美国4月通胀指标上行趋势超过市场预期，亦超过基数效应。在近期大宗商品价格重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，由美国通胀指标出发，我们对未来一年CPI和PCE走势进行研判，继而进一步思考，美联储面对通胀指标的蹿升会做何选择。
1、 美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升？从4月CPI分项数据看，美国经济重启时出现了“暂时性”的需求激增，如食品饮料和交通出行的需求更快上升。其中，二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，为指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，这一分项对CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。二手车价格急涨的原因多为“暂时性”的：1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出，而2020年疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减了新车的购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。3）社交距离增加二手车需求。4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。
2、 美国CPI走势研判。定性判断：5月二手车价格涨幅或趋缓，能源品和服务价格有望进一步上涨，5月CPI环比可能还会为正，但增速大概率小于4月。定量测算，预计5月美国CPI同比为4.4%左右，2021全年CPI同比增速为3.2%。但在2022年摆脱基数效应后，美国CPI同比增速有望回归2%附近，预计2022年一季度CPI同比为2.4%。
3、 美国CPI与PCE的相关性。PCE是美联储更为关注的通胀指标。美国PCE与CPI走势有较高同步性，但PCE的波动性通常小于CPI，且通常PCE月同比增速更低。背后原因：1）公式效应。PCE的测算方法比CPI多考虑了价格变化后商品之间的替代效应。2）权重效应。例如，住房在PCE中的权重要显著小于CPI。据2019年以来的数据，“权重效应”是PCE与CPI走势有别的主要因素，它使PCE波动小于CPI，即权重效应在CPI走高时一定程度上将抑制PCE走得过高。3）范围效应。例如，由雇主提供的保险、政府医疗保险等，仅包含在PCE中。4）其他效应。PCE和CPI的季节性调整方法有别。
4、 美国PCE走势研判。历史上当CPI冲高时，2000年以来的CPI数据对PCE有较强的预测能力。综合考虑基数效应以及CPI与PCE的相关性，我们预测，2021年4月PCE同比值在3.0-3.3%区间，5月PCE同比在3.0-3.5%区间，2021年PCE同比值为2.4-2.6%区间，2022年一季度PCE同比有望回落至2%附近或以下。
5、 对美国通胀走势与美联储政策的思考。有很多因素支撑美联储判断通胀只是“暂时的”，我们补充四个重要的思考维度。一是，对于本轮大宗商品周期的判断。二是，国际贸易对物价的平抑作用。三是，美国财政刺激效果的持续性。四是，美联储的施政策略。（按照美联储由“淡定”到“慌张”排序）至少有五类情形均可能使美联储（至少对外表现出）漠视通胀：1）美联储明确认为通胀压力将是暂时的。2）（较大可能）美联储不确定通胀是否是暂时的，选择“按兵不动”，待作进一步观察和分析。3）（较大可能）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但认为保就业比防通胀更重要，无奈选择“按兵不动”。4）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但不想背财政刺激过度的“锅”。5）美联储判断通胀风险较大，但稍显“违心”地安抚市场，暗地里可能已经（或很快将）开始讨论缩减QE。如果美联储维持鸽派，那么短期风险资产可能仍会表现积极，演绎“今朝有酒今朝醉”。但市场的猜疑很可能升温，未来美联储与市场沟通的难度很大，市场或容易将对美联储政策预期调整得更加“保守”（即预判美联储政策转向提前）。因此，未来1-2个月市场经历波动和调整的风险可能加大。
风险提示：美国经济数据超预期，美国通胀走势超预期，美联储政策转向超预期等。
2021年5月12-13日，美国CPI和PPI数据相继出炉，涨势均超市场预期。5月12日CPI公布后引发市场剧烈波动，美股三大股指均跌2%以上，标普500波动率指数（VIX）创近两个月以来新高，10年美债收益率跃升5bp至1.69%。CPI指标公布后，美联储多位官员紧急发言稳定市场情绪，继续看淡通胀风险。5月13-14日市场恐慌情绪似乎很快消退，10年美债收益率回落至1.63%。
诚然，当前美国通胀指标上行超过市场预期、亦超过基数效应。而且，在近期大宗商品重启涨势的背景下，市场对于美国通胀的担忧进一步加剧，对于美联储“误判”通胀的担忧亦有显现。但这是否意味着，美国通胀水平将持续走高、美联储是否会迫于无奈而“出手”？
我们尝试尽量抛开“热通胀”的直观感受，进行一系列“冷思考”：由美国通胀指标出发（因PPI的关注度与信息量有限，我们主要对CPI和PCE进行讨论），美国4月CPI具体缘何升高、能否持续？美国CPI与美联储更为关注的通胀指标PCE（个人消费支出指数）的相关性如何？美联储将如何应对通胀指标的升高？
一、美国4月CPI解读及CPI走势研判
1、美国4月CPI指标缘何蹿升：二手车涨价背后的故事
美国4月CPI 同比4.2%，为2008年9月以来最高增速；环比0.8%，市场预期为0.2%。4月核心CPI同比3.0%；环比0.9%，市场预期为0.3%。整体看，4月美国CPI以及核心CPI增速都大幅超过市场预期。2021年1-4月，美国CPI环比增速分别为0.3%、0.4%、0.6%和0.8%，平均为0.5%，而2015-2019年、2016-2019年CPI月均环比分别仅为0.15%、0.18%。可见，2021年美国CPI蹿升的原因不只基数效应那么简单。
