
5、6月中国PPI或将继续面临上行压力。
美国东部时间5月20日,美联储公布4月会议纪要。会议纪要显示,部分联邦公开市场委员会(the Federal Open Market Committee)委员认为,如果美国经济继续朝着两大目标快速前进,那么在未来某次会议中开始讨论调整美联储资产购买步伐的计划“可能是合适的”。这是疫情在美国暴发以来,美联储官员首次讨论收紧货币政策立场的可能性。
事实上,在强劲的通胀数据影响之下,市场对美联储收紧货币政策的预期不断攀升。5月11日公布的中国PPI数据再次超出预期,5月13日和14日,美国的CPI和PPI数据也超出市场预期。在大宗商品涨价潮的持续助推下,全球性的通胀似乎近在眼前。
那么,全球通胀是否已经不可避免?面对节节攀升的通胀预期,全球主要央行“大放水”的时代是否即将终结?中国又该如何防范输入性通胀风险?21世纪经济报道记者独家专访中信证券研究所副所长、首席FICC分析师明明,就上述问题进行一一解答。
全球市场对通胀关注度不断上升
《21世纪》:近期国际和国内市场对通胀的关注都在不断地加剧。这背后的主要原因是什么?
明明:实际上在2008年金融危机之后,长达10多年的时间里,大家更关注的问题是全球低通胀甚至是通缩的问题,这其中核心问题是全球有效需求不足以及产能过剩。因此,尽管在2008年之后,以发达国家为主的全球央行不断地进行货币宽松,对全球经济进行刺激,但是实际上在疫情之前我们发现通胀反而是越来越低的,甚至有些国家进入长期的低通胀,甚至负通胀,所以对应地进入了一个零利率甚至负利率的时代。
那么疫情以来,特别是今年以来,通胀的压力在提升。
从需求端来看,在去年新冠疫情暴发之后,很多国家陷入了疫情的影响,并采取了一系列有效的措施去控制疫情。但是这些措施都会使得需求受到影响,比如出行需求,旅游、商务出行等的需求都会受到影响,所以需求被暂时地压抑。但是今年以来随着新冠疫情在全球范围整体得到有效的控制,需求实际上出现一个爆发式的回升。同时,去年以来,全球的主要国家,特别是以美国为首的发达国家,推出了一系列强力的刺激政策。比如美国政府推出了号称是无限量QE(量化宽松)的政策,这种货币宽松的力度甚至比2008年金融危机之后的刺激力度还要强得多。
因此,一方面是疫情对于需求的冲击是一次性的,那么在疫情得到控制之后,大家的这种正常的生活需求本身就有一个集中式的爆发和回补。另一方面,在全球自去年以来大规模的货币、财政刺激的背景之下,需求本身也有一个扩张。综上,我们看到的结果就是需求并不差,而且今年以来实际上需求还是比较强的。
从供给端来看,疫情对于供给的冲击反而持续的时间会更长。企业的生产实际上是很复杂的一个过程,不是说今天疫情得到控制,明天就可以开工生产,特别是在现在全球整个产业链高度发展的背景之下,任何生产都不是一个国家、一个企业能够解决的,都是上下游产业链共同生产的一个过程。
今年还有一个特点,就是疫情在不同国家的发生和发展出现了不均衡。有的国家控制得比较好,比如去年我们国家是疫情得到最先控制的,今年主要的发达国家也初步得到控制。但是目前来看,以印度为首的部分新兴市场国家反而疫情有加剧的可能性。因此,我们可以看到在不同的国家,疫情的发展程度不一样。
《21世纪》:印度其实在全球供应链中占据相当重要的位置。那么此次印度的疫情对全球产业链是否有影响?
