
5、6月中国PPI或将继续面临上行压力。
美国东部时间5月20日,美联储公布4月会议纪要。会议纪要显示,部分联邦公开市场委员会(the Federal Open Market Committee)委员认为,如果美国经济继续朝着两大目标快速前进,那么在未来某次会议中开始讨论调整美联储资产购买步伐的计划“可能是合适的”。这是疫情在美国暴发以来,美联储官员首次讨论收紧货币政策立场的可能性。
事实上,在强劲的通胀数据影响之下,市场对美联储收紧货币政策的预期不断攀升。5月11日公布的中国PPI数据再次超出预期,5月13日和14日,美国的CPI和PPI数据也超出市场预期。在大宗商品涨价潮的持续助推下,全球性的通胀似乎近在眼前。
那么,全球通胀是否已经不可避免?面对节节攀升的通胀预期,全球主要央行“大放水”的时代是否即将终结?中国又该如何防范输入性通胀风险?21世纪经济报道记者独家专访中信证券研究所副所长、首席FICC分析师明明,就上述问题进行一一解答。
全球市场对通胀关注度不断上升
《21世纪》:近期国际和国内市场对通胀的关注都在不断地加剧。这背后的主要原因是什么?
明明:实际上在2008年金融危机之后,长达10多年的时间里,大家更关注的问题是全球低通胀甚至是通缩的问题,这其中核心问题是全球有效需求不足以及产能过剩。因此,尽管在2008年之后,以发达国家为主的全球央行不断地进行货币宽松,对全球经济进行刺激,但是实际上在疫情之前我们发现通胀反而是越来越低的,甚至有些国家进入长期的低通胀,甚至负通胀,所以对应地进入了一个零利率甚至负利率的时代。
那么疫情以来,特别是今年以来,通胀的压力在提升。
从需求端来看,在去年新冠疫情暴发之后,很多国家陷入了疫情的影响,并采取了一系列有效的措施去控制疫情。但是这些措施都会使得需求受到影响,比如出行需求,旅游、商务出行等的需求都会受到影响,所以需求被暂时地压抑。但是今年以来随着新冠疫情在全球范围整体得到有效的控制,需求实际上出现一个爆发式的回升。同时,去年以来,全球的主要国家,特别是以美国为首的发达国家,推出了一系列强力的刺激政策。比如美国政府推出了号称是无限量QE(量化宽松)的政策,这种货币宽松的力度甚至比2008年金融危机之后的刺激力度还要强得多。
因此,一方面是疫情对于需求的冲击是一次性的,那么在疫情得到控制之后,大家的这种正常的生活需求本身就有一个集中式的爆发和回补。另一方面,在全球自去年以来大规模的货币、财政刺激的背景之下,需求本身也有一个扩张。综上,我们看到的结果就是需求并不差,而且今年以来实际上需求还是比较强的。
从供给端来看,疫情对于供给的冲击反而持续的时间会更长。企业的生产实际上是很复杂的一个过程,不是说今天疫情得到控制,明天就可以开工生产,特别是在现在全球整个产业链高度发展的背景之下,任何生产都不是一个国家、一个企业能够解决的,都是上下游产业链共同生产的一个过程。
今年还有一个特点,就是疫情在不同国家的发生和发展出现了不均衡。有的国家控制得比较好,比如去年我们国家是疫情得到最先控制的,今年主要的发达国家也初步得到控制。但是目前来看,以印度为首的部分新兴市场国家反而疫情有加剧的可能性。因此,我们可以看到在不同的国家,疫情的发展程度不一样。
《21世纪》:印度其实在全球供应链中占据相当重要的位置。那么此次印度的疫情对全球产业链是否有影响?
明明:印度是主要的生产国,因此印度的疫情使得整个产业链受到了扰动。我提出一点,疫情对于供给的扰动可能是一个持续性的影响。而且,这两年可能还有一个大的宏观背景是全球产业链的重构,包括美国在内的一些发达国家都要求制造业回流本土。此外,一些企业的产业链实际上也在做一些新的布置和安排,比如前一段时间全球芯片的短缺等问题都对供给形成了扰动。
我们看到目前的一个情况,就是在疫情后的宏观经济和疫情前过去10年的宏观经济出现了比较大的不同。虽然刚才我们说一些中长期压制需求的因素,如人口问题、老龄化问题、收入格局问题,短期都得不到解决,但是短期的供需缺口可能出现了变化。
所以,现在从过去的供大于求的格局变成了供不应求的格局。这实际上是推升全球通胀的一个基本的宏观经济预期,也是对于我们理解目前通胀的讨论的一个比较好的宏观背景。
5、6月中国PPI或将继续面临上行压力
《21世纪》:5月11日,中国率先公布4月CPI和PPI数据,在大宗商品暴涨的背景下,4月PPI同比上涨6.8%,创2017年10月以来的新高,4月CPI同比上涨0.9%,连续第二个月走高。此外4月非食品CPI同比涨幅也从3月的0.7%升至1.3%。你认为PPI是否已经出现向CPI传导的迹象?