4月美国CPI分项表现呈现三大特点：
一是，二手车涨价为主要拉动。二手车和卡车指数环比升10%，这是1953年CPI指数生成以来的最大月度涨幅，前值仅0.5%，这一分项对4月CPI总指数的拉动超过1/3。二手车价格对商品分项乃至核心CPI形成显著拉动。
美国二手车价格为何急涨？多为疫情后“暂时性”的供需矛盾。1）租车公司的二手车供应不足。美国租车公司的新车一般会在一年后（或更短时间内）作为二手车被卖出。而2020年新冠疫情迫使租车公司大幅削减新车购买，导致目前进入市场的二手车数量锐减。2）近期芯片短缺间接影响二手车供应。芯片短缺使新车制造速度放缓，继而二手车更迭速度也放缓，投放到市场的二手车更加有限。3）社交距离增加二手车需求。疫情后大量居民减少公共交通出行、远程办工、迁居郊区等，对二手车的需求上升。4）经济风险、消费降级增加二手车需求。为了在经济形势不稳定的时期省钱，尤其是在新车和卡车价格处于历史高位的情况下，美国居民倾向于选择二手车。
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Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.
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Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.
An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.
The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.
And thus, the Minor Planet Center logged a new object, asteroid “2018 CN41.”
Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.
The person who originally flagged the object realized their own error, MPC astronomer Peter Veres told CNN, noticing that they had, in fact, found several uncorrelated observations of Musk’s car. And the center’s systems hadn’t caught the error.
Astronomers briefly thought Elon Musk’s car was an asteroid. Here’s why that points to a broader problem
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Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.
Observers spotted and correctly identified the vehicle as it started its extraterrestrial excursion in February 2018 — after it had blasted off into space during the Falcon Heavy rocket’s splashy maiden launch. But more recently, the car spawned a high-profile case of mistaken identity as space observers mistook it for an asteroid.
Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.
An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.
The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.
And thus, the Minor Planet Center logged a new object, asteroid “2018 CN41.”
Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.
The person who originally flagged the object realized their own error, MPC astronomer Peter Veres told CNN, noticing that they had, in fact, found several uncorrelated observations of Musk’s car. And the center’s systems hadn’t caught the error.
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Astronomers briefly thought Elon Musk’s car was an asteroid. Here’s why that points to a broader problem
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Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.