明明:印度是主要的生产国,因此印度的疫情使得整个产业链受到了扰动。我提出一点,疫情对于供给的扰动可能是一个持续性的影响。而且,这两年可能还有一个大的宏观背景是全球产业链的重构,包括美国在内的一些发达国家都要求制造业回流本土。此外,一些企业的产业链实际上也在做一些新的布置和安排,比如前一段时间全球芯片的短缺等问题都对供给形成了扰动。
我们看到目前的一个情况,就是在疫情后的宏观经济和疫情前过去10年的宏观经济出现了比较大的不同。虽然刚才我们说一些中长期压制需求的因素,如人口问题、老龄化问题、收入格局问题,短期都得不到解决,但是短期的供需缺口可能出现了变化。
所以,现在从过去的供大于求的格局变成了供不应求的格局。这实际上是推升全球通胀的一个基本的宏观经济预期,也是对于我们理解目前通胀的讨论的一个比较好的宏观背景。
5、6月中国PPI或将继续面临上行压力
《21世纪》:5月11日,中国率先公布4月CPI和PPI数据,在大宗商品暴涨的背景下,4月PPI同比上涨6.8%,创2017年10月以来的新高,4月CPI同比上涨0.9%,连续第二个月走高。此外4月非食品CPI同比涨幅也从3月的0.7%升至1.3%。你认为PPI是否已经出现向CPI传导的迹象?
明明:从国内的通胀数据来看,4月的通胀数据实际上是比较超预期的。4月PPI同比上涨6.8%,明显是高于预期。实际上我们可以跟历史的均值来比,6.8%基本上是属于历史的分位数大概百分之七八十的水平。近年来, PPI比较高的一个时段大概是在2016和2017年,当时正处于供给侧改革的宏观背景之下,PPI最高的位置大概是7%到8%的水平。
我们看到4月的 PPI已经接近7%,而且目前来看,在基数、轻涨价的原因等等一切的因素影响下,有可能5、6月的PPI还有上行的压力,所以PPI是比较高的。另外一方面,4月CPI同比其实并不高——0.9%。但是其实已经连续几个月上升,而且需要关注的是非食品CPI实际上在4月的涨幅也是比较多的,从3月份的0.7%涨到了1.3%。那么PPI有没有向CPI传导呢?我们看到PPI是比较高的——6.8%,CPI才百分之零点几,还不到1%,我觉得可能有一定传导的迹象,但传导是不均衡的。首先我们要看到PPI从上游向下游传导是要根据不同的行业来判断的,因为上游企业生产是比较集中的,如煤炭钢铁主要都是一些大型企业。但是下游企业,如消费品企业、汽车零售,都是一个竞争比较激烈的市场、比较分散的市场。所以相对来说,上游的企业提价或受到成本的冲击,由于全球需求的提升,它的涨价可能是会比较迅速的。但是下游企业因为面对着很强的市场竞争压力,所以它的提价是比较困难的。但是,从4月份的CPI数据里还是能够发现一些蛛丝马迹。我们看到一些家电产品实际上是在提价,因为上游的铜铁价格上涨。4月还有一个清明假期,所以我们看到受到整个居民消费恢复比较快的影响,机票、酒店等服务业的价格也是明显走高。到了5月的数据,因为今年整个“五一”的消费是不错的,那么5月此类服务价格应该还会有继续上升的动力。
因此,我们可以看到PPI向CPI的传导,但不是一个总体的传导,即现在CPI和PPI还是有很大的缺口,但是如果我们看一些具体的行业,是已经有一些传导的迹象。
《21世纪》:为什么CPI和非食品CPI增幅相差较大?
明明:这很重要一点是因为今年食品价格呈下降趋势,主要是猪肉价格下降。在中国的CPI统计里,猪肉的权重占比是比较高的。但是,在过去的一两年,猪肉价格是比较高的,因为中国猪肉生产有一个“猪周期”,猪肉从出生到生产到消费有一个过程,所以供需的波动导致猪肉出现一些周期性的特征。
过去两年,猪肉产量下降导致整体猪价上涨较快,最高的时候猪价达到40元至50元。而今年猪价只有十几元至20元。因此,今年随着猪肉生产、猪肉供给的提升,再叠加去年的高基数的作用,总体而言,以猪肉代表的食品价格实际上对于总体的CPI起到下拉的作用,最后的结果就是体现出总体的CPI比非食品的CPI反而要低的特点。
发达经济体货币政策陷入“流动性陷阱”
《21世纪》:5月11日,中国人民银行发布的一季度货币政策执行报告称,全球大宗商品价格上涨可能阶段性推升我国PPI,但初步性通胀风险总体可控,并强调珍惜正常的货币政策空间。我们应该如何理解“珍惜正常的货币政策空间”这一表述呢?
