
华夏时报(www.chinatimes.net.cn)记者 王永菲 冉学东 北京报道
这位来自萨尔瓦多自诩为“地球上最时髦和最英俊的总统”Nayib Bukele(下称“布克尔”),一时间成为全世界关注的焦点。
1981年出生的布克尔一直以来就特立独行,不走寻常路,他是信奉前美国总统特拉普“推特治国”的拥护者。6月9日,在宣布萨尔瓦多将成为全世界首个将比特币作为法币的国家后,不少加密货币爱好者俨然将这位勇敢的总统视为比特币的“救世主”,与萨尔瓦多在西班牙中的意思一样。
批准比特币作为法币的提案,也陆续引起了巴拿马以及汤加等以美元主要交易货币的国家支持热情。“离上帝太远,离美国太近”是概括当下中美洲各国的现实处境的完美写照。并不发达的中美洲,当地国家能按照本国既定路线发展的空间十分有限。
多种法币并行
在宣布萨尔瓦多正式将比特币作为法币后,萨尔瓦多科郎、美元以及比特币。截至目前,萨尔瓦多的生产交易中90%以上使用的都是美元结算。不过该《比特币法案》将在90天后生效。
中央财经大学中国互联网经济研究院副院长欧阳日辉向本报记者分析,该国经济体不大,对国际经济以及货币体系冲击或较小。但是对该国的货币体系将造成较大的冲击,一是有可能冲垮该国的货币体系;二是有可能该国的商品形成多种标价体系,一种是以该国法币或美元为标价,一种是以比特币为标价。
布克尔提交给国会的议案中提到采用比特币作为萨尔瓦多法币的原因中,多条提到了金融的普惠性。比如“大约百分之七十的人口没有机会获得传统的金融服务“、”国家有义务促进其公民的金融普惠性,以更好的保障他们的权利”等。
“为促进国家经济增长,有必要批准授权一种数字货币的流通,其价值完全符合自由市场的标准,以增加国家财富,使最多的居民受益。”布克尔在提案中写道。
在萨尔瓦多通过的《比特币法案》中,比特币与美元之间的汇率将由市场自由确定;价格可以用比特币计价;税收可以用比特币支付;比特币交易将不会被征收资本利得税,就像任何法定货币一样;每个经济体当获得商品或者服务者向他们提供比特币支付时,必须接受。
比特币的交易相对于现金来说较为复杂且昂贵,考虑到部分民众无法使用比特币交易,在过渡性条款中还提到,由于众所周知的事实,无法进行比特币交易的民众可以不接受比特币支付。萨尔瓦多还将通过萨尔瓦多发展银行建立信托基金保证比特币与美元的自动即时兑换。
萨尔瓦多的经济交易主要使用现金,大约70%的人没有银行账户或信用卡。萨尔瓦多作为一个数字化支付并不普及的国家,使用比特币作为法币,势必只是少部分富人的游戏。
据了解,汇款或移民寄回家的钱占萨尔瓦多国内生产总值的20%以上。对于这些国际转账,现有服务可能会收取10%或更多的费用,有时可能需要数天才能到达。这或许也是萨尔瓦多尝试接受比特币作为法币支付的原因之一。
天方夜谭还是寻求货币自由?
萨尔瓦多共和国是中美洲人口最密集的国家,截至2019年,该国总人口670.5万,萨尔瓦多国内经济以农业为主,主要盛产咖啡豆和棉花,工业基础薄弱;萨尔瓦多国内黑帮众多,每年都有上千人死于黑帮的谋杀。总统布克尔作为中东后裔、商人世家出身,也是一个“政治实用主义者”,这位总统不是徒有其表,能使得萨尔瓦多在复杂的国际环境中谋得立足和发展之地,拥护者众多。
萨尔瓦多以比特币作为法币的做法,也引得许多专家学者对此发表见解。
中国银行前执行董事、董事会风险政策委员会委员及副行长王永利表示:“这些没有本国主权货币的小国,早几年就对加密货币抱有幻想,并尝试推出自己的加密货币。2018年委内瑞拉也曾号称采用以太坊加密技术推出过“石油币”,但这并不现实。以比特币等完全去中心化的数字加密资产作为法定货币,必将因其本身价格大起大落而严重扰乱经济社会运行,国家没有任何调控手段(这还不像使用英镑(1.4150, -0.0025, -0.18%)或美元等主要国家的货币,尚有货币当局对其货币一定程度的调控),果真如此,只能是自寻死路。”
王永利解释道,比特币一类总量与阶段性增量完全由系统锁定,不能根据交易财富的变化而调整的所谓去中心“加密货币”,不仅本身运行效率太低,更重要的是其根本上就违反货币必然从实物货币转化为信用货币的发展逻辑与规律,不可能成为真正的流通货币,不可能颠覆或取代主权(法定)货币,而只能是一种特殊的虚拟资产或虚拟商品。
王永利还强调,因为萨尔瓦多宣布用比特币作为法定货币,就认为加密货币成为法定货币的预言终于实现了,就认为这是比特币或加密货币重大的历史时刻,其实就像对委内瑞拉“石油币”一样,实在是期望过高了。以比特币等加密资产作为法定货币是没有前景的。
NGC Ventures 创始合伙人谷涛分析:“支持比特币作为法定货币的意思是萨尔瓦多的国民在其国内可以用比特币进行交易和支付,具体方案是用了比特币的闪电网络。这个事情的重点是利用了比特币来取代银行的Core Banking系统。不过要能做到手机上随时随地支付,需要后面的整套银行系统支持,而且不是一个银行,是全国银行都要采取一个标准。”
谷涛举例说到:“此前新加坡以举国之力研发了project Ubin来联通本地银行,用了5年才在新加坡实现类似支付宝的手机点对点支付,支付给了IBM之类的系统集成商上亿美金。而新加坡是全球最富裕的国家之一,有能力有资金。但是萨尔瓦多利用比特币来代替Core Banking系统其实就是接近零成本实现了新加坡花了5年上亿美金实现的效果。最终表现方式应该是美元标价,比特币支付,部分比特币又被换回美元。
而关于《比特币法案》中提到的,比特币并不是唯一的法定货币,美元将继续以法币存在。
“这部分指的是国际结算。除非等到南美国家都用比特币,国家之间用比特币结算,在此之前国际贸易还是使用美元。”谷涛表示。
谷涛分析,作为央行,国内收支是比特币,国外收支是美元,需要对风险敞口进行总体对冲。这个做法其实跟发行自己本国货币是一样的。但是使用比特币的好处在于,对于萨尔瓦多来说,比特币的共识和权威已经完全可以媲美本国信用,搭上比特币的顺风车既节省印刷成本还节省人力成本。一旦其他国家跟进,将形成正向循环。
最新消息显示,萨尔瓦多还对外公布,拥有3个比特币就可以成为萨尔瓦多的公民。这对比特币信仰者有一定的吸引力,没准还能吸引来自全球的矿场与矿工。

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She’d dreamed of living in France for years, but according to Janice Deerwester, originally from Texas, life always seemed to get in the way.
In 2021, Janice, who has been a widow since 2012, found herself lying on her bed with the lyrics to “Is That All There Is?,” a song about dissatisfaction that was a hit for country singer Peggy Lee back in 1969, playing in her head.
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Realizing that she wanted more from life, Janice decided there and then that she would relocate to Fontainebleau — the French town she’d had her heart set on since a 2018 visit. Less than a year later, at the age of 70, she did just that.
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