Observers spotted and correctly identified the vehicle as it started its extraterrestrial excursion in February 2018 — after it had blasted off into space during the Falcon Heavy rocket’s splashy maiden launch. But more recently, the car spawned a high-profile case of mistaken identity as space observers mistook it for an asteroid.
Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.
An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.
The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.
And thus, the Minor Planet Center logged a new object, asteroid “2018 CN41.”
Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.
The person who originally flagged the object realized their own error, MPC astronomer Peter Veres told CNN, noticing that they had, in fact, found several uncorrelated observations of Musk’s car. And the center’s systems hadn’t caught the error.
Astronomers briefly thought Elon Musk’s car was an asteroid. Here’s why that points to a broader problem
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Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.
Observers spotted and correctly identified the vehicle as it started its extraterrestrial excursion in February 2018 — after it had blasted off into space during the Falcon Heavy rocket’s splashy maiden launch. But more recently, the car spawned a high-profile case of mistaken identity as space observers mistook it for an asteroid.
Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.
An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.
The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.
And thus, the Minor Planet Center logged a new object, asteroid “2018 CN41.”
Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.
The person who originally flagged the object realized their own error, MPC astronomer Peter Veres told CNN, noticing that they had, in fact, found several uncorrelated observations of Musk’s car. And the center’s systems hadn’t caught the error.
Astronomers briefly thought Elon Musk’s car was an asteroid. Here’s why that points to a broader problem
<a href=https://kra27c.cc>sкракен вход</a>
Seven years after SpaceX launched Elon Musk’s cherry red sports car into orbit around our sun, astronomers unwittingly began paying attention to its movements once again.
Observers spotted and correctly identified the vehicle as it started its extraterrestrial excursion in February 2018 — after it had blasted off into space during the Falcon Heavy rocket’s splashy maiden launch. But more recently, the car spawned a high-profile case of mistaken identity as space observers mistook it for an asteroid.
Several observations of the vehicle, gathered by sweeping surveys of the night sky, were inadvertently stashed away in a database meant for miscellaneous and unknown objects, according to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center.
An amateur astronomer noticed a string of data points in January that appeared to fit together, describing the orbit of a relatively small object that was swooping between the orbital paths of Earth and Mars.
The citizen scientist assumed the mystery object was an undocumented asteroid and promptly sent his findings to the MPC, which operates at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as a clearinghouse that seeks to catalog all known asteroids, comets and other small celestial bodies. An astronomer there verified the finding.
And thus, the Minor Planet Center logged a new object, asteroid “2018 CN41.”
Within 24 hours, however, the center retracted the designation.
The person who originally flagged the object realized their own error, MPC astronomer Peter Veres told CNN, noticing that they had, in fact, found several uncorrelated observations of Musk’s car. And the center’s systems hadn’t caught the error.
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Now that it’s all over and the Ohio State Buckeyes are the college football national champions, it can be definitively said: expanding the College Football Playoff worked.
The grand experiment to allow more teams to play for the national championship wasn’t perfect, but it ended up where it was supposed to: a worthy national champion with exciting, close games in the later rounds when the best teams faced one another. It gave us awesome scenes on campuses around the nation, created new legends and showed how a sport so steeped in tradition can evolve when faced with new demands from its fans and business partners.
Here are four reasons why the new version of the College Football Playoff worked – and the areas that can still be fixed.
The committee picked the right teams, even if some games were blowouts
Before the games kicked off in December, much of the focus was put on the inclusion of Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Indiana University – two teams that won a bunch of games but didn’t have the brand recognition of schools like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss.
Here’s what else those teams had that SMU and Indiana didn’t: three losses.
The Hoosiers lost only once in the regular season – to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Mustangs had lost twice, once to Brigham Young University and again in the ACC championship game to Clemson.
In the first year of the expanded, 12-team playoff, could the committee really leave out a major conference team with 11 wins and punish another one for playing for a conference championship while other teams sat at home? Warde Manuel, the University of Michigan athletic director who served as chair of the committee, said they could not.