明明:从国内的通胀数据来看,4月的通胀数据实际上是比较超预期的。4月PPI同比上涨6.8%,明显是高于预期。实际上我们可以跟历史的均值来比,6.8%基本上是属于历史的分位数大概百分之七八十的水平。近年来, PPI比较高的一个时段大概是在2016和2017年,当时正处于供给侧改革的宏观背景之下,PPI最高的位置大概是7%到8%的水平。
我们看到4月的 PPI已经接近7%,而且目前来看,在基数、轻涨价的原因等等一切的因素影响下,有可能5、6月的PPI还有上行的压力,所以PPI是比较高的。另外一方面,4月CPI同比其实并不高——0.9%。但是其实已经连续几个月上升,而且需要关注的是非食品CPI实际上在4月的涨幅也是比较多的,从3月份的0.7%涨到了1.3%。那么PPI有没有向CPI传导呢?我们看到PPI是比较高的——6.8%,CPI才百分之零点几,还不到1%,我觉得可能有一定传导的迹象,但传导是不均衡的。首先我们要看到PPI从上游向下游传导是要根据不同的行业来判断的,因为上游企业生产是比较集中的,如煤炭钢铁主要都是一些大型企业。但是下游企业,如消费品企业、汽车零售,都是一个竞争比较激烈的市场、比较分散的市场。所以相对来说,上游的企业提价或受到成本的冲击,由于全球需求的提升,它的涨价可能是会比较迅速的。但是下游企业因为面对着很强的市场竞争压力,所以它的提价是比较困难的。但是,从4月份的CPI数据里还是能够发现一些蛛丝马迹。我们看到一些家电产品实际上是在提价,因为上游的铜铁价格上涨。4月还有一个清明假期,所以我们看到受到整个居民消费恢复比较快的影响,机票、酒店等服务业的价格也是明显走高。到了5月的数据,因为今年整个“五一”的消费是不错的,那么5月此类服务价格应该还会有继续上升的动力。
因此,我们可以看到PPI向CPI的传导,但不是一个总体的传导,即现在CPI和PPI还是有很大的缺口,但是如果我们看一些具体的行业,是已经有一些传导的迹象。
《21世纪》:为什么CPI和非食品CPI增幅相差较大?
明明:这很重要一点是因为今年食品价格呈下降趋势,主要是猪肉价格下降。在中国的CPI统计里,猪肉的权重占比是比较高的。但是,在过去的一两年,猪肉价格是比较高的,因为中国猪肉生产有一个“猪周期”,猪肉从出生到生产到消费有一个过程,所以供需的波动导致猪肉出现一些周期性的特征。
过去两年,猪肉产量下降导致整体猪价上涨较快,最高的时候猪价达到40元至50元。而今年猪价只有十几元至20元。因此,今年随着猪肉生产、猪肉供给的提升,再叠加去年的高基数的作用,总体而言,以猪肉代表的食品价格实际上对于总体的CPI起到下拉的作用,最后的结果就是体现出总体的CPI比非食品的CPI反而要低的特点。
发达经济体货币政策陷入“流动性陷阱”
《21世纪》:5月11日,中国人民银行发布的一季度货币政策执行报告称,全球大宗商品价格上涨可能阶段性推升我国PPI,但初步性通胀风险总体可控,并强调珍惜正常的货币政策空间。我们应该如何理解“珍惜正常的货币政策空间”这一表述呢?
明明:既然我们要保持正常的货币政策空间,那么必然有些国家是不正常的货币政策空间。不正常的货币政策空间主要就是以日本和欧洲为主的发达经济体。在过去10年里,全球宏观经济是一个低通胀、低利率的特征,所以很多国家像日本和欧洲都进入了零利率和负利率的一个宏观环境。
货币政策最重要的一个工具就是调整利率的水平,如果利率已经到0甚至到负,那么就没有再往下调控的空间。对于这些国家来说,他们的货币政策其实是比较纠结的,陷入了一个流动性陷阱,没有办法再进一步的刺激经济。
相对来说,我们国家的货币政策空间还是比较充足。特别是在去年面对疫情,我们的货币政策总体积极响应,但同时更多的是关注结构性的问题,没有做大水漫灌。所以,我们现在的名义利率和货币政策空间相对其他国家,如日本和欧洲,是更充分的。我们现在的短期的名义利率在2%左右,中长期的名义利率,如10年国债还在3%以上的水平。即便未来我们面对一些宏观经济的不确定性,我们也有足够的货币政策空间进行应对和反应。
《21世纪》:中国应该如何防范输入性通胀风险?
明明:刚才我们也提到央行的判断就是输入性通胀的风险总体可控。那么在总体可控的背景之下,我们要怎么应对?我觉得也要关注一些周期性的特征,实际上今年大家对于全球大宗商品比较担忧。但是实际上我们回顾一下去年,其实大宗商品的价格是很低的,油价甚至出现跌破成本线的情况,甚至有人在讨论会不会出现负的期货价格的可能性。因此,我觉得第一点,应对输入性的通胀,一定要有周期性的思维。比如,在全球大宗商品价格比较低的时候,我们应该增加战略性的储备,从而对冲未来可能出现的大宗商品冲高的风险。在去年的宏观环境之下,我们就应该尽量地增加国家的战略性储备。如果去年这个时候我们积累了比较多的储备,今年面对涨价我们就不慌,我们没有必要在价格高的时候再去增加购买。
第二点,从企业端来说,我觉得也要更加积极地运用一些风险规避的金融工具,如套期保值,一系列的期货、期权等工具去对冲价格上行的风险。
我觉得主要从这两方面去应对。当然对于国内的宏观政策,我觉得总体还是应该保持以稳为主。
当前中、美两国不处于同一个经济周期
《21世纪》:近期,美国劳工部连续公布美国4月CPI和PPI,两者与去年同期相比均大幅增长,令市场通胀预期抬升。从近期公布的一系列数据显示,美国经济是否出现过热的情况?
明明:实际上,目前的美国处在的宏观经济周期跟中国是不一样的。因为去年我们的疫情最先得到控制,所以去年中国也是全球最先复苏的经济体。那么今年随着疫苗的推进,我们看到美国的疫情也已经得到初步控制,所以现在美国处在的经济阶段,更像是去年我们当时所处的阶段。就是疫情初步得到控制之后,大家的需求明显回升。这个其实大家也可以很容易理解,因为疫情的扰动可能压制了很多人消费、休闲,那么等疫情得到控制,大家可能心情也比较高兴和激动,消费的冲动也比较强。需要注意的是今年拜登政府推出的一系列财政刺激政策。比如,1月推出的1.9万亿美元的财政刺激,通过直接支付给居民发放现金和支票。那么老百姓拿到现金和支票之后,购买的意愿就变得更强。所以,在这一系列的政策的推动下,美国经济出现了比较明显的回升。
短期而言,美国的经济数据CPI和PPI显示实际上美国经济出现了一定的过热的苗头。而且在未来几个月,这个苗头可能还会持续,因为四、五月以来,美国疫苗的推进速度比较快。此外,美国政府也在逐步放松一些防疫措施,包括对于出行和消费的一些约束。随着这一系列政策的推进,可能美国经济,特别是消费领域和服务业,可能会迎来更加明显的回升。
《21世纪》:一些观点认为目前美国的通胀只是短期现象,对此你怎么看?