明明:既然我们要保持正常的货币政策空间,那么必然有些国家是不正常的货币政策空间。不正常的货币政策空间主要就是以日本和欧洲为主的发达经济体。在过去10年里,全球宏观经济是一个低通胀、低利率的特征,所以很多国家像日本和欧洲都进入了零利率和负利率的一个宏观环境。
货币政策最重要的一个工具就是调整利率的水平,如果利率已经到0甚至到负,那么就没有再往下调控的空间。对于这些国家来说,他们的货币政策其实是比较纠结的,陷入了一个流动性陷阱,没有办法再进一步的刺激经济。
相对来说,我们国家的货币政策空间还是比较充足。特别是在去年面对疫情,我们的货币政策总体积极响应,但同时更多的是关注结构性的问题,没有做大水漫灌。所以,我们现在的名义利率和货币政策空间相对其他国家,如日本和欧洲,是更充分的。我们现在的短期的名义利率在2%左右,中长期的名义利率,如10年国债还在3%以上的水平。即便未来我们面对一些宏观经济的不确定性,我们也有足够的货币政策空间进行应对和反应。
《21世纪》:中国应该如何防范输入性通胀风险?
明明:刚才我们也提到央行的判断就是输入性通胀的风险总体可控。那么在总体可控的背景之下,我们要怎么应对?我觉得也要关注一些周期性的特征,实际上今年大家对于全球大宗商品比较担忧。但是实际上我们回顾一下去年,其实大宗商品的价格是很低的,油价甚至出现跌破成本线的情况,甚至有人在讨论会不会出现负的期货价格的可能性。因此,我觉得第一点,应对输入性的通胀,一定要有周期性的思维。比如,在全球大宗商品价格比较低的时候,我们应该增加战略性的储备,从而对冲未来可能出现的大宗商品冲高的风险。在去年的宏观环境之下,我们就应该尽量地增加国家的战略性储备。如果去年这个时候我们积累了比较多的储备,今年面对涨价我们就不慌,我们没有必要在价格高的时候再去增加购买。
第二点,从企业端来说,我觉得也要更加积极地运用一些风险规避的金融工具,如套期保值,一系列的期货、期权等工具去对冲价格上行的风险。
我觉得主要从这两方面去应对。当然对于国内的宏观政策,我觉得总体还是应该保持以稳为主。
当前中、美两国不处于同一个经济周期
《21世纪》:近期,美国劳工部连续公布美国4月CPI和PPI,两者与去年同期相比均大幅增长,令市场通胀预期抬升。从近期公布的一系列数据显示,美国经济是否出现过热的情况?
明明:实际上,目前的美国处在的宏观经济周期跟中国是不一样的。因为去年我们的疫情最先得到控制,所以去年中国也是全球最先复苏的经济体。那么今年随着疫苗的推进,我们看到美国的疫情也已经得到初步控制,所以现在美国处在的经济阶段,更像是去年我们当时所处的阶段。就是疫情初步得到控制之后,大家的需求明显回升。这个其实大家也可以很容易理解,因为疫情的扰动可能压制了很多人消费、休闲,那么等疫情得到控制,大家可能心情也比较高兴和激动,消费的冲动也比较强。需要注意的是今年拜登政府推出的一系列财政刺激政策。比如,1月推出的1.9万亿美元的财政刺激,通过直接支付给居民发放现金和支票。那么老百姓拿到现金和支票之后,购买的意愿就变得更强。所以,在这一系列的政策的推动下,美国经济出现了比较明显的回升。
短期而言,美国的经济数据CPI和PPI显示实际上美国经济出现了一定的过热的苗头。而且在未来几个月,这个苗头可能还会持续,因为四、五月以来,美国疫苗的推进速度比较快。此外,美国政府也在逐步放松一些防疫措施,包括对于出行和消费的一些约束。随着这一系列政策的推进,可能美国经济,特别是消费领域和服务业,可能会迎来更加明显的回升。
《21世纪》:一些观点认为目前美国的通胀只是短期现象,对此你怎么看?
