在美联储本周即将召开货币政策会议之际。经济学家们预测认为，美联储有望在今年年底之前开始削减每个月高达1200亿美元的资产购买计划（QE）。
彭博调查显示，约有45%的经济学家预计，联邦公开市场委员会将在第四季度宣布缩表，14%的经济学家认为这将在第三季发生。整体调查结果基调较3月份时偏鹰，当时较多受访者认为缩表是2022年才会发生。
超过三分之二的受调查经济学家预计，美联储将在今年发出缩减购债规模的早期预警信号，其中预计在7—9月发出信号的人数最多（45%）。具体场合可能来自7月或9月的联邦公开市场委员会会议，或者鲍威尔对国会的半年度证词。8月底举行的年度杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会也是传递信号的可能场合。
大多数经济学家预计，整个债券购买计划退出时间将持续7—12个月左右。
在加息问题上，经济学家们普遍预计，美联储要到2023年才会提高利率。这一时间点较此前3月调查有所提前。调查中位数显示，到2023年底，美国联邦基准利率可能上升50个基点至0.75%，到2024年底，利率将上升至1.25%．
美联储新的货币政策会议将于当地时间本周三结束。市场普遍预计，美联储将重申将在美国经济实现就业和通胀目标方面“取得实质性进一步进展”后，才会调整购买量的计划。
在利率方面，市场普遍认为美联储不会上调利率。经济学家们表示将仔细观察美联储主席罗杰斯在新闻发布会上的具体措辞，以了解是否存在QE可能逐渐减码的暗示。
鲍威尔此前经表示，当美联储委员会认为其货币政策目标即将达成时，他将在这种变化发生之前就警告市场，且政策的变化将取决于未来实际的经济报告，而不仅仅是看好的预测。
Mirabaud Asset Management首席经济学家Gero Jung表示，鉴于美联储坚持将重点放在实质的经济数据上，今年启动缩表可能为时尚早。美联储可能希望看到一系列非常正面的数据，就像3月份的就业数据，然后再开始启动缩表程序。
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