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Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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Members of the M23 armed troupe shamble alongside residents through a concourse of the Keshero neighborhood in Goma, on Monday. AFP/Getty Images
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While Trump craves political glory, Zelensky is fighting for something far more profound: his country’s survival, now and as a future viable, independent sovereign state. Trump’s decision to open talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday without Ukraine raised fears he’s targeting a quick agreement with Putin that he’d then impose on Kyiv.
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Zelensky understands that he can’t count on US support with Trump in the White House and said last week it was time to form a European army because, “the old days are over when America supported Europe just because it always had.”
Trump has given few signs that he’s got Ukraine’s interests at heart. Last week, for instance, he echoed one of Putin’s rationales for the war, saying that Ukraine’s NATO aspirations helped trigger Russia’s invasion.
This new US empathy with the invader, rather than the invaded party, is why Europe’s participation in peace talks is necessary to even the playing field. But Trump is already looking beyond Zelensky, who was the recipient of the telephone call that led to Trump’s first impeachment in his first term. He said last week that Ukraine needs elections “at some point” after a peace deal and archly noted that Zelensky’s poll numbers were “not great.” This is another Russian talking point that Trump has picked up — even though the idea that Putin, who sustains his long rule with sham elections, has any credibility in talking about elections is absurd.
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By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
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Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!
Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
New York
CNN
—
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Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
But over a week into his presidency, Trump has yet to enact any new tariffs.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.
Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
<a href=https://lucky-jetts.com>лаки джет играть</a>
Об игре
Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.
Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.
Актуальные бонусные предложения
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Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
Еженедельные акции и фриспины
Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
Кэшбэк до 10%
Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!
Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!
Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:
Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!
Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
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Об игре
Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.
Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.
Актуальные бонусные предложения
Бонус 500% на первый депозит
Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
Еженедельные акции и фриспины
Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
Кэшбэк до 10%
Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!
Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!
Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:
Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!
‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.
Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
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Об игре
Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.
Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.
Актуальные бонусные предложения
Бонус 500% на первый депозит
Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
Еженедельные акции и фриспины
Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
Кэшбэк до 10%
Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!
Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!
Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
Готовы испытать удачу и выиграть по-крупному? Следуйте этим простым шагам:
Зарегистрируйтесь на официальном сайте 1win. Процесс регистрации занимает всего пару минут.
Пополните счет удобным для вас способом: банковской картой, электронными кошельками или даже криптовалютой.
Откройте Lucky Jet в разделе казино и приготовьтесь к динамичному игровому процессу.
Сделайте ставку и следите за ростом коэффициента. Чем выше он поднимается – тем больше ваш потенциальный выигрыш.
Выведите выигрыш до того, как Lucky Jet взлетит! Главное – не жадничать и вовремя остановиться, иначе ставка сгорит.
Используйте стратегии, анализируйте предыдущие раунды и комбинируйте ставки, чтобы увеличить свои шансы на победу!
‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
<a href=https://kra27c.cc>кракен даркнет</a>
By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.
Lucky Jet – твой шанс на большие выигрыши!
Попробуй захватывающую краш-игру прямо сейчас! Регистрируйся и получи бонус до 500% на первый депозит с промокодом: LuckyJetTeam.
<a href=https://lucky-jetts.com>лаки джет играть</a>
Об игре
Lucky Jet — это не просто игра, а захватывающее приключение, в котором каждый момент может стать решающим! Эта краш-игра бросает вызов вашим инстинктам и способности быстро принимать решения. В основе игры — динамичная механика, где игроки ставят на рост коэффициента, но задача не в том, чтобы ждать до последнего, а вовремя вывести свой выигрыш, прежде чем персонаж взлетит слишком высоко и случится крах.
Чем выше коэффициент, тем более значительная награда! Но не забывайте: в этом азартном путешествии важен каждый момент, ведь именно ваше решение о выводе решит, насколько велик будет ваш выигрыш. Это не просто игра, а настоящее испытание на скорость и удачу! Простые правила, быстрые раунды и реальные выигрыши – вот почему игроки выбирают Lucky Jet.