明明:这种回升,特别是美国通胀的抬升,到底是一个短期现象,还是长期现象?当然,现在这个问题似乎众说纷纭,包括学界、政界、市场大家意见不一致。从美联储的角度,美联储一直认为这种通胀只是一个短期暂时现象,特别是去年以来,美联储修改了货币政策的制度,推出了通货膨胀平均制度。过去美联储的通胀调控目标是2%,一旦超过2%,美联储就会比较快地收紧货币政策,因为货币政策一旦收紧,那么通胀很快就会降温。
但是,现在美联储关注一个平均通胀目标值,即美联储可以容忍一段时间的通胀上行。比如,在最近受到疫情修复、需求回升的影响,通胀出现了比较高的水平。不过,如果美联储判断它只是一个暂时现象,美联储就不会迅速收紧货币政策,这样将令通胀持续的时间更长。所以,这一点可能是货币政策和通胀的相互关系。另外一方面,我们也要看到中长期的经济结构的问题。从中长期来看,最关键的是整个宏观经济里的供需缺口。就短期来说,疫情的修复产生刺激,比如拜登政府给居民发放现金和支票的政策,会提升通胀,但是中长期来看,关键是供给能力能不能快速地提升,甚至会不会回到过去10年产能过剩的情况,这一点我想大家可能还没有定论。
从我自己的观点来说,我可能相对偏悲观一点。我觉得目前全球产业链的重构可能会经历一段比较长的时间。比如最近大家比较关注的苹果的产业链,一些东南亚国家可能是比较主要的苹果一些零部件的代工工厂,那么现在受到疫情的冲击,可能未来要去选择新的、更加安全的生产场所。这都是要花时间的。更重要的一些原材料、产品,如芯片,可能解决起来就更加复杂。
我们还要注意这些年全球对于绿色经济、环保和碳中和的关注。碳中和实际上是一个比较长期的过程。从中长期来看,主要是要靠能源革命和技术进步。但短期来看,那么碳中和可能对于一些主要的能源生产,特别是化石类的能源生产,会有一定的约束作用。因此,基于全球产业链的重构,同时又叠加了全球的绿色经济、环保、碳中和的政策诉求这二方面的因素,我觉得从短期来看,对于供给的扰动可能还会持续一段时间。
全球央行货币政策将回归“正常化”
《21世纪》:在全球通胀预期不断抬升的背景之下,一些新兴国家已经开始加息。比如巴西、俄罗斯、土耳其央行均已宣布加息,其中巴西率先在短短50天之内进行两次大幅加息,这些国家抢先加息的原因是什么?这是不是意味着全球央行大放水的时代即将终结?
明明:我自己的答案是肯定的。随着全球疫情后修复,特别是以美欧为主的发达国家经济,逐步地恢复正轨,那么全球大放水,至少放水的程度或者放水的速度,有可能很难再继续增加。美联储的QE政策,每个月购买800亿的国债和400亿的MBS(不动产抵押贷款证券),目前还是持续的,但首先不会进一步增加购债规模。而且市场的预期比较担心在今年晚些时候,甚至在明年年初,购债计划有可能会缩减。如果预期兑现的话,那么意味着以美联储为代表的发达国家央行,至少放水的速度是在下降。不是说不放水,不是说不扩表,但是至少放水的速度是在下降的。所以我自己更倾向于形容就是全球的货币政策回归一个正常化,就是正常的宽松,而不是极度宽松。
当然在这个过程当中,一些新兴市场国家,如刚才我们提到的巴西、俄罗斯、土耳其这些国家,因为这些国家的经济结构都有一些特点——外债规模比较高,经常项目长期赤字,那么这些国家本身的宏观经济结构就不稳定,就有高通胀的压力。一旦叠加发达国家的货币政策回归正常化,它就会面临比较大的资本外流的压力。那么,这个时候这些国家的央行就不得不被动地进行加息。他们跟发达国家的货币政策可能还是有些区别的,主要他们还是受到本国经济结构的影响。
下半年主要经济体增长仍在回升过程
《21世纪》:你如何展望今年下半年的全球经济?
