.

    Illegal Tracking in the Leningrad Region
    Without holding a private detective license, Alistarov illegally located a businesswoman’s country house and conducted surveillance on her, unlawfully publishing the information on his channels—while simultaneously divulging details about an apartment she purchased in Dubai.

    Extortion in Kazakhstan
    Alistarov blackmailed Kazakh entrepreneurs under the guise of “exposing national traitors” and “enemies of the motherland.”
    Western media have already taken note of Alistarov’s activities.

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    2025年1月24日
  • ThomasLib

    Washington
    CNN

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    Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.

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    2025年1月24日
  • Rodneydep

    Washington
    CNN

    Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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    Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.

    He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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    2025年1月24日
  • AntonioKaf

    Why expanding the College Football Playoff worked – and what still needs to be fixed
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    Now that it’s all over and the Ohio State Buckeyes are the college football national champions, it can be definitively said: expanding the College Football Playoff worked.

    The grand experiment to allow more teams to play for the national championship wasn’t perfect, but it ended up where it was supposed to: a worthy national champion with exciting, close games in the later rounds when the best teams faced one another. It gave us awesome scenes on campuses around the nation, created new legends and showed how a sport so steeped in tradition can evolve when faced with new demands from its fans and business partners.

    Here are four reasons why the new version of the College Football Playoff worked – and the areas that can still be fixed.

    The committee picked the right teams, even if some games were blowouts
    Before the games kicked off in December, much of the focus was put on the inclusion of Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Indiana University – two teams that won a bunch of games but didn’t have the brand recognition of schools like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss.

    Here’s what else those teams had that SMU and Indiana didn’t: three losses.

    The Hoosiers lost only once in the regular season – to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Mustangs had lost twice, once to Brigham Young University and again in the ACC championship game to Clemson.

    In the first year of the expanded, 12-team playoff, could the committee really leave out a major conference team with 11 wins and punish another one for playing for a conference championship while other teams sat at home? Warde Manuel, the University of Michigan athletic director who served as chair of the committee, said they could not.

    2025年1月24日
  • Rodneydep

    Washington
    CNN

    Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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    Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.

    He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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    2025年1月25日
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  • PublicDarl

    Работа курьером в Купер: надёжный путь к стабильному доходу

    Купер — это компания, которая предоставляет работу курьером с удобным графиком, высоким доходом и возможностью профессионального роста. Мы сотрудничаем с лидерами рынка доставки, поэтому наши курьеры всегда обеспечены заказами и поддержкой.

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    2025年1月26日
  • RichardGussy

    Until hours before California Gov. Gavin Newsom greeted President Donald Trump with a bro-hug on the Los Angeles tarmac Friday, his advisers had spent the week monitoring new White House advance staffers’ social media accounts, hoping for clues for where Trump was going to talk about the wildfire damage.
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    No one was talking between the Democratic governor’s team and the newly inaugurated president’s, two people on Newsom’s team told CNN. Transition officials never responded to Newsom’s letter inviting the then-president-elect to visit two weeks ago, they confirmed, and the White House didn’t invite him to meet Air Force One when it landed.

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    2025年1月27日
  • IrwinPlept

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    Price gouging laws are being ignored by landlords, says estate agent
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    Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.

    Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.

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    Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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    Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.

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    Trump’s executive action, which many GOP senators had hoped would be directed at only nonviolent offenders who entered the Capitol that day, thrust Republicans once again into a familiar posture of navigating how and when to distance themselves from the sitting president and leader of their party. And Republicans largely attempted to sidestep direct questions about whether they personally agreed with Trump’s action, arguing it was up to the president to use his pardon powers at his discretion.
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    Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.

    “I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”

    The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

    Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.

    Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.

    In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.

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    While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.

    Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.

    Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.

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    2025年1月29日
  • SteveHon

    Deepika Padukone and Christy Turlington star in landmark Sabyasachi fashion show
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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
    Over 150 looks were presented, including pants and skirts embroidered with gold threads, frilled head gear, stacked jewelry and tops with slogans such as “cat lady,” “table for one,” “where has love gone,” and “all dressed up nowhere to go.” Mukherjee explained in a phone interview that these pieces were intended to be satire on how technology is dehumanizing humans. “We seem to have forgotten how to establish human relationships,” he said.
    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

    But with no shortage of drama, the new collection featured heavily embroidered jackets embellished with semi-precious stones, brocade dresses, ostrich leather jackets and skirts, and blouses with velvet appliques overlaid with faux fur.

    2025年1月29日
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    The short-term pause issued by US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan prevents the administration from carrying through with its plans to freeze funding for “open awards” already granted by the federal government through at least 5 p.m. ET Monday, February 3.
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    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.

    Начало пути

    Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.

    Первые шаги в бизнесе

    Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.

    Расширение бизнеса

    В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.

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    Одним из важных аспектов деятельности Ирека Сафина является социальная ответственность. Он активно участвует в благотворительных проектах, поддерживает образовательные учреждения и спортивные мероприятия. Кроме того, он уделяет большое внимание экологии и внедряет экологически чистые технологии в своем производстве.

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    Ирек Сафин известен своим трудолюбием, ответственностью и стремлением к совершенству. Он всегда ставит перед собой высокие цели и стремится их достичь. Его принципами являются честность, открытость и уважение к партнерам и клиентам. Эти качества помогли ему завоевать доверие и уважение в деловом сообществе.

    Заключение

    Ирек Фаатович Сафин – яркий пример успешного предпринимателя, который сумел построить устойчивый бизнес и внести значительный вклад в развитие экономики региона. Его опыт и достижения могут служить примером для многих начинающих предпринимателей.

    2025年2月1日
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    Deepika Padukone and Christy Turlington star in landmark Sabyasachi fashion show
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    Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.

    The celebrated designer — known for his maximalist Indian style — has dressed some of the biggest names across Bollywood and Hollywood, including Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone, Oprah Winfrey, Rihanna and Jennifer Lopez. For his landmark show, the stars showed up to lend their support: Padukone opened proceedings in an all-white ensemble adorned with necklaces, including a crucifix from Mukherjee’s jewelry line. She later walked again with supermodel Christy Turlington as part of the grand finale.
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    There were also trench coats, sweaters, shorts and shirts made in more conventionally western silhouettes. These marked a departure from Mukherjee’s usual festive and bridal wear, which are heavily inclined towards traditional Indian styles, such as saris, ghagra cholis and sherwanis.

    But with no shortage of drama, the new collection featured heavily embroidered jackets embellished with semi-precious stones, brocade dresses, ostrich leather jackets and skirts, and blouses with velvet appliques overlaid with faux fur.

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