明明:这种回升,特别是美国通胀的抬升,到底是一个短期现象,还是长期现象?当然,现在这个问题似乎众说纷纭,包括学界、政界、市场大家意见不一致。从美联储的角度,美联储一直认为这种通胀只是一个短期暂时现象,特别是去年以来,美联储修改了货币政策的制度,推出了通货膨胀平均制度。过去美联储的通胀调控目标是2%,一旦超过2%,美联储就会比较快地收紧货币政策,因为货币政策一旦收紧,那么通胀很快就会降温。
但是,现在美联储关注一个平均通胀目标值,即美联储可以容忍一段时间的通胀上行。比如,在最近受到疫情修复、需求回升的影响,通胀出现了比较高的水平。不过,如果美联储判断它只是一个暂时现象,美联储就不会迅速收紧货币政策,这样将令通胀持续的时间更长。所以,这一点可能是货币政策和通胀的相互关系。另外一方面,我们也要看到中长期的经济结构的问题。从中长期来看,最关键的是整个宏观经济里的供需缺口。就短期来说,疫情的修复产生刺激,比如拜登政府给居民发放现金和支票的政策,会提升通胀,但是中长期来看,关键是供给能力能不能快速地提升,甚至会不会回到过去10年产能过剩的情况,这一点我想大家可能还没有定论。
从我自己的观点来说,我可能相对偏悲观一点。我觉得目前全球产业链的重构可能会经历一段比较长的时间。比如最近大家比较关注的苹果的产业链,一些东南亚国家可能是比较主要的苹果一些零部件的代工工厂,那么现在受到疫情的冲击,可能未来要去选择新的、更加安全的生产场所。这都是要花时间的。更重要的一些原材料、产品,如芯片,可能解决起来就更加复杂。
我们还要注意这些年全球对于绿色经济、环保和碳中和的关注。碳中和实际上是一个比较长期的过程。从中长期来看,主要是要靠能源革命和技术进步。但短期来看,那么碳中和可能对于一些主要的能源生产,特别是化石类的能源生产,会有一定的约束作用。因此,基于全球产业链的重构,同时又叠加了全球的绿色经济、环保、碳中和的政策诉求这二方面的因素,我觉得从短期来看,对于供给的扰动可能还会持续一段时间。
全球央行货币政策将回归“正常化”
《21世纪》:在全球通胀预期不断抬升的背景之下,一些新兴国家已经开始加息。比如巴西、俄罗斯、土耳其央行均已宣布加息,其中巴西率先在短短50天之内进行两次大幅加息,这些国家抢先加息的原因是什么?这是不是意味着全球央行大放水的时代即将终结?
明明:我自己的答案是肯定的。随着全球疫情后修复,特别是以美欧为主的发达国家经济,逐步地恢复正轨,那么全球大放水,至少放水的程度或者放水的速度,有可能很难再继续增加。美联储的QE政策,每个月购买800亿的国债和400亿的MBS(不动产抵押贷款证券),目前还是持续的,但首先不会进一步增加购债规模。而且市场的预期比较担心在今年晚些时候,甚至在明年年初,购债计划有可能会缩减。如果预期兑现的话,那么意味着以美联储为代表的发达国家央行,至少放水的速度是在下降。不是说不放水,不是说不扩表,但是至少放水的速度是在下降的。所以我自己更倾向于形容就是全球的货币政策回归一个正常化,就是正常的宽松,而不是极度宽松。
当然在这个过程当中,一些新兴市场国家,如刚才我们提到的巴西、俄罗斯、土耳其这些国家,因为这些国家的经济结构都有一些特点——外债规模比较高,经常项目长期赤字,那么这些国家本身的宏观经济结构就不稳定,就有高通胀的压力。一旦叠加发达国家的货币政策回归正常化,它就会面临比较大的资本外流的压力。那么,这个时候这些国家的央行就不得不被动地进行加息。他们跟发达国家的货币政策可能还是有些区别的,主要他们还是受到本国经济结构的影响。
下半年主要经济体增长仍在回升过程
《21世纪》:你如何展望今年下半年的全球经济?
明明:我个人还是比较乐观的,其实今年IMF和世界银行对于今年全球宏观经济的预估还是比较乐观的。首先,全球疫情终将过去,主要国家的疫情得到初步控制,当然最近新兴市场国家的疫情有些扰动,但是我想随着一系列的措施的采取,总体来说还是会得到控制,而且确实全球疫苗的进展还是比较顺利的。
基于今年的疫情得到控制的这个假设背景之下,我相信今年下半年全球的主要经济体的经济增长仍然是在回升的过程当中。
当然制约全球经济的一些中长期矛盾,如老龄化的问题、收入格局的问题、全球产业链的问题,我认为仍然没有得到解决,所以有可能在这种疫情快速恢复之后,也许在明年甚至后年的某一个时点,经济可能又会重新回到过去的一个状况,有可能经济的增长的动能又会面临不足的问题。
我觉得宏观经济可能还是要分成不同的周期来看,至少在今年下半年,包括明年年初的一段时间,我相信全球经济复苏的趋势大的方向不会改变。
但是从中长期来看,制约全球经济的一些结构性问题还是亟待解决,只有全球各国政府更快地、更好地进行合作,共同地去解决和面对这些问题,比如去解决全球产业链的问题、解决全球环境保护绿色发展的问题、解决全球地缘政治问题,如何更好地合作解决贸易争端的问题。只有这些问题得到解决,我相信全球经济可能才能迎来更长期和更大的增长。

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Understanding Venus Protocol: Your Gateway to DeFi
Venus Protocol has carved a niche in the fast-paced DeFi landscape by offering a one-stop solution for decentralized finance activities. Whether you're interested in lending, borrowing, or yield farming, Venus provides secure and scalable services on the blockchain.