明明:我个人还是比较乐观的,其实今年IMF和世界银行对于今年全球宏观经济的预估还是比较乐观的。首先,全球疫情终将过去,主要国家的疫情得到初步控制,当然最近新兴市场国家的疫情有些扰动,但是我想随着一系列的措施的采取,总体来说还是会得到控制,而且确实全球疫苗的进展还是比较顺利的。
基于今年的疫情得到控制的这个假设背景之下,我相信今年下半年全球的主要经济体的经济增长仍然是在回升的过程当中。
当然制约全球经济的一些中长期矛盾,如老龄化的问题、收入格局的问题、全球产业链的问题,我认为仍然没有得到解决,所以有可能在这种疫情快速恢复之后,也许在明年甚至后年的某一个时点,经济可能又会重新回到过去的一个状况,有可能经济的增长的动能又会面临不足的问题。
我觉得宏观经济可能还是要分成不同的周期来看,至少在今年下半年,包括明年年初的一段时间,我相信全球经济复苏的趋势大的方向不会改变。
但是从中长期来看,制约全球经济的一些结构性问题还是亟待解决,只有全球各国政府更快地、更好地进行合作,共同地去解决和面对这些问题,比如去解决全球产业链的问题、解决全球环境保护绿色发展的问题、解决全球地缘政治问题,如何更好地合作解决贸易争端的问题。只有这些问题得到解决,我相信全球经济可能才能迎来更长期和更大的增长。

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A federal judge on Tuesday afternoon temporarily blocked part of the Trump administration’s plans to freeze all federal aid, a policy that unleashed confusion and worry from charities and educators even as the White House said it was not as sweeping an order as it appeared.
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The short-term pause issued by US District Judge Loren L. AliKhan prevents the administration from carrying through with its plans to freeze funding for “open awards” already granted by the federal government through at least 5 p.m. ET Monday, February 3.
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The judge’s administrative stay is “a way of preserving the status quo” while she considers the challenge brought by a group of non-profits to the White House plans, AliKhan said.
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“The government doesn’t know the full scope of the programs that are going to be subject to the pause,” AliKhan said after pressing an attorney for the Justice Department on what programs the freeze would apply to. AliKhan is expected to consider a longer-term pause on the policy early next week.
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The White House budget office had ordered the pause on federal grants and loans, according to an internal memorandum sent Monday.
Federal agencies “must temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance,” White House Office of Management and Budget acting director Matthew Vaeth said in the memorandum, a copy of which was obtained by CNN, citing administration priorities listed in past executive orders.
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Trailer trucks queue to cross into the United States at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, in Tijuana, Mexico, November 27, 2024. Jorge Duenes/Reuters
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Since President Donald Trump won the election in November, businesses across the globe have been bracing for higher tariffs — a key Day One promise the president made.
But over a week into his presidency, Trump has yet to enact any new tariffs.
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That could change, come 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday — the deadline Trump set for when he says he will slap 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods.
The tariffs, he said, will be imposed as a way of punishing the three nations, which Trump claims are responsible for helping people enter the country illegally and supplying fentanyl consumed in the US.
Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he meant business, especially with his tariff threats on Mexico and Canada. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also confirmed on Friday that Trump will levy the 10% tariff on China on Saturday.
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Should these threats be believed? Yes and no, said Trump’s former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
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The threat of blanket tariffs is likely being overstated, Ross said in an interview with CNN. “There probably will be exclusions, because there are some goods that just are not made here, will not be made here, and therefore, there’s no particular point putting tariffs on.”
Ross, who was one of a handful of initial cabinet members in Trump’s first administration who kept their position for the entire four-year term, said he advocated for such exclusions when he advised Trump on tariff policies.
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Opposite a bed in central London, light filters through a stained-glass window depicting, in fragments of copper and blue, Jesus Christ.
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Three people have lived in the deserted cathedral in the past two years, with each occupant — an electrician, a sound engineer and a journalist — paying a monthly fee to live in the priest’s quarters.
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The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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Applications to become guardians are going “through the roof,” with more people in their late thirties and forties signing on than in the past, said Arthur Duke, the founder and managing director of Live-in Guardians.
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President Donald Trump speaks about the mid-air crash between American Airlines flight 5342 and a military helicopter in Washington. Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
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President Donald Trump on Thursday blamed the Federal Aviation Administration’s “diversity push” in part for the plane collision that killed 67 people in Washington, DC. But DEI backers, including most top US companies, believe a push for diversity has been good for their businesses.
Trump did not cite any evidence for how efforts to hire more minorities, people with disabilities and other groups less represented in American workforces led to the crash, saying “it just could have been” and that he had “common sense.” But Trump criticized the FAA’s effort to recruit people with disabilities during Joe Biden’s administration, even though the FAA’s Aviation Safety Workforce Plan for the 2020-2029 period, issued under Trump’s first administration, promoted and supported “the hiring of people with disabilities and targeted disabilities.”
