汇市分析|美联储半年度报告:若通胀预期持续偏高可改变货币政策

2021年07月12日 9440点热度 17人点赞 2,016条评论
基本面
  
美指
美联储半年度报告:若通胀预期持续偏高可改变货币政策
上周五,美联储向国会提交半年度货币政策报告。报告称,将继续提供强力支持,若通胀预期持续偏高可改变货币政策。
   
黄金
欧洲央行纪要:将继续维持宽松货币政策
欧洲央行6月货币政策会议纪要显示,欧元区经济处于复苏边缘,欧洲央行未来仍将维持宽松的货币政策。纪要还显示,官员们普遍认为2023年通胀预期有上行风险,美国通胀可能是欧元区的一种预兆,但在紧要关头收紧可能危及正在进行的经济复苏和通胀前景。欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔表示,欧元区的通胀不太可能超标。
   
技术面
  
美元指数
市场行情整理: 
美元指数上周五先涨后跌,险跌破92关口,最终收报92.10,收跌0.27%。
  
观点整理:
美元指数还有延续下跌的意识形态,但美元指数如果真的就此一蹶不振,所引起的连锁反应也必定不小,
  
黄金
市场行情整理: 
上周五,现货黄金波动上行,美盘后短线拉升,一度站上1810美元/盎司,最终收涨0.32%,报1807.90美元/盎司;
   
观点整理:
黄金站上1800关口,这可以被认为是对多头的一大利好,日内有可能继续稳步上涨,但是多头对美联储的鹰派立场心有余悸,美元指数也处在上升趋势之中,因此黄金上涨可能面临较大的阻力。建议保守者暂时观望,激进者逢低做多。
   
原油
市场行情整理: 
国际油价方面,WTI原油期货高歌猛进,截至收盘,WTI原油收涨1.95%,报74.67美元/桶;布伦特原油收涨1.64%,报75.56美元/桶。
   
观点整理:
油价两连涨,重新站上10日均线,显示多头仍然占据盘面主动,日内不排除进一步上涨的可能。目前基本面仍然维持供需紧平衡状态,这支撑油价继续上涨,不过需提防美伊谈判的进展以及OPEC+方面释放的消息,这将对油价造成巨大影响。建议保守者观望,激进者逢低做多

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