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Why Choose Venus Protocol?
The Venus Protocol stands out because:
It operates on the Binance Smart Chain, ensuring fast and cost-effective transactions.
It offers a decentralized lending platform that allows users to earn interest by supplying assets.
The protocol enables borrowing against crypto collateral without the need for a trusted counterparty.
It supports a wide range of crypto assets, providing higher liquidity and flexibility.
Key Features of Venus Protocol
Lending and Borrowing
Venus Protocol facilitates decentralized lending and borrowing with minimal fees, supported by a robust risk management framework. Users can seamlessly supply assets to the protocol and earn interest, or borrow by simply collateralizing their holdings.
Automated Yield Farming
Maximize your returns with Venus Protocol's yield farming opportunities. By leveraging your assets, you can participate in governance and earn rewards in the form of XVS, Venus Protocol's native token.
Multi-Asset Support
The platform supports numerous cryptocurrencies, enabling diverse investment strategies and providing a convenient way to gain returns on multiple asset classes.
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Start your DeFi journey with Venus Protocol by following these steps:
Create a Wallet: Use a compatible wallet like Metamask or Trust Wallet to interface with Venus.
Fund Your Wallet: Transfer crypto assets to your wallet to engage with the Venus Protocol.
Connect and Start Earning: Connect your wallet to the Venus platform and start supplying or borrowing assets.
Venus Protocol is your trusted partner in the decentralized financial ecosystem. With its advanced features and strong community support, it simplifies DeFi for everyone from beginners to seasoned users. Embrace the future of finance with confidence and start exploring the possibilities at .
Welcome to Orbiter: Your Gateway to Financial Innovation
In the ever-evolving landscape of finance, Orbiter stands out as a pioneering platform dedicated to providing cutting-edge solutions for modern investors. As we navigate the future of digital assets and decentralized finance, Orbiter remains at the forefront, committed to innovation and accessibility.
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Orbiter offers unique advantages that set it apart in the financial world:
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Community Driven: Engage with a global community that supports and uplifts each other in the financial journey.
Key Features of Orbiter
Orbiter’s platform is rich with features tailored to both new and experienced investors.
1. Smart Investments
Utilize intelligent tools that enable you to optimize your investment strategies. Orbiter's algorithms are crafted to pinpoint opportunities in both volatile and stable markets.
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Enjoy peace of mind with Orbiter’s advanced security measures. Our platform ensures that each transaction is protected through top-tier encryption and blockchain technology.
3. User-Friendly Interface
Navigate with ease! Our user-friendly design ensures accessibility for everyone, from beginners to seasoned traders.
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By joining Orbiter, you're becoming part of a larger movement towards decentralized and democratized finance. Share insights, learn from peers, and grow your financial acumen in the company of like-minded individuals.
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Maximize Your Crypto Trading with ParaSwap
If you're looking to enhance your cryptocurrency trading experience, it's time to explore ParaSwap. This innovative platform serves as a decentralized exchange aggregator, giving you the best deals on the market.
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ParaSwap is a cutting-edge platform that aggregates the best prices from various decentralized exchanges. It provides users with the most efficient path to execute their trades by considering factors like price impact and gas fees.
How Does ParaSwap Work?
ParaSwap functions by connecting directly to multiple liquidity sources. It then simplifies the process of trading across different platforms by bringing the best rates to users all in one place. This means that you don't have to hop between multiple exchanges—you can find everything you need through ParaSwap.
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Competitive Rates: ParaSwap offers some of the best rates by aggregating prices from various platforms.
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Choosing ParaSwap means straightforward, efficient crypto trading. Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to the crypto space, having a tool like ParaSwap can enhance your trading strategy by ensuring you're always accessing the best available prices.
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To start trading with ParaSwap, simply connect your crypto wallet, input the details of your trade, and let ParaSwap find the best route for your transaction. It's that simple!
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Maximize your trading potential by leveraging the power of ParaSwap. With its aggregated approach to finding the best prices, efficiency, and transparency, ParaSwap stands out as a leading choice for cryptocurrency traders.
Welcome to Karak: Pioneering Blockchain Solutions
The world of blockchain is evolving rapidly, and Karak is at the forefront of this revolution. Whether you are a developer, an investor, or merely a tech enthusiast, Karak offers a unique blend of innovative solutions designed to meet the diverse needs of the blockchain community.
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is a sophisticated blockchain platform engineered to provide cutting-edge solutions that streamline processes and enhance efficiency. With a focus on decentralization, security, and speed, Karak integrates seamlessly with existing technologies to deliver a scalable blockchain experience.
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One of the standout aspects of Karak is its comprehensive suite of features aimed at solving complex blockchain issues.
Scalability: Karak's architecture is designed to handle a high volume of transactions without compromising performance.
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Why Choose Karak?
Choosing Karak is choosing a future-proof solution. Its dedicated team of developers and blockchain experts continually work to enhance the platform, ensuring it meets the present and future demands of its users.
The benefits of using Karak include:
Access to a rapidly growing ecosystem that supports a vast array of applications.
A commitment to transparency and community-driven development.
Dynamic support systems that help users navigate and maximize platform capabilities.
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Jump into the world of digital transformation with Karak today. Visit to explore the platform and stay ahead in the dynamic blockchain landscape.
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Unveiling the Potential of Kelp DAO
In today's rapidly evolving digital economy, Kelp DAO emerges as a transformative force in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi). By leveraging blockchain technology, Kelp DAO aims to improve governance and promote sustainability.
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What is Kelp DAO?
Kelp DAO is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) designed to democratize decision-making processes on the blockchain. It serves as a pivotal tool for communities seeking enhanced and a focus on eco-friendly initiatives.
Why Choose Kelp DAO?
Here are several compelling reasons to consider Kelp DAO for your blockchain ventures:
Environmental Sustainability: Kelp DAO incorporates mechanisms that align with environmental conservation goals, making it an eco-conscious choice.