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It’s not the first time opponents of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, or DEI, have said they can kill people. “DEI means people DIE,” Elon Musk said after the California wildfires, criticizing the Los Angeles Fire Department and city and state officials for their efforts to advance diversity in their workforces.
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The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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Get inspired by a weekly roundup on living well, made simple. Sign up for CNN’s Life, But Better newsletter for information and tools designed to improve your well-being.
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You have been brushing your teeth for most of your life, but are you sure you’re doing it right?
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Four elements are the basis of good oral hygiene: brushing twice a day with a fluoride toothpaste, flossing once a day, eating a healthy diet, and seeing a dentist regularly, said Dr. Matthew Messina, clinical associate professor at the Ohio State University College of Dentistry and a spokesperson for the American Dental Association.
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If you do those four things, you are already in a great place, he said.
Dental health is important for many reasons –– not only for fresh breath and pearly whites, but also to prevent gum and periodontal disease, which can be associated with health impacts in other parts of the body, said Dr. Michaela Gibbs, a professor and associate dean of clinical affairs and professional practice at the University of Colorado School of Dental Medicine.
Small changes to current health can make a difference to your oral health, experts said. Here’s what to do.
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Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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”To be a Freemason is to be part of a brotherhood dedicated to personal growth, service to others, and the pursuit of knowledge and truth,” the lodge wrote. Biden’s service, the statement added, “reflects the core values” of this brotherhood.
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Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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Panama’s president, Jose Raul Mulino, provided a different account of the discussion, saying after the meeting that he did not believe Mr. Rubio had conveyed a threat that Mr. Trump might move to reclaim the American-built shipping route. He said he saw little risk of such an intervention.
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But President Trump, speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland about the canal on Sunday, said that “we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen.”
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The State Department’s summary of the meeting in Panama City, Mr. Rubio’s first with a foreign leader since becoming secretary of state, struck a tone that was sometimes aggressive. It said Mr. Rubio had told his host that Mr. Trump had made a “preliminary determination” that China’s government exercised control over the canal.
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Former US President Joe Biden, a self-professed Catholic, has joined an African-American Masonic lodge as a ‘Master Mason’. The Vatican takes a dim view of Freemasonry, and Catholics who join the fraternal order face excommunication.
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Biden was inducted into the Most Worshipful Prince Hall Grand Lodge in South Carolina on Sunday, one day before he left office. In a private ceremony, the lodge’s grand master, Victor C. Major, granted Biden “Master Mason membership with full honors,” according to a statement published by the organization last weekend that circulated online on Friday.
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”To be a Freemason is to be part of a brotherhood dedicated to personal growth, service to others, and the pursuit of knowledge and truth,” the lodge wrote. Biden’s service, the statement added, “reflects the core values” of this brotherhood.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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Panama’s president, Jose Raul Mulino, provided a different account of the discussion, saying after the meeting that he did not believe Mr. Rubio had conveyed a threat that Mr. Trump might move to reclaim the American-built shipping route. He said he saw little risk of such an intervention.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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A brief history of sunglasses, from Ancient Rome to Hollywood
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Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?
The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.
Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.
When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.
We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.
In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to escalate the Trump administration’s confrontation with Panama on Sunday, telling its leader that President Trump had determined that Chinese “influence and control” over the Panama Canal threatens the waterway and demanding “immediate changes,” according to the State Department.
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Panama’s president, Jose Raul Mulino, provided a different account of the discussion, saying after the meeting that he did not believe Mr. Rubio had conveyed a threat that Mr. Trump might move to reclaim the American-built shipping route. He said he saw little risk of such an intervention.
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The State Department’s summary of the meeting in Panama City, Mr. Rubio’s first with a foreign leader since becoming secretary of state, struck a tone that was sometimes aggressive. It said Mr. Rubio had told his host that Mr. Trump had made a “preliminary determination” that China’s government exercised control over the canal.
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Sunglasses, or dark glasses, have always guarded against strong sunlight, but is there more to “shades” than we think?