Бонусы и промокоды в Lucky Jet
В Lucky Jet вас ждут щедрые бонусы и эксклюзивные промокоды, которые помогут увеличить ваш баланс и продлить удовольствие от игры! Мы ценим активных игроков и регулярно запускаем новые акции, чтобы сделать ваш игровой процесс еще выгоднее.
Актуальные бонусные предложения
Бонус 500% на первый депозит
Используйте промокод LuckyJetTeam при пополнении счета и получите увеличение депозита в 5 раз! Это отличная возможность начать игру с солидным запасом.
Еженедельные акции и фриспины
Чем больше вы играете, тем больше подарков получаете! Участвуйте в регулярных промо-акциях и получайте фриспины, бонусные деньги и дополнительные награды за активность.
Кэшбэк до 10%
Проиграли? Не беда! В Lucky Jet вы можете вернуть часть потерянных средств благодаря системе кэшбэка. Еженедельно вам будет начисляться до 10% возврата от проигранных ставок.
Следите за новыми акциями! Мы постоянно обновляем бонусные предложения, поэтому не упустите возможность воспользоваться самыми выгодными промо. Подписывайтесь на новости и следите за актуальными акциями, чтобы всегда быть в выигрыше!
Используйте бонусы и повышайте свои шансы на победу в Lucky Jet!
Как начать играть в Lucky Jet
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‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
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By his own admission, James Crombie knew “very, very little” about starlings before Covid-19 struck. An award-winning sports photographer by trade, his only previous encounter with the short-tailed birds occurred when one fell into his fireplace after attempting to nest in the chimney of his home in the Irish Midlands.
“I always had too much going on with sport to think about wildlife,” said Crombie, who has covered three Olympic Games and usually shoots rugby and the Irish game of hurling, in a Zoom interview.
With the pandemic bringing major events to a halt, however, the photographer found himself at a loose end. So, when a recently bereaved friend proposed visiting a nearby lake to see flocks of starlings in flight (known as murmurations), Crombie brought along his camera — one that was conveniently well-suited to the job.
“You get one split second,” he said of the similarities between sport and nature photography. “They’re both shot at relatively high speeds and they’re both shot with equipment that can handle that.”
On that first evening, in late 2020, they saw around 100 starlings take to the sky before roosting at dusk. The pair returned to the lake — Lough Ennell in Ireland’s County Westmeath — over successive nights, choosing different vantage points from which to view the birds. The routine became a form of therapy for his grieving friend and a source of fascination for Crombie.
“It started to become a bit of an obsession,” recalled the photographer, who recently published a book of his starling images. “And every night that we went down, we learned a little bit more. We realized where we had to be and where (the starlings) were going to be. It just started to snowball from there.”
‘I’ve got something special here’
Scientists do not know exactly why starlings form murmurations, though they are thought to offer collective protection against predators, such as falcons. The phenomenon can last from just a few seconds to 45 minutes, sometimes involving tens of thousands of individual birds. In Ireland, starlings’ numbers are boosted during winter, as migrating flocks arrive from breeding grounds around Western Europe and Scandinavia.
Crombie often saw the birds form patterns and abstract shapes, their varying densities appearing like the subtle gradations of paint strokes. The photographer became convinced that, with enough patience, he could capture a recognizable shape.
Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
New York
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Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
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Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
New York
CNN
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Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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”To be a Freemason is to be part of a brotherhood dedicated to personal growth, service to others, and the pursuit of knowledge and truth,” the lodge wrote. Biden’s service, the statement added, “reflects the core values” of this brotherhood.
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Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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”To be a Freemason is to be part of a brotherhood dedicated to personal growth, service to others, and the pursuit of knowledge and truth,” the lodge wrote. Biden’s service, the statement added, “reflects the core values” of this brotherhood.
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