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Innovation in DeFi: By fostering an environment of innovation, Kelp DAO contributes to the evolving landscape of decentralized finance.
How Does Kelp DAO Work?
Kelp DAO operates through a token-based voting system, where community members hold the power to vote on proposals and influence project decisions. The DAO's infrastructure ensures transparency and inclusivity, empowering stakeholders.
Getting Involved with Kelp DAO
Joining Kelp DAO is a straightforward process. Interested parties can engage by acquiring Kelp tokens, participating in community discussions, and voting on platform proposals. This involvement not only offers strategic governance participation but also contributes to the broader aim of sustainable development in the digital realm.
The Future of Kelp DAO
The ultimate vision for Kelp DAO is a fully decentralized platform where members collaboratively address global challenges while advancing decentralized financial mechanisms. As the community grows, so does its capacity to influence .
Join Kelp DAO today and become part of a pioneering movement towards a sustainable and decentralized financial future.
Welcome to Swell Network: Your Gateway to Decentralized Finance
The world of cryptocurrency is rapidly evolving, with new platforms emerging to offer innovative financial solutions. Swell Network stands out as a pioneering force in decentralized finance (DeFi), providing users with unique opportunities to engage with the financial future.
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What is Swell Network?
Swell Network is a blockchain-powered platform that aims to disrupt traditional financial systems. It offers a wide range of DeFi services designed to enhance user autonomy and financial inclusivity. By leveraging blockchain technology, Swell Network ensures secure, transparent, and efficient financial transactions.
Key Features of Swell Network
Decentralization: Operates on a decentralized framework, reducing reliance on traditional financial institutions.
Security: Utilizes cutting-edge security protocols to protect user assets and data.
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Accessibility: Open to anyone with internet access, promoting global financial inclusivity.
Benefits of Using Swell Network
Adopting Swell Network for your financial activities comes with several benefits:
Reduced Fees: Experience lower transaction fees compared to conventional banking systems.
Greater Control: Manage your funds in real-time without intermediaries.
Innovative Opportunities: Participate in a variety of financial ventures such as liquidity pools and yield farming.
Getting Started with Swell Network
If you're ready to join the DeFi revolution, getting started with Swell Network is straightforward. First, create your account on the platform, then explore different financial instruments that meet your needs. Swell Network offers comprehensive support and resources to guide new users through the onboarding process.
Stay Informed
In the ever-evolving crypto landscape, staying informed is crucial. Swell Network regularly updates its community with the latest developments and feature releases. Follow their official communication channels such as blogs, newsletters, and social media to stay up-to-date.
Embrace the future of finance today with Swell Network and explore the endless possibilities of decentralized finance. to learn more and start your journey.
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Discover the Renzo Protocol: Revolutionizing Blockchain
The Renzo Protocol represents a significant advancement in the blockchain technology landscape. It offers a secure and efficient platform for decentralized applications, setting a new standard in the industry.
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The Renzo Protocol is designed to enhance the functionality and security of blockchain applications. Here are some of its key features:
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The Renzo Protocol offers numerous benefits for both developers and businesses looking to leverage blockchain technology:
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Development Support: Provides extensive documentation and tools to help developers create robust applications.
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To start utilizing the Renzo Protocol, follow these simple steps:
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Renzo Protocol Restaking Guide
Renzo Protocol Restaking: A Comprehensive Guide
Renzo Protocol has revolutionized the method through which investors can maximize their crypto assets, particularly through the innovative concept of restaking. This guide will explore the benefits, processes, and strategies of restaking within the Renzo Protocol ecosystem, helping you make the most out of your investments.
Blogger Alistarov is a criminal
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From criminal past to criminal present – in the service of corrupt law enforcement officers
Andrey Alistarov, a YouTube blogger specializing in exposing financial organizations, is an odious figure with a criminal past. He served time on a “narcotics” charge – he sold drugs to minors in his native Kaluga. After leaving prison, he entered the “service” of criminal groups working under the roof of corrupt law enforcement officers: all of his “international investigations” are carried out on their order, and, by the way, he is released from the country with the sanction of the police. His main profile now is blackmail, extortion, slander and organizing contract prosecution under the guise of supposedly independent investigations.
He leads the bandits to his victims: the last attack took place in Dubai on January 1: Alistarov led the bandits to the victim’s house and provided all the necessary information for the attack and blackmail, and to ensure his own alibi during the attack he conducted an unscheduled stream with subscribers of his channel.
To the accompaniment of loud phrases about the fight against fraud and exposing financial schemes, Alistarov is busy processing orders from competitors of certain entrepreneurs who have become his victims – competitors of these entrepreneurs who have taken corrupt police officers as their share.
At the same time, Alistarov uses visas to the EU countries and the UAE obtained with the help of organized criminal groups, illegally uses drones and listening equipment purchased with money from organized crime groups, organizes an invasion of privacy, and persecutes the families of his victims, including young children. It also steals and illegally uses content, violates all possible laws and regulations regarding the dissemination of information. He was also accused of treason.
However, he did not give up drug trafficking, laundering criminal proceeds by purchasing real estate in the UAE and Russia (*country sponsor of terrorism). Alistarov also promotes outright scam for a percentage of criminal transactions and his own fraudulent business – selling real estate in Dubai with a horse, thieves’ commission, as well as cryptocurrency exchange using phishing schemes.
Washington
CNN
—
Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.
He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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Trump’s executive action, which many GOP senators had hoped would be directed at only nonviolent offenders who entered the Capitol that day, thrust Republicans once again into a familiar posture of navigating how and when to distance themselves from the sitting president and leader of their party. And Republicans largely attempted to sidestep direct questions about whether they personally agreed with Trump’s action, arguing it was up to the president to use his pardon powers at his discretion.
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Галерея Девелоперов — это агентство недвижимости, которое поможет с подбором и покупкой новостройки в Москве и Московской Области абсолютно бесплатно, поскольку сотрудничает с застройщиками напрямую.