The pupils of our eyes are delicate and react immediately to strong lights. Protecting them against light — even the brilliance reflected off snow — is important for everyone. Himalayan mountaineers wear goggles for this exact purpose.
Protection is partly the function of sunglasses. But dark or colored lens glasses have become fashion accessories and personal signature items. Think of the vast and famous collector of sunglasses Elton John, with his pink lensed heart-shaped extravaganzas and many others.
When did this interest in protecting the eyes begin, and at what point did dark glasses become a social statement as well as physical protection?
The Roman Emperor Nero is reported as holding polished gemstones to his eyes for sun protection as he watched fighting gladiators.
We know Canadian far north Copper Inuit and Alaskan Yupik wore snow goggles of many kinds made of antlers or whalebone and with tiny horizontal slits. Wearers looked through these and they were protected against the snow’s brilliant light when hunting. At the same time the very narrow eye holes helped them to focus on their prey.
In 12th-century China, judges wore sunglasses with smoked quartz lenses to hide their facial expressions — perhaps to retain their dignity or not convey emotions.
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, US President Donald Trump and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Getty Images
CNN
—
President Donald Trump announced that he’s pausing tariffs on Mexico and Canada after speaking to leaders of both countries on Monday — just hours before the sweeping actions were set to go into effect.
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The proposed tariffs, which Trump announced Saturday, consisted of a 25% duty on all imports from Mexico and most from Canada (there was a carve-out for a 10% tariff on energy products), and a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Trump said earlier Monday that he’d be speaking with China soon.
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Trump paused the tariffs on America’s neighbors after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made commitments, some of which they’d already made, to bolster security at their respective borders with the United States.
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“I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier Monday.
“These soldiers will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanyl, and illegal migrants into our country,” he wrote.
He took to Truth Social with a similar announcement later in the day, after Trudeau first announced the 30-day pause.
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These apes can tell when humans don’t know something, study finds
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Some great apes realize when a human partner doesn’t know something and are capable of communicating information to them to change their behavior, a new study shows.
Researchers from Johns Hopkins University studying bonobos found that they would point to where treats were hidden if they could see their human partner didn’t know where they were, according to a statement from the university, published Monday.
Working with three male bonobos, study co-author Luke Townrow, a Johns Hopkins PhD student, would sit across a table from one of the animals as another person placed a treat under one of three cups.
In some cases, Townrow would be allowed to see which cup the treat was under, and the bonobo would wait for him to pass it the food.
At other times, he would not be able to see where the treat was, and the bonobo would point to the right cup to help him find the food.
The “seemingly simple experiment that demonstrated for the first time that apes will communicate unknown information in the name of teamwork,” the statement reads.
And study co-author Chris Krupenye, a Johns Hopkins assistant professor of psychological and brain sciences, told CNN that the study “is one of the clearest pieces of evidence that a non-human primate understands when someone else is ignorant.”
This ability to intuit gaps in others’ knowledge is known as theory of mind.
“As humans we have theory of mind, the ability to think about others’ perspectives,” Krupenye told CNN on Tuesday.
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From fiery festivals to nature's most dazzling "sky-dance", interest in the night skies is booming, with "noctourism" poised to be a major travel trend in 2025.
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
Here are five of Vermillon's favourite after-dark experiences, from fiery cultural festivals to nature's greatest sky dance.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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Interest in the night skies is booming. Booking.com recently named "noctourism" as a top travel trend for 2025, with their survey of more than 27,000 travellers finding that around two-thirds have considered going to "darker sky destinations" to experience things like starbathing (lying down and looking at the night skies) and witnessing once-in-a-lifetime cosmic events.
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"The cool thing about night adventures is you see so many different sides to a destination, by just staying up late or rising early," says Stephanie Vermillon, author of the new book 100 Nights Of A Lifetime: The World's Ultimate Adventures After Dark. "Our senses are heightened, and there are things you see at night that you don't see any other time, so everything feels exciting and new."
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It was a 2010 trip to Morocco that sparked Vermillon's interest in all things nocturnal. "I grew up in Dayton, Ohio, which has terrible light pollution," she tells the BBC. "Then I went to the Sahara Desert and camped under the stars – I saw the Milky Way and two dozen shooting stars that night. I went home, took an astronomy class and later started hunting Northern Lights, which got me curious about what else happens around the world after dark."
