
市场概述:周一(3月26日)欧市盘中,市场风险情绪降温,美国股市全线低开,且早盘扩大跌幅,纳斯达克指数纳指跌幅达1%。在美元强势、美债收益率整体仍然维持在高位之际,金价遭遇大幅抛售,最多暴跌近30美元,一度跌破1710关口。
分析指出,眼下,市场情绪还是受到Archegos Capital的惨烈暴动所冲击。周一美股早盘,恐慌指标VIX涨幅超过10%……
消息面来看,根据FX168此前报道,AJ Bell投资总监Russ Mould表示。“受到危机打击的对冲基金Archegos Capital,以及在接到追加保证金通知后贱卖中国科技股和美国媒体股的举动,可能会在市场上引发一些紧张情绪。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)和野村证券(Nomura)都警告称,这一事件的后果将对市场造成冲击。这提醒了投资者全球金融体系的内在联系,以及一旦出现问题,这种联系将如何造成危机蔓延的风险。
上周五,财经媒体报道称,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)出售了大量股票,其中包括ViacomCBS 、Discovery以及中国股票百度和腾讯音乐。据英国《金融时报》报道,此次大宗拍卖预计价值约200亿美元。
Caxton Business的高级市场分析师Michael Brown表示:“上周中期,Viacom等公司的股价开始下跌,对Archegos来说,情况开始变得不妙。”“正是在那个时候,投行要求追加保证金,但期无法提供,因此出现了上周五的大宗交易。”
zerohedge称,目前市场关注的两个问题是:1)Archegos还会抛售多少股票?其他对冲基金同伴呢?2)这次的危机到底有多严重?随着越来越多的经纪商发出紧急追加保证金通知,清算链将延伸到多大范围?
黄金:在美元强势有望再度挑战93关口,以及美债收益率维持在高位之际,金价今天遭遇猛烈抛售,一度跌破1710关口,最低触及1705.58美元/盎司。
FXTM高级研究分析师Lukman Otunuga表示:“在目前水平,黄金技术面是偏看空的,在上周收低于1730美元/盎司水平后,金价可能测试1700,甚至可能跌破该水平。”
Forexlive的货币策略主管Adam Button也表示,黄金要关注美元的表现。“还没到重新入场黄金的时候,美元有了很多积极的信号,这对黄金是非常不利的。”
日内焦点、风向标:
Archegos爆仓事件的冲击波
主要货币走势分析:
欧元(1.1873, 0.0001, 0.01%):周一欧市盘中,欧元/美元震荡下跌,技术面,欧元/美元需要站上1.1810,才能摆脱其看跌潜力,而跌破1.1760应该为下滑至1.1700下方打开大门。
英镑(1.3819, -0.0003, -0.02%):周一欧市盘中,英镑/美元冲高回落,技术面,英镑/美元多头在1.3840区域附近短暂停顿,该阻力位位于近期跌幅1.4002-1.3671的50%斐波那契回撤。如果英镑/美元持续走软,可能会加速回落至日内波动低点1.3755附近。
日元:周一欧市盘中,美元/日元扳回跌幅,技术面,美元/日元似乎已经准备好突破2020年5月的波动高点附近的中间阻力,接近109.85区域,并试图重新收复心理关口110.00。

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