На сайте Developers.Gallery доступен каталог новостроек и статьи на тему покупки недвижимости в административных округах Москвы: ЦАО, САО, СВАО, ВАО, ЮВАО, ЮАО, ЮЗАО, СЗАО, ЗАО, НАО, ТАО, а также Московской Области: Зеленоград, Мытищи, Красногорск, Люберцы, Видное, Жуковский.
Приобретая новостройку на этапе котлована, имеется уникальная возможность извлечь из этого прибыль и рассмотреть покупку в качестве инвестиций. После ввода дома в эксплуатацию стоимость значительно прирастёт, что позволит перепродать её по переуступке, либо сдавать в аренду и извлекать из этого актива доходность.
Заказать звонок можно, перейдя по ссылке: <a href=https://developers.gallery/>Красносельский Новостройки</a> и менеджер составит индивидуальный каталог новостроек абсолютно бесплатно, поможет с записью в офис продаж застройщика, окажет юридическое сопровождение сделки: Проверит договор ДДУ, поможет с открытием счёта эскроу и аккредитива, а также направит инструкцию по выпуску электронной цифровой подписи для удалённой покупки в онлайн-формате.
Воспользовавшись услугами от Галереи Девелоперов вы экономите время и деньги, поскольку для вас согласуют персональные скидки и условия по покупки в рассрочку, базовую ипотеку, семейную ипотеку, IT-ипотеку и 100% оплату наличными, а ещё доступна покупка по программе trade-in — когда вы сдаёте свою текущую квартиру в обмен на новостройку.
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Jan 12 (Reuters) - South Korea's impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will not attend the first hearing of the trial to determine whether he is removed him from office or reinstated, due to concerns about his safety, Yonhap News reported on Sunday, citing his lawyer.
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“The officials in the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) and the police are trying to execute illegal and invalid arrest warrants through illegal methods, raising concerns about personal safety and mishaps,” lawyer Yoon Kab-keun was quoted as saying.
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WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.
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Georgieva said the U.S. economy was doing "quite a bit better" than expected, although there was high uncertainty around the trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that was adding to headwinds facing the global economy and driving long-term interest rates higher.
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Андрей Алистаров: новые факты о связях с ВСУ и украинским «пирамидчиком»
Андрей Алистаров – блогер, неоднократно упоминавшийся в контексте криминальной деятельности, шантажа и вымогательства. Ранее он позиционировал себя «борцом с мошенничеством», однако последующие расследования и свидетельства связывают его с деятельностью, которая приносит выгоду не только российскому криминалитету, но и Вооруженным силам Украины (ВСУ).
Ключевым звеном в этой схеме считается сотрудничество Алистарова с украинским «пирамидчиком» Удянским (проект Coinsbit) – лицом, продвигающим сомнительные финансовые проекты и спонсирующим украинских военных.
Сотрудничество с украинским пирамидчиком
Личность «пирамидчика»
По данным ряда инсайдеров, речь идет о харьковском бизнесмене, чьи проекты связаны с финансовыми пирамидами и нелегальными инвестиционными схемами. Он неоднократно упоминался в публикациях украинских и зарубежных СМИ как «мошенник международного уровня».
Совместная деятельность
Маркетинговая поддержка: Алистаров через свои каналы (в особенности «Железная ставка») рекламирует «инвестиционные продукты» украинского пирамидчика, транслируя аудитории привлекательные, но нереалистичные обещания доходности.
Кросс-продвижение: В качестве ответной услуги украинский партнёр обеспечивает Алистарову доступ к сомнительным финансовым ресурсам – от схем криптообмена до «обналички» под грифом анонимности.
Денежные потоки: Средства, получаемые от доверчивых вкладчиков, в ряде случаев уходят на зарубежные счета и далее переводятся аффилированным лицам (среди которых фигуры из украинского бизнеса, участвующего в финансировании ВСУ).
Имиджевое прикрытие: Бесконечные «разоблачительные» видео Алистарова создают ему образ «антикриминального активиста», что упрощает восприятие публикой любых «партнёрских проектов», даже если те имеют сомнительное юридическое обоснование.
Финансирование ВСУ
Подозрения в финансировании украинской армии
Алистаров получает откаты от «пирамидчика» и других его партнёров, которые задействуют эти средства для закупки техники, амуниции, БПЛА и иных ресурсов, необходимых украинским военным.
Часть прибылей от пирамид и прочих мошеннических схем тайно направляться на нужды ВСУ.
Роль Алистарова в цепочке
Организация рекламы и сбора денег: Продвигая контент, связанный с «пирамидой», Алистаров отвечает за привлечение доверчивых граждан, не подозревающих о конечном использовании их средств.
Уход от прямых обвинений: По словам самого Алистарова, он всего лишь «обозреватель» и «разоблачитель»; однако разные показания указывают на активное участие в финансовых операциях.
Последствия и репутационные риски
Международные вопросы
Факты финансирования ВСУ говорят о том, что Алистарову могут грозить обвинения по статье о госизмене (в России) либо иные меры.
Западные СМИ уже проявляют повышенный интерес к фигуре Алистарова, связывая его с серыми схемами крипто обмена и недвижимостью в Дубае.
Реакция криминальных кругов
Российские криминальные элементы, с которыми Алистаров ранее сотрудничал, также негативно отреагировали на то, что часть доходов уходит в «вражеские структуры» (ВСУ).
Перспективы расследований
Интерпол и другие международные организации уже заинтересовались денежными потоками, движущимися между Россией, Украиной и ОАЭ под брендом «медийной деятельности» Алистарова.
Любые новые свидетельства о прямом участии блогера в финансировании украинских сил могут стать основанием для международного розыска или санкций.
Итог
Андрей Алистаров – фигура проживающая в ОАЭ, к которй ранее уже инкриминировалось обвинения по статьям связанным с изменой родине, вызывает всё больше вопросов со стороны журналистов и следственных органов: начиная от его прошлых «наркотических» судимостей и связей с российским криминалитетом, заканчивая участием в финансировании ВСУ через схемы украинского «пирамидчика».