Vermillon believes that major events such as the April 2024 total solar eclipse or the 2024-2025 peak in aurora activity has led to a "bump" in the number of people wanting to experience dark skies. There are also now more than 200 Dark Sky Reserves across the globe. "The great thing about the night sky is the perspective it gives you – it's humbling and grounding," she says. "You can experience pure awe."
Starry skies and aurora borealis might be the headline acts, but there's plenty more to do after dark in cities or out in nature. "You see a city so differently at night," Vermillon says. "I think of it as a city letting its hair down – it's more relaxed. I've also done night safaris, where it's more about listening than just seeing, and I've seen water sparkling with bioluminescence, which looks like magic. Everything at night has a little extra sparkle."
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Thieves have stolen four ancient artifacts, including an approximately 2,500-year-old gold helmet, after using explosives to break into a museum in the Netherlands.
The daring heist took place at Drents Museum in Assen during the early hours of Saturday morning, according to Dutch police, who said they received a report of an explosion at 3:45 a.m. local time.
CCTV footage released by police shows the suspects opening an exterior door before a blast sends sparks and smoke into the air. The thieves made off with three gold bracelets, dating from around 50 BC, as well as the 5th-century BC Helmet of Cotofenesti, a historically important artifact on loan from the National History Museum of Romania in Bucharest.
The items were part of an exhibition about the Dacians, an ancient society that occupied much of present-day Romania before being conquered by the Romans. On show since July, “Dacia: Empire of Gold and Silver” featured treasures borrowed from institutions across Romania.
In a press release on its website, Drents Museum described the Helmet of Cotofenesti — which was discovered in a Romanian village almost a century ago — as a “masterpiece.” Its design features mythological scenes and a pair of eyes, located above the wearers’, that were thought to deter enemies during battle while protecting against the “evil eye.”
The exhibition was set to conclude Sunday, though Drents Museum remained closed through the weekend due to the robbery. Its premises were damaged by the explosion, though no injuries were reported, the museum said.
Dutch police announced that they are working with global police agency Interpol and had, as of Sunday, received more than 50 tip-offs. Investigators are currently looking for information about a gray car that was stolen from the nearby city of Alkmaar earlier in the week and was discovered around four miles from the crime scene, on fire, shortly after the overnight heist.
Tbilisi, Georgia — Jailed journalist Mzia Amaghlobeli gets weaker every day as her hunger strike has reached three weeks in Rustavi, a town near the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, her lawyer says. Now the 49-year-old is having difficulty walking the short distance from her cell to the room where they usually meet, and human rights officials, colleagues and family fear for her life.
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The political turmoil follows a parliamentary election that was won by the ruling Georgian Dream party, although its opponents allege the vote was rigged.
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То есть работает в интересах российского преступного сообщества, пытающегося нажиться на предпринимателях, столкнувшихся с незаконными, часто заказными претензиями со стороны российских правоохранительных органов.
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Уроженец Калуги Алистаров отсидел четыре года в лагере – за продажу наркотиков детям.
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Канал Алистарова «Железная ставка» – «разоблачение» неправильных (по мнению криминалитета) финансовых проектов и продвижение «правильных»: пирамид и онлайн-казино, спонсирующих Алистарова.
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Обычно Алистаров начинает с попытки вымогательства – представляет жертве компромат и предлагает заплатить. Если жертва отказывается, в ход идут травля и насилие.
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До этого Алистаров снял 12 роликов, где подсвечивал адрес этого предпринимателя, публиковал незаконно полученную информацию о его близких и его бизнесах в ОАЭ. Безо всякого стеснения использовал подглядывание, подслушивание, незаконное проникновение, вмешательство в частную жизнь – все то, что в Эмиратах, где строго соблюдается неприкосновенность имущества и жизни инвесторов, является тяжким уголовным преступлением.
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Алистаров рассказывал, что заявил на предпринимателя в Интерпол и правоохранительные органы ОАЭ – якобы он помогает правоохранительным органам. Но это почему-то не привело к аресту предпринимателя – может быть, потому, что полиция ОАЭ не видит криминала в его деятельности?
Ряд партнеров предпринимателя осуждены в России, сам он в розыске российских правоохранительных органов – но не осужден. Иностранные правоохранительные органы не имеют к нему претензий.
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