周一（5月24日）美元指数(89.7702, -0.0630, -0.07%)在90这一关口附近徘徊，尾盘下跌0.21%至89.83，略高于上周五触及的四个月低位89.646。10年期美国国债收益率下降1.7个基点至1.60%，10年期盈亏平衡通胀率接近持平，报2.45%。
自3月底以来，被视为避险资产的美元一直在稳步回落，因市场对复苏持乐观态度。不过，最近这种跌势似乎有所放缓，因交易员开始预期，当美联储对通胀上升的迹象做出反应时，美国利率将会上升。
富国银行的Brendan McKenna表示，预计美元指数支撑位在89.44。
Brown Brothers Harriman汇市策略全球主管Win Thin周一早间写道：“市场不得不开始消化未来美联储立场会略偏鹰派的预期。”周五将公布的美国个人消费和通胀等数据，可能会推动市场预期美联储在6月15-16日的下次政策会议上基调会更加鹰派。不过，就目前而言，Thin称，“随着本周的交易拉开帷幕，美元将面临一些温和的压力。”
由于全球复苏正在加快，现在策略师们正试图预测，与美国可能的速度相比，其他国家的收益率将以多快速度上升。
交易商也在关注美国新刺激计划的进展，白宫周五表示，它已将基础建设法案规模从2.25万亿美元缩减至1.7万亿美元，但共和党人认为这些改动不足以达成协议。
欧元(1.2225, 0.0010, 0.08%)兑美元
上涨0.28%，至1.2216，
欧元兑美元
自3月以来已上涨约4%，因欧洲在疫苗接种和重振经济方面正在赶上美国。风险偏好情绪出现更广泛的改善，交易员提到欧元看涨期权有持续的买需；关注1.2245附近的双重顶。
高盛Michael Cahill建议投资者做多欧元兑瑞郎(0.8963, -0.0001, -0.01%)(1.0954, 0.0002, 0.02%)，目标为1.14，因对欧洲经济增长前景的信心上升；欧元兑瑞郎上涨0.17%至1.0956瑞郎。
英镑(1.4171, 0.0019, 0.13%)在G-10货币中涨幅最小，上涨不到0.1%。
美元兑加元(1.2043, -0.0003, -0.02%)
下跌0.18%至1.2044，油价上涨支撑了加元。
纽元兑美元
上涨0.50%至0.7210，花旗集团Osamu Takashima预计纽元近期有下跌风险；预计今年晚些时候将跌破1美元兑0.75纽元。
周二前瞻
19：40 2021年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯就经济前景发表讲话
22：00 欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩在彼得森国际经济研究所发表讲话
机构观点汇总
美债策略师预计实际利率有进一步上升空间
美国利率策略师在周研究报告中将关注重点放在盈亏平衡通胀率上， 美国银行、巴克莱、高盛等数家金融机构均认为实际利率有上升空间。机构对美联储缩减资产购买规模和加息的时间表仍存争议。
美国银行预计盈亏平衡通胀率还有进一步上升空间，特别是如果资产管理公司正在为更高的通货膨胀率部署仓位时，但是随着美联储开始讨论减码政策，实际利率有更大上行潜力。实际利率曲线很可能在年底前趋于平缓。当核心通货膨胀率超过2%时，大宗商品和通胀保值国债对股票资产的互补作用会好于美国国债，这支持了我们对盈亏平衡通胀率的建设性观点。
花旗分析师Jabaz Mathai表示，我们预计随着更高通货膨胀率出现，短端利率风险溢价将在进入宽松减码期时增加。在4月份强劲的CPI数据公布后，即使考虑到美联储的平均通胀目标框架，欧洲美元的风险溢价可能还会升高。
高盛 Praveen Korapaty指出，由于市场似乎尚未要求适当的实际风险溢价，中期（以及更长期限）的实际收益率远期或向上重估。但是，短期名义利率仍然是我们目前首选的宏观敞口。在美联储会议纪要提到官员们会在未来几次会议讨论缩减购债规模后，5年期实际收益率增幅超过10年期实际收益率，这表明其造成更大影响的可能是对加息和政策路径的重估，较小影响长期收益率溢价。
澳洲联邦银行：本周澳元(0.7756, 0.0005, 0.06%)兑美元可能小幅走高
澳洲联邦银行表示，
澳元兑美元
本周可能继续小幅走高，该货币对将在第二季度末之前达到0.80的水平，与基本面相比，现在的澳元被低估了。澳洲联邦银行表示，在我们看来，与其他发达经济体相比，澳大利亚的疫苗接种起步缓慢，这可能是澳元最近面临的阻力。但是，如果大型疫苗接种中心的开设能够提高澳大利亚的疫苗接种率，那么它们可能会在一定程度上支持澳元。
新西兰联储本周将再发布决议，措辞转向鹰派将助纽元重新企稳
新西兰联储本周将发布政策决议，而新西兰经济研究协会的研究员在模疑了联储的决策流程后认为，该国货币政策决策层当前仍将维持现状，但新西兰联储可能会借机暗示在未来缩减乃至停止购债行动的前景，而在结束购债之后其则将进入加息周期。
研究人士指出，虽然短期内新西兰联储仍会维持政策力度，但是该国楼市出现泡沫，以及整体通胀率走升的状况已经开始引起货币政策决策层的顾虑，如此消息一经市场咀嚼发酵，料对纽元汇价起到一定的支撑力度。短线纽元汇价支撑位暂看60日均线切入位0.7150和前低0.7116，而反弹行情如果能成功上破0.7250，则有望结束当前的盘整重拾中期上行趋势。
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