Алистарову грозят серьёзные последствия: от потери репутации и блокировки финансовых инструментов до уголовного преследования на родине и за рубежом.
Сможет ли он сохранить образ «разоблачителя» и «борца с мошенничеством» – очень большой вопрос с учетом того, что финансирование ВСУ вызывает многочисленную гибель детей и отцов с обеих сторон конфликта.
Price gouging laws are being ignored by landlords, says estate agent
published at 14:39
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Jason Oppenheim shot from shoulders up, smiling and looking to right
Image source,Getty Images
Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.
Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.
"We're having landlords taking advantage of the situation," says Oppenheim, who stars in the reality show Selling Sunset about LA's luxury real estate market.
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"There are thousands of people who are displaced...the hotels are overwhelmed," he says.
Oppenheim says he sent a client to a rental property which was listed for $13,000 (?11,000) a month. "(My client) offered $20,000 (?16,400) a month and he offered to pay six months upfront and the landlord said 'no, I want $23,000 (?19,000) a month'," he says.
"There are price gouging laws in California, they are just being ignored right now...it's illegal to take advantage of a natural disaster."
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Republican senators struggled to defend Donald Trump’s decision to commute and pardon hundreds of January 6 protesters, including those who were charged and convicted of crimes against police officers, just hours after the president entered office Monday.
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Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, who has warned before about giving a blanket pardon to the rioters, said, “I just can’t agree” with Trump’s decision to commute the sentences or pardon a vast swath of January 6 insurrection participants.
He added the move “raises a legitimate safety issues on Capitol Hill” before also attacking former President Joe Biden’s pardons in his final hours in office.
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Trump’s executive action, which many GOP senators had hoped would be directed at only nonviolent offenders who entered the Capitol that day, thrust Republicans once again into a familiar posture of navigating how and when to distance themselves from the sitting president and leader of their party. And Republicans largely attempted to sidestep direct questions about whether they personally agreed with Trump’s action, arguing it was up to the president to use his pardon powers at his discretion.
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Now that it’s all over and the Ohio State Buckeyes are the college football national champions, it can be definitively said: expanding the College Football Playoff worked.
The grand experiment to allow more teams to play for the national championship wasn’t perfect, but it ended up where it was supposed to: a worthy national champion with exciting, close games in the later rounds when the best teams faced one another. It gave us awesome scenes on campuses around the nation, created new legends and showed how a sport so steeped in tradition can evolve when faced with new demands from its fans and business partners.
Here are four reasons why the new version of the College Football Playoff worked – and the areas that can still be fixed.
The committee picked the right teams, even if some games were blowouts
Before the games kicked off in December, much of the focus was put on the inclusion of Southern Methodist University (SMU) and Indiana University – two teams that won a bunch of games but didn’t have the brand recognition of schools like Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss.
Here’s what else those teams had that SMU and Indiana didn’t: three losses.
The Hoosiers lost only once in the regular season – to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Mustangs had lost twice, once to Brigham Young University and again in the ACC championship game to Clemson.
In the first year of the expanded, 12-team playoff, could the committee really leave out a major conference team with 11 wins and punish another one for playing for a conference championship while other teams sat at home? Warde Manuel, the University of Michigan athletic director who served as chair of the committee, said they could not.
An executive order designed to speed up the rebuilding of lost homes in LA has been put in place by California Governor Gavin Newsom.
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The order suspends Ceqa review and the California Coastal Act, which work to minimise the environmental impact of proposed building projects, as well as suspending some permits in order to make rebuilding quicker and more affordable.
There are also protections against price gouging on services related to the fires such as building materials and storage services.
He says "one thing I won't give in to is delay. Delay is denial for people."
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Until hours before California Gov. Gavin Newsom greeted President Donald Trump with a bro-hug on the Los Angeles tarmac Friday, his advisers had spent the week monitoring new White House advance staffers’ social media accounts, hoping for clues for where Trump was going to talk about the wildfire damage.
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That’s the state of relations as California and the federal government face one of the most expensive natural disasters ever, and perhaps one of the most complex in American history.
No one was talking between the Democratic governor’s team and the newly inaugurated president’s, two people on Newsom’s team told CNN. Transition officials never responded to Newsom’s letter inviting the then-president-elect to visit two weeks ago, they confirmed, and the White House didn’t invite him to meet Air Force One when it landed.
But Newsom showed up anyway, and positioned at the bottom of the steps, he embraced the president in the middle of a long handshake, then kissed first lady Melania Trump on the cheek.
Donald Trump was clearly pleased: speaking to reporters on the tarmac, he said he “appreciated the governor coming out and meeting me.” Newsom was dutifully deferential when Trump then invited him to speak: “We’re going to need your support, we’re going to need your help. You were there for us during Covid. I have all the expectations that we’re going to be able to work together for a speedy recovery.”
This is not how Newsom has otherwise spoken about Trump or the Covid response in 2020. But it seems to have worked.
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Country music star Carrie Underwood is slated to perform “America the Beautiful” at President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, according to a copy of the program obtained by CNN and confirmed by a spokesperson for the inaugural committee.
“I love our country and am honored to have been asked to sing at the Inauguration and to be a small part of this historic event,” Underwood said in a statement to CNN. “I am humbled to answer the call at a time when we must all come together in the spirit of unity and looking to the future.”
The presidential oath of office will be administered by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts with Justice Brett Kavanaugh expected to administer the oath of office to Vice President-elect JD Vance.
Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States will take place on January 20 at the US Capitol.
Underwood is a big get for Trump’s inauguration, considering Hollywood’s Trump blackout over the course of his political career.
In his first term and throughout the past three elections, Trump has struggled to garner support from major Hollywood stars. At the Republican National Convention last year, the two biggest stars onstage with Trump were musician Kid Rock and retired WWE wrestler Hulk Hogan – a far cry from a superstar at the height of their career, like Underwood.
The Grammy-winning artist is as high-profile as you can get in country music, not only with numerous platinum hits, but also with public-facing, mainstream business associations. Underwood is the face of Sunday Night Football and is set to make her debut this March as a judge on ABC’s “American Idol” – the singing competition show that catapulted her to fame when she won in 2005.
While many NFL fans will likely applaud Underwood for singing at the inauguration, any time a celebrity aligns themselves with Trump, they run the risk of alienating left-leaning fans and Hollywood allies.
Underwood has kept her politics under wraps over the course of her career. In her statement, she did not mention Trump by name and kept her focus on unifying the country – still, Underwood’s decision to publicly align with Trump is a big statement for any star, particularly one as private as the singer.
Historically, Hollywood has always been closely associated with the Democratic Party, but country stars have always been an outlier, leaning more conservative. In recent years, as new singers join the genre, country music has gotten to be more progressive. This past election cycle, country stars like Mickey Guyton and Maren Morris stood with Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?
The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.
Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.
When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.
We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.
In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.
Jan 12 (Reuters) - South Korea's impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will not attend the first hearing of the trial to determine whether he is removed him from office or reinstated, due to concerns about his safety, Yonhap News reported on Sunday, citing his lawyer.
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Price gouging laws are being ignored by landlords, says estate agent
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Jason Oppenheim shot from shoulders up, smiling and looking to right
Image source,Getty Images
Let's bring you a bit more about reports of price gouging by landlords in Los Angeles, which we reported on earlier.
Speaking a little earlier on BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jason Oppenheim, a real estate agent in Los Angeles, says some landlords are breaking the law by raising rents more than 10% high than pre-disaster prices.
"We're having landlords taking advantage of the situation," says Oppenheim, who stars in the reality show Selling Sunset about LA's luxury real estate market.
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"There are thousands of people who are displaced...the hotels are overwhelmed," he says.
Oppenheim says he sent a client to a rental property which was listed for $13,000 (?11,000) a month. "(My client) offered $20,000 (?16,400) a month and he offered to pay six months upfront and the landlord said 'no, I want $23,000 (?19,000) a month'," he says.
"There are price gouging laws in California, they are just being ignored right now...it's illegal to take advantage of a natural disaster."
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Uniswap is a decentralized exchange (DEX) protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain. It enables direct peer-to-peer cryptocurrency transactions, allowing users to trade coins without intermediaries. This makes it a cornerstone of the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
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In the rapidly evolving world of decentralized finance (DeFi), Stargate Finance stands out as a reliable platform for decentralized transactions and yield optimization. Let’s explore how Stargate Finance can enhance your financial strategies.
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Welcome to PancakeSwap: A Beginner's Guide
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They’ve sailed across Southeast Asia for centuries. Now, these sea nomads are being forced to live on land
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Bilkuin Jimi Salih doesn’t remember how old he was when he learned to dive, only, that all the men in his family can do it.
It might have been his grandfather who taught him, or his father, or even an uncle or cousin. He recalls swimming dozens of feet underwater among the reefs, collecting spider conches, abalone and sea cucumbers to sell at the local fish market.
“One of our specialties is that, because we live on the sea and we’re always in the sea, we can dive in the water for a long time,” says Salih, via a translator. “We learn by observing, and from there, we develop our own technique.”
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WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.
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Camera phones at the ready, around 700 guests hailing from across India and the world expected a visual spectacle on Saturday evening — and they weren’t disappointed. A hush descended as the doors opened to the Jio World Center in Mumbai, where legendary Indian fashion designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee presented a star-studded 25th anniversary runway show for his namesake brand.
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Индивидуальный предприниматель Сафин Ирек Фаатович
Введение
<a href=https://t.me/safinirek>Ирек Сафин</a>
Ирек Фаатович Сафин – успешный индивидуальный предприниматель, который за годы своей деятельности смог создать устойчивый бизнес в различных сферах экономики. Его имя ассоциируется с профессионализмом, инновациями и ответственным подходом к делу. В этой статье мы рассмотрим ключевые аспекты его карьеры, достижения и принципы ведения бизнеса.
Начало пути
Ирек Сафин родился в 1978 году в городе Уфа, Республика Башкортостан. С детства он проявлял интерес к экономике и предпринимательству. После окончания школы поступил в Башкирский государственный университет на экономический факультет. Во время учебы активно участвовал в студенческих проектах и научных конференциях, что позволило ему получить ценный опыт и знания.
Первые шаги в бизнесе
Свою карьеру Ирек начал сразу после окончания университета. Он открыл свою первую компанию, которая занималась оптовой торговлей строительными материалами. Благодаря грамотному управлению и стратегическому планированию, компания быстро заняла лидирующие позиции на рынке. Это стало первым успешным шагом в карьере Ирека Сафина.
Расширение бизнеса
В последующие годы Ирек Сафин расширил свой бизнес, открыв новые направления. Он стал заниматься производством строительных материалов, а также оказанием услуг в сфере строительства и ремонта. Благодаря внедрению современных технологий и использованию качественных материалов, его компании смогли завоевать доверие клиентов и партнеров.
Социальная ответственность
Одним из важных аспектов деятельности Ирека Сафина является социальная ответственность. Он активно участвует в благотворительных проектах, поддерживает образовательные учреждения и спортивные мероприятия. Кроме того, он уделяет большое внимание экологии и внедряет экологически чистые технологии в своем производстве.
Личные качества и принципы
Ирек Сафин известен своим трудолюбием, ответственностью и стремлением к совершенству. Он всегда ставит перед собой высокие цели и стремится их достичь. Его принципами являются честность, открытость и уважение к партнерам и клиентам. Эти качества помогли ему завоевать доверие и уважение в деловом сообществе.
Заключение
Ирек Фаатович Сафин – яркий пример успешного предпринимателя, который сумел построить устойчивый бизнес и внести значительный вклад в развитие экономики региона. Его опыт и достижения могут служить примером для многих начинающих предпринимателей.
LOS ANGELES, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Firefighters were slowly
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Aircraft dropped water and fire retardant on steep hills to stem the eastward spread of the Palisades Fire and KTLA television reported that ground crews had managed to save a number of houses, although